Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International Consultant Contact:...
Transcript of Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International Consultant Contact:...
Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International ConsultantContact: [email protected]
Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to
Copenhagen
Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations"
Source: IPCC
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Melting glaciers
Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)
… Share in the current emissionsAustralia 1.1%
Brazil 1.1%Spain 1.1%
Iran 1.5%
Indonesia 1.3%
South Africa 1.5%
Mexico 1.5%Korea 1.6%
China 17.3%
USA 20.9%
Japan 4.3%
Germany 2.8%
Canada 2.2%
UK 2%France 1.3%
Italy 1.6%
Nigeria 0.4%Poland 1.1%
Russia 5.3%
India 4.6%
Latin America and Carribean 4.8%
EU 8.8%
G8 nations about 45%
Source: CDIAC 2007
… per capita emissions
USA Canada Australia Russia Japan S. Africa Europe France World Latin Indonesia Nigeria Kenya
Germany Spain Iran China America Brazil India
UK Poland Mexico Caribbean
S. KoreaSource: CDIAC 2007
Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to
Copenhagen
Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
1990, 1992: FAR0.3 oC ↑
1995: SAR
2001: TAR1.4-5.8oC ↑
2007: AR41.1-6.4oC ↑
2014: AR5
1992: Framework Convention on CC
1994: Convention enters into force
1997: Kyoto Protocol
2001: Marrakesh Accords* Kyoto Protocol “rules”* Adaptation on table
2005: Kyoto Protocol enters into force
2007: Bali Road Map
2009: COP-15 Copenhagen
Science (IPCC) Politics (UNFCCC)
“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”
Industrialised countries & Economies in Transition (EITs)
• Adopt policies and measures with aim of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels
• EITs have “flexibility” in commitments
Annex I
Industrialised countries
• Provide financial resources to enable developing countries
• Promote technology transfer to EITs and non-Annex I Parties
Annex II
Developing countries
• No quantitative obligations
• Least Developed Countries given special consideration
Non-Annex I
Adopted at the 1997 UNFCCC Conference of Parties 3 (COP3) in Kyoto, Japan, on December 11, 1997
Defines a target for GHG emission reductions for the period between 2008 and 2012 of 5.2% compared to 1990 levels
Established international market-based mechanisms to meet the targets
184 signatory states
Bali Road Map (2007) – Breakthrough in the mindset
• Shared understanding for the necessity of common efforts, both by developed and developing countries
• Climate change is linked to economic growth and sustainable development goals and needs
• Actions fall across a variety of economic sectors
• Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into force of future regime by 2012
Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to
Copenhagen
Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
Adaptation
Mitigation
Global Action
Sustainable Development Objectives
Finance
Mitigation Adaptation
Technology
Building Blocks
Bali Action Plan launched 2007
•4 building blocks • REDD • shared vision•Mitigation actions from developing countries•Mitigation commitments from developed countries
• new Subsidiary Body (AWG-LCA)
Kyoto Protocol track launched 2005
•New emission reduction targets, ranges (450 ppm?)•Means to achieve targets (CDM, JI, ET, other?)
• new Subsidiary Body (AWG-KP)
Long-term global goal is most contentious aspect
• Level of reductions to be achieved world-wide• No agreement on the year, scale, criteria or legal nature• Seen by some as defining burden-sharing• Provides key framework for mitigation action and
financial/technical support
Shared vision: Overview Shared vision: Overview
• Provides context for the global action • Message of renewed political will• Outlines the key principles • Sets the objectives• Overall preamble to the agreement
• Actions by developing countries: What form will
they take? How will they be measured, reported,
verified?
• How to match mitigation actions by developing
countries with support from developed countries
• Level of ambition from developed countries: what
they are committing to, by when, and how
• Comparability of efforts
• Market-based mechanisms
Mitigation: MainMitigation: Main issuesissues
Mitigation action/commitments by developed countries (KP&LCA)
Developing country actions (NAMAs)
Approaches to address emissions from deforestation (REDD+)
Sectoral approaches
Enhancing the cost-effectiveness, incl. role of markets
Impacts of response measures
Structure of negotiations on mitigationStructure of negotiations on mitigation
• Measurable Actions• Reportable MRV Commitments• Verifiable Support
Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) is at the core
Level and type of action or commitment
National schedules, policies and measures Economy-wide vs. sectoral goals; Base year and gases to be covered Absolute vs. intensity reduction
Means of implementation
Accounting for land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) Use of market mechanisms and supplementarity limits
Comparability of efforts
Compliance system
MRV Penalties
Nationally appropriate
In the context of sustainable development
Supported and enabled by:
◦ Technology, financing and capacity-building
In a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner (MRV)
Resulting in reduction in the growth of emissions
• Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation
Adaptation Adaptation
• Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001
• Adaptation has to be the second leg of a Copenhagen agreement, equal in importance to mitigation
• Financial needs related to adaptation are in the order of hundred billions annually
• Recognition that designated financial mechanism will be required for adaptation action
Key issues under AdaptationKey issues under Adaptation
Key challenges
1. What actions should be taken?
National planning, improving resilience
Building up/spreading knowledge base, i.e.
vulnerability assessments, etc.
Risk assessment, management and insurance
Implementation of adaptation programmes and
projects
2. How to generate finance for adaptation
3. How to match local needs with support, access
to finance
4. Institutional frameworks for adaptation,
governance
TechnologyTechnology• Key for supporting mitigation and adaptation
• Developed countries to support technology transfer (TT) to developing countries
• Removal of barriers to promoting TT including:
• Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of technologies
• Co-operation on research and development
• Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology co-operation
• Financing• Intellectual property rights• Tariffs and non-tariffs• Capacity
Generation of new and additional, adequate, predictable & sustainable funding, including:
Innovative sources for adaptation
Mobilization of public and private sector finance
Access to finance, including:
Improved access to existing financial resources
Positive incentives to implement mitigation, adaptation, CB& TT
Mechanisms for matching needs with support
Institutional arrangements for finance and investment
FinanceFinance
Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to
Copenhagen
Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
119 Heads of State
45000 participants
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No comprehensive UN agreement formally adopted on the future framework
Copenhagen Accord negotiated by 30 Heads of State, representing 80% of GHGs of the world
Political declaration
‘Noted’ by the UNFCCC process, no formal legal standing
Countries invited to communicate their support /sign on
31 January 2010- deadline for communicating targets and mitigation actions
A set of other decisions, including on CDM reforms
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Target to keep global temperature below 2oC Deep cuts in global GHGs with peaking asap, longer in developing
countries
AI Parties commit to implement quantified economy-wide
emissions targets for 2020 Kyoto Parties to strengthen implementation of the Protocol
ER and Financing to be MRVed
Non-AI Parties will implement mitigation actions Subject to domestic MRV and reporting through national
communications every 2 years
Supported actions are subject to international MRV and
recording in the registry
Immediate establishment of a REDD-plus mechanism
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Collective commitment by developed countries on finance: to provide USD 30 bln in 2012-2012
to mobilize USD 100 bln/year by 2020 Variety of sources
balanced allocation to mitigation and adaptation
significant portion to go through Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
Copenhagen Green Climate Fund to be established
High Level Panel on finance to study sources of revenue
Technology Mechanism to accelerate TD and TT is established Guided by country-driven approach
To support action on adaptation and mitigation
Review of implementation of the Accord by 2015, also in relation to
1.5C scenario
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Emission reduction Base year On 1990 Scale
Australia - 5% up to -15 / 25% 2000 - 3.89- 24.1%Belarus - 5 -10% 1990Canada - 17% 2005 +
0.25%Croatia - 5% 1990EU-27 - 20 / 30% 1990Kazakhstan - 15% 1992 N/AJapan - 25% 1990Liechtenstein - 20 / 30% 1990New Zealand - 10 - 20 % 1990Norway - - 30 - 40% 1990Russian Fed. - 15 - 25% 1990USA - 17% 2005 - 3.67%
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Emission reduction Reference Brazil -36.1 – 38.9% N/A
China - 40 – 45% (carbon intensity) to 2005
India - 25 – 30% (emissions intensity) to 2005
Indonesia - 26 – 41% N/A
Mexico - 30% below BAU
South Africa - 34% below BAU
South Korea - 30% below BAU
Maldives Carbon neutrality by 2020
Issue Progress achieved in Copenhagen Outstanding issues
Shared vision -Political commitment-Temperature goal -Assessment of implementation in 2015
-Global goal for emission reduction-The peaking year for global emissions
Mitigation by developed countries
-Bottom up pledges by Annex I -Basis for advancing negotiations
-Joint target for Annex I countries-Legal nature of targets/ compliance-Dealing with AAU surpluses
Mitigation actions by developing countries (NAMAs)
-Most political issues on NAMA resolved-Guidance on the nature of actions-Principles for MRV of NAMA-Registry for matching NAMAs with support-Pledges for NAMA made
-Types of actions eligible for support-Procedure for matching NAMA with support -MRV guidelines-Eligibility for carbon crediting -CDM & NAMAs
REDD-plus -Establishment of REDD-plus mechanism-COP text almost ready -Principles for implementation -Actions that host countries should undertake -Commitment on finance
-Role for market finance- Sub-national measures-Governance arrangements-Amount of financing to be allocated, although USD 3.5bln pledged as initial support over the next 2 years
Action on adaptation -Principles for adaptation action-List of priority activities -Enhancement of regional cooperation -Political commitment to launch framework and provide finance
-Institutional arrangements -Loss and damage
Financing and its governance
- Amount of finance to be provided - Suggestion on institutional arrangements (Copenhagen Green Fund and High-Level panel on sources)
-Decision on institutional arrangements -Ensuring predictability/ generation of funds-Share of financing for various focus areas
Technology development and transfer
-Most issues agreed-Mechanism to be established-List of eligible activities
.
- IPRs-Governance, incl. full mandate, composition and modalities for the Technology Executive Committee and the Climate Technology Centre
2-6 Aug: AWG-KP 13 & AWG-LCA 11◦ Discussion of the new LCA text issued by the
Chair in June in Bonn
◦ In-session workshop on AI aggregate and individual emission reductions
Tbc: AGW-KP 14 & AWG-LCA 12 in China Several infornal high-level consultations 29 Nov-10 Dec: COP16 and CMP6 in Cancun
◦ Aim to adopt a set of COP&CMP decisions on various elements of the future framework
Scientific and political context for climate change
negotiations
Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to
Copenhagen
Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations
Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun
UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations
Independent body of international civil servants About 400 staff Guided by the Bureau of the COP, and gets
specific requests from COP, CMP and the SBs Every 2 years the COP adopts a budget, setting
out the main tasks and the funding needed The budget is funded by contributions from
Parties based on the UN scale of assessment
Make practical arrangements for the negotiations
Monitor implementation of the commitments through collection, analysis and review of data by Parties
Assist Parties in implementing their commitments
Substantive technical support to the negotiations
Maintain registries for the issuance of carbon credits and for the assigned amounts of emissions of Parties
Support to the compliance regime of the KP
Coordinate with other international bodies
Preparation of official documents for the
negotiations between and during sessions
Coordination of in-depth reviews of Annex I
national communications
Compilation of GHG inventory data
Logistical issues◦ Registration for the sessions
◦ Application for hosting a side event
◦ Participation in in-session and intersessional workshops
Submissions to the UNFCCC◦ View on particular issue, in response to request for views
◦ GHG inventories, national communications, NAPAs, NAMAs, etc.
◦ Ad hoc expression of views
Participation in the negotiations during the sessions◦ Getting the documents by the Chair during the informals
◦ Textual proposals during the sessions (if requested by the Chair)
◦ Oral discussions in case of strong position on particular issue
Official correspondence◦ Registration through the focal points
◦ Official submissions by country through the national focal point
To e-mail: [email protected]
During the sessions◦ Logistics to the appropriate contact as shown in the
Daily programme
◦ Substantive issues related to the negotiations: Responsible staff for the corresponding issue-see Daily Programme, section on status of negotiations