Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute

Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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R. K. Pachauri

12 August 2013Joensuu, Finland

Climate Change and Bio-economy – Challenges and Opportunities

The tragedy of the commons develops in this way. Picture a pasture open to all. It is to be expected that each herdsman will try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons. Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for centuries because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying capacity of the land. Finally, however, comes the day of reckoning, that is, the day when the long-desired goal of social stability becomes a reality. At this point, the inherent logic of the commons remorselessly generates tragedy.

-Garrett Hardin

In the 1970s, Georgescu-Roegen coined the term bioeconomics for a new approach in economics: "The term is intended to make us bear in mind continuously the biological origin of the economic process and thus spotlight the problem of mankind's existence with a limited store of accessible resources, unevenly located and unequally appropriated"

Sustainable development

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“Sustainable

development is

development that

meets the needs of the

present without

compromising the

ability of future

generations to meet

their own needs.”

Source : Brundtland Report, 1987, UN

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125,000 years ago…

The polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period

… which led to reductions in polar ice volume and sea level rise of 4 to 6 m .

Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.

Warming Of The Climate System Is Unequivocal

Source : IPCC

Understanding climate change

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Causes of change

Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004

CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004

Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations

Source : IPCC

Global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 1970 to 2004

7Source : IPCC

Some key findings of the SREX

Source: IPCC

Changes in extreme events:

heavy precipitation

Warm/cold daily temperature extremes

Heat waves

Sea level rise

Some scenarios show that a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions.

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Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts

Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply meters of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas

20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C

Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation

Source: IPCC

Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts

Fatalities are higher in developing countries

10Source : IPCC

From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred indeveloping countries

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Adaptation and Mitigation

“Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts;

however, they can complement each other and

together can significantly reduce the risks of climate

change”

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Source : IPCC

“There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that

could […] reduce emissions below current levels”

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What is REDD Plus?

REDD + is a financial instrument to incentivize conservation and sustainable management of forests and thereby reducing GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradationUnderlying objectives:

Compensating the forest owners in developing countries for conserving forests by putting a value on the forest carbon stocks

The countries conserving forests forgo the economic gain of harvesting them as well as the benefits from alternative land use and hence need to be compensated for the sameCosts involved in conservation and SMF needs to be shared by other countries as the forests provide a range of offsite ecosystem services that benefit all

Given the livelihood linkage of forests in many developing countries, forest conservation imposes several direct and indirect costs

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Co-benefits of mitigation

Common drivers lie behind mitigation policies and policies addressing economic development, poverty, health, employment, energy security, and local environmental protection

Linking policies provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies reducing greenhouse gases mitigation costs

Source : IPCC

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Development And Mitigation

Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution

Increased energy security

More rural employment

Increased agricultural production

Reduced pressure on natural ecosystems

Promising policies will capitalize on synergies between climate protection and development priorities to advance both simultaneously.

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Rio +20 and climate change mitigation

The Future We Want

§191 “ […] Significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of glob annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.”

Heads of State and Government at Rio +20 :

• call for the widest possible cooperation by all countries for an effective and appropriate international response, to reduce global GHGs

• Recognize the importance of mobilizing funding to support:

• nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs),

• adaptation measures, • technology development and transfer and• capacity building in developing

countries.

Source : UN

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Rio +20 critical issue: Energy

The Future We Want

§128 “[…] We recognize that improving energy efficiency, increasing the share of renewable energy, cleaner and energy-efficient technologies are important for sustainable development, including in addressing climate change.”

Source : UN

Overcoming barriers

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A significant increase in the deployment of RE by 2030, 2050 and beyond is indicated in the majority of the 164 scenarios reviewed in this SRREN. However:

A transition to higher shares of RE would imply increasing investments in technologies and infrastructure

Policies play a crucial role in accelerating the deployment of RE technologies.

Policies include regulations, financial incentives, public finance mechanisms and carbon pricing mechanisms.

Source : IPCC SRREN

‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment

Systemic Overview of Bio-energy Production

Schematic View of Commercial Bio-energy Routes

Processing of

Bio-fuels

Problems Can’t Be Solved At The Level of Awareness That Created Them

- Albert Einstein

The difficulty, is not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones

-John Maynard Keynes