Downtown / SoBro. Market Analysis Forecast potential: All uses in SoBro & broader Downtown Area...

Market AnalysisMajor Findings Presented to Urban Land Institute Nashville

Randall Gross / Development EconomicsNashville Metropolitan Development and Housing Agency (MDHA)

Downtown / SoBro

Introduction & Purpose

Market Analysis Forecast potential: All uses in SoBro & broader Downtown Area Downtown: the economic “core of the apple” & “face of

Nashville” Strategic Planning

Translate the market findings into development, marketing, management, and financing strategies for implementation

Purpose of this Information MDHA: Programs, redevelopment policies & incentives

▪ Specific attention to Rolling Mill Hill Inform the SoBro Master Plan (CCA) Downtown development planning & ED Downtown marketing Data/information to help guide private development

STUDY AREA

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

EXISTING CONDITIONS

Location Center of 13-county MSA; market of 1.7 million 1-day’s drive of 50% US population Good air connections, but lacks strong international access

Local Transportation Access Limited, but gradually expanding public transit system Convergence of 6 interstates: “Nexus” & “Noose” East-west connectivity issues

Parking Accelerating need for parking management & access

Physical Conditions Topography & flooding Important architectural heritage but “missing teeth” Sporadic but limited “identity marketing” urban design

EXISTING INVENTORY

Industrial: 9.0 million sq. ft. Office: 7.9 million sq. ft. Housing: 5,900 units Retail: 1.5 million sq. ft. Convention: 1.2 million sq. ft. Hotels: 2,500 rooms Government & Community: 150+ Parking lots 754 Vacant lots 1,560 Audience Support:

Museums 4 (+2 planned) Performing arts venues 6 Multi-use & sports venues 5 Commercial entertainment 46 (650,000 sq. ft.) Historic/Visitor attractions 11 Parks & trails 4

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Diversified regional economic base Concentrations in health care, accommodation

services, and retail trade

6.7% employment growth since 1998 100,000 jobs added 1998-2007 60,000 jobs lost 2007-2010

Declining industries Manufacturing: -36% (-30,000 jobs) Construction -10% (-3,600 jobs)

Growing industries Health care +35% (+27,300 jobs) Accommodation +31% (+16,000 jobs) Management +49% (+8,600 jobs)

OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS

OFFICE – Existing Market

Downtown Mix▪ State Government▪ Banks & financial

institutions▪ Law firms▪ Corporate▪ Technology▪ Media


Table 3. OFFICE-RELATED EMPLOYMENT TRENDS,

CORE DOWNTOWN ZIP CODES, 1998-2010

1998-2010 Change

Industry 1998 2010 Number Percent

Information 2,919 1,555 (1,364) -46.7%

Finance & Insurance 3,165 2,086 (1,079) -34.1%

Real Estate 795 453 (342) -43.0%

Prof & Tech Svcs 5,801 4,250 (1,550) -26.7%

Management 365 440 76 20.7%

Medical Offices 1,138 1,886 748 65.8%

Government 12,982 12,133 (849) -6.5%

TOTAL 27,165 22,805 (4,360) -16.0%

Note: Based on employment in zip codes 37201,

37219 and 37243.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, State of

Tennessee, and Randall Gross / Development

Economics.


Table 5. SUMMARY OFFICE MARKET CONDITIONS, NASHVILLE MARKET,

2ND QUARTER 2012

Vacancy Rate Class A Under

Sub-Market Total Vacant Direct Total Rental Rate Constr.

Airport North 4,155,654 477,278 11.5% 13.5% $ 20.28 -

Airport South 2,645,405 548,478 20.7% 21.9% $ 20.00 -

Brentwood 4,965,344 274,640 5.5% 5.7% $ 22.35 203,000

Cool Springs 5,958,409 258,905 4.3% 6.1% $ 22.64 312,950

CBD 7,884,874 1,205,180 15.3% 18.3% $ 24.08 -

Green Hills/M Row 2,009,235 162,683 8.1% 8.6% $ 29.11 -

Metro Center 1,580,891 197,129 12.5% 12.5% $ 17.96 -

N Nashville/Rivergate 469,000 45,224 9.6% 9.6% $ 19.23 -

West End/Belle Mde 3,790,541 163,544 4.3% 7.4% $ 26.99 -

TOTAL 33,459,353 3,333,061 10.0% 11.7% $ 23.43 515,950

Sources: Cassidy Turley and Randall Gross / Development Economics.


Absorption Trends 640,000 sf / year

(96-11) 840,000 sf / year

(07-11)

Table 8. OFFICE ABSORPTION BY SUB-MARKET

AND SHARE, NASHVILLE MARKET, 2007-2011

2007-2011 Absorption (Square Feet)

Sub-Market Total Average Annual Share

Airport North 666,314 133,263 15.8%

Airport South 140,000 28,000 3.3%

Brentwood/CS 2,774,844 554,969 65.8%

CBD 374,613 74,923 8.9%

Green Hills/ M. Row 114,663 22,933 2.7%

Metro Center 18,115 3,623 0.4%

North Nashville 85,228 17,046 2.0%

West End/BM 43,610 8,722 1.0%

TOTAL 4,217,389 843,478 100.0%

Sources: Cassidy Turley and Randall Gross /

Development Economics.

OFFICE – Demand Forecasts

Table 11. OFFICE SPACE DEMAND PROJECTIONS BASED ON

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN OFFICE-FOCUSED

INDUSTRIES, DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE, 2012-2022

Square Feet

Selected Industry 2012-2017 2017-2022 TOTAL Annual

Finance/Insurance 32,100 28,300 60,400 6,040

Real Estate 7,400 2,900 10,300 1,030

Prof/Tech Services 108,600 83,600 192,200 19,220

Management Svcs 71,100 36,700 107,800 10,780

Health Care 37,400 26,200 63,600 6,360

TOTAL 256,600 177,700 434,300 43,430

Note Excludes Government and Owner-Occupied Space

Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.

Office Employment Projections (MSA): 2012-2021 Growth: 27,100

(19.5%) Prof/Technical

Services▪ +12,700 jobs (33.2%)

Management Services▪ +5,900 jobs (22.1%)

OFFICE – Demand Forecasts

Competitive Framework Cool Springs-Brentwood

▪ Franklin Park Airport

▪ Buchanan Point Midtown

▪ West End Summit▪ 1515 Demonbreun▪ One City / Charlotte Medical

Corridor

Table 12. ANNUAL OFFICE ABSORPTION FORECASTS,

NASHVILLE MARKET AND SUB-MARKETS,

2012-2022

Square Feet

Area 2012-2017 2017-2022 TOTAL Annual

Nashville Area Market 4,351,500 3,405,500 7,757,000 775,700

Sub-Markets

CBD 300,400 272,400 572,800 57,280

Airport North 427,200 374,600 801,800 80,180

Airport South 28,900 27,200 56,100 5,610

Brentwood/Cool Springs 2,874,800 2,043,300 4,918,100 491,810

Green Hills/ M Row 36,500 30,600 67,100 6,710

Metro Center 57,100 44,300 101,400 10,140

North Nashville 187,200 146,400 333,600 33,360

West End/BM 732,000 582,300 1,314,300 131,430


OFFICE – Market Potential Potential: 564,000 – 745,000 sq. ft. by

2022 Equal to 1 “Batman” Bldg or 2 SunTrust

Plazas Escalating trend of Re-urbanization Demand Drivers:

Professional, scientific & IT/technical services Management services Media & entertainment Others: Health care, FIRE

Growing Base: Small IT, entertainment & service firms

OFFICE – Downtown Districts

Gulch▪ Interstate access▪ Proximity to health centers

Downtown▪ State Government draw-down▪ Pro-active recruitment

So Bro▪ Information & Media Services

38,400 – 50,800 square feet▪ Professional & Technical Services

34,200 – 70,600▪ Management Services

26,100 – 28,600▪ Medical Offices

23,700 – 25,800▪ Finance & Insurance

20,300 – 20,600▪ Real Estate

6,100 - 27,700

Table 13. NEW OFFICE TENANT MIX BY

INDUSTRY AND LOCATION,

DOWNTOWN AREA, 2012-2022

Tenant Gulch Core SoBro

Information/Media 20% 15% 24%

Finance & Insurance 16% 20% 9%

Real Estate 4% 4% 4%

Prof & Tech Svcs 24% 40% 40%

Management 17% 4% 10%

Medical Offices 19% 18% 13%

Source: Randall Gross / Development

Economics.

OFFICE - Caveats & Prerequisites

Create space to accommodate smaller, emerging “footloose” firms

Create supportive environment for office tenants

Provide sufficient parking & transit Ameliorate State Government drawn down

(20%) Reduce space /change use in functionally-

obsolescent buildings Pro-active marketing & recruitment can

result in “drop ins”

HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS

HOUSING – Existing Market Diverse central city

neighborhoods Rutledge Hill The Gulch Rolling Mill Hill SoBro Germantown Salemtown Hope Gardens Capitol Hill (Sulphur

Dell, N Capitol, Market District)

Downtown

HOUSING – Existing Market

Downtown Market Drivers Young, Single Prof. &

“DINKS” Downtown Workers Students & Parents Investors Empty Nesters “Transitionals”

HOUSING – Existing Market

Table 1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, NASHVILLE &

METRO AREA (MSA), 2000-2012

2000-2012 Change

Factor 2000 2012 Number Percent

Population

Nashville MSA 1,311,789 1,630,017 318,228 24.3%

Davidson County 569,891 633,468 63,577 11.2%

Households

Nashville MSA 510,222 629,353 119,131 23.3%

Davidson County 237,405 261,935 24,530 10.3%

Ave HH Income

Nashville MSA $ 72,041 $ 82,326 $ 10,284 14.3%

Davidson County $ 68,954 $ 68,406 $ (548) -0.8%

Note: Average Household Incomes in constant

2010 dollars.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Randall Gross /


Table 5. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, DOWNTOWN

NASHVILLE AREA, 2000-2010

2000-2010 Change

Factor 2000 2010 Number Percent

Population 9,753 13,078 3,325 34.1%

Med Age 28.7 30.5 1.8 6.2%

African-Amer. 64.1% 49.9% (0.142) -22.1%

Latino 2.4% 2.9% 0.005 21.8%

Households 3,860 5,915 2,055 53.2%

Families 42.4% 32.0% (0.104) -24.6%

Singles 49.1% 68.0% 0.189 38.5%

Children <19 2,927 2,655 (272) -9.3%

Income (Ave) $ 21,640 $ 29,538 $ 7,899 36.5%

Median $ 35,597 $37,917 $ 2,320 6.5%

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Randall Gross /


HOUSING – Existing Market CBD Rental Market

High occupancy▪ 92% (2009) – 98%

(2012)▪ CBD highest in region

Rents▪ $1.95 psf average

Absorption▪ 140 – 160 units /

month▪ 30 units / mo / project

CBD For-Sale Market (2011-12) Ave SF: 1,260 Ave Sale Price:

$196,070 Ave Sale/SF: $156 # Sales: 630/year # Condos on

market: <10

HOUSING – CBD Employee Survey

Demographics 94% have attended college 1/3 have advanced degrees Diverse incomes 40% work in Government, 12% in non-

profits 16% work in law firms 77% are home owners; Only 21% are

renters


8% already live downtown

Another 30% would consider living downtown

Highest propensity: Antioch Hermitage West Meade Old Hickory Bellevue Crieve Hall/Glencliff S Nashville/Woodbine

Reason to live downtown: Closer to work:

43% Closer to city life:

34% N/A or Already in CBD:

17% Other reasons:

5% Closer to friends/people:

< 1%


Preferences Historic or

consistent with neighborhood character

Home ownership Single-family: 54%

▪ Detached: 31%▪ Attached: 23%

Affordable▪ $2,200 / month

average▪ 1/3 < $1,000 / month

HOUSING - Demand

Table 23. NET NEW DOWNTOWN

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS,

2012-2022

Use Net New Share

Office 1,870 44.3%

Retail/Entertain 570 13.5%

Hotel 1,800 42.7%

Industrial (20) -0.5%

TOTAL 4,220 100.0%

Source: Randall Gross /


Table 21. SINGLES AND NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLD FORECASTS,

DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE, TARGET MARKETS AND

NASHVILLE MSA, 2000-2012

2012-2017 Change

Area 2012 2017 Number Percent

Nashville MSA 196,418 206,550 10,132 5.2%

Target Markets 51,951 53,993 2,042 3.9%

Antioch 12,434 13,611 1,177 9.5%

Hermitage 5,911 6,217 306 5.2%

Old Hickory 2,528 2,606 78 3.1%

West Meade 4,710 4,766 56 1.2%

East Nashville 4,336 4,295 (41) -0.9%

South Nashville 2,796 2,724 (72) -2.6%

Glencliff 12,896 13,221 325 2.5%

Bellevue 6,340 6,553 213 3.4%

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Claritas, Inc., and

Randall Gross / Development Economics.

HOUSING - Demand

Competitive Framework

HOUSING – Market Potential Potential: 3,530 housing units in Loop by

2017 2,200 move-ups / move-downs 1,330 growth-generated (600 relocations)

Product: Detached Single-Family Homes 650

DU Attached Single-Family/Brownstones 505 Lofts/Units in Mixed-Use Buildings 500 Condominiums 400 Multi-family Apartments 1,480

HOUSING- Districts

Northside Neighborhoods (Germantown, Capitol Hill, Buena Vista, Salemtown) Single-family attached & detached Mid-rise lofts, mixed-use

SoBro/Rolling Mill Hill High-rise apartments and condominiums Loft/Mixed-use, Mixed-income buildings Single-family attached (e.g., brownstones)

Gulch/Downtown High-rise apartments and condominiums Conversions of office space Mixed-use

RETAIL & ENTERTAINMENT MARKET ANALYSIS

RETAIL – Existing MarketTable 1. RETAIL INVENTORY BY PRIMARY CATEGORY,

DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA, 2012

Number of

Square

Category Businesses Percent Footage Percent

Convenience Goods 54 14.6% 176,252 8.1%

Shoppers Goods 98 26.6% 596,936 27.3%

Eating/Drinking 118 32.0% 506,498 23.2%

Entertainment 46 12.5% 647,059 29.6%

Personal Services 25 6.8% 58,563 2.7%

Vacant 28 7.6% 197,283 9.0%

TOTAL 369 100.0% 2,182,591 100.0%

Sources: Metro Nashville Government and Randall Gross/


RETAIL – Existing MarketTable 2. COMMERCIAL SPACE BY RETAIL CATEGORY,

VARIOUS DOWNTOWN SUB-MARKETS, 2012

Category Core SoBro Gulch North TOTAL

Convenience Goods 71,310 40,192 22,900 101,387 235,790

Shoppers Goods 347,084 171,557 29,800 42,599 591,040

Eating/Drinking 305,613 55,528 90,204 55,153 506,498

Entertainment 544,122 70,408 2,907 - 617,437

Personal Services 7,392 39,828 5,000 6,343 58,563

Vacant 141,715 23,071 25,000 7,498 197,283

TOTAL 1,417,236 400,585 175,811 212,979 2,206,611

Sources: Metro Nashville Government and Randall Gross /


RETAIL – Existing Market

CBD Area Rents Downtown Core $17.19 per square foot SoBro $14.29 Germantown $15.42 East $12.50 Gulch $26.00

Sales (per business interviews) Average $207psf Growth +1.7%/annum Increasing 63% Declining 17%

RETAIL – Existing Market

Key Issues Parking accessibility & pricing Dominance of dining & entertainment Dependency on events & tourism

▪ CMA Fest is “Christmas”▪ Heavy dependence on Bridgestone Arena

Limited (but growing) regional market appeal ▪ Lack of shopping “district”▪ Parking / traffic▪ Lack of anchors

RETAIL - Demand

Trade Area: $4.2 Billion forecasted

growth in income by 2017

$2.5 Billion growth in expenditure potentials

Visitors: $117.5 million growth

Downtown Workers: $53.7 million growth

Students: $1.0 million growth

Table 5 TPI FORECASTS, DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE

TRADE AREAS, 2012-2017

TPI (000) 2012-2017 Change

Trade Area 2012 2017 Amount Percent

CBD $ 63,303 $ 72,017 $ 8,714 13.8%

Urban $ 2,541,306 $ 2,614,101 $ 72,795 2.9%

Other David $13,110,571 $14,039,340 $ 928,769 7.1%

Other MSA $24,553,339 $27,749,678 $3,196,339 13.0%

Total $40,268,519 $44,475,135 $4,206,616 10.4%

Notes: Total personal income (TPI) expressed in

thousands of constant 2011 dollars.


RETAIL - Potentials

Table 6. SUMMARY WARRANTED RETAIL DEMAND BY USE

DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE STUDY AREA, 2012 AND 2017

Gross Demand (SF) Existing Warranted

Type of Good 2012 2017 Uses Demand

Convenience 252,999 310,865 235,790 75,075

Shoppers Goods 701,497 876,924 596,936 279,988

Eating/Drinking 418,022 548,209 506,498 41,711

Entertainment 619,911 779,521 647,059 132,462

Personal Services 50,361 61,067 58,563 2,503

TOTAL 2,042,790 2,576,585 2,044,845 531,740

Existing Vacant

197,283

Net New Space

334,456


RETAIL

Shopping SoBro Grocery 18,000 4.4%

Convenience Stores 6,000 1.5%

Fish/Meat (Farmer's Market) 3,000 0.7%

International Foodstore 2,500 0.6%

Pharmacy/Cosmetics 5,000 1.2%

Whiskey/Specialty Liquor Store 4,500 1.1%

Apparel & Accessory Stores (non-tourist) 20,000 4.9%

Jewelry Store 3,000 0.7%

Specialty Furniture & HF/Art & Antiques 16,000 3.9%

Electronics, Camera & Appliances 18,000 4.4%

Kitchenware/Hardware-Specialty 9,000 2.2%

Department Store(s) 70,000 17.0%

Music/Book Specialty Store 2,200 0.5%

Gift Stores 10,000 2.4%

Toy and Game Stores 20,000 4.9%

Luggage/Leather Store 5,000 1.2%

Sewing Store 3,300 0.8%

Sporting Goods Stores-Outdoor/Specialty 18,000 4.4%

Musical Instruments/Hobby-Destination 4,000 1.0%

Personal Services/Salons 3,000 0.7%

RETAIL

Key anchor uses Cinemas Musical theatre entertainment Local Brands

▪ Jack Daniels, Goo Goo Clusters “Artisan” industrial * Toy, hobby & game store Department / GM store (“General store” concept) Sporting goods store Apparel & accessory stores

So Bro Mixed-use, anchored shopping district (3-5 blocks) Lafayette Street

HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS

HOTELS – Existing Market

Table 1. NASHVILLE-AREA HOTEL SUB-MARKET PERFORMANCE

FACTORS, 2012

Sub-Market Hotels Rooms Occupancy ADR RevPAR

Downtown 40 7,087 83.3% $ 135.37 $ 112.81

Airport 67 11,156 76.4% $ 106.29 $ 81.20

I-65 North 52 4,094 60.4% $ 62.98 $ 38.04

I-24 Murfreesboro 59 5,136 71.2% $ 66.89 $ 47.63

Brentwood/Franklin 37 4,252 78.9% $ 93.30 $ 73.58

Other 62 4,079 58.3% $ 62.39 $ 62.39

TOTAL 317 35,804 73.4% $ 97.64 $ 71.69

Sources: Smith Travel Research, Inc. and Randall Gross / Development

Economics.

HOTELS - Demand

Leisure Travel Sightseeing is 45% of all

visits to Nashville 1,130,000 estimated

out-of-town visitors to CBD attractions (2011)

84% of overnight visitors stay in hotels

Business Travel Estimated 390,000

convention attendance in 2012, increasing to 516,000 by 2016 (MCC).

Table 3. DOWNTOWN HOTEL MARKET BASE FORECASTS,

2012-2021

2012-2016 Change

Factor 2012 2016 2021 Number Percent

Attendance Base 3,995,200 Overnight Visits 1/ 1,130,500 1,309,600 1,528,200 179,100 15.8%

Bus/Meeting 483,000 665,400 705,000 182,400 37.8%

Total Room-Nights 1,613,500 1,975,000 2,233,200 361,500 22.4%

Note: 1/ Room-nights generated by overnight leisure visits,

accounting for multiple venue attendance.

Sources: Venue operators, Nashville Convention & Visitors Bureau,

Nashville Convention Center and Randall Gross /


HOTELS – Planned Development

CBD Area – 4,000+ rooms Omni Nashville – 800 rooms Hyatt Place-255 Gulch – <450

▪ Eakin Partners (270+/-)▪ Vision Hospitality (150+/-)

Hilton Harden Inn-200 Giarrantana-315 / Marriott Trail West (Westin)-475 Others:

▪ White Lodging (4*)▪ Pinnacle Hotels

▪ 5th Ave/KVB▪ 415 4th Avenue

▪ Matthews/Northpoint (5th/KVB)▪ Platinum Hosp (406 6th ) ▪ Arizona investors 432 6th

Competition Homewood Suites-

192 Residence

Inn/Spring Hill Suites

Intercontinental

HOTELS – Comparables

4,100 rooms near MCC with 1,740 existing & 2,400 planned “known” hotel rooms

Yields ratio of 0.011 rooms/SF convention space.

Roughly equal to comparables average of 0.012 rooms/SF

Table 4. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF

CONVENTION-AREA HOTEL ROOMS

Exhibition

Room/SF

City Space Rooms Ratio

Nashville 375,000 4,000 0.0107

Houston 862,000 4,900 0.0057

Charlotte 280,000 3,917 0.0140

Minneapolis 480,000 5,362 0.0112

New Orleans 1,100,000 18,603 0.0169

Raleigh 150,000 688 0.0046

Total/Average 3,247,000 37,470 0.0115

Note: Nashville includes planned hotels.

Sources: Comparable convention centers,

HotelGuides.com, and Randall Gross/


HOTELS - Potentials

Demand for +361,500 room-nights by 2017

Potential for +2,590 rooms in SoBro area

2,460 “known” rooms planned in SoBro area

Classification Mismatch: Only 2 planned hotels are full-

service properties with 300+ rooms, as needed by convention planners

INDUSTRIAL OPPORTUNITIES

INDUSTRIAL – Existing Conditions

Industrial is largest land use in CBD study area

ICBD is 2nd largest regional industrial sub-market

ICBD vacancy is only 5.9%, lowest of all sub-markets

Industrial absorption rebounded in 2011

CBD is competitive for machine shops, repair services, wholesale supply, recycling, transportation services, showroom space, & specialty niche manufacturing spaces

Despite decline in manufacturing overall, growth in niche industries, i.e., food & beverage

Table 1. FOOD MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT,

TRENDS, NASHVILLE MSA, 2007-2010

2007-2010 Change

Food Sector 2007 2010 Number Percent

Animal Food 294 217 (77) -26.2%

Sugar/Confection 223 750 527 236.1%

Fruit/Veg 750 79 (671) -89.5%

Dairy 1,068 794 (274) -25.7%

Meat 2,067 2,342 275 13.3%

Bakery/Tortilla 1,808 2,494 686 37.9%

Other 313 286 (27) -8.6%

Beverage 448 321 (127) -28.3%

TOTAL 6,971 7,283 312 4.5%

Sources: US Bureau of the Census and Randall Gross /


INDUSTRIAL - Opportunities SoBro “Artisanal” Manufacturing Uses

Whiskey distilleries Micro-breweries Specialty bakeries Confectionary manufacturers (chocolate and non-chocolate) Artisanal / regional food manufacturers Craft furniture and furnishings designers, producers & wholesalers Small specialty lighting and electrical equipment manufacturers Craft paper, bookbinding and specialty printing companies Visual artists and sculptors Craft toy and game producers Clothing, footwear, jewelry and accessory designers and producers Specialty regional meat producers/butchers (e.g., smoked hams) Record & DVD pressing companies Film production companies

AUDIENCE SUPPORT VENUEOPPORTUNTIES

AUDIENCE SUPPORT – Existing Conditions

Table 4. AVERAGE ATTENDANCE FOR SELECTED DOWNTOWN

AUDIENCE VENUES AND ATTRACTIONS, NASHVILLE

Attendance Share of Annual

Venue 2011 Average Total Growth

Country Music Hall of Fame 507,510 446,007 10.5% 10.3%

Tennessee State Museum 110,435 86,969 2.0% 26.5%

Frist Center 248,479 234,144 5.5% 24.6%

Ryman (Tours) 165,495 134,725 3.2% 17.8%

Ryman (Performance) 191,734 154,523 3.6% 27.6%

General Jackson 126,698 126,041 3.0% -10.0%

Music City Queen 8,130 9,713 0.2% -21.9%

Adventure Science Center 314,088 312,396 7.4% -4.1%

Bridgestone Arena 1,414,205 1,169,930 27.6% 20.4%

Municipal Auditorium N/A 270,000 6.4% 7.3%

TPAC 386,919 N/A 9.1% N/A

LP Field 553,000 553,144 13.0% N/A

Schermerhorn Hall N/A 142,290 3.4% N/A

Library-Wishing Well Theatre N/A 69,000 1.6% N/A

Children's Theatre 81,772 N/A 1.9% N/A

CMA Music Festival (2012) 71,000 67,000 1.6% 9.2%

TOTAL 4,660,755 4,244,571 100.0% 17.0%

Note: N/A means not applicable or available.

Sources: Venue representatives, annual reports, web sites

and Randall Gross / Development Economics

AUDIENCE SUPPORT-Opportunities

Key anchors Family Entertainment Venues Thematic Musical Theatre Specialty Museums Baseball stadium

Cinemas (commercial or community) Commercial stage & musical production theatres Specialty museums (e.g., international or ethnic culture) Baseball, soccer, basketball venues Family entertainment venues (i.e., Dave & Busters), bowling center,

etc Amphitheatre (although situated on east bank) Architectural tours, public historic houses (e.g., Polk Place), etc. Live music venues (beyond country honky-tonks and symphony) Programmed public art Ethnic cultural venues (such as performing arts venues or galleries) Centralized public space/park International language services & tours

CONCEPTS & STRATEGIES

CONCEPT – SoBro Districts Create distinct districts for “identity marketing” &

neighborhoods that appeal to potential residents

Rolling Mill Hill:▪ Industrial theme▪ Mixed-housing, art lofts/studios, retail node

Lafayette District: ▪ 4th / 5th Avenue & Lafayette Shopping Districts▪ 8th Avenue “funky” antiques & home furnishings▪ 4th Avenue Brownstone Row Neighborhood

Rutledge Hill Neighborhood:▪ Historic District - Fill gaps

5th Avenue “Show District”▪ Dining & entertainment – musical/theatre▪ Link to Ave of Arts, CMHOF, Opry, MCC, District, and Schermerhorn▪ Arts/Cultural anchor at 5th & Lafayette

CONCEPT – Lafayette District

SoBro Mixed-Use Neighborhood & Shopping District Brownstones Lofts / Mixed-use 2-5 blocks retail Anchor stores Local Brands “Nashville Artisan”

industrial activities

Newbury Street, Boston

Forest Avenue, Staten Island

Palo Alto, CA

CONCEPT – Project: Musical Theatre Productions

International reputation draw as “Music City” Strong talent base in writing, composing,

arranging, and performing music Strong technical base in production Growing talent base as well in dance and

choreography, acting, fashion design, crafts Strong corporate base in music management,

marketing, and production Synergies with growing theatre and film

production community, including interest in promoting Nashville as a home base for musical theatre productions

Synergies with Downtown live music scene, Ryman , Bridgestone, other performance venues

Growing, built-in convention and tourism audience

Growing dining scene, hotels, and support services

Local support for performance venues Lower cost of production compared w/major

cities Inherent interest among country music fans in

family-oriented entertainment

CONCEPT – Project:Art, Design & Technology Center

Workforce Training & Entrepreneurship Campus: Artisanal Business & Green Technology Center Change Interface of MCC and

Homeless shelters Create attractive campus

environment while enhancing opportunities for redevelopment and revitalization in the Lafayette Corridor.

Incorporate job and entrepreneurship training (culinary arts, recycling businesses) with existing housing, counseling, and medical facilities

Build partnerships between business, government & providers

Holistic approach to homelessness; De-emphasize “warehousing” of homeless

Nashville as “cutting edge” example

CONCEPT – Capitol District Mixed-use Capitol Hill

neighborhood along Bicentennial Mall Anchored by proposed

State Library / Archives, music museum

Activate Park / Farmer’s Market as destination with restaurants, market retail uses

Mixed-use & structured parking (State/Metro/Private)

CONCEPT – Project: “Decking” of Interstate

Decking of Interstate Linking CBD/ West

End markets Provides

underground parking opportunity

Strengthens core Creates “walk-able”

link between Midtown and CBD

“The Cap” in Columbus (I-670)

CONCEPTS – Civic Uses:Nashville: World’s Great Cities

Downtown/Midtown Parking Authority Cultural Nodes & Specialty Museums

Nashville as “cultural capital” Performance /Retail venue at TSU Demonbreun (or Lafayette) Park

“Central Park” for SoBro Thermal Site (SoBro Plan Concept)

Improved pedestrian & transportation linkages SoBro-Gulch (SoBro Plan Concepts) CBD – Midtown (decking) Transit stops at appropriate locations

Role of “Pro-Active” Placemakingin Capturing Market Potential

Build on historic context The small pieces are important The best cities feel “organic”

Ensure mixed-use & “walk-ability” Reduce need / cost of parking & transportation Appeal to growing number of market niches

Appeal to diverse markets Nashville’s growth is driven by diverse markets No “one size fits all” for businesses or

residents Diversity of districts, nodes, corridors,

neighborhoods, products, and pricing

Role of “Pro-Active” Placemaking(Continued)

Recognize Importance of Pro-active Leveraging

In order for Nashville to capture its market potential, there is a need for more “pro-active” efforts Master planning (versus a focus on “sites”)

Zoning is a “reactive” tool. A need for pro-active measures beyond zoning.

Pro-active policies, negotiation & engagement with the private sector

Pro-active Urban Design and Infrastructure investments to enhance identity

Partnerships to enable financing (e.g., parking) Design and infrastructure elements as “linkages” between

individual sites Branding & identity marketing

DISCUSSION

Downtown / SoBro. Market Analysis Forecast potential: All uses in SoBro & broader Downtown Area...

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