Dr. Joni L. Swanson Assistant Superintendent for Curriculum and Instruction Geneseo CUSD #228
Dr. Larry Swanson
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Transcript of Dr. Larry Swanson
Trends and Factors Affecting Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business SuccessEconomies and Business Success
in Western Montanain Western Montana
Dr. Larry SwansonDr. Larry SwansonO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West
The University of MontanaThe University of Montana
Status of Economic Recovery
Population Growth and Aging
Recent and Future Job Growth Patterns
Positioning for Growth and Change
Montana Business Success ForumMontana Business Success Forum
Missoula, MT, May, 2013Missoula, MT, May, 2013
Trends and Factors Affecting Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business SuccessEconomies and Business Success
in Western Montanain Western Montana
Dr. Larry SwansonDr. Larry SwansonO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West
The University of MontanaThe University of Montana
Status of Economic Recovery
Population Growth and Aging
Recent and Future Job Growth Patterns
Positioning for Growth and Change
Montana Business Success ForumMontana Business Success Forum
Missoula, MT, May, 2013Missoula, MT, May, 2013
Unemployment Rates for Montana vs. the U.S. as a whole The chart shows monthly unemployment rates for Montana versus nationally over a very long period covering the ‘80s, ‘90s, and since 2000. The nation seems to experience a major recession, or economic slowdown, about every ten years. The current one officially started in December of 2007. Unemployment nationally hit a peak in October of 2009 when it reached 10.0%. It has been ratcheting down since and fell to as low as 7.5% in April of 2013, which is the most recent data. Unemployment in Montana has consistently remained below national unemployment and reached a peak of 6.8% in July of 2010 where it remained for several months. It was 6.7% in August of 2011. The last time Montana had unemployment this high was in the late ‘80s. More recently unemployment in Montana has been falling, and was 5.6% in March, 2013, a full two percentage points lower than nationally.
Based upon monthly unemployment data, there is evidence of slow economic recovery nationally since late in 2009. While unemployment in Montana has remained consistently below the nation, the rate of unemployment has been steadily falling since late in 2011. So, unemployment in Montana has stayed well below the unemployment rate nationally and recovery is well established.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Over Time: MT vs. U.S., 1980-2013 (Mar.)
'82.12
'92.6
'03.6
'07.5
'09.10
'11.8
'83.3
'07.3
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
'80.1
'80.1
0'81
.7'82
.4'83
.1
'83.1
0'84
.7'85
.4'86
.1
'86.1
0'87
.7'88
.4'89
.1
'89.1
0'90
.7'91
.4'92
.1
'92.1
0'93
.7'94
.4'95
.1
'95.1
0'96
.7'97
.4'98
.1
'98.1
0'99
.7'00
.4'01
.1
'01.1
0'02
.7'03
.4'04
.1
'04.1
0'05
.7'06
.4'07
.1
'07.1
0'08
.7'09
.4'10
.1
'10.1
0'11
.7'12
.4'13
.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S.
MT
Month-to-Month Change in Employment Levels Nationally and in Montana The top chart shows monthly change in non-farm employment across the U.S. since the beginning of 2006 – about a five-year period. The lower chart shows the same data for Montana. The slowdown in the economy nationally revealed itself as a trough in employment change over a period from about May of 2008 through December of 2009. The recovery can be seen as beginning with employment growth in January of 2010. This employment growth has largely continued since, although there have been months where employment nationwide dipped once again. Employment change in Montana is shown in the lower chart. State employment decline began early in 2008 and continued through 2009. Recovery began early in 2010, but this recovery can be seen as “fragile,” and monthly growth in employment is not assured, as occurred in more recent months.
U.S. Monthly Employment Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2006-2013 (April)(thous)
'07.11
'13.4
'12.9
'10.4
'09.11
'09.1
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Montana Monthly Change in Seasonally Adjusted Employment, 2006 - 2013 (Mar.)
'13.1
'11.5
'10.2'07.11
'06.12 '11.11
'11.7
'08.6 '09.10
'09.1-3,300
-2,200
-1,100
0
1,100
2,200
'06.1
'06.4
'06.7
'06.1
0'07
.1'07
.4'07
.7
'07.1
0'08
.1'08
.4'08
.7
'08.1
0'09
.1'09
.4'09
.7
'09.1
0'10
.1'10
.4'10
.7
'10.1
0'11
.1'11
.4'11
.7
'11.1
0'12
.1'12
.4'12
.7
'12.1
0'13
.1'13
.4
Trends in Quarterly Growth in Personal Income in Montana and Nationwide Another way of gauging conditions in the economy as a whole is by viewing quarter-to-quarter changes in total personal income. The chart at the right shows percentage changes in nominal income for both the U.S. and Montana from 2002 through the 4th quarter of 2012 (the most recent data nationally). Here it is easy to see the impact on income growth that resulted in the most recent economic slowdown. Personal income tends to grow nationally at about one to two percent a quarter (nominal growth), when the economy is functioning well. In some particularly good quarters, it can even grow as fast as 3% - which it did nationally in the first quarter of 2008. However, after that time, income growth plunged into negative territory and this slide bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009.
Quarter-to-Quarter Personal Income Change, Montana vs. US, 2002 - 2012 (4th Q)
2012.4
2011.2
2010.1
2008.2
2009.1
2008.1
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2002
.2
2002
.3
2002
.4
2003
.1
2003
.2
2003
.3
2003
.4
2004
.1
2004
.2
2004
.3
2004
.4
2005
.1
2005
.2
2005
.3
2005
.4
2006
.1
2006
.2
2006
.3
2006
.4
2007
.1
2007
.2
2007
.3
2007
.4
2008
.1
2008
.2
2008
.3
2008
.4
2009
.1
2009
.2
2009
.3
2009
.4
2010
.1
2010
.2
2010
.3
2010
.4
2011
.1
2011
.2
2011
.3
2011
.4
2012
.1
2012
.2
2012
.3
2012
.4
2013
.1
2013
.2
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (nominal change)
U.S.
Montana
While income growth nationally and in Montana is once again positive. This growth remains uncertain on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Economy recovery is occurring, but it is fragile, particularly when viewing income change.
Unemployment Rates among Rocky Mountain West States This chart shows unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, for Montana and the U.S. as a whole in relation to other states in the Rocky Mountain West, including Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. All states in the region have followed the general trend in unemployment that has been occurring nationally. The unemployment rate rose to higher levels that other RMW states, approaching that of the nation as a whole. Unemployment in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah has been lower than that of both Colorado and Idaho. In the last year or more, unemployment has been falling fairly markedly in all of the RMW states. So, there is general improvement in the unemployment picture nationally and regionally. In 2007 prior to the national recession, unemployment in Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho had fallen below 3.0%. This is very low unemployment and could return in the next two to three years.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Among Rocky Mountain West States, 1980-2013 (Mar.)
'09.10
'07.3
'00.11
'92.6
'89.3
'82.12
'03.7
'07.4
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
'80.1
'80.1
0'81
.7'82
.4'83
.1
'83.1
0'84
.7'85
.4'86
.1
'86.1
0'87
.7'88
.4'89
.1
'89.1
0'90
.7'91
.4'92
.1
'92.1
0'93
.7'94
.4'95
.1
'95.1
0'96
.7'97
.4'98
.1
'98.1
0'99
.7'00
.4'01
.1
'01.1
0'02
.7'03
.4'04
.1
'04.1
0'05
.7'06
.4'07
.1
'07.1
0'08
.7'09
.4'10
.1
'10.1
0'11
.7'12
.4'13
.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. MT WY
ID CO UT
Regional and Sub-Regional Patterns in U.S. Unemployment The maps show varying levels of unemployment across the United States. The top map shows county-level unemployment prior to the economic slowdown, which began in 2007 (July, 2006). The lower map shows unemployment in October of 2009 when unemployment nationally peaked at around 10%. In 2006 Montana and its surrounding region had fairly tight labor markets and low unemployment rates. It was a time when wage and salary rates had begun to rise more rapidly in Montana than nationally. As the recession deepened in 2008 and 2009, unemployment deepened and spread. Unemployment rates in the central and northern Plains region have been the lowest throughout.
July, 2006
October, 2009
Unemployment Trends in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992 – 2013 The top chart shows monthly totals of the number of persons unemployed in both Missoula and Ravalli Counties over time. In both counties, unemployment reached its lowest level in September of 2006 and then increased to hit peaks in January of 2011. Unemployment has been gradually working its way down since then, but remains high. The lower chart shows unemployment rates for both of these counties. Unemployment in Ravalli County rose to as high as 11% in January of 2011. More recently it was just above 8%. In Missoula County, the unemployment rate never rose as high as 8% and is now at around 6%.
Total Unemployment, Missoula Co., 1992 - 2013 (March)
'06.9
'11.1
'06.9
'11.1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
'92.
5
'93.
2
'93.
11
'94.
8
'95.
5
'96.
2
'96.
11
'97.
8
'98.
5
'99.
2
'99.
11
'00.
8
'01.
5
'02.
2
'02.
11
'03.
8
'04.
5
'05.
2
'05.
11
'06.
8
'07.
5
'08.
2
'08.
11
'09.
8
'10.
5
'11.
2
'11.
11
'12.
8
Missoula
Ravalli
Monthly Unemployment Rate, Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992-2013
'11.1
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
'92.
5
'93.
2
'93.
11
'94.
8
'95.
5
'96.
2
'96.
11
'97.
8
'98.
5
'99.
2
'99.
11
'00.
8
'01.
5
'02.
2
'02.
11
'03.
8
'04.
5
'05.
2
'05.
11
'06.
8
'07.
5
'08.
2
'08.
11
'09.
8
'10.
5
'11.
2
'11.
11
'12.
8
Missoula
Ravalli
Labor Force and Employment Growth in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992 to 2013 The top chart shows month-to-month change in the total number of persons in the labor force of Missoula County and the total number of these that were employed. The lower chart shows the same information for Ravalli County. Both counties experienced almost uninterrupted labor force and employment growth from the early ‘90s until the recent recession, which hit Missoula County in November of 2008 and hit Ravalli County in June of the same year. Employment then slumped in both counties until stabilizing in 2010. While employment is now growing again in Missoula County, Ravalli County employment growth remains slow.
Missoula Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013
'08.11
'09.1
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
'92.
5
92.12
'93.
7
'94.
2
'94.
9
'95.
4
'95.
11
'96.
6
'97.
1
'97.
8
'98.
3
'98.
10
'99.
5
'99.
12
'00.
7
'01.
2
'01.
9
'02.
4
'02.
11
'03.
6
'04.
1
'04.
8
'05.
3
'05.
10
'06.
5
'06.
12
'07.
7
'08.
2
'08.
9
'09.
4
'09.
11
'10.
6
'11.
1
'11.
8
'12.
3
'12.
10
Labor Force
Employed
Ravalli Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013 (Mar.)
'08.6
'09.2
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
'92.
5
'93.
1
'93.
9
'94.
5
'95.
1
'95.
9
'96.
5
'97.
1
'97.
9
'98.
5
'99.
1
'99.
9
'00.
5
'01.
1
'01.
9
'02.
5
'03.
1
'03.
9
'04.
5
'05.
1
'05.
9
'06.
5
'07.
1
'07.
9
'08.
5
'09.
1
'09.
9
'10.
5
'11.
1
'11.
9
'12.
5
'13.
1
Labor Force
Employed
Employment Growth among U.S. States, 1998 to 2008 This chart compares the relative rate of growth in employment among all states during this recent ten-year period. Nationally, total employment grew by 14.7% between 1998 and 2008, keeping in mind that the national economic recession officially began in December, 2007. Employment grew by 21.4% in Montana during this period, ranking it 8th among all states in employment growth. Employment growth among all five of the Rocky Mountain West states was fairly strong during this period. In fact all five states ranked among the top ten in employment growth.
Percentage Growth in Total Employment (All Jobs) among States, 1998 to 2008
14.7%
20.3%
21.4%
28.0%29.3%
30.1%
44.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
MichiganOhio
IndianaWestVirginiaMississippi
IllinoisIow a
MissouriKansas
MassachusettKentuckyArkansasNebraskaLouisiana
WisconsinRhodeIsland
PennsylvaniaAlabama
TennesseeMinnesota
ConnecticutMaine
OklahomaVermontNew York
NorthDakotaCalifornia
USSouthDakota
Delaw areNew Jersey
OregonNew Hampshire
Dist of ColumNorthCarolinaSouthCarolina
VirginiaMaryland
Haw aiiWashington
AlaskaNew Mexico
ColoradoGeorgia
MontanaTexas
FloridaIdaho
WyomingUtah
ArizonaNevada
Labor Force Expansion Patterns Nationwide
Areas of Rapid Population Growth or Decline The maps show the larger patterns of population growth in the last two decades. Growth in Montana is heavily focused in the west, but growth in the larger region has slowed in the more recent decade and concentrated.
Population Trends Over Time in Missoula and Ravalli Counties The population of Missoula County in July, 2011, is estimated at 110,138. This is up from 109,443 in 2010 (gain of 695) which was up from 108,717 in 2009 (gain of 726). Ravalli County’s 2011 estimate is 40,450, up only slightly from 40,343 in 20101 (gain of 107) which was up from 39,956 in 2009 (gain of 387). In both counties, growth was relatively strong in the ‘70s, slowed and flattened in the ‘80s, and then strong again in the ‘90s. Between 2000 and 2011, the rate of growth slowed considerably. Annual percentage growth in the counties is shown in the lower chart. Annual population growth in Missoula County was 1.5% in 2008, but each year since has been less than one percent. It should range from .5 to 1.0% a year over the next five years. Ravalli County is likely to grow at a similar annual rate.
Total Population Over Time, Missoula & Ravalli Counties, 1969 - 2011
110,138
58,472
76,352
93,151
77,995
40,45034,041
25,06824,426
14,543
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'69
'71
'73
'75
'77
'79
'81
'83
'85
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
Missoula
Ravalli
Yearly Percentage Pop. Change in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1970 - 2011
2.0%
'78, 7.0%
'94, 5.9%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
'70
'72
'74
'76
'78
'80
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Missoula Ravalli
Population Growth in Missoula and Ravalli Counties Over Time in Relation to Growth Statewide in Montana This chart show annual percentage change in the total populations of Ravalli and Missoula Counties in comparison to growth by Montana as a whole. In most years, population growth in the two counties greatly exceeds growth statewide, with most of Montana’s population growth occurring in the western mountain region.
Annual % Population Change: MT vs. Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1980 - 2011
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
'81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau July 1 Estimates
Missoula Ravalli .Montana
Area Population Distribution in Montana and the Larger Region: 2010 This map shows population mapped at the Census “block” level using 2010 Census data. In 2010 approximately 78% of Montanans lived within 50 miles of the state’s seven largest cities or urban centers, up from 73% in 2000. Going forward, population growth will continue to concentrated near these centers and economic and employment growth in Montana will be increasingly “urban in character.”
Population within 50 Miles of Major Cities in 2000 At the time of the 2000 Census, Montana had a population of about 902,000 people. The map shows the distribution of this population in Montana and surrounding areas. Of the 902,000 state residents, a little over 670,000 lived within 50 miles of Montana’s seven largest cities or urban centers, including Billings (142,000), Missoula (141,000), Kalispell (95,000), Great Falls (87,000), Bozeman (83,000), Helena (68,000), and Butte (67,000). This largely “urban-based population” represented about 74% of Montana’s entire population state-wide.
Area Population Distribution in Montana and the Larger Region: 2010 This map shows population mapped at the Census “block” level using 2010 Census data. In 2010 approximately 78% of Montanans lived within 50 miles of the state’s seven largest cities or urban centers, up from 73% in 2000. Going forward, population growth will continue to concentrated near these centers and economic and employment growth in Montana will be increasingly “urban in character.”
Population Distribution in Montana within Urban 50-Mile Zones The upper chart shows the total number of people residing within 50 miles of Montana’s seven major cities in 2000 and ten years later in 2010. The population within 50 miles of Billings grew from 142,000 in 2000 to over 161,000 in 2010, an increase of almost 20,000. This area population for Missoula grew from 140,000 to almost 160,000. The lower chart focuses on growth in these area populations over this recent ten-year period with some of the figures reduced from those in the map, to account for areas where the circles overlap (and double count populations in these overlapping areas). The Bozeman urban zone had the largest increase at 22,400, followed by increases in Billings, Missoula, and Kalispell – all with gains of 18,000 to 20,000. Helena also had a significant increase. These five urban and urbanizing centers accounted for nearly all of the state’s population growth in this most recent ten-year period between Censuses.
Population within 50-Mile Zones of Major Cities, 2000 vs. 2010
141,972 140,870
95,54183,024
68,144
161,389 159,603
113,817105,441
87,41277,686
67,106
229,961
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Billings Missoula Kalispell Bozeman Great Falls Helena Butte Rest of MT
Source: Swanson using Census data (there is some overlap in these zones by several cities)
2000 2010
Population Growth by Zone, 2000 to 2010
22,417
19,417 18,733 18,276
9,542
75153
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Bozeman Billings Missoula Kalispell Helena Great Falls Butte Rest of MT
Montana’s 2010 Pop Distribution, West-to-East The top chart shows the total population of each county in 2010, with western counties to the left, central front counties in the center, and eastern plains counties at the right. Montana’s seven urban counties are color-coded in dark blue (Yellowstone), dark green (Missoula and Cascade), and dark yellow (Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Silver Bow). The lower chart then shows how population changed in Montana from 2000 to 2010. Population growth is concentrated in western Montana and in and nearby the state’s urban centers. More and more of Montana’s economy is “urban” in character and could not exist absent these growing centers.
Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-Rural
PARK LINCOLN
LAKE SILVER BOW
RAVALLI
LEWIS & CLARK
GALLATIN FLATHEAD
MISSOULA
GLACIER
CASCADE
YELLOWSTONE
CUSTER HILL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
MIS
SOULA
FLATH
EAD
GALLATIN
LEW
IS &
CLA
RK
RAVALLI
SILVER B
OW
LAKE
LINCOLN
PARK
SANDERS
JEFF
ERSON
CARBON
DEER LODGE
BEAVERHEAD
STILLW
ATER
MADIS
ON
POWELL
BROADWATE
R
MIN
ERAL
SWEET
GRASS
GRANITE
MEAGHER
YELLOW
STONE
CASCADE
GLACIE
R
BIG H
ORN
FERGUS
PONDERA
TETON
CHOUTEAU
TOOLE
MUSSELS
HELL
WHEATLA
ND
JUDIT
H BASIN
GOLDEN V
ALLEY
PETROLEUM
HILL
CUSTER
ROOSEVELT
RICHLA
ND
ROSEBUD
DAWSON
VALLEY
BLAIN
E
PHILLIP
S
SHERIDAN
FALLON
LIBERTY
DANIELS
POWDER R
IVER
MCCONE
GARFIELD
PRAIRIE
CARTER
WIB
AUX
TREASURE
Montana Population Change by County, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, 2000-10
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
LEWIS & CLARK
RAVALLI
LAKE
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOWSTONE
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
MIS
SOULA
FLATH
EAD
GALLATIN
LEW
IS &
CLA
RK
RAVALLI
SILVER B
OW
LAKE
LINCOLN
PARK
SANDERS
JEFF
ERSON
CARBON
DEER LODGE
BEAVERHEAD
STILLW
ATER
MADIS
ON
POWELL
BROADWATE
R
MIN
ERAL
SWEET
GRASS
GRANITE
MEAGHER
YELLOW
STONE
CASCADE
GLACIE
R
BIG H
ORN
FERGUS
PONDERA
TETON
CHOUTEAU
TOOLE
MUSSELS
HELL
WHEATLA
ND
JUDIT
H BASIN
GOLDEN V
ALLEY
PETROLEUM
HILL
CUSTER
ROOSEVELT
RICHLA
ND
ROSEBUD
DAWSON
VALLEY
BLAIN
E
PHILLIP
S
SHERIDAN
FALLON
LIBERTY
DANIELS
POWDER R
IVER
MCCONE
GARFIELD
PRAIRIE
CARTER
WIB
AUX
TREASURE
Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East and Urban-to-Rural The upper chart shows how the labor force was distributed across Montana prior to declines in the labor force and employment brought on by the economic downturn. Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (eastern counties), with counties in the central front in the middle. Within each of these three groupings, counties are also arrayed from urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated). The lower chart shows how the labor force grew across these regional county groupings from January of 2000 to August of 2008. In this recent period of economic growth in Montana, labor force expansion has been heavily nearby the urban centers.
Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008
CUSTER GLACIER HILL LAKE
RAVALLI
LEWIS & CLARK
FLATHEAD GALLATIN
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOWSTONE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Labor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008
SWEET GRASS MADISON PARK RICHLAND
SILVER BOW RAVALLI
LEWIS & CLARK
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
MISSOULA
GLACIER
CASCADE
YELLOWSTONE
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East and Urban-to-Rural The chart below shows how the labor force in Montana was distributed across the state’s counties prior to declines in the labor force and employment brought on by the economic downturn. Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (eastern counties), with counties in the central front region in the middle. Within each of these three regional groupings, counties are also arrayed from urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated).
Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008
CUSTER GLACIER HILL LAKE
RAVALLI
LEW IS & CLARK
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOW STONE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
MIS
SO
UL
A
G
AL
LA
TIN
FL
AT
HE
AD
LE
WIS
& C
LA
RK
RA
VA
LL
I
SIL
VE
R B
OW
LA
KE
P
AR
K
LIN
CO
LN
JEF
FE
RS
ON
C
AR
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N
B
EA
VE
RH
EA
D
SA
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ER
S
S
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LW
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ER
M
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N
D
EE
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S
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S
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BR
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GR
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T
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E
PH
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GA
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E
Labor Force Expansion Across MontanaThe chart shows how the labor force grew across these regional county groupings from January of 2000 to August of 2008. In this recent period of economic growth in Montana, labor force expansion has been heavily concentrated in and nearby urban centers.
Labor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008
SWEET GRASS MADISON PARK RICHLAND
SILVER BOW
RAVALLI
LEWIS & CLARK
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
MISSOULA
GLACIER
CASCADE
YELLOWSTONE
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
MISSO
ULA
GA
LLAT
IN
FLAT
HEAD
LEWI
S & C
LARK
RA
VALL
I
SILV
ER B
OW
LAKE
PA
RK
LINC
OLN
JEFF
ERSO
N
CA
RBON
BEAV
ERHE
AD
SAND
ERS
ST
ILLWA
TER
MAD
ISON
DEER
LOD
GE
SW
EET
GRAS
S
POWEL
L
BROA
DWAT
ER
MINER
AL
GR
ANITE
MEA
GHER
YELL
OWS
TONE
CASC
ADE
GLAC
IER
FE
RGUS
BIG
HOR
N
TETO
N
TO
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TEAU
PO
NDER
A
MUS
SELS
HELL
WHE
ATLA
ND
JUDI
TH B
ASIN
GO
LDEN
VAL
LEY
PETR
OLE
UM
HILL
CU
STER
RICH
LAND
DA
WSO
N
RO
SEBU
D
ROOS
EVEL
T
VA
LLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
FA
LLON
SHER
IDAN
MCC
ONE
POWDE
R RI
VER
DA
NIELS
CART
ER
LIBE
RTY
GA
RFIELD
PRAIRIE
WIBAU
X
TR
EASU
RE
Montana’s 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East In interpreting past and future job growth patterns in Montana it important to view how the state’s population is distributed from west-to-east and between urban areas and rural. The chart shows the total population of each county in 2010, with western counties to the left, central front counties in the center, and eastern plains counties at the right. Montana’s seven urban counties are color-coded in dark blue (Yellowstone), dark green (Missoula and Cascade), and dark yellow (Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Silver Bow).
Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-Rural
PARK LINCOLN
LAKE SILVER BOW
RAVALLI
LEW IS & CLARK
GALLATIN FLATHEAD
MISSOULA
GLACIER
CASCADE
YELLOW STONE
CUSTER HILL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
MIS
SO
UL
A
F
LA
TH
EA
D
GA
LL
AT
IN
L
EW
IS &
CL
AR
K
RA
VA
LL
I
SIL
VE
R B
OW
LA
KE
L
INC
OL
N
PA
RK
S
AN
DE
RS
JEF
FE
RS
ON
C
AR
BO
N
DE
ER
LO
DG
E
BE
AV
ER
HE
AD
ST
ILL
WA
TE
R
MA
DIS
ON
PO
WE
LL
BR
OA
DW
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MIN
ER
AL
SW
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RA
SS
GR
AN
ITE
ME
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YE
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E
CA
SC
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BIG
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MU
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AS
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E
Population Growth Across Montana, 2000-10Population growth is concentrated in western Montana and in and nearby the state’s urban centers. More and more of Montana’s economy is “urban” in character and could not exist absent these growing centers.
Montana Population Change by County, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, 2000-10
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
LEW IS & CLARK
RAVALLI
LAKE
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOW STONE
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
MIS
SO
UL
A
F
LA
TH
EA
D
GA
LL
AT
IN
LE
WIS
& C
LA
RK
RA
VA
LL
I
SIL
VE
R B
OW
LA
KE
L
INC
OL
N
PA
RK
S
AN
DE
RS
JEF
FE
RS
ON
CA
RB
ON
DE
ER
LO
DG
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BE
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HE
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ST
ILL
WA
TE
R
MA
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BR
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AL
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RA
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Past and Projected Trends in Annual Births & Deaths in Montana The chart shows annual births and deaths in Montana dating back to the mid-40s and extending up through 2011 (actual records). Birth estimates for 2012 through 2030 are from projections made by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2005. Death projections are made by Swanson and are based upon projections for the size of the 65 and older population in future years and on past and future estimates of deaths as a function of the 65 and older population. The number of persons 65 and older in Montana is projected to increase by about 70% from 2010 to 2025 and this increase is what accounts for the steady and rapid rise in the annual number of deaths. Persons born in 1957 at the height of the birth in Boomers were 53 in 2010 and will be 63 in 2020 and 73 in 2030. So, as the Boomer generation continues to age over time past their 60s
and into their 70s and beyond, annual deaths will rise with this trend slowing sometime after 2030.
Annual Births and Deaths in Montana - Actual (1945-2011) and Projected (2012-2030)
'45
'73
'99
'06
'82
'57
'10
'25
'30
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
'45 '48 '51 '54 '57 '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26 '29
Source: Actual (Montana Vital Statistics, 2011) and Projected (births, U.S. Census Bureau, March, '05; deaths: Larry Swanson, OCRMW)
Actual Projected
Deaths Projected
Population Aging in Montana The top chart below shows the population of Montana at the time of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses arrayed by the number of persons at each age, from youngest to oldest. The state’s overall population grew from 902,195 to 989,415 during this period; an increase 87,220 or 9.7%. Growth the previous decade of the ‘90s was 12.8% and growth projected for 2010 to 2020 is around 8% (Swanson, Apr., 2012). Growth is slowing in part because the population is aging and this can be seen below. The lower chart then looks at change in population by age.
Montana's Populaton by Single Age, Youngest-to-Oldest, 2000 vs. 2010
1542
85+
25
52
0
6,000
12,000
18,000
24,000
0 3 6 9 12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
Source: U.S. Population Censuses
2000 2010
Montana Population Change by Single Age, 1990-2000 & 2000-2010
48
17
85+
3
58
27
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0 3 6 9 12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
'90-'00 '00-'10
Projected Shifts in the Population of Montana by Age
The upper chart shows how population changed in Montana by single age from youngest to oldest between 1990 and 2000. The lower chart shows how population is projected to change by the U.S. Census Bureau (March, 2005, projections) between 2000 and 2010.
The growth in population that was concentrated among persons between their early 40s and late 50s in the ‘90s is projected to be concentrated between persons in their early 50s to late 60s in the current decade.
The echo population also will continue to age, shifting growth to persons between their early 20s and mid-30s. And during the current decade the “echo-echo” population will come into being, reflected in the recent increase in births.
Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2000 to 2010
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Projected Popu-lation Growth by Age in the Next Decade – 2010 to 2020
The chart at the right shows how Montana’s population is projected to change by age between 2010 and 2020. During the next decade growth in the state’s population will shift to persons in their early 60s to late 70s and Montana is in fact projected to have one of the largest populations 65 and older as a percent of its total by 2020.
The echo group or the children of boomers is shown in growth among persons from their early 30s to mid 40s. However, this echo group is projected by the Census Bureau to be much smaller than the boomer group. In turn, the “echo-echo” group is projected to be much smaller than the echo group.
As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself in ripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor. This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniors and health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number of persons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well as for high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in size in the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are not enough persons entering the workforce to replace them.
Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2010 to 2020
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Future Population Change in Montana by Age Group
Projected aging of Montana’s population over the next 20 years can be viewed by examining how the population is expected to change by age grouping. The upper chart shows the population under 18 (high school and younger), the population 18 to 33 (young post-high school adults and those at ages of family formation and childrearing), the population 34 to 49 (young and middle-age adults), the population 50 to 64 (older adults at pre-retirement ages), and the population 65 and older.
The older adult working age population between 50 and 64, which saw massive growth in the ‘90s will also see very high growth in the current period before beginning a decline. And the 65 and older population, which grew by only 13% in the ‘90s, will grow by 20%, 46%, and 27% in the subsequent three decades.
As a result of these age shifts, Montana will have one of the largest populations over 65 of any state in the country in future years.
Projected Montana Population by Age Group
215,516215,351
191,309
160,909
192,115
129,243
247,769
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005
0-17 18-33 34-49 50-64 65+
Projected Percent Pop. Change by Age Grouping, Montana
3%
-8%
3%
-4%
0%
10%
-14%
-5%
22%
-13%
9%
-1%
39%
49%
-4%-8%
13%
20%
46%
27%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
'90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
0-17
18-33
34-49
50-64
65+
Regional Patterns of Population Aging in the U.S. – 65 and Over Population as a share of the total The 65 and older population in Montana was 13.3% of the total in 1990, 13.4% in 2000, and 14.8% in 2010. By 2020 this will rise to 20% and to nearly 24% by 2025. Some areas are growing older more rapidly and this aging process will accelerate over the next 20 years as more and more “boomers” move past 65 years of age. Population aging will slow the growth in the labor force. [Note: data used in the maps are from the 1990 and 2010 Population Censuses]
Population Aging Among Rocky Mountain West States The chart shows the percent of the total population 65 and older for five Rocky Mountain West states and for the U.S. All of the Rocky Mountain West states have been adding population through net in-migration and, sometimes, this can result in the population of an area being “younger” than others without such in-migration. But it depends upon what age groups the in-migrants and out-migrants are from. Montana and Wyoming are tending to age more rapidly than other Rocky Mountain states because they both have tended to add older adults (boomers) while losing younger adults, and this has tilted their overall age profiles. Montana’s population is currently oldest among these five states with 14.6% of the total 65 and older. By 2030 this is projected to increase to nearly 26%.
The U.S. population as a whole is aging and this aging will accelerate as the large boomer population continues to age. The 65 and older population will increase from around 13% in 2010 to almost 20% nationwide in 2030.
Past & Projected Population Aging for Mountain West States, 1990 - 2030
10.9%
9.0%
12.4%
14.8%
12.4%13.0%
16.5%
13.2%
18.3%
25.8%26.5%
19.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Colorado Utah Idaho Montana Wyoming U.S.
Source: Population Censuses & U.S. Census Bureau Projections (2005)
'90 '00 '10 '30
States ordered by Population that is 65 and older The chart shows the percent of the total population of each state in 2010 and 1990 that is 65 years of age and older. States in the Rocky Mountain West are shown with purple bars for their 2010 values. Southwestern states are shown with gold bars. Montana’s 65 and older population rose to 14.8% of the total in 2010, up from 13.3% in 1990. By contrast Colorado’s rose from 10.0% to 10.9%. The share of the population 65 and older did not increase in all of the states between these two years, largely because the large boomer population is only reaching age 65 and older in recent years. However, going forward into the future, this elderly population will grow more rapidly and its share of the total will rise in almost all of the states.
U.S. States by 65 & Older Population as Share of Total, 2010 & 199017.3%
13.8%
13.2%
12.4%
10.9%
9.0%
12.4%
14.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
UtahTexas
GeorgiaColoradoCalifornia
Distr of ColNevadaVirginia
MarylandLouisiana
WashingtonIdaho
WyomingIllinois
MississippiMinnesota
North CarolinaIndianaKansas
New MexicoKentucky
TennesseeNew Jersey
NebraskaOklahomaNew York
New HampshireSouth Carolina
WisconsinAlabamaMichigan
MassachusettsArizonaOregon
MissouriOhio
ConnecticutSouth Dakota
DelawareArkansas
Rhode IslandNorth Dakota
VermontMontana
IowaPennsylvania
MaineWest Virginia
Florida
Source: Population Censuses
2010
1990
Employment Trends by Major Sector in Montana, 1990-2010 Understanding where the economy may be going in the future must start with the path of job growth and change in recent years. The chart shows total employment levels for the 24 major sectors of the economy over the last two decades. Retail trade is Montana’s largest employer among sectors with total employment (all full and part-time jobs) exceeding 70,000, although many jobs in this sector are less than full-time. Health care services is next with around 68,000 total jobs followed by accommodations and food services (lodging facilities and food service stores, etc.), then local government (all city and county government as well as local public schools), and then construction (all construction including buildings, heavy construction, and special trades). Total employment in Montana (including all full- and part-time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s as compared with 20% growth nationwide, and by over 12% in the most recent decade (2000-10), as compared to only 5% growth nationally.
Total Employment by Major Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (includes all full- and part-time employment)
Retail Trade
Health Care serv
Accom & Food serv
Local Govt
Construction
Other Services
P rof & Tech serv
Real Estate serv
Farm/Ranch
Admin & Waste sv
State Govt
Finance & Insur
Manufacturing
Arts,Ent,Recr serv
Wholesale Tr
Transpt & Warehsg
Fed Civil Govt
All M ining
Information serv
U.S. Military
Education serv
Forest & Ag serv
Utilities
Managemt serv
Total Job Growth in Montana by Major Sector, 1998-2008 The chart isolates change in employment in each of the 24 major sectors leading up to and into the recent economic recession, which officially began nationally in December of 2007. This chart shows us the path Montana’s economy was on over this recent ten-year period, prior to the downturn. The largest increase in jobs among sectors was by construction where jobs grew by 16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all new jobs - construction also was among the sectors hardest hit by the recent recession. Jobs in health care services grew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs). Jobs in real estate services increased by 11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and in professional and technical services by 11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and in administrative and waste services by 9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five major sectors together – construction, health care, real estate services, professional and technical services, and administrative and waste services - accounted for 61% of all new jobs in Montana over this period. Three “trade” sectors (shown in orange) were next in line, together adding 20,000 jobs or about 19% of the total.
Total Employment Growth by Major Sector of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 2008
527
540
943
948
1,000
2,493
2,716
2,833
4,170
4,406
4,921
5,882
7,036
7,405
9,209
11,656
11,879
15,384
16,165
-3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000
Farm & Ranch
Manufacturing
Forest & Ag serv
U.S. Military
Utilities
Transpt & Warehsg
Managemt serv
Wholesale Tr
Information serv
Fed Civil Govt
Local Govt
State Govt
Education serv
Retail Trade
All Mining & Mng Supt
Finance & Insur
Other Services
Arts,Ent,Recr serv
Accom & Food serv
Admin & Waste sv
Prof & Tech serv
Real Estate serv
Health Care serv
Construction
Employment in Montana by Sub-sector Groupings, 2008 There are 87 individual economic sub-sectors and these are shown by major “groupings” in the chart. Within each grouping, sub-sectors are arrayed by total employment.
Sub-sectors are color-coded as follows: “teal” (professional, business, and financial services), “blue” (health care), “yellow” (government), “orange” (trade), “dark red” (construction), “black” (manufacturing), “white” (transportation), “purple” (petro refining and oil and gas), “brown” (all other mining and mining support), “brown-green” (wood products), and “green” (ag).
Total Employment in Montana by Sub-sector Groupings in 2008
29,159
30,285
25,939
18,53539,629
25,98046,236
14,81320,210
21,187
26,39134,350
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Farm & RanchAg Services
Forestry ServPaper Mfg
Wood Prod MfgMining Support serv
Mining exc O&GOil & Gas Extr
Petroleum Prod MfgPipeline Transpt
UtilitiesWarehsig/storage
Air TransptTransit & Ground Tranpt
Transpt Support servCouriers/messengers
Rail TransptTruck Transpt
Other Transp Equp MfgLeather Mfg
Textile Prod MfgElec. Equip Mfg
Apparel MfgPlastics Mfg
Motor Veh MfgPrim Metals Mfg
Computers, Elect MfgBeverage MfgChemical Mfg
Nonmetals MfgFurniture MfgPrinting Mfg
Machinery MfgFabr Metals Mfg
Miscel MfgFood Mfg
Heavy ConstrBuildings Constr
Spec Trade ContrLessors of intang assets
R.E. Rent/ leasing servReal Estate serv
Museums, zoos, parksMovie Theaters
Electronics RetlFurniture/Home Retl
Health Care Stores RetlC lothing Retl
Sporting, Musin RetlGaso Stations Retl
Personal & laundry servicesBldg Mat/Garden Retl
Performing arts/sportsMiscel Retl
Nonstore RetlMotor Veh Retl
Repair ServFood Stores Retl
Private household servGen Merch Retl
Lodging (hotels/motels)Amusemt, gambling, recrea
Food & Drinking placesWholesale trade
U.S. MilitaryFed Civilian Govt
State GovtLocal Govt, incl pub ed
Nursing/residential care facilSocial assistance
HospitalsAmbulatory health serv
Other Info ServCentral banks, funds, trusts
ISPs/search/data procesgWaste Mangmt Serv
Broadcasting businessesManagement Serv
Publishing businessesTelecommunications
Securities/ InvestmentsEducation Serv
Insurance businessesBanks & Credit Inst
Membership organizationsAdministrative Serv
Profes, Tech Serv
Source: Swanson using BEA, U.S. Commerce data (includes all full- and part-time jobs)
Total Employment Growth in Montana by Sub-sector, 1998-2008 This chart focuses on “job growth” only for each sub-sector across these groupings from 1998 to 2008 – the time period leading up to the recent economic slowdown. It captures how employment was changing prior to the slowdown.
Of the 87 sub-sectors, the one with the biggest increase in jobs was “Professional, scientific and technical services” (legal services, accounting, bookkeeping, architectural, engineering, computer, research, advertising, etc., services). “Real estate services” had the second biggest increase.
Total Employment Growth in Montana by Sub-sector, 1998 - 2008
-2,945
4,44210,148
10,999
5,0485,925
4,5775,706
9,17111,543
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Farm & RanchAg Services
Forestry ServWood Prod Mfg
Paper MfgMining Support serv
Mining exc O&GOil & Gas Extr
Petroleum Prod MfgPipeline Transpt
UtilitiesTruck Transpt
Rail TransptAir Transpt
Warehsig/storageTransit & Ground Tranpt
Couriers/messengersTranspt Support serv
Prim Metals MfgFurniture Mfg
Nonmetals MfgPlastics Mfg
Beverage MfgComputers, Elect Mfg
Other Transp Equp MfgPrinting Mfg
Textile Prod MfgApparel MfgLeather Mfg
Chemical MfgElec. Equip Mfg
Miscel MfgMotor Veh Mfg
Food MfgMachinery Mfg
Fabr Metals MfgHeavy Constr
Buildings ConstrSpec Trade Contr
Lessors of intang assetsR.E. Rent/ leasing serv
Real Estate servNonstore Retl
Gaso Stations RetlMovie Theaters
Food Stores RetlMuseums, zoos, parks
Electronics RetlSporting, Musin Retl
C lothing RetlRepair Serv
Health Care Stores RetlMotor Veh Retl
Miscel RetlFurniture/Home Retl
Personal & laundry servicesPrivate household servBldg Mat/Garden Retl
Lodging (hotels/motels)Performing arts/sports
Gen Merch RetlAmusemt, gambling, recrea
Food & Drinking placesWholesale trade
U.S. MilitaryFed Civilian Govt
Local Govt, incl pub edState Govt
Nursing/residential care facilHospitals
Social assistanceAmbulatory health servPublishing businesses
Other Info ServBroadcasting businesses
Central banks, funds, trustsWaste Mangmt Serv
ISPs/search/data procesgTelecommunications
Management ServSecurities/ Investments
Insurance businessesBanks & Credit Inst
Membership organizationsEducation Serv
Administrative ServProfes, Tech Serv
Source: Swanson using BEA, U.S. Commerce data (includes all full- and part-time jobs)
Total Employment in Montana’s Energy Sectors Considerable attention has been focused on the role that energy industries can play in Montana’s economy and this will continue to play out. The chart at the right shows total employment for several of the major energy industries in Montana, including electric and gas utilities, oil and gas extraction, mining support businesses, petroleum refineries, coal mining, and pipelines. The chart only shows annual data through 2010 but it can be seen that employment has grown in some areas – oil and gas and mining support – while declining or remaining somewhat stagnant in others. The lower chart shows how much of the state’s employment is accounted for by these energy sectors. In 2010 they accounted for only 1.8% of all jobs. While up from as low as 1.3% a few years ago, this is still less than the 2.1% in 1990.
Jobs Over Time for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & Industry
All
full-
& p
art-
tim
e jo
bs
Oil & Gasextraction
Electric,gas, &sanitaryserv
MiningSupportServ, incloil,gas,coal
PetroleumRefineries
Coal mining(estimates)
Petro &N.GasPipelines
Energy-Related Sectors Employment as Share of Total Employment, 1990 to 2010
1.8%
1.3%
2.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Labor Earnings Levels among Energy-Related Sub-sectors in Montana, 1990 to 2009 Annual labor earnings received by persons working in these energy-related jobs are shown in the chart in millions of 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars. While employment among the state’s utilities has fallen from levels in the mid-‘90s, labor earnings for these workers have generally risen and reached a high of $340 million in 2009, up from around $250 million at the beginning of the decade. Labor earnings by oil and gas workers reached $237 million in 2008, before falling back to $202 million in 2009. These are significantly higher than levels in the ‘90s.
Labor earnings in mining support activities and petroleum refining also have increased steadily over most of the last ten years, with refinery workers receiving labor earnings of $188 million in 2009. Mining support workers received $146 million in 2009 after receiving $203 million in 2008, both significantly higher levels than in the ‘90s.
Labor Earnings for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2009
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & Industry
Mill
ion
s o
f 20
05 D
olla
rs
Electric, gas,& sanitaryserv
Oil & Gasextraction
PetroleumRefineries
Mining SupportServ, incloil,gas,coal
Coal mining(estimates)
Petro & N.GasPipelines
Wage & Salary Employment vs. Self-employment (Proprietors) in Montana The chart shows annual employment counts for all workers in Montana, both self-employed and wage and salary or payroll employment. The second line shows the total number employed as “wage and salary workers.” The time period shown is 1980 through 2010. Montana experienced steady employment growth most of the last two decades leading up to the recent recession, with total employment growing by 28% in the ‘90s as compared to 20% nationally. The lower chart shows the percent of total employment by wage and salary workers. Wage and salary jobs currently represent a little less than three-fourths (73% in MT vs. 78% nationally) of all jobs in Montana and their share of total employment has been gradually decreasing.
Employment in MT Over Time: Total vs. Wage & Salary Workers Only, 1980-2010
390,752415,921
536,721
641,850
299,427 307,913
395,794
468,539
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce
total employment
wage & salaryworkers only
Wage & Salary Jobs as a Share of All Jobs Over Time in Montana
77.9%
74.0% 73.7% 73.0%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Deconstruction of the MDLI Industry Jobs Projections The 2010 estimates used in making the 2020 projections were broken down into more detailed industries with ownerships separated as in the BEA industry employment data. Estimates for 2000 up to 2010 were examined and then these trends were compared with projections going forward to 2020. The chart at the right shows these breakdowns. Private healthcare is the largest employer among these 22 industries and it grew through the recent recession. Retail trade is 2nd largest but it is not projected to return to its peak employment level in 2008 until 2019. The construction industry, shown in red, had peak employment in 2007 of 32,000 jobs but it won’t grow back to this until after 2020.
Recent Past & Projected Employment by Major Industry, 2000 to 2020
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'10E
'12p
'14p
'16p
'18p
'20P
Source: Swanson, using MDLI data, estimates, and projections
Health Care & Social Assist(priv)Retail Trade
Local Govt. (incl. ed. & health)
Accommodation & FoodServicesState Govt. (incl ed. & health)
Admin & Waste Services
Profess & Tech Services
Other Services, ex. Public Adm
Wholesale Trade
Finance & Insurance
Fed Civilian Govt (incl PO)
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Transportation & Warehsg
Information
Real Estate, Rental, Leasg
Educational Serv (priv)
Utilities
Managemt of comp./entrep.
Construction
Manufacturing
Mining
Agr, Forestry, Fishg & Huntg
Expected Job Growth in Montana by Major Category The chart shows recently projected job growth for Montana for two major categories of the economy – services-producing activities and good-producing activities (this latter category includes manufacturing, construction, and natural resource and mining sectors, while all others are included in services). These estimates and projections are from Montana’s Department of Labor and Industry (MDLI) and jobs are as defined in BLS data-gathering - they only include primary jobs of those employed. Excluded from these are another 44,000 jobs by self-employed and unpaid family workers (primary jobs). The total number of these jobs in Montana is projected to increase from about 421,000 in 2010 to just over 474,000 in 2020 - an increase of over 53,000 jobs and 12.6%. This compares with a recent projection by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of 14.8% for the nation as a whole.
Eighty percent of all these new jobs are projected to be in “services-producing” areas of the economy. This compares with 99% of all new jobs nationwide as projected by BLS.
Projected Total Job Levels in Montana, 2010 to 2020
50,411
370,536
420,947
61,089
413,027
474,116
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
Goods-Producing Jobs
Services-Producing Jobs
All Jobs (excl. self-employed & unpaid family
ones)
Source: MT Labor & Industry data & estimates
2020 Proj
2010 Est
Projected Job Growth by Major Type, 2010 to 2020
10,678
42,491
53,169
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Goods-Producing Jobs
Services-Producing Jobs
All Jobs (excl. self-employed & unpaid family)
Recent Trends in Construction Industry Total Employment in Montana The top chart shows levels of employment in Construction, Mining, and Trucking in Montana since 1990. Construction led employment growth in Montana’s economy during much of its relatively unparalleled economic expansion in the ‘90s and leading up to the national recession. And construction employment peaked in 2007 one year after construction employment peaked nationally. Construction employment paled state employment in mining and trucking. The lower chart shows employment in several sub-sectors within construction and mining. Within construction those employed as “special trade contractors” was the single biggest area of employment with much of this tied to housing construction in Montana.
Montana Industry Employment Trends: Construction, Mining, Trucking
'10
'07
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
All
full-
& p
art-
tim
e jo
bs
All Construction
All Mining
All Truck transport
Subsector Employment Trends in Construction and Mineral Extraction
Specialty trade contractors
Construction of buildings
Heavy & civil engineering const
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Specialty trade contractors
Construction of buildings
Heavy & civil engineering const
Mining (exc oil & gas)
Oil & gas extraction
Mining support activities
Montana’s Current Housing Stock The total number of housing units in Montana in 2009 was 441,279 (July, 2009, U.S. Census). The top chart shows when these units were built, from earliest to latest. Of the total, nearly 196,000 were built prior to 1970 – over 44% of the total. Another 20% were built prior to 1980. So nearly two-thirds of all housing units in Montana were built prior to the last great “energy crisis”, the one in the early ‘80s when crude oil prices briefly spiked to over $35 a barrel. The number of homes built since 1998, totals 39,600 – less than 10% of the total. Older homes are much more likely to have been built with much less focus on energy efficiency. Older homes need to aggressively retro-fitted with increasingly cost-effective and money-saving energy measures.
Housing Units in Montana in 2009 by Period Built
72,28577,711
45,751
89,740
54,320
61,881
27,830
11,761
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Before 1940 1940 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1998 1999 - 2005 2005 - 2009
Source: U.S. Census 2000
Montana's Current Housing Stock by Period Built
Before 1940, 16.4%
1940 - 1959, 17.6%
1960 - 1969, 10.4%
1970 - 1979, 20.3%
1980 - 1989, 12.3%
1990 - 1998, 14.0%
1999 - 2005, 6.3%
2005 - 2009, 2.7%
Before 1940
1940 - 1959
1960 - 1969
1970 - 1979
1980 - 1989
1990 - 1998
1999 - 2005
2005 - 2009
Construction Rise and Fall .. Recovery and Change Construction jobs peaked in 2007 in Montana at over 32,000 primary jobs and these had fallen to less than 23,000 by 2010. Projections by the Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry is that these jobs will gradually recover to only around 30,000 by 2020, 2,000 jobs less than the 2007 peak. Total construction employment (all full- and part-time jobs) totaled 54,000 in 2007 and these had fallen to less than 42,000 by 2010. The “housing boom” spurred construction to previously unheard of levels in Montana and the U.S. and it is unlikely that even as this industry recovers, it will look the same as the one at the peak in the housing bubble. For one thing, so much of construction was tied to single family housing development and, because of population aging, we are unlikely to have rapidly rising demand for single family housing construction over the next ten to twenty years. Energy Conservation Investments: While the construction industry will recover slowly, it also will change. Much more emphasis will be given to future construction on existing homes tied to energy conservation – increased insulation, window and door replacements, installation of more energy-conserving heating and cooling equipment and appliances. If $10,000 were invested in energy conservation measures in half the homes in Montana that were built prior to 1990, this would be on 170,000 homes for a total of $1.7 billion. This is equivalent to building 10,000 new homes at $170,000 each. Similar cost-effective energy investments could be made in commercial and governmental structures throughout the state. Investments in Restoration: Montana’s construction industry’s recovery also can be spurred by investing more public and private dollars in environmental and natural resource restoration. Montana is a large state with hundreds of sites and thousands of acres of land where such resources have been badly damaged and degraded. There is growing interest in the restoration of these damaged resources and much needs to be learned about the potential jobs that may be required, and the training and education necessary for more workers to move successfully into these jobs.
Employment Trends in Montana by Major “Segments” of the Economy The chart below groups the 24 major sectors of the economy into eleven larger “segments” and levels of employment among these since 1990 are shown below. These charts provide pictures of employment growth leading up to the recent economic slowdown. When you combine professional, technical services with financial services and several other services involving “business services” (like administrative services, management services, information services, etc.), these together are Montana’s single largest employer among major segments. This segment also added the most jobs, as shown below.
Total Employment by Major "Segments" of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce
P rof,Tech,Fin&Bus Serv (6)
Wholesale &Retail Trade (2)
Construction &Real Estate (2)
Arts, Ent, Recr,Accom, Food(2)
Health CareServices (1)
Fed & StateGovt (3)
Local Govt, inclschools (1)
Manuf., Transpt,Utilities (3)
Other Services(1)
Farm, Ranch,Ag Serv (2)
All M ining &Mining Serv (1)
Total Employment Growth by Major Segment of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 2008
2,493
3,446
4,406
5,113
5,882
14,441
15,384
28,044
30,107
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Farm, Ranch, Ag Serv (2)
Manuf., Transpt, Utilities (3)
Local Govt, incl schools (1)
Fed & State Govt (3)
All Mining & Mining Serv (1)
Wholesale & Retail Trade (2)
Other Services (1)
Arts, Ent, Recr, Accom, Food (2)
Health Care Services (1)
Construction & Real Estate (2)
Prof,Tech,Fin&Bus Serv (6)
Adjusted Jobs Projections for Montana by Major Industry The MDLI projections were carefully analyzed and adjusted in a number of areas. The biggest adjustment was in the assumed growth in healthcare services that is likely between 2010 and 2020. Healthcare jobs are projected to grow at 34% nationally and MDLI’s projection of 15% growth was adjusted upward to 25%, largely because the 65 and older population will increase by 50% during this period. The MDLI projection for manufacturing job growth was lowered. Most of the losses have been in wood products and primary metals and these jobs may not return. Manufacturing nationally will continue to decline. Mining jobs were adjusted higher by a small number.
Montana Employment by Industry Grouping: 2000, 2010, 2020 Adjusted Projections
4,386
6,867
16,384
22,774
7,453
14,135
15,892
20,408
39,497
45,117
39,173
55,942
70,371
62,548
4,595
8,067
17,884
29,995
7,816
14,808
17,643
22,620
41,779
43,586
49,302
67,022
76,551
78,185
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Ag, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES
Information
Transpt., Warehsg, Utilities
Other Services
Financial Activities
Educational Services(pub/priv)
All Govt.(less ed/health)
Profes. & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Trade (retl/whol)
Healthcare & Social Asst.(pub/prv)
Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections
2020 proj
2010 est
2000
Projected Job Growth in Montana by Industry Grouping – Adjusted With the adjustment to healthcare, it is projected to add 15,600 new jobs between 2010 and 2020, a 25% increase. Leisure and hospitality will add over 11,000 new jobs – the MDLI projection. Professional and business services will add over 10,000 jobs (MDLI projection). Construction will add over 7,000. Under these projections and adjustments, total jobs in Montana will rise to almost 480,000 – an increase of 59,000 with almost 83% of these new jobs in services. Jobs in all aspects of mining, including oil and gas, would increase by only 1,200 jobs, even with an adjustment upward from MDLI’s estimate.
Montana Jobs Growth by Industry Grouping: 2000-10 & 2010-20 (Adjusted)
19
2,178
-5,778
2,543
8,666
-435
550
1,095
1,990
2,617
1,705
8,816
6,644
15,154
209
1,200
1,500
7,221
-1,531
363
673
1,751
2,212
2,282
6,180
10,129
11,080
15,637
-8,000 -4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
Ag, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES
All Govt.(less ed/health)
Information
Transpt., Warehsg, Utilities
Other Services
Financial Activities
Educational Services (pub/priv)
Trade (retl/whol)
Profes. & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Healthcare & Social Asst. (pub/prv)
SERVICES-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES
Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adj. healthcare, manufacturing, mining)
'10-'20
'00-'10
Projected Job Growth in Montana by Major Occupational Groups Projections for future jobs by industry can be generally translated into projections for jobs according to occupational categories and the results of this are shown in the chart. Job figures in this chart also include over 40,000 jobs not included in the previous analysis by industry that are self-employed and unpaid family primary jobs. Of the 22 major occupational groups, the one with the highest number of jobs in Office and Administrative Support and these are projected to grow to 79,500 jobs by 2020, up from 71,200 in 2010. Jobs in trade-related occupations also are large in number. Construction and Extraction jobs will exceed 36,000 by 2020.
Montana Employment for Major Occupational Groups, 2010 & 2020 Projected (adjusted)
4,808
4,795
6,369
7,953
6,909
8,375
8,662
8,852
16,125
16,421
16,841
18,796
15,851
20,434
20,563
26,897
28,019
26,835
29,990
44,724
53,629
71,197
4,814
5,216
7,501
7,769
7,898
9,181
9,597
9,999
17,545
18,627
19,723
20,165
20,535
22,416
22,849
29,021
30,312
33,177
36,446
51,711
59,120
79,501
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
Legal Services
Computer & Mathematical
Life, Physical, & Social Sciences
Architecture & Engineering
Protective Services
Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media
Community & Social Services
Production
Business & Financial Operations
Personal Care & Service
Management services
Healthcare Support
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint
Education, Training, & Library
Transportation & Material Moving
Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians
Construction & Extraction
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Sales and Related
Office & Administrative Support
Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adjusted)
2020 Projected Emp(Adjusted)
2010 Estimated Emp
Projected Job Growth by Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 This chart focuses on job growth only over the ten-year period into the future. The total number of jobs will increase by just over 13% and more than 60,000 jobs. Jobs in Office and Administrative support will grow the most, up by 8,300 or an increase of 12% and accounting for 14% of all new jobs. If you add the seven largest occupational categories shown in “teal” that are related to professional and business services, these will account for 26% of all new jobs. Job growth in the two occupational areas directly tied to healthcare, shown in blue, will account for over 18% of all new jobs. Jobs in trade areas (orange) will account for over 25%.
Projected Montana Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 (Adjusted)
-184
6
421
806
935
989
1,132
1,147
1,369
1,420
1,982
2,124
2,206
2,286
2,293
2,882
4,684
5,491
6,342
6,456
6,987
8,304
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Life, Physical, & Social Sciences
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
Legal Services
Protective Services
Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media
Architecture & Engineering
Computer & Mathematical
Community & Social Services
Management services
Production
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair
Education, Training, & Library
Business & Financial Operations
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint
Transportation & Material Moving
Personal Care & Service
Healthcare Support
Sales and Related
Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians
Construction & Extraction
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Office & Administrative Support
Projected Job Growth Nationally Job growth as projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that is expected nationally for each of the major occupational groups is shown in the chart. Office and administrative support is also the largest occupation nationally and is projected to grow by 10% and account for over 11% of all new jobs. If you add together all of the job growth in areas closely tied to professional and business services (teal), these will account for 28% of all new jobs. Jobs for Healthcare Practitioners and Techs will increase by 26% and account for 10% of all new jobs. This along with jobs in Healthcare support occupations will account for 17% of all new jobs nationally. Job growth in the three areas tied to trade will account for 21% of all new jobs.
Projected U.S. Employment Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20 (thousands)
131
191
253
343
357
365
582
616
664
778
800
1,093
1,173
1,329
1,337
1,404
1,407
1,444
1,869
2,020
2,336
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
Legal
Life, Physical & Social Science
Architecture & Engineering
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media
Production
Protective Services
Community & Social Service
Management
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Computer and Mathematical
Installation, Maintenance & Repair
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Business & Financial Operations
Transportation & Material Moving
Personal Care & Service
Education, Training, & Library
Construction & Extraction
Healthcare Support
Sales & Related
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical
Office & Administrative Support
Total Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Nationally Jobs will be available in the economy because of growth in the shear number of jobs in certain areas of work. But many more openings will occur because people leave jobs, either through retirement or movement to another occupation. The chart here shows the total number of “openings” for jobs across the full range of occupational groups for the nation as a whole. Next to each occupation also is noted what jobs in these groups as a whole pay (median annual wage). Office and administrative support has the most job growth as well as the most job openings, allowing for replacements.
Projected Total U.S Job Openings by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20
291
344
546
798
1,067
1,098
1,196
1,438
1,655
2,026
2,042
2,231
2,555
2,568
2,583
2,760
3,398
3,591
3,597
5,103
6,454
7,450
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)
Legal ($74,580)
Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)
Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)
Community & Social Service ($39,280)
Protective Services ($36,660)
Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)
Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)
Healthcare Support ($24,760)
Production ($30,330)
Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)
Management ($91,440)
Personal Care & Service ($20,640)
Construction & Extraction ($39,080)
Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)
Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)
Food Preparation & Serving Related ($18,770)
Sales & Related ($24,370)
Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)
Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)(Median annual wages for each group in 2010)
Comparison of Median Annual Wages for Jobs within Occupational Groups The 22 occupational groups are arrayed in the chart according to median annual wage as determined in national surveys, with the one with the highest wage at the top and lowest at the bottom. Curiously, while jobs in “services” as opposed to production and manufacturing are thought to be low-paying, jobs in six occupations closely aligned with jobs in professional, administrative, business, and financial services have the highest wages. This reflects that jobs in many of these occupational areas also require the higher levels of education and training.
Major Occupational Groups by Median Annual Wage in the U.S., 2010
$18,770
$19,630
$20,640
$22,490
$24,370
$24,760
$28,400
$30,330
$30,710
$36,660
$39,080
$39,280
$40,120
$42,870
$45,690
$58,490
$58,530
$60,670
$70,610
$73,720
$74,580
$91,440
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
Personal Care & Service
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Sales & Related
Healthcare Support
Transportation & Material Moving
Production
Office & Administrative Support
Protective Services
Construction & Extraction
Community & Social Service
Installation, Maintenance & Repair
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media
Education, Training, & Library
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical
Life, Physical & Social Science
Business & Financial Operations
Architecture & Engineering
Computer and Mathematical
Legal
Management
Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)
Comparing Projected Job Growth by Occupational Group in MT vs. U.S. The chart shows projected percentage growth in jobs for each occupational group in Montana versus nation-wide as projected by BLS. Overall employment will grow by 13.1% in Montana versus 14.3% nationally. Projected growth is very similar for jobs in construction and extraction, healthcare support, healthcare practitioners, and many other areas.
Percentage Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-2020, MT vs. U.S.
13.1%
0.1%
7.3%
7.9%
8.2%
8.8%
9.6%
9.7%
11.7%
10.2%
10.8%
11.1%
8.8%
13.0%
13.4%
23.6%
14.3%
15.6%
17.1%
17.8%
29.5%
21.5%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Life, Physical, & Social Science Occup
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Occup
Management Occupations
Education, Training, & Library Occup
Transportation & Material Moving Occup
Legal Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Occup
Office & Administrative Support Occup
Sales and Related Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports, & Media Occup
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint. Occup
Production Occupations
Community & Social Services Occup
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Architecture & Engineering Occup
Food Preparation & Serving Related Occup
Personal Care & Service Occupations
Computer & Mathematical Occup
Healthcare Support Occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations
Overall Employment
Source: U.S. data from BLS and Montana data from MT Dept. of Labor and Industry (adjusted)
MT
US
Job Projections for Montana by “Groupings” of Occupational Groups This chart organizes the 22 major occupational groups and jobs estimated for 2010 and projected for 2020 (adjusted) into six overall groupings including: Administrative, Management, Financial
Professional, Technical, Scientific, Creative
Healthcare and Healthcare Support
Sales, Hospitality, Food services, Personal Care
Transportation, Production, Construction, Maintenance, Ag and Forestry
Montana Jobs for Major Occupational Groups by Grouping, 2010 & 2020 Proj (adj) (US med wage)
4,814
17,545
22,416
22,849
30,312
36,446
19,723
51,711
59,120
9,181
9,999
29,021
20,535
33,177
5,216
7,501
7,769
7,898
9,597
18,627
20,165
79,501
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)
Production ($30,330)
Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)
Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)
Construction & Extraction ($39,080)
TRANSPT/PROD/CONST/MAINT/AG/FOR/FISH
Personal Care & Service ($20,640)
Food Preparation & Serving Related ($24,370)
Sales & Related ($24,370)
SALES/HOSPT/FOOD SV./PERSONAL CARE/ARTS
Protective Services ($36,660)
Community & Social Service ($39,280)
Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)
EDUC/TRAINING/POLICE & FIRE/SOCIAL SERV
Healthcare Support ($24,760)
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)
HEALTHCARE & HEALTHCARE SUPPORT
Legal ($74,580)
Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)
Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)
Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)
Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)
PROFESSIONAL/TECHNICAL/SCIENTIFIC/CREATIVE
Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)
Management ($91,440)
Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)
ADMINISTRATIVE/MANAGEMENT/FINANCIAL
Source: Swanson using MDLI estimates and projections (Sept. 2011)(adj. to healthcare, office/admin, production, extract)
2020
2010
Detailed Occupations where job growth will be greatest in Montana Only 40 of 840 detailed occupations have projected growth for 2010-20 greater than 380 jobs. These account for 45% of all primary jobs in Montana and will account for 55% of all job growth and 44% of all replacement openings. Those in healthcare services have a blue background. Those in professional and business services have a light blue or teal background. Those in sales and retail trade have a light brown or tan background. Those in education, training, and community and protective services have yellow backgrounds. And those somewhere in transportation, construction, extraction, production, and agriculture have gray backgrounds. The single occupation with the highest projected growth is “registered nurses,” projected to add over 2,000 jobs. Four others in healthcare (blue backgrounds) also will add a lot of jobs: home health aides (1,643); nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants (1,416); licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses (678); dental assistants (383); and medical assistants (381).1/ Job projections data from the Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry web site (and their Sept., 2011, jobs projections)2/ Projections data from MDLI with adjustments made by Swanson (July, 2012)
Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &
Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3
Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2
Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1
Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2
Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2
Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4
Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1
Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2
Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4
General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1
Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2
SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360
Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%
Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &
Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3
Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470
Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &
Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3
Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2
Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010
$28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2
Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1
Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2
Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3
3 1 1
Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2
Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2
Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4
Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1
2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2
Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4
Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1
Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1
2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1
Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2
Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A
31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2
Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4
General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1
Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200
$29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4
General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1
Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2
SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360
Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%
2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2
SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360
Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%
Education and training for projected jobs Education and training requirements and required work experience for these detailed occupations also is indicated for each of the 40 detailed occupations with the greatest projected increase in jobs. The education column (maroon colored numbers) indicates the “typical education required for entry” into each of the occupations. The next column under training with the numbers shown in “red” indicates how much experience in related or relevant work is ordinarily required for entry. The last column with numbers in “blue” indicates years of “on-the-job experience” ordinarily required for “competency” in the various occupations. All of these ratings are derived from national survey work done in conjunction with development of the SOC system and was retrieved on the BLS web site. For the 40 detailed occupations with the largest projected growth in Montana, only two require a college degree – accountants and auditors (requiring a Bachelor’s degree for entry or Code 6) and elementary school teachers (also requiring a Bachelor’s degree). Two require an Associate’s degree (Code 5), including registered nurses and general operations managers. So, only four of the 40 occupations require either an Associate’s or Bachelor’s degree for entry.
The coding system used in the tables for education (typical education required for entry, as contained in the SOC system) is as follows:
Code 1: Less than a high school diplomaCode 2: High school diploma or equivalentCode 3: Postsecondary non-degree awardCode 4: Some college, but no degreeCode 5: Associate’s degreeCode 6: Bachelor’s degreeCode 7: Master’s degreeCode 8: Doctoral or professional degree
Of the 40 detailed jobs with the biggest growth, fully half (20) ordinarily require only a high school diploma for entry (Code 2). And 13 of the 40 require less than a high school diploma. The figure below shows the total number of jobs in Montana in 2010 and 2020 for each educational level assigned to each detailed occupation.
The upper chart shows the share of 2020 jobs projected for both Montana and the U.S. as a whole by education requirement. Not only are education requirements for Montana jobs not changing much from 2010 to 2020, but they are moderately below education requirements for jobs projected nationally by 2020. For example, nationally 16 percent of all jobs in 2020 will require a Bachelor’s degree versus only 12.2 percent of Montana jobs. On the other hand, the share of all 2010 jobs requiring less than a high school diploma is 29 percent of all jobs in Montana versus 25.2 percent of all jobs nationally. At the highest end of the spectrum the share of jobs requiring a doctoral or professional degree is 2.8 percent in Montana versus 3.3 percent nationally. Looking at education requirements of new jobs only projected from growth between 2010 and 2020 (lower chart), of the projected job growth nation-wide, 18.6 percent will require a Bachelor’s degree, 2.2 percent will require a Master’s degree, and 4.5 percent will require a Doctoral or Professional degree. These are all higher percentages than for job growth projected in Montana. Whereas 30.9 percent of all Montana job growth is in jobs requiring less than a high school diploma. This compares with 23.1 percent nationally.
Education Requirements for Entry into 2020 Jobs, Montana vs. U.S.
29.0%
43.7%
5.0%
0.4%
5.6%
12.2%
1.3%2.8%
25.2%
43.0%
4.7%
0.6%
5.8%
16.0%
1.5%3.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Less thanH.S. Diploma
(Code 1)
H.S. Diplomaor Equivalent
(2)
Postsecondnon-degreeaward (3)
SomeCollege, nodegree (4)
Associate'sDegree
(Code 5)
Bachelor'sDegree
(Code 6)
Master'sDegree
(Code 7)
Doctoral orProfes
Degree (8)
MT U.S.
Fig. 34: Education Required for Projected Job Growth from 2010-20, MT vs. U.S.
30.9%
39.8%
6.4%
0.4%
5.9%
12.0%
1.4%
3.1%
23.1%
38.3%
5.6%
0.7%
7.1%
18.6%
2.2%
4.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Less than H.S. Diploma (Code 1)
H.S. Diploma or Equivalent (2)
Postsecond non-degree award (3)
Some College, no degree (4)
Associate's Degree (Code 5)
Bachelor's Degree (Code 6)
Master's Degree (Code 7)
Doctoral or Profes Degree (8)
U.S.
MT
Postsecondary education required for Montana job openings as projected There are 23 detailed occupations out of the 840 that are projected to have more than 400 total openings in Montana between 2010 and 2020 and that require post-secondary educations. These are shown at the right. At the top are ones requiring doctoral or professional degrees (Code 8) and there are two: Lawyers with projected openings totaling 804 and pharmacists with openings of 416. The U.S. median wage for both of these exceeds $100,000. Eleven of these require a Bachelor’s degree for entry (Code 6). These range from elementary school teachers (1,562 openings) and secondary school teachers (1,308) to accountants (1,290), recreation workers (530), human resource specialists (499), civil engineers (458), computer network systems and data communications analysts (411), and child and family social workers (404). U.S. median wages for these range from as high as $77,560 for civil engineers to as low as $22,260 for recreation workers. Some of these requiring Bachelor’s degrees also have further requirements to establish “competency,” also shown in the table to the far right. Those with Code 5 in the blue numbers are ones where a residency or internship is ordinarily required to show this competency.
Detailed occupations in Figure 36 requiring Associate’s degrees include registered nurses, general operations managers, forest and conservation technicians, construction managers, and computer support specialists. Jobs with the most openings that require some type of postsecondary, non-degree award include nursing aides, licensed practical and vocational nurses, dental assistants, and hairdressers and cosmetologists.
Trends Shaping Future Job Growth in Montana Population Growth and Aging Factors constraining Future Labor Force Expansion in MontanaThe U.S. labor force will grow slowly and become much older as the baby-boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1963) ages. There are 77 million baby boomers and they will move entirely from the “prime age” for labor force participation to the 55-years-and-older group by 2020, with lower participation rates. This effect is somewhat offset by rising labor force participation among older workers. Montana experienced almost unparalleled economic expansion for most of the period since the early 1990s, leading up to the recent national recession and slowdown. This growth accommodated as well as spurred steady growth in the state’s labor force. Between 2010 and 2020 the 65 and older population of Montana will rise from about 15% to 20%, and continue to increase to 23 to 24% by 2025. The ratio between the size of Montana’s labor force and the population under 65 was consistently about 60% through the ‘90s and up until more recently, where it rose to 61%. This will continue to rise to about 64% by 2020, reflecting additions to the work force by older adults working beyond 65. A total labor force of about 540,000 in 2020 with 4% unemployment would provide employment of 518,000. Employment Trends in Montana leading up to the RecessionTotal employment in Montana (including all full- and part-time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s as compared with 20% growth nationwide, and by over 12% in the most recent decade (2000-10), as compared to only 5% growth nationally. Looking at the path Montana’s economy was on in terms of job growth over this recent ten-year period, prior to the downturn (2000-08) - the largest increase in jobs among sectors was by construction where jobs grew by 16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all new jobs. Of course, construction also was among the sectors hardest hit by the recent recession with large job losses in the last several years, beginning in 2008. Jobs in health care services grew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs). Jobs in real estate services increased by 11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and in professional and technical services by 11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and in administrative and waste services by 9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five major sectors together – construction, health care, real estate services, professional and technical services, and administrative and waste services - accounted for 61% of all new jobs in Montana over this period.
Projected Industry Employment GrowthNot all industries or occupations are expected to recover completely; others are expected to recover and have continued growth. With adjustments to healthcare, manufacturing, and mining jobs, total jobs in Montana would rise to almost 480,000 by 2020 – an increase of 59,000 jobs and with 83% of these new jobs somewhere in services. Among industry groupings, Healthcare jobs will increase the most, rising by 15,637, a 25% increase, and 27% of all new jobs in Montana. Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality will increase by 11,080, an increase of 20%, and 19% of all new jobs. The 3rd largest increase in jobs will be in Professional and Business services, with these rising by 10,129, an increase of 26% and accounting for 17% of all new jobs. Construction jobs will increase by 7,221, a 32% increase and 12% of all new jobs. But, even with this increase, the total construction jobs in 2020 will still lag the peak number in 2007. If you add Leisure and Hospitality with Trade, their job growth will account for 29% of all new jobs. If you add together Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Information, these together will account for 22% of all new jobs. Over 3/4ths of all new jobs will be in Trade, Business services, and Healthcare.
Projected Job Growth by Major Occupational GroupOf the 22 major occupational groups, the one with the highest number of jobs in Office and Administrative Support and these are projected to grow to 79,500 jobs by 2020, up from 71,200 in 2010. Jobs in trade-related occupations also are large in number. Construction and Extraction jobs will exceed 36,000 by 2020.The total number of jobs will increase by just over 13% and more than 60,000 jobs. Jobs in Office and Administrative support will grow the most, up by 8,300 or an increase of 12% and accounting for 14% of all new jobs. If you add the seven largest occupational categories shown in “teal” that are related to professional and business services, these will account for 26% of all new jobs. Job growth in the two occupational areas directly tied to healthcare, shown in blue, will account for over 18% of all new jobs. Jobs in trade areas (orange) will account for over 25%.
What increasingly really counts in local area economic development in this new economy?
The Quality of your community .. infrastructure, schools, neighborhoods, commercial development, streets, parks, arts and cultural amenities, identity, energy, vitality, multi-dimensionality, visual appeal, surrounding environs, … The Quality of your work force .. diverse, appropriately educated, and adaptive with training and education opportunities at all levels and nearby multi-faceted, well-delivered programs in workforce development The Quality of your surrounding environment .. not just parks and attractive, well-planned neighborhoods, downtowns, and commercial districts, but landscapes and natural amenities like streams, lakes, mountains, forests, open spaces, etc. Although most forces driving change in the economy are supra-community in nature – technological change, transportation developments, new products, major demographic shifts, global financial forces, etc. - so much of what really counts in area economic vitality .. is within the reach of community leaders and decision makers. .. they can help create and sustain the types of positive attributes that attract, nurture, and stimulate economic energy and vitality over time.
- Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of Montana