DOR Futurecast

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Transcript of DOR Futurecast

  • 1. A Brief History of a Potential Future Presentation for DOR Future Cast Team Dr. Tony ODriscoll Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
  • 2. Introduction and Expectations Possible Futures Steep Factors Enterprise Response
  • 3. Expectations: Spheres of Knowledge Insights
    • Future
    • Distruption
    • STEEP Factors
    • Business Response
    Weve been working on this for a while now and we are more confused than ever. BUT we are confused at a higher level about more important things!
  • 4. Tonys Brief Bio
    • 18 Years of industry experience in Telecom and High-Tech Industries: HW, SW, Services, Research, Learning
    • Founding member of IBMs Strategy and Change Consulting Practice
    • Professor of the Practice at Dukes Fuqua School of Business
    • Teach in the areas of Strategic Management, Management of Innovation and Technology, Management Consulting and Services Management.
    • Research focuses on impact of technology on business strategy and operational efficiency
    • Consult with clients around the world on how to leverage technology to drive sustainable competitive advantage.
  • 5. Introduction and Expectations Possible Futures Steep Factors Enterprise Response
  • 6. The Educators Dilemma My Vision My Reality
  • 7. Meet another Fellow Educator: My Grandfather Michael ODriscoll
  • 8. Examining Change in my Grandfathers Lifetime Transatlantic radio Electricity Radio networks Telephone system Automobiles Air travel Washing machines Television Global monetary system Interstate highway system High Rise buildings Electronic computers Space travel Satellite communications The Internet Global positioning system Cable television systems
  • 9. Meet My Kids Aidan ODriscoll Liam ODriscoll
  • 10. Change in my Kids Lifetime By the year 2010 the codified information base of the world is expected to double every ______ (2 minutes) 11 Hours Pair Up: Decide what to put in the box!
  • 11. A Digital Divide of a Different Kind
  • 12. A Digital Divide of a Different Kind Explosion of information Hyperinflation of time Accelerated pace of change Constancy in human cognitive ability Digital Divide 100y=20,000y
  • 13. Future View: When Aidan is 27 and Liam is 24 By 2009 computers will disappear . Visual information will be written directly onto our retinas by devices in our eyeglasses or contact lenses. Going to a website will mean entering a virtual reality environment. By 2029 we will have billions of nanobots traveling through the capillaries of our brain communicating directly with our biological neurons. Nanobots will take up positions close to very interneuronal connection coming from all of our biological sensory receptors. When we want to experience NON-VIRTUAL reality, the nanobots will just stay still. If we want to experience virtual reality, they will suppress all input coming from the real senses and replace them with the appropriate signals Ray Kurzweil
  • 14. Defining Virtual Worlds Sources: Business Week April 2006, The Economist. Living a Second Life, Sept. 28, 2006 Second Life is some unholy offspring of the movie The Matrix, the social networking site MySpace and the online marketplace eBay Business Week
  • 15. Virtual World Economics Source: Joe Miller. Linden Lab Clearly of social activity migrates to synthetic worlds, economic activity will go there as well. The volume of annual trade in synthetic worlds already exceeds $2B Castranova
  • 16. Describing MMORPGs Most MMORPGs offer players pre-fabricated or themed fantasy world The Economist
  • 17. MMORPG Economics EverQuest
      • EverQuests GDP made the virtual currency of Norrath the 77th largest country in the world somewhere between Bulgaria and Russia
    World of WarCraft
      • 8 Million WarCrafters
      • Average = 20 Hours/Week
      • Total WoW hours= 160Million
      • It would take IBMs entire workforce 12 weeks to match one week of WoW activity
  • 18. Aidan and Liam: Tomorrows Virtual World Workers? I confidently predict my children (4 and 6) will end up working in one of these worlds. Hunter
  • 19. A Paradigm Shattering Future View: Redux The way Kurzweil expressed it, at some point in time in the twenty-first century the standard personal computing device will have as much computing power as the human brain. Not long after that, it will have the computing power of all the human brains that have ever lived. One important use of all that power will be to upload brains and recreate consciousness inside silicon.. The place that I call Game World today, may develop into much more that a game in the near future. It may become just another place for the mind to be, a new and different earth. Castranova
  • 20. Practical Application Discussion
    • How will Synthetic Worlds Impact:
    • Your Nation?
    • Your State?
    • Your Enterprise (DOR)?
    • Your Life? (5 minutes)
    Discussion Questions
  • 21. Value Progression A basic progression governs the evolution of management in all market economies: Fundamental properties of the universe are transformed into scientific understanding, then developed into new technologies which are applied to create products and services for business, which ultimately define our models of organization . Meyer and Davis Economic Value Add Time Science Technology Business Organization
  • 22. Innovation Diffusion Source: IBM GIO 1.0
  • 23. Organization Metamorphosis Infrastructure Business Technology Primary Asset Main Output Organization ? ? Agrarian Age (??-1760) Local Market Family Farm The Plow Land Food Products Family Structure Industrial Age (1760-1960) Steel, Railroads The Factory The Machine Capital Equipment Mechanical Products Bureaucracy Information Age (1960-2020) Computers, Internet The Corporation The Transistor Intellectual Capital Knowledge Products
  • 24. Shrinking Paradigmatic Eras Source
  • 25. Welcome to the Molecular Economy Video Clip (Kurzweil and Venter) As the information economy matures, a new economic life cycle the molecular economy is reaching puberty. The two primary drivers are our understanding of the molecules that control chemical and biological functions and the super-minitaurization of manufacturing. Meyer and Davis
  • 26. Compression and the Structural Divide Americas business problem is that it is entering the twenty-first century with companies designed during the nineteenth century to work well in the twentieth. Hammer
  • 27. Four Phases across Four Economies Time Compression Between Ages Accelerated disruption of existing business/structure TBD TBD Bureaucracy Family Structure Organization TBD Corporation Factory Family Farm Business Genomics Nanotechnology Chips Software WWW Steam Electricity Seed/Feed Plow Technology Mollecular Science NanoScience Quantum Physics Newtons Physics Laws of Nature Science Molecular Economy Information Economy Industrial Economy Agrarian Economy
  • 28. Practical Application Discussion
    • How will the Arrival of the Molecular Economy and the Structural Divide impact:
    • Your Nation?
    • Your State?
    • Your Enterprise (DOR)?
    • (5 minutes)
    Discussion Questions
  • 29. Webvolution 3Di Web 2.0 Web 1.0