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Opportunities for Agricultural Productivity under Increasing CO2Glenn Fitzgerald, Agriculture Research, DEDJTR1

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AGFACE TeamGlenn Fitzgerald, ARDMichael Tausz, UMJoe Panozzo, ARDCassandra Walker, ARDNathan Neumann, ARDGarry O'Leary, ARDSabine Tausz-Posch, UMRoger Armstrong, ARDMahabubur Mollah, ARDPiotr Trebicki, BRDChris Korte, ARDDebra Partington, ARDSimone Dalton, ARDMaryse Bourgault, UMMarkus Loew, UMHelena Kozlowski, ARDEileen Perry, ARDRussel Argall, ARDRoger Perris, ARDAsh Wallace, FSVJames Nuttall, FSVMel Munn, ARDSam Henty, UM

Ash Purdue, ARDJason Ellifson, ARDKeisha Savage, ARDJames Stevenson, ARDHelale Bahrami, UMAlireza Houshmandfar, UMAllene Macabuhay, UMRebecca Vandegeer, UMPramesha Madurangi, UMOsmin Torres, UMShihab Uddin, UMShahnaj Parvin, UMSachin Chavan, UWSMembers at large: Rob Norton, UM (IPNI), David McNeil, Univ Tas; Jo Luck, CRC plant biosec ; Saman Seneweera, USQ; Mark Nicolas, UM; Jason Brand, ARD; Sukumar Chakraborty, CSIRO; Angela Freeman, BRD; Grant Halloway, BRD; Janine Fitzpatrick, ARD; Justine Ellis, ARD, Jennifer Briggs, ARD; Nimesha Fernando, UM; Humaira Sultana, UM; Chamindathee L Thilakarathne, UM; Jian Jin, La Trobe; Kyla Finlay, BRD, Friday Obanor, CSIRO; Raymond Lam, UM; Clayton Butterly, La Trobe; Caixian Tang, La Trobe; Alan Yen, BRD; Narelle Nancarrow, BRD; Paul Melloy, CSIRO; Simone Vassiliadis, BRD, Surya Kant, BRD; Lancelot Maphosa, BRD; Peter Howie, UM

GRDCDept of AgricultureAustralian Research Council (ARC)CSIROUniversity of MelbourneAGFACE scientists and technical staffAcknowledgements

AGFACE works with the following organisations:

CSIRONASA/USDA (AgMIPS)Rothamsted (UK)Other FACE facilities: Japan, US, Germany, China, NZUniversities: Freiburg and Groningen (Germany), Harvard, Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Idaho (US)La Trobe, Monash, Uni MelbPlant and Food Research (NZ)Collaborators

Prediction is very difficult. Especially about the future Neils Bohr, Danish physicist and 1922 Nobel Prize winner.

2050What is the problem?Study/understand the issuesSolve the problem before it arrivesMaximise the positives, minimise the negatives

Horsham& Walpeup

Australian Wheat BeltAustralian wheat ~ $5.5 billion annually

Atmospheric CO2 levels are rising: 1870 ~ 280 ppm2015 ~ 405 ppm2050 = 550 ppm

A Changing Environment

450500550IPCC

40%

40%

20152050

A Changing EnvironmentHow can we adapt?

Temperature increasing Rainfall decreasing (and more variable) Extreme heat events predicted to become more frequent

What will be the effects of eCO2 and interactions with environment on Australian grains and

CO2 decreases the amount of Rubisco needed for photosynthesis=Less nitrogen in the leaves and grainHigher CO2 Reduces plant N and Increases NUE

Less N needed to produce same yield ( NUE)CO2WaterSugarOxygen++=Nutrients+rubiscoAffects grain protein, pests, bread quality, micronutrients

Photosynthesis

CO2 decreases the time needed for stomata to remain open=Less water lost to the atmosphereHigher CO2 Increases WUE

Berkeley 2012But, there are strong interactions with heat and timing of waterCO2WaterSugarOxygen++=Affects yield, root growth, canopy temperatureNutrients+

Photosynthesis

CO2 increases ability of plant to capture C (C3 plants)=More C into plant with less effort

Berkeley 2012More growth - as long as other factors not limitingCO2WaterSugarOxygen++=Affects biomass, yield, root growth, fertilizer requirementsNutrients+

aCO2eCO2Higher CO2 Increases CUE (growth)

Photosynthesis

All life is an experiment.The more experiments you make, the better.Ralph Waldo EmersonAnd computer models

Glasshouses Open topped chambers Gradient tunnels Enclosed Chambers

Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)

FACE provides the most realistic assessment of elevated CO2 on plant/crop responses because plants are not enclosed and we can study the whole system.Techniques to Study Elevated CO2

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RiceFACE (Japan)

ChinaFACE

PastureFACE (NZ)

SoyFACE (US)

DurumFACE (It)

FalFACE (Ge)

AGFACE (Aus)

World Crop FACE Sites

Elevated atmospheric CO2 around crops to measure response to:YieldTrait testingGrain/bread qualityHeat extremesFertiliser useWater usePests and diseasesSoil TypeAGFACE: Laboratory without wallsWheat, peas, lentils, canola

7.5 ha

Australian Grains Free Air CO2 Enrichment

Horsham: 2007-17Walpeup: 2008-09

2007-2009: Wheat2010-2013: Wheat & pea2014-17: Wheat (traits, N fertilizer), lentils, canola

SoilFACEAGFACE History

16Only FACE to study so many interactions simultaneouslyeCO2 with interactions least studiedTarget 550 ppm in 2050 but now more likely in 2040-2045

AGFACE Results

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

What not to do with a UAV

G x E x M for AdaptationG (genetics): agronomic response, trait testing, understand mechanisms

E (environment): CO2, water, temperature, N

M (management): N management, modelling (climate, sowing date, cultivar type)

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Impacts of eCO2Ainsworth & Long, 2005

21This important summary provides the most up to date view of the current knowledge in general of how plant based systems will respond to climate change. These are analyses of many FACE experiments on a range of systems. Note particularly the effects on growth of C3 grasses (of which wheat is an example) which suggests a 10% increase in dry matter production. In terms of crop yields, the estimates are in the range of 0 to 35% increase in yield, although the effects of drought and nitrogen are highly significant in the final outcome. For example, under low N situations, depending on water supply, yield can change from -30% to +50%. We need to get a better appreciation of this to enable our farming systems to pre-adapt to the climate we will face.This will be the focus of our research on the FACE systems getting an understanding on how nitrogen, genotype, water and temperature interact with elevated CO2. The team involves engineers, modellers, agronomists, pathologists, quality assessments, breeders and farmers with the focus on generating data sets that help fill in the blanks about the mechanisms that cause interactions so that we can then make modelled assessments of the strategies to address future production systems.

Grain yield g/m2

No responseBig response

Different Varieties Respond Differently

ambient

elevated

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% response due to eCO2Inform pre-breeders to target yield components and accelerate breeding for CO2.Mechanisms to Inform Adaptation

Trait testingTraits: Tillering capacity, TUE, WSC, roots, NUE, grain proteinSuperior transpiration efficiency trait may become an advantage in environments where this is not evident under current CO2

2% yield advantage under ambient CO219% yield advantage under elevated CO2Yield Hartog (not TE)

Yield advantage Drysdale (TE)

Reduced protein in all varietiesGrain Quality: Varieties

25Grain protein and leaf N reduced due to eCO2.Yitpi only, across all site years. Deep blue = non water stressed seasons Horsham, light blue = stressed seasons Horsham, yellow = WalpeupPeas either no reduction in leaf and grain N or very small (2-5%)N in leaves lower too. Less N to be translocated or mechanism in plant that interacts with environment?

Greater reductions in drier environmentsGrain Quality: EnvironmentDry = yellow, Wet = blue, Intermediate = purple

26Grain protein and leaf N reduced due to eCO2.Yitpi only, across all site years. Deep blue = non water stressed seasons Horsham, light blue = stressed seasons Horsham, yellow = WalpeupPeas either no reduction in leaf and grain N or very small (2-5%)N in leaves lower too. Less N to be translocated or mechanism in plant that interacts with environment?

35% grain downgraded due to eCO2

$4.8M loss from downgradingKey results: Protein reduction

Ambient CO2Elevated CO2

Baking Quality

ambient

elevated

Panozzo et al., 2014

Hidden Hunger MicronutrientsIron and zinc reduction in wheat grain varies by variety

iron -5%zinc -10%

But, what about carbs?

~15% increase in nitrogen use efficiency under elevated CO2 for NUE selected varieties and may be maintained even in dry year.Adaptation: Nitrogen Use Efficiency

30One of three approaches to testing traits: Tillering capacity Water soluble carbohydrates Transpiration efficiency

Crop Nitrogen Requirements

21% more nitrogen taken up by wheat under elevated CO2 (one variety) 21% increase

eCO2 under heat waves: reduces screenings, larger kernels. Also, HS reduced WSC 25% but HS + CO2 increased WSC 4%

WalpeupHorshamHorsham

Heat shocks

Gene Expression of C and NUnder eCO2, some genes involved in senescence-related carbohydrate remobilisation were not up-regulated

Some genes involved in N remobilisation remained expressed at eCO2

Thus, grains are a greater sink for N under eCO2 but the lower N in plant tissue is insufficient to meet the potential, leading to lower grain proteinQ: Does eCO2 change C and N remobilisation patterns during senescence?

APHID

Aphid + Plant + Virus

Breeding for virus resistanceBreeding to maintain leaf NAdaptation: BYDV

Use AGFACE data to validate models: Make sure the models are accurateAdd factors difficult to study in field: e.g., many locations, temperaturesExtrapolate across landscapeLook into the futureComputer Modelling

Landscape clumpiness due to soil type by rainfall interactions Modelling present-day long-season cultivar includes eCO2, sowing times (later), temperature, soil typeOLeary et al., 2011Yield Prediction Direction (adaptation)

36Heat extremes not includedOne cultivar only across landscape

AGFACE FutureCO2 X drought X heat stressHeat tolerant line testing, mechanism discoveryFree-Air HeatingWheat, barley, canola?Economic modellingMetabolomics, geneticsAGFACE as part of MEF network?

If we do nothingLost opportunityArent we adapting crops to rising CO2 levels already?

Communicating Climate ChangeOur brains work on four distinct planes:spatial, temporal, social, and hypothetical the more distant, the more abstractly we think about itClimate change will happen:in a distant placein the far futureto someone elseits just a theoryAnd, those scientists are always doom and gloom! who do you trust?

Make it personal

Sydney MorningHerald

The Age& London Daily TelegraphRed SymonsThe WeeklyAGFACE Communication/Engagement

AGFACE for CO2 resilient crops:Trait testing: speed up breeding, validate trait selection, active selection, biofortificationMechanisms: inform pre-breeders, interactions b/t CO2, water, N, temperature/heatModelling: landscape, future, economics, climate change interactions, testing management/cultivar scenariosMaximise the positives, minimise the negativesCommunicate relevanceTake Home

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.Henry Ford

Survey Results5: Viruses may be more severe under eCO2 6: Frost or heat effects under CO2? 7: Nutrient needs under CO2? 8: Drought tolerance/yield under CO2? (ie how far can we go before water efficiency benefit is negated/lost?) 1: Crop yield and growth increases under eCO22: Grain protein decreases under eCO2 3: Bread quality decreases under eCO2 4: Crops need more fertiliser under eCO2

How important do you rate these impacts of elevated CO2?BCGGCE

Crops More Water Use EfficientIn increase of 30% in water use efficiency the largest ever measured under eCO2

30% increase

Wheat water use efficiencyambient CO2 (kg/mm/day) elevated CO2 (kg/mm/day)

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