Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe · Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe . Metal...
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Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe Metal Bulletin Conference, Munich Mai 20 th 2015 Aluminium’s revolution in the automotive industry
Transcript of Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe · Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe . Metal...
Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe Metal Bulletin Conference, Munich Mai 20th 2015
Aluminium’s revolution in the automotive industry
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“Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle… Weight may be desirable in a steam roller but nowhere else”
- Henry Ford 1924
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Alu FRP demand estimated to grow by 12m tons from 2010 to 2020
Source: Novelis industry analysis
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30
05
101520253035
2010 2015 2020
Aluminum FRP demand to grow 12 Million tons over the current decade
Average global annual growth rate at 4%
Young growth industry
+12
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Global FRP Aluminum demand M tons
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0.2 Mt 1.0 Mt 2.2 Mt
2010 2015 2020
4.3 Mt 5.3 Mt 6.2 Mt
FRP demand in Automotive is rapidly catching up with Can
Source: Novelis industry analysis
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Aluminum sheet still small in automotive … with a long run way
Source: Wood Mackenzie
80 Mt Steel, 2015
1Mt Aluminum FRP for cars, 2015
2.2 Mt Aluminum FRP, 2020
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Adaption in mass market cars leads to strong growth in the future
Source: Novelis industry analysis
0.06 0.23
1.0
2.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2010 2015 2020
Audi A8
Ford F150
S-Class
Porsche SUV
Range Rover
Jaguar XJ
BMW 5/7 series
C-Class
Audi Q7
C-segment car
E-Class
Audi A8
Global FRP Aluminum demand in Auto M tons
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Primary drivers for change to Aluminum in Automotive
Regulations Enforcement of emission reductions
Light-weighting
Efficiency
Fuel economics Customers wanting to pay less for gas
Performance Customers expecting better specs
Environmental sensitivity Desire to reduce ecological footprint
2012 2025
MPG 0
15
30
45
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Regulations are tightening in key markets
Source: ICCT, Wood Mackenzie
207
177
119
172
140
95
2010 2021 2000
USA (cars) EU
Enforced reduction of ~45% in both, USA and EU between 2000 and 2021
Same trend to be found in other countries such as Brazil, China, Japan
Exports force producers to comply with most stringent regulations
Allowed CO2 emissions for cars Grams of tailpipe CO2 emission per kilometer normalized to NEDC test cycle
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Main growth for Auto Aluminum demand in North America
Source: Novelis industry analysis
Asia Incl. RoW Europe
North America
Auto sheet demand 2015 (blue) and 2020 (grey), in kt
1′126
373
+200% +90%
+90% 850
450 255 135
Presenter
Presentation Notes
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Surging demand in the US due to regulatory pressure
Source: Novelis industry analysis; Wood Mackenzie
1′200
800
400
0
Demand and supply of Auto FRP kt, North America Demand
Capacity
2015 2020 2010
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Investments in place at or above European demand
Source: Novelis industry analysis; Wood Mackenzie
1′000
400
200
0
800
600
2015 2020 2010
Demand Capacity Demand and supply of Auto FRP
kt, Europe
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Good business can be bad for business
Source: Credit Suisse
Num
ber o
f ent
rant
s / m
argi
ns
Time
# of competitors/ capacity
Margins
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Innovation becoming increasingly important to differentiate
Forming Advanz e200 for high forming skin
applications, e.g. bodysides Advanz Fusion e200 for high forming
applications, e.g. door inners
Joining Full family of remotely
weldable alloys ‒ Advanz e200 ‒ E170 ‒ HS6xxx
Multi material joining steel/alu
Strength / crash Advanz™ s600: full crash 250 MPa 6xxx: 300-350 Mpa semi-crash Tailored properties blanks
Recycling Increasing recycled content in all
alloys (reducing footprint and cost) Circular material flows in closed
loops World-class scrap sorting technology Process and EOL recycling
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Bodyside Evolution in Aluminum at JLR
Source: JLR presentation, Eurocarbody 2012, R. Lloyd, G. Moyce, S. Black, M. Rickards
One piece Advanz™ e170 bodyside the largest single aluminum automotive body panel in the world to date
Simple concept which brings weight and costs saving
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The first innovation that I want to share with you is the …. …. One – piece body-side ……. …. which is the largest stamping in the world … …. let me show you the evolution of the body side … …. material technology that enabled this CLICK
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Advanz™ c300 - Crash Energy Alloy
Compared to previous 5754 equivalent part 20% Weight save achieved – circa
6kg per vehicle 9% Cost save per vehicle 12’000 tons CO2 reduced from annual fleet
tailpipe emissions
Source: Novelis R&T
Presenter
Presentation Notes
…. But first …… …. Let me switch gears to Crash Management for a moment …. in previous JLR vehicles, …. ….. 5754 was the sheet alloy primarily used for crash energy absorption …. in Range Rover, JLR utilized our newly developed “Advanz c300” crash alloy … … and was able to achieve outstanding crash performance and the other benefits shown CLICK
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Novelis Innovation & Technology Leader
Spokane, WA Molten Metal Research Plant Support
Goettingen, Germany Global R&T, Can & Specialties Plant Support Product Development
Ulsan, Korea Global R&T Tech. Support Plant Support Product Development
Sierre, Switzerland Global R&T, Automotive Plant Support Product Development
Kennesaw, GA Global R&T Plant Support Product Development Technology Development
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Novelis closed loop recycling (“mining-free Aluminum”)
Production closed loop
End-of-life closed loop 2 1
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Evolution of recycling content at Novelis
FY13
43
39
FY12 FY15
46
FY14
49
FY11
33
Recycled content at Novelis Percentage
Long-term target of 80% recycled content for Novelis worldwide
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Novelis Nachterstedt – Aluminium Recycling Center
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Largest aluminum recycling facility in the world – 400kT p.a.
New technology to handle wide variety of scrap types will become the technology standard for future plants
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How is Novelis Nachterstedt different?
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SORTING SHREDDING MELTING
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Talking about growth & recycling … - Special thanks to Oliver and team for - delivering the world largest rc & ch at Nachterstedt - on time and on budget As we are ramping up this monster over the next weeks, the responsibility is now moving to the operations team to run the procurement team to source the S&M team for alloy specifications … … to deliver the steep ramp-up to 300kt p.a. by end of this FY a “must” to make our annual plan this year in particular to ensure SI supplies as we have ramped down 3rd part contracts
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The World’s Largest Recycling Network casted 1.6 Mt in FY15
South America Pinda, Brazil
Europe Nachterstedt, Germany
Latchford, UK Norf, Germany
Pieve, Italy
Asia Yeongju, Korea Ulsan, Korea
North America Oswego, NY Berea, KY
Greensboro, GA
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Novelis is investing world-wide to provide adequate auto capacity
Europe North America
360 250
420
180
900
445
Novelis Global
Novelis Automotive BiW capacity 2014 / 2016 (estimate), in kt
2014 2016e
4 production lines 2 lines recently completed
(~240kt final output) 1 line in construction
operational early CY2016 (~120kt)
3 production lines 2 lines in operation
since > 10 years Nachterstedt line SOP
mid-2015 on track (120kt)
1 production line SOP 8/2014
120 15
Asia
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Novelis is serving its global customers from around the world
Logan, Kentucky Terre Haute, Indiana
Pieve/Bresso, Italy
Norf, Germany
Fairmont, W. Virginia
Göttingen, Germany Latchford, UK
Nachterstedt, Germany
Sierre, Switzerland
Pinda, Brazil
Alcom, Malaysia
Ulsan, S. Korea
Yeongju, S.Korea
Chanzhou, China
Oswego, New York
Automotive
Packaging
Consumer & Industrial Building & construction Beverage can
Sauerland, Germany
Berea, Kentucky
Greensboro, Georgia
