Dr. Jyoti Parikh - USAID SARI/Energy Integration · Dr. Jyoti Parikh Executive Director Integrated...
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South Asia Investor’s Workshop on “Cross-Border Electricity Trade” South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration(SARI/EI) 24 th -25 th September, 2014 |New Delhi, India Dr. Jyoti Parikh Executive Director Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)
Transcript of Dr. Jyoti Parikh - USAID SARI/Energy Integration · Dr. Jyoti Parikh Executive Director Integrated...
South Asia Investor’s Workshop on “Cross-Border Electricity Trade”South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration(SARI/EI)
24th-25th September, 2014 |New Delhi, India
Dr. Jyoti ParikhExecutive Director
Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)
IRADe , a think tank set up in 2002
Conducts multi disciplinary research and policy analysis
Multi stakeholders problems and approaches involving government, non-governmental organizations, corporations, academia and financial institutions.
Engages in national and international dialogue for consensus building
Urban Infrastructure
& Services
Climate Change &
Environment
Energy & Power
Systems
Poverty Alleviation &
Gender
Agriculture & Food Security
About IRADe
Key Thematic Areas
Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)Regional ‘Think Tank’ that works with ‘Action Tanks’!
KEY ACTIVITIES
• Multi-disciplinary and Multi-stakeholders engagement.
• Research and analysis for decision support
• Research in action, monitoring and evaluation of projects
• Trainings and Capacity Building
• Policy analysis and Dissemination
SARI/EI promotes regional integration of Energy Systems. SARI/EI participating countries- Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
IRADe is the implementing partner for the fourth phase (2012-2017) of SARI/EI program through a cooperative agreement with U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
Focus is on a demand driven “bottom up” development paradigm specific for cross-border power project development.
SARI/EI Framework
Project Steering Committee (PSC)
TASK FORCE -1
Coordination of Policy, Legal and Regulatory
Framework
TASK FORCE-2
Advancement of Transmission Systems
Interconnection
TASK FORCE-3
South Asia Regional Electricity Markets
Highly Consultative & Participatory Approach
SARI/EI Framework
Apex body that provides overall strategic direction and support for SARI/EI program PSC member includes: Senior level officials from respective South Asia country governments Representatives of regional institutions (e.g. SAARC Energy Centre) Representatives of multilateral donors (e.g. ADB and World Bank) Independent Energy Experts/Diplomats
Project Steering Committee
Includes regional stakeholder representatives (such as national governments, electricity utilities, regulatory commissions, power market institutions, etc) Task force meetings: Follow highly structured, consultative, participative and demand-driven approach Pave way for identifying needs for technical analysis, research and studies
Task Forces
PSC
TASK FORCE -1
TASK FORCE-2
TASK FORCE-3
Hydro Electric Potential in South Asia (in GW)
India 150
Nepal 83
Pakistan59
Bhutan 30
Afghanistan25
Sri Lanka 2 Bangladesh0.3
Total Hydro Electric Potential of around 350 GW
Opportunities for CBET in South Asia due to Diversity in Demand & Supply
• Difference in time zones (15 to 30 minutes)
• Difference in daily load curve
• Difference in weekends and annual festivals
Peak time differences
• Sufficient to excess hydro capacity during monsoon
• Need of thermal support during lean period (dry season)
Seasonal differences
• Optimal hydro thermal mix- betterload balancing during peak and off- peak load
Hydro thermal mix
Demand Side Supply Side
Benefits of Cross-Border Electricity Trade
Economic and Financial Benefits
Technical and Operational Benefits
Environmental Benefits
Energy security due to large trade possibilities
Diversified generation mix
Reduction in Load Shedding
Reduction in spinning reserves
Efficient management of peak energy deficit
Improved system reliability
Power availability at competitive price
High export income Avoided generation
capacity and T&D infrastructure
Less exposure to volatileinternational energy prices
Reduction in Current Account Deficit
Reduction in CO2
emissions Less Impact on Local and
Global environment Renewable Energy
Development Improvement in Social
Indicators
Current Status of Power Sector Cooperation in South Asia
S. No. Countries Interconnection Description Capacity (MW) Status
1 Bhutan -IndiaGrid reinforcement to evacuate
power from Punatsangchhu I & II
Reinforcement
of 2,100 MW
Under
Implementation
2 Nepal -IndiaDhalkebar-Muzaffarpur 400 kV
line1,000 MW
Under
Implementation
3Sri Lanka-
India
400kV, 127 km HVDC line with
submarine cable
500 MW in the
short-termPlanning
4Bangladesh-
India
400kV HVDC back-to-back
asynchronous link500 MW Completed
5 India-Pakistan220 kV in the short-term (could
be upgraded to 400 kV later)250-500 MW
Yet to be
formally
discussed
SARI/EI TRACK 2 STUDIESEconomic Benefits of CBET to
Bhutan and Nepal
Methodology
Assessment of electricity balance i.e. surplus or deficit situation for Bhutan and Nepal isundertaken for projecting economic benefit from Cross Border Electricity Trade betweenIndia and Bhutan, and India and Nepal
Electricity Demand Forecast up to 2050
Electricity Generation
Forecast up to 2050
Surplus/ Deficit Forecast
IRADe Activity Analysis Model
In the current work we only consider one way input from Nepal & Bhutan to Indiathrough higher importable surplus generation, thus this is still a partial analysis.
Methodology- Electricity Demand Forecast
For Bhutan: Using time series regression analysis For Nepal: Using NEA’s demand forecast growth rate
Data Collection Analysis Forecast
Past Electricity Demand and forecast Population trend and forecast GDP trend and forecast
Data Source:• Ministry and Govt. bodies reports for Bhutan and Nepal• United Nations Population Prospects
Methodology- Electricity Supply Forecast
Past generation trend and PLF
Generation Potential
Plans and policy for capacity additions Targets achieved against planned capacity additions
Data Collection and Analysis Phase
Capacity Addition Plans
Year wise electricity generation based on : Assumed PLF Upcoming generation capacities
Generation Projection
Forecast
• United Nations Statistics Database • Presentations of various Ministry representatives of Bhutan and Nepal
Key Assumptions:
Existing installed hydro capacity: 1,488 MW
o Exports surplus electricity after meeting domestic requirement
o Target of installed hydro capacity of 26,534 MW to be achieved by 2035 (capacity target as
per government’s NTGMP 2012)
o PLF for Hydro power generation assumed to be 53%
Bhutan Electricity Demand-Supply Analysis up to 2050
Supply Side
o Population: as per UN World Population Prospects
Population in 2010: 7.2 Lakhs
Population in 2050: 9.8 Lakhs
o Observed GDP growth of 8.2% (period 2003-12)
Demand Side
Electricity Demand-Supply Forecast up to 2050- Bhutan
6
19
53
76
110104
94
79
24
6 913
20
29
44
8
23
58
85
123 123 123 123
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In B
illio
n U
nit
Electricity Surplus (in BU) Electricity Demand (in BU) Electricity Generation (in BU)
Annual Gains from Electricity Export- Bhutan
17
58
158
228
330311
281
238
69,994
182,911
254,143
356,234 326,874
290,977
243,037
-40,000
10,000
60,000
110,000
160,000
210,000
260,000
310,000
360,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
Elec
tric
ity
Exp
ort
ear
nin
gs p
er c
apit
a in
BTN
In B
illio
n B
TN
Annual Electricity Export Earnings in Billion BTN
Electricity Export Earnings per Capita in BTN (on secondary axis)
1 INR = 1 BTNAssumption: Export of electricity to India at BTN 3 per kWh.
Electricity Export Revenue share in GDP (at 2005 constant price)- Bhutan
Assumptions: Growth rate for GDP: 8.2% (observed during period: 2003-12) Average electricity export price for year 2005: BTN 2 per kWh
32%
59% 57% 56%
36%
22%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In p
erce
nta
ge
Share of Electricity Exports in Total GDP
1 INR = 1 BTN
Impact of Delay in CBET- 5 Year Delay Scenario for Bhutan
1793
7574
740
5774
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2030 2050
In B
illio
n B
TN
Cumulative Electricity Export Earnings- Base Case
Cumulative Electricity Export Earnings- Delay Case
Cumulative Electricity Export Earnings
Loss of 1,800 Billion BTN
1 INR = 1 BTN
Nepal Electricity Demand-Supply Analysis up to 2050
Key Assumptions:
Existing installed capacity: 770 MW
o Exports surplus electricity after meeting domestic requirement
o Target of 37,628 MW hydro capacity addition to be achieved by 2034 (capacity target as per
20 year Hydro Development Plan, 2009)
o PLF for Hydro power generation assumed to be 54.4 %
Supply Side
o Demand grows at a CAGR of 8.1% (as per NEA Annual Report)
Demand Side
Electricity Demand Supply Forecast up to 2050- Nepal
-1
24
75
119
153 149138 115
7 10 14 2131
46
68
100
5
35
90
140
184195
206215
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In B
illio
n U
nit
Electricity Surplus (in BU) Electricity Demand (in BU)
Electricity Generation (in BU)
Deficit of 1.3 BU
Annual Gains from Electricity Export- Nepal
117
362
570
736 715663
553
3,904
11,487
17,338
21,628 20,402
18,489
15,146
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
20
42
20
44
20
46
20
48
20
50 Elec
tric
ity
Exp
ort
ear
nin
gs p
er c
apit
a in
NP
R
In B
illio
n N
PR
Annual Electricity Export Earnings in Billion NPR
Electricity Export Earnings per Capita in NPR (on secondary axis)
1 INR = 1.60 NPR
Assumption: Export of electricity to India at NPR 4.8 per kWh (INR 3 per kWh).
Electricity Export Revenue share in GDP (at 2005 constant price)- Nepal
Assumptions: Growth rate for GDP: 8.2% (observed during period: 2003-12) Average electricity export price for year 2005: NPR 5.21 per kWh
11%
29%
36%38%
30%
23%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In p
erce
nta
ge
Share of Electricty Export Revenue in Total GDP
1 INR = 1.60 NPR
Impact of Delay in CBET- 5 Year Delay Scenario for Nepal
4005
17518
1440
12976
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2030 2050
In B
illio
n N
PR
Cumulative Electricity Export Earnings- Base Case
Cumulative Electricity Export Earnings- Delay Case
Cumulative Electricity Export Earnings
1 INR = 1.60 NPR
Loss of 4,542 Billion NPR
Benefits to India from CBET- Based on IRADe Activity Analysis ModelScenario assumption:
Scenarios Description India’s Electricity Demand by 2050
(in BU)
DAU50 Assumes Dynamics as Usual Behaviour (DAU) and projects till 2050 13,119
CBET Electricity imports from Nepal & Bhutan are assumed in addition to DAU50 assumptions
13,110
CC-CarbonConstraint
A Carbon Constraint (CC) of 85 GT on cumulative emissions from electricity sector is imposed on the DAU50 scenario
10,300
CC-CBET Electricity imports from Nepal & Bhutan are assumed in addition to Carbon Constraint scenario
10,345
CBET Contribution by 2030 and 2050:
Year Share of Electricity Imports in India’s Electricity Demand (in %)
Cumulative Reduction in CO2
Emissions (in MT)
CBET scenario CC-CBET scenario
CBET scenario w.r.t. DAU50
CC-CBET scenario w.r.t. to
CC scenario
2030 5.9% 6.1% 1,723 830
2050 1.5% 1.9% 7,136 4
Conclusion
CBET benefits all participating countries
Small window to tap advantages from CBET
Delay in CBET will impact Export income from electricity Direct and indirect GDP gains Reduction in CO2 emissions
“Cross Border Electricity Trade – There’s No Time To Lose”
For Bhutan: Using time series regression analysis For Nepal: Using NEA’s demand forecast growth rate
Data Collection Analysis Forecast
Past Electricity Demand Population trend and forecast GDP trend and forecast Electricity demand forecast by Govt. bodies and utilities
Data Source:• Ministry and Govt. bodies reports for Bhutan and Nepal• United Nations Population Prospects• United Nations Statistics Database • Presentations of various Ministry representatives of Bhutan and Nepal
Methodology- Electricity Demand Forecast
Past generation trend and PLF PLF for upcoming generation capacity
Generation Potential
Govt. plans and policy for capacity additions Identification of targets achieved against planned capacity additions
Data Collection and Analysis Phase
Capacity Addition Plans
Year wise capacity addition Year wise electricity generation based on : Assumed PLF Upcoming generation capacities
Generation Projection
Forecast
Identification of plan wise Capacity
Addition
Identification of Plant Load factor
Identification of expected year of
commissioning for upcoming capacities
Forecasting expected generation
(in MU)
Data Source:• Ministry and Govt. bodies reports for Bhutan and Nepal• Presentations of various Ministry representatives of Bhutan and Nepal
Methodology- Electricity Supply Forecast
Exportable Electricity Surplus from Bhutan and Nepal
19
53
76
110 104 9479
24
75
119
153 149138
115
44
128
195
263252
232
194
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In B
illio
n U
nit
Bhutan Electricity Surplus in BU Nepal Electricity Surplus in BU
Total Electricity Surplus in BU
1990 2000 2010 2012 (Base Year)
2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricity Demand (in MU)
142 481 1655 1854 3688 8684 19682 43800
Decadal Electricity Demand Growth Rate
- 12.9% 15.8% - 8.9% 8.9% 8.5% 8.3%
Population (in thousand)
536 564 717 740 822 898 950 980
Decadal Population Growth Rate
- 0.7% 2.4% - 1.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3%
GDP (at Constant Price) in Million BTN
14600 24679 56810 64518 120893 265026 581000 1273692
Decadal GDP Growth Rate
- 5.9% 8.8% - 7.8% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%
GDP* per Capita (in BTN)
27239 43756 79233 87183 147072 295129 611579 1299685
Electricity Demandper Capita (in kWh)
265 852 2308 2505 4487 9670 20718 44694
Electricity Demand/GDP*
0.0097 0.0194 0.0291 0.0287 0.0305 0.0327 0.0338 0.0343
Forecast
Source: Electricity Demand from Statistical Year Book, Bhutan; Population from United Nations Population Prospects, 2012; GDP at constant price for year 2005 from United Nations Statistics Database.
* GDP at Constant price
Electricity Indicator- Bhutan
Electricity Indicator- Nepal
1990 2000 2010 2012(Base Year)
2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricity Demand (in MU)
- - 4367 5195 10177 21097 45850 100102
Decadal Electricity Demand Growth Rate
- - - - 8.6% 7.6% 8.1% 8.1%
Population (in thousand)
18111 23184 26846 27473 30001 32853 35053 36479
Decadal Population Growth Rate
- 2.5% 1.4% - 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%
GDP (at Constant Price) in Million NPR
304802 496687 734978 797013 1115551 1698318 2585526 3936213
Decadal GDP* Growth Rate
- 4.9% 3.8% - 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
GDP* per Capita (in NPR)
16829 21423 27377 29010 37183 51694 73760 107903
Electricity Demandper Capita (in kWh)
- - 163 189 339 642 1308 2744
Electricity Demand/GDP*
- - 0.0059 0.0065 0.0091 0.0124 0.0177 0.0254
Forecast
Source: Electricity Demand from NEA Annual Report, Nepal; Population from United Nations Population Prospects, 2012; GDP at constant price for year 2005 from United Nations Statistics Database.
* GDP at Constant price
Electricity Indicator- India
1990 2000 2010 2012 (Base Year)
Electricity Demand (in MU) 247762 480430 830594 995500
Decadal Electricity Demand Growth Rate
- 6.7% 5.6% -
Population (in thousand) 868891 1042262 1205625
Decadal Population Growth Rate 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% -
GDP (at Constant Price) in Million INR 15482590 26375002 55205009 60599850
Decadal GDP* Growth Rate 5.8% 6% 7.9%
GDP* per Capita (in INR) 17819 25306 45790 49038
Electricity Consumption per Capita (in kWh)
329.2 Year 2002-599.2
Year 2009- 819 883.6
Electricity Demand/GDP* 0.0160 0.0182 0.0150 0.0164
Source: Electricity Demand from CEA, India; Population from United Nations Population Prospects, 2012; GDP at constant price for year 2005 from United Nations Statistics Database.
* GDP at Constant price
