Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

13
Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New Zealand? Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

description

Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New Zealand? Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference. Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington. Transport’s contribution to AGW. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Page 1: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New

Zealand?

Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference

Doug CloverPhD Candidate

Environmental StudiesVictoria University of Wellington

Page 2: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Transport’s contribution to AGW

Source: Kahn Ribeiro, S., S. Kobayashi, et al. (2007)

Source: Ministry of Economic Development, 2007

Source: Ministry for the Environment, 2006

Page 3: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

The future of oil?

Source: theoildrum.com

Page 4: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

EVs - Road

Page 5: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

EVs – Road 2

Page 6: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

EVs – Mass transit

Page 7: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Comparative vehicle efficiency

Source: Simpson, 2005

Page 8: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Well to Wheel efficiency and GHG emissions

Source: Simpson, 2005

Page 9: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Comparative energy density of petrol and Li ion battery

Comparison based on the Tesla Roadster

Page 10: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Study questions

• What impact will the increased use of EVs for land transport in New Zealand have on GHG emissions?

• What impact would EVs have on fossil fuel usage?• What impact would the increased use of EVs have

on electricity demand and the functioning of the electricity system? – what effect (if any) would this increased use have on the

attainment of the Government’s 90% renewable 2025 target?

Page 11: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Evaluating technological transitions

• How do new technologies arise and what impacts will they have on society?

Three generic approaches• Point source – new technology arises from an

innovative event then develops through stages• Transformational – technology innovations have an

impact on society and vice versa.• Replacement –new technologies compete with old

based on price and performanceGeels (2004)

Page 12: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Proposed Model

Page 13: Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Technology and sustainability• Environmental sustainability criteria (OECD 2001)

– Use renewable resources efficiently and not exceed long term rate of natural regeneration

– Use non-renewable resources efficiently and limit their use so they can be substituted by renewable resources

– Limit discharges to be within the assimilative capacity of ecosystems– Avoid actions that have an irreversible effect on the environment

• Will EVs result in an incremental technological change or a technology transition?

“a transition denotes a long-term change in an encompassing system that serves a basic societal function (e.g. food production and consumption, mobility, energy supply and use, communication, etc.).” Elzen (2005)