Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

19
Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN Integration and the ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS) Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat High-Level Seminar on ACSS Strategic Plan 2016-2020 Bogor, Indonesia, 17-18 June 2014

description

Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN Integration and the ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS ). Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat High-Level Seminar on ACSS Strategic Plan 2016-2020 Bogor, Indonesia, 17-18 June 2014. The Mandate. Blueprints: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Page 1: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN Integration and the ASEAN

Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS)

Dr Melanie MiloASEAN Integration Monitoring Office

ASEAN Secretariat

High-Level Seminar on ACSS Strategic Plan 2016-2020Bogor, Indonesia, 17-18 June 2014

Page 2: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

The Mandate

o Blueprints:o ASEC shall monitor and review the implementation

of the Blueprintso ASEC shall develop and adopt indicators and

systems to monitor and assess the progress of implementation

oMid-term review to be undertaken when necessary

Page 3: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

ASEC Monitoring Tools

ASCC Scorecard

ASCC Blueprint

Implementation Monitoring

System

ASCC

AEC Scorecard

AISR

AEC

AIMR

AEC High-Impact indicators

ASRSectoral

level outcomes

Goal / Impact

Intermediate Outcome

Immediate Outcome

Output

Activity

Input

Compliance/ Implementation

Monitoring system

General Outcome

Result/ Out-

come -based

Monitoring

system

ACPMS

MDG

Cross Sector

AFIR

AISATSR

Page 4: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Who is monitoring the AEC Blueprint?o AIMO

o Input, Activity, and Output level: AEC Scorecardo Outcome and Impact: AEC High Impact Indicatorso Outcome: Monitoring and Surveillance Report

o ASEANstatso ERIA

o Studies to Further Improve the AEC Scorecard (2010, 2011, 2012, 2014)

o Focused on key areaso Questionnaires and surveys

Page 5: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Key Mandate of AIMO Establishment of ASEAN Integration Monitoring

Office (AIMO) in 2010 by the ASEAN Finance Ministers

Key mandate: strengthen regional economic surveillance and monitoring of the AEC to support the integration process

AIMO also serves as the policy support unit of the AEC Department within ASEC, with support from the Statistical Division (ASEANstats)

Page 6: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

How does AIMO monitor the AEC?Monitor the compliance of AEC commitments through the AEC Scorecard

ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY

Page 7: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

How does AIMO monitor the AEC? Development of monitoring reports and technical papers on various

initiatives under the AECMonitoring Reports Frequency/ Contents Data/ Indicators Used ASEAN Surveillance Report (ASR)

Annual; macro and financial developments; progress monitoring of AEC

Macro/surveillance data (real, monetary, fiscal, external, corporate sector data); AEC compliance scorecard; trade integration indicators

ASEAN Financial Integration Report (AFIR)

Annual; assessment of financial sector integration initiatives and measures

Financial integration indicators (quantity and price-based); simple gravity/econometric models; AEC compliance scorecard

ASEAN Investment Surveillance Report (AISR)

Annual; FDI developments and trends (global and regional); FDI policy issues and challenges

FDI indicators; AEC compliance scorecard; trade costs and business performance indicators

ASEAN Insurance Report (AIS)

Annual; insurance market developments and trends; policy issues

Insurance market indicators; macro data

ASEAN Integration Monitoring Report* (AIMR)

Annual; developments and trends on regional trade in goods, services, investment, and facilitation; assessment of policy issues

AEC high impact indicators; trade gravity/econometric models

ASEAN Trade in Services Report* (ATSR)

Annual; assessment of trade in services trends and developments; restrictiveness index; actual services regulations

ASEAN services trade database

*new reports prepared in collaboration with the World Bank; first AIMR to be completed in October 2012; first ATSR to be completed in 1Q 2013.

Page 8: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

How does AIMO monitor the AEC? Development of monitoring tools/indicators and databases on regional

economic integration (e.g., AEC high-impact indicators)

Page 9: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?o ASEAN Community Statistical System (ACSS)

o ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS) and ASEAN Briefo Reports the General Outcomes of ASEAN integration

initiatives, both under the AEC and ASCCo ACPMS 2007 and ASEAN Brief 2007 – first issueo ACPMS 2012 and ASEAN Brief 2012 – second

issue

Page 10: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

o Started with the ASEAN Base Line Report (ABR) in 2005o Monitor the programme and initiatives under the

Vientiane Action Programme (VAP)o Measuring progress at programme levelo More than 300 indicators were introduced and

base lines were setupo Difficulty in synthesizing the overall integration

progress

How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?

Page 11: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

o ACPMS 2007, first issueo Received support and commitment from the then

AHSOM (ACSS)o Published and disseminated to the public at the

ASEAN Summit in Singapore, 2009o Different focus

o Reports the general outcomes of integrationo Mostly outcome indicatorso 46 indicators: 21 AEC indicators and 26 ASCC indicators

How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?

Page 12: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

o ACPMS 2012, second issueo Published and disseminated to the public through a

press release in 4 AMSs and ASECo Broader framework

o Enhanced the Frameworko 57 indicators: 29 AEC indicators and 28 ASCC indicators

How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?

Page 13: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Framework: Monitoring the AEC• Free flow of goods

• Free flow of services• Free flow of investment• Freer flow of capital• Free flow of skilled labour

Single market and production base

Competitive economic region

Equitable economic development

Integration into the global economy

Income convergence; Productivity convergence; Intra-ASEAN tourism; Price convergence; Intra-ASEAN trade in goods; Tariff reduction; Trade facilitation; Intra-ASEAN trade in services; Services trade liberalization; Intra-ASEAN FDI; Corporate tax rate; Convergence in financial returns; Convergence in skilled labour wages.

Global competitiveness index; Technological capacity (science and tech graduates, R&D expenditures, researchers per population, telephone subscribers); Science & technical publications; Innovation (patent and trademark applications); Technological capability (high tech exports)

ASEAN6:CLMV ratios of income per capita, intra-ASEAN trade, and intra-ASEAN FDI, Cost of business start up.

Extra-ASEAN trade in goods, extra-ASEAN inward FDI, extra-ASEAN tourism arrivals

Page 14: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Framework: Monitoring ASCC• Education• Human resource and

entrepreneurshipHuman development

• Poverty• Income distribution• Health

Social welfare and protection

Social justice and rights

Ensuring environmental sustainability

Building ASEAN Identity

Narrowing the development gap

HDI, education, literacy, school enrolment.

Poverty, income inequality, life expectancy, child mortality, underweight children, government expenditure on health, incidence of diseases .

Female employment-to-population ratio, youth employment-to-population ratio

Carbon emission, CFC consumption, transboundary haze, extent of protected area and forest cover, access to improved drinking and sanitary facility.

(not available)

ASEAN6:CLMV gaps in income distribution, life expectancy, child mortality, literacy, school enrolment, educational attainment.

Page 15: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Single Market and Production Base• AEC 5.3: Intra-industry trade

– As economies become more integrated the value of intra-industry trade index would increase

• AEC 7: Cost to export and import one container of goods (from World Bank’s Doing Business)– One important measure of facilitating the establishment of

a single market is through trade facilitation. Trade facilitation should lead to a lower cost of exporting and importing goods

Example of ACPMS Indicators and the

Rationale

Page 16: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Single Market and Production Base• AEC 12: Convergence in interest rates

– Real interest rates represent the real price of capital. As the capital markets of AMSs become more integrated, financial capital will flow more freely, and will be reflected in the tendency for the real interest rates to become more equal over time.

• AEC 14: Convergence in government bond yields– With more integrated capital markets, there will be a

tendency of a co-movement in AMSs government bond yields.

Example of ACPMS Indicators and the

Rationale

Page 17: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Way forward AIMO is working towards developing a unified outcomes-based

regional integration monitoring mechanism.– A brainstorming workshop was funded by the EU-ARISE on

improving the current regional monitoring integration system last week.

• Combination of international experts on regional integration monitoring mechanisms and the desk officers.

– Other ongoing TAs – Anchor the preparation of the ASEAN Integration Report;

accompanying volume to the ACPMS • Important to effectively communicate the AEC in the lead-up to

2015• A critical element of the AEC post-2015 agenda in order to

inform and guide the process towards deepening regional economic integration in the next 10 years (AEC 2025)

Page 18: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

Data Requirements• With clear framework and rationale, data needs can

be specifically defined:– Choice of indices/targets/indicators– Quantitative measures have to be specified in terms of key

features, characteristics and data requirements• Data sources: not limited to primary sources (data

that are already available in ASEAN Secretariat and collected from NSOs); include secondary sources (from multilateral organisations such as the World Bank, IMF, UNCTAD, OECD)

Page 19: Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat

THANK YOU