Regional Development Strategy (DRD)

Sustainable Development Strategy (OFMDFM)

Waste Action Plan (DoE)

Strategic Energy Framework (DETI, 2010)

- enshrines energy policy for next ten years or so. - Target of 40% of electricity consumption by 2020 to come from renewables. - ETI Committee have asked for a review (October 2013)

Presented two Scenarios – ‘vision’ not targets • (1) continuation of trends (increase SoS and decarb.), and

• (2) higher SoS, more aggressive decarb with emphasis on EE and renewables.

NI becomes a net electricity exporter. Reduction in oil for heating. Transport still ‘oil dominated’. By 2050 GHG reductions fall to 80%. Energy costs fall, fossil fuels fall, consumption

rises. Highest generation costs come from OCGTs with

options to use Smartgrid solutions and storage.

Security of supply (SoS)

Affordable Energy

• Energy Price debate

Greenhouse Gas targets

Highest energy prices in the UK (rising!).

- UREG report on high prices for industry.

Hugely dependent on imported fossil

fuels • In Northern Ireland in 2011 around 87% of electricity

was generated from imported fossil fuels according to

the UK Government. #1

High levels of Fuel Poverty

No Green New Deal

#1 Source: Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics (DUKES) 2012, Department of Energy & Climate Change

Security of Supply (SoS)

• Security of supply can be thought of as reduction of external dependence

and diversification of supply of gas and electricity.

• Countries that rely on imported fuels to generate their electricity are

exposed to price fluctuations and supply gaps due to geo-political

instability.

• This reliance on imported fuel means that NI customers are very exposed to

price fluctuations especially in gas prices. Huge reliance in Ireland on GAS.

• Ways of counteracting this lack of control are to widen the mix of ways of

generating electricity as in GB, develop local fuel storage and develop local

generation of electricity from locally available resources and increase

access to interconnectors (gas and electricity).

Source: Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics (DUKES) 2012, Department of Energy & Climate Change

http://northernirelandphotos.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/ballylumfordpower.jpg All-Island Transmission Forecast Statement 2012 – 2018, SONI and EirGrid

Electricity Production Ballylumford Gas Powered Electricity Plant

As from 2016 to comply with EU Directives the withdrawal of some generation capacity at Ballylumford is planned. The All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2013 – 2022 published by SONI and EirGrid, says “Ballylumford Gas/HFO ST4, ST5 and ST6 are to be decommissioned by 2016… and will result in a 510 MW reduction of Northern Ireland plant capacity.” This is from a total capacity of 2764 MW of generation in NI. This requires other generators to come on line from 2016.

Storage and Generation • There is roughly a month of fuel oil stored at Kilroot and Coolkeeragh

power stations, although this can only be burned for electricity in

emergency situations, such as a pipeline breach.

• A gas storage facility is proposed to be developed in Larne Lough and

if completed would hold enough gas for two months of energy

demand.

• Local fossil fuel resources are scarce although there is shale gas in

Fermanagh and potentially gas near Rathlin Island. While these are

being explored, none is a current source of electricity.

• In contrast, NI has abundant wind resources and prospects for tidal

energy. Although reasonable potential for hydroelectricity and

biomass are available little electricity is provided by these.

• Developing local electricity generation from indigenous

resources can help to reduce the amount of electricity produced

by burning fossil fuels brought into NI.

Islandmagee Storage Limited. (2012). Islandmagee Storage. Available: http://www.islandmageestorage.com/.. Last accessed 14/08/2013.

In 2011 the joint regulators’ annual report said that “Gas fired units contribute the largest share of the generating load and therefore the variations in the international fuel prices have a significant impact on the System Marginal Price (SMP). During 2011 the SMP increased compared to 2010 largely in response to increases in wholesale gas prices”. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland reviewed the impact of wind energy on wholesale electricity prices in the SEM and found that:

In general, while capital costs of wind energy plants are higher than conventional generation, wind energy can act as a hedge against high fuel costs by depressing the wholesale cost of

electricity

Electricity Market Single Electricity Market or SEM

UREGNI and CER, 2009, Impact of High Levels of Wind Penetration in 2020 on the Single Electricity Market (SEM) A Modelling Study by the Regulatory Authorities Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, 2011, Impact of Wind Generation on Wholesale Electricity Costs in 2011

Winter peak demand for electricity 1,777MW.

Summer minimum 516MW. Around 495MW of large scale wind

connected. A further 580MW has received

planning consent. Around 636MW are in the planning

system. NIE estimate around 30MW of small

scale generation connected. Last year around 15% of our

electricity was generated by renewables.

http://www.windatlas.dk/europe/landmap.html

Northern Ireland - excellent resources

Yes, definitely, but not on its own - but good progress possible by 2020.

Renewables have resulted in a downward pressure on wholesale market price and more stable base price going forward.

Reduce dependence on imported fuels.

Increasing resistance to windfarms. Need to develop in less sensitive areas of AONBs. Need to find meaningful community engagement

strategy. Grid reinforcement (inc Cavan interconnector) Increased developer RISK

SONI estimate by 2022 – 1800MW We already have around 550MW, so we

have 8 years to get a further 1250 MW connected in 96 months (63 windfarms).

13MW a month connected, 4 x 3.3MW wind turbines a month.

A turbine every 7 days for the next 8 years.

Investment of around £1.5billion

Additional 1250MW will provide £5,000/MW of community benefit = £6.25m per annum.

Over 25 years, this is £156m to local community

Local rates will provide £4,000/MW a further £5m per annum.

Over 25 years this is £125m for local services.