AFS/MEDSLIK-II oil spill forecasting and hazard mapping services

Svitlana Liubartseva (CMCC) Michela De Dominicis (INGV) Paolo Oddo (CMCC) Nadia Pinardi (SINCEM UNIBO) Giovanni Coppini (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Sergio Creti (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Rita Lecci (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Angela Cocozza (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Esam Awad (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Silvia Falchetti (SINCEM UNIBO) Luca Giacomelli (SINCEM UNIBO) Francesco Trotta (SINCEM UNIBO)

Second Steering Committee meeting Rijeka, 2 and 3 October 2013

Outline

• Introduction • Oil spill model MEDSLIK-II as a freely available community model • Using MEDSLIK-II for the oil spill forecast

/by example of Costa Concordia case/

• Collaboration with MONGOOS and REMPEC

• MEDESS4MS and TESSA

• Our first operational use of MEDSLIK-II (2006) /by example of Lebanon crisis/

• Oil spill hazard simulations /by example of IONIO Project/

#1

MEDSLIK-II general description The oil spill model code MEDSLIK-II, based on its precursor oil spill model MEDSLIK

is a freely available community model

#2

MEDSLIK-II uses a Lagrangian representation of the oil slick

MEDSLIK-II predicts the transport and oil transformation processes due to complex physical and chemical processes occurring in the sea-water interface

MEDSLIK-II includes a proper representation of high frequency currents, the wave induced currents and wind fields in the advective components of the Lagrangian trajectory model

MEDSLIK-II structure

#3

MEDSLIK-II as a full physics model

Advection-diffusion part is solved using a Lagrangian approach taking into account Eulerian currents Wave induced currents Wind correction Turbulence

Trasformation processes are solved considering the entire oil slick volume, subdivided in a thick and thick part. The oil fuxes due to evaporation, dispersion and spreading processes:

The model solves the advection-diffusion-transformation equation:

ADVECTION - DIFFUSION

TRANSFORMATIONS

)S(

TN

)D(

TN

)E(

TNTN

)S(

TK

)D(

TK

)E(

TKTK

dt

dV

dt

dV

dt

dV

dt

dV

dt

dV

dt

dV

dt

dV

dt

dV

#4

Operational Oil spill Forecast for ITCG /Costa Concordia Case/

In the framework of the two hydrodynamical models: MyOcean (upper panel) and Relocatable (bottom panel)

#5

INPUT data: ocean models

#6

1) MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting system) (INGV) •Risoluzione Orizzontale: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km 2) AFS (Adriatic Forecasting system) (INGV-CMCC) •Risoluzione Orizzontale : 1/45°x1/45° ~ 2.2Km 3) SCRM (Sicilian Channel Regional Model) (CNR-IAMC) •Risoluzione orizzontale: 1/32°x1/32°, ~3.5 Km 4) WMED (Western Mediterranean Regional Model) (CNR-IAMC) •Risoluzione orizzontale: 1/32°x1/32°, ~3.5 Km

5) Modello rilocabile IRENOM (INGV-CMCC-UNIBO): rapido sviluppo di modelli ad alta risoluzione (fino ad 1km) 6) Modelli Costieri (CMCC/CNR-IAMC): modelli agli elementi finiti ad altissima risoluzione (fino ad alcuni m) nelle zone d’interess

#7

Oil spill forecasting system set up and operational at the Italian Coast Guard headquarter

Download of meteo-oceanographic data The system everyday downloads the ocean and meteo data from the

Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS), Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) and the wind data from ECMWF

MEDSLIK-II

User Interface for inserting input data and for visualization of

output results

Coast Guard User Interface

#8

MONGOOS and REMPEC

• Cooperation between the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network-MOON now MONGOOS and REMPEC in the field of oil spill combating

• MONGOOS partners and REMPEC signed the MOON-REMPEC agreement for cooperation and MOON established the Emergency Response Office-ERO to Support REMPEC in the management of oil spill emergency in the Mediterranean Sea

• In the past years, ERO experts provided REMEPEC and national authorities with support in several occasions

#9

MEDESS-4MS integrated service

Institutional/Operational users

Meteorological Analyses and Forecast (ECMWF

and MOON)

Oceanographic Analyses and Forecasts

(GMES MCS and MOON) Oil Spill Satellite

Monitoring System (SAR) and AIS

OIL SPILL Models for

FORECASTING

WEB SERVICE

#10

Development of DSS for Oil Spill

Oil Fate

Namelists

Sea Conditions’ Data

Archive

Oil Source s’ Specification

Initial Data Pre-Processing

Jpg Images Oil Trajectory

Operational /Delayed mode

ASCII files

MEDSLIK-II Run

Scenario specification

Data Archive (DA)

Data Transformation Service (DTS)

Complex Data Analysis Module (CDAM)

#11

Oil spill hindcast

#12

Pollution Hazard Mapping (PHM) as a new AFS/MEDSLIK-II service

“Hazard refers to the likelihood frequency (expressed as a probability) of any particular area to be affected by a destructive event within a given period of time”

(UNESCO, 1972)

The PHM subject is Operational Hazard from the Ship Traffic

Operational Oil Pollution: • Ballast Waters • Tank Washings • Engine Room Effluent Discharges

(Pavlakis et al., 2001)

The area of interest is the Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian Sea (SANI)

#13

#14

200903.txt #1 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp #2 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp . . . #26 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp

200904.txt #1 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp #2 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp . . . #26 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp

200905.txt #1 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp #2 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp . . . #26 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp

Spill list # Time/Location/Volume/ID

1 000 000 spills/month

Monthly Ship Traffic Maps provided by ITCG

PHM pre-processing

Hourly Surface Oil Concentration CHOUR(x,y) Maps

PHM algorithm

THRHOUR(x,y) 1 CHOUR(x,y) CTHR

0 CHOUR(x,y) CTHR

“Hazard refers to the likelihood frequency (expressed as a probability) of any particular area to be affected by a destructive event within a given period of time”

(UNESCO, 1972)

Threshold Function:

H(x,y)

THRHOUR(x,y)HOUR1

N

N

Hazard:

#15

PHM simulations on ATHENA cluster at CMCC in Lecce

#16

PHM products and co-products

Pavlakis et al., 2001

Monthly Sea Surface Hazard Monthly Coastline Hazard

Monthly Averaged Surface Oil Concentration Monthly Averaged Coastline Oil Concentration

#17

PHM statistics

5 187 slicks are computed by MEDSLIK-II 720 hourly maps are aggregated

8 hours of non-stop cluster stimulation on 60 hosts

#18

PHM statistics for IONIO over 2009-2013

51 monthly PHMs for the sea surface 51 monthly PHMs for the coastline 51 monthly averaged oil concentration at the sea surface 51 monthly averaged oil concentration at the coastline

More than 5 000 oil spills per month,

which yields overall 278 906 MEDSLIK-II simulations

#19

Generalization of the problem

Specify the source of the oil spill hazard: - Ship/tanker traffic, - Platform and rigs, - Pipelines, etc - Any random set of potential sources

Run MEDSLIK-II stochastic scenarios on high-precision AFS and ECWMF archives

Obtain PHM for sea surface and shoreline

Use the information for planning the coastal facilities and improvement of the counter-measures in case of accidents

#20

Thanks

MEDSLIK-II users’ and developers’ meeting (22 October, 2012)