Dr. Jack GwoDr. Jack Gwo(His work may be mis-presented by an ugly George) (His work may be mis-presented by an ugly George)

Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty Analysis of First-Principle of First-Principle Hydrological ModelsHydrological ModelsJ. P. (Jack) GwoJ. P. (Jack) GwoUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore Co.University of Maryland, Baltimore Co.Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringDepartment of Civil & Environmental EngineeringBaltimore, MD 21250Baltimore, MD 21250Email: Email: jgwo@umbc.edujgwo@umbc.eduPhone: 410-455-3323Phone: 410-455-3323

Sources of UncertaintySources of Uncertainty

Natural RandomnessNatural Randomness DataData Model ParametersModel Parameters Model Physicochemical ProcessesModel Physicochemical Processes Model PredictionsModel Predictions

Nested LHS Model Calibration Nested LHS Model Calibration & Uncertainty Analysis& Uncertainty Analysis

Prior PDF (model parameter)

Latin-Hypercube Experiment Design (Maximin Distance)

WASH123D

Ensemble and Bayesian Statistics

Converged? P&M Uncertainty

Criteria Meet?STOP

YES

NO

Posterior PDF

Example ApplicationExample Application

Contaminant Transport Through Fractured Rocks Contaminant Transport Through Fractured Rocks (Limestone & Shale)(Limestone & Shale)

Parameter UncertaintyParameter Uncertainty

Process UncertaintyProcess UncertaintyMatrix Diffusion

Contaminant Transport

Model Prediction Model Prediction UncertaintyUncertainty

Fracture

Matrix

Workload EstimateWorkload Estimate

Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis – 2 Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis – 2 FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr for 2 years or a total of $132,000), not for 2 years or a total of $132,000), not including the startup cost of model including the startup cost of model construction.construction.

Uncertainty Analysis Only – 1 FTE Uncertainty Analysis Only – 1 FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr for 1 (research associate at $66,000/yr for 1 year).year).