doomsday survival code export - ruoran's epi notes · •Imagine you’re writing a story on a...
Transcript of doomsday survival code export - ruoran's epi notes · •Imagine you’re writing a story on a...
DOOMSDAY SURVIVAL CODE A B E G I N N E R ’ S G U I D E T O
O U T B R E A K I N V E S T I G A T I O NR U O R A N L I , F E B 1 7 , 2 0 1 9
P U B L I C H E A L T H S Y M P O S I U M F O R Y O U N G L E A D E R S I N C H I N A
SARS 2002-03
What is this mysterious illness?
Where does it come from?
How many ill? How many dead?
Am I in danger?
How can I stay safe?
Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 22/17/19
ACUTE NEUROLOGICAL ENCEPHALOPATHY, INDIA, 1980S - 2017Is it really a new disease?Is it transmissible?Why are only some children sick?How can we stop the children from dying?How can we stop further disease?
Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 32/17/19
WHAT IS A DISEASE OUTBREAK?• Exercise: talk to your neighbors, and come up with three
outbreaks in history (past or present)
• Pre-class:�������
• Summarize definition
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WHY DO WE NEED TO INVESTIGATE DISEASE OUTBREAKS?• Studying a new phenomenon leads to new scientific
discoveries– knowledge and invention
• Control disease, reduce suffering– Medical and spiritual
– Reinstate societal functions: healthcare system, governance
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WWI
Great depression
WWII
Broadcast ad ban 1971
First modern report linking smoking and lung cancer 1950
Federal cigarette tax doubles 1983
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GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
Descriptive
ExplanatoryResponse
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S T E P S I N O U T B R E A K I N V E S T I G AT I O NA B E G I N N E R ’ S G U I D E
Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 82/17/19
OBJECTIVES OF A FIELD INVESTIGATION• Identify the:
– Disease-causing agent– Source, and/or– Mode of transmission
• Characterize the extent of the outbreak: who has been affected?• Identify exposures or risk factors
that increase risk of disease• Develop and implement control
and prevention measures
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Cholera in London
THE BEGINNING
• Imagine you’re writing a story on a deadly doomsday outbreak – the virus that’s going to kill everyone; zombies… Answer the following questions:
– Who is the hero of your story? How does he discover the outbreak? What does he do?
• Now think about what happens in real life…
– Who is usually the person that first discovers an outbreak?
– What would this person do next?Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 102/17/19
GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
Descriptive
ExplanatoryResponse
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THE DESCRIPTIVE PHASE
Describe Descriptive epidemiology: who, what, where, when?
Find Find cases systematically and record information
Define Verify the diagnosis and construct a case definition
Confirm Confirm existence of an outbreak
Prepare Prepare for fieldwork
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CDC HIV and AIDS timeline:https://npin.cdc.gov/pages/hiv-and-aids-timeline
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HIV in the US
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HOW DO YOU PREPARE FOR FIELDWORK?• Form a team
– Group work: who should be in a team?
• Learn about the disease• Make administrative, personnel,
and logistic arrangements• Coordinate with local contacts
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Epidemiology
LaboratoryEnvironmental
CONFIRM THE OUTBREAK• REMEMBER: not all increases in number of cases
represent outbreaks!
– What are examples of increases in cases that do NOT represent an outbreak?
• Review reports
• Confirm same disease
• Confirm the number of cases exceeds the usual number
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CASE DEFINITION2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 17
• laboratory confirmed, compatible symptoms, more specific Confirmed
• Compatible symptoms, epidemiologically linkedProbable
• Compatible symptoms, more sensitivePossible or Suspected
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MMWR 64(03);70-73
After defining a case, describe: who, where, when? Ebola, 2014
5 MIN BREAK
GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
Descriptive
ExplanatoryResponse
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THE EXPLANATORY PHASE
Reconcile Reconcile epidemiology with laboratory and environmental findings
Test Evaluate hypotheses epidemiologically
Hypothesize Develop hypotheses
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GENERATING HYPOTHESES IN AN OUTBREAK
• Hypothesis: educated guess about an association between an exposure and outcome, and/or about mode of spread.
– Testable
• How to generate hypothesis?– Subject-matter knowledge
– Descriptive epidemiology (where, who, where?)
– Outliers (�� ���������– Talk to people! (open ended questionnaires)
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investigation 22
EPIDEMIOLOGY (IN ONE SLIDE)• How do you test if something is a
cause for a disease?• Conduct a study by
1. identifying a cohort of people who have the potential to have the disease
2. Ask about their exposures (X)
3. Analyze the data on exposures and disease to test the hypotheses1. Are those exposed to X more
likely to get disease?
2. Are those with disease more likely to have been exposed to X?
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Naveen Phuyalhttps://www.slideshare.net/naveen5112/5-cohort-studies
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What patients reported in open ended interviews:• 5 of 5 ate ground beef • 3 of 5 ate strawberries • 5 of 5 ate raw cookie dough• 4 of 5 ate Brand X raw cookie dough
Cases Controls
Ate raw cookie dough 33 4
Did not eat raw cookie dough
3 33
Could this be due to chance? p<0.0001
E. coli through raw cookie dough
Epidemiology
LaboratoryEnvironmental
THE RESPONSE PHASE
Communicate Communicate findings
Surveillance Initiate or maintain surveillance
Control Implement and evaluate prevention and control measures
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R E L A T I V E P R I O R I T Y O F I N V E S T I G A T I V E A N D C O N T R O L M E A S U R E S
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PREVENTION AND CONTROL MEASURES• Immediate control measures
– Work with persons at risk
– Reduce mortality (early presentation, hypoglycemia)
– Reduce morbidity (food before bed)
• Long term control measures
– Work with regulators and government
– Address underlying vulnerabilities (under-nutrition)
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Acute neurological encephalopathy, India
WWI
Great depression
WWII
Broadcast ad ban 1971
First modern report linking smoking and lung cancer 1950
Federal cigarette tax doubles 1983
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GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
Descriptive
ExplanatoryResponse
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
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Dr. Kayla Laserson, Investigating Outbreaks course in HSPH (EPI523)
CDC EIS Resources
India EIS Programme
ASSIGNMENTA B E G I N N E R ’ S G U I D E TO O U T B R E A K I N V E S T I G AT I O N
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ASSIGNMENTOPTION A
• Choose one outbreak in history you’re interested in exploring. Focus on one outbreak (e.g. Ebola during 2014-15), rather than a disease.
• Describe to the class how this outbreak was investigated. Make sure to identify historical events with the different steps in an outbreak investigation you have learned in this class.
• As a bonus, critique aspects of the investigation and tell us what you would have done if you were investigating the outbreak.
– 5 min presentation
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OUTBREAKS MENTIONED IN THIS CLASS• SARS
• Acute neurological encephalopathy (lychee)
• Cholera
• HIV
• Ebola
• �����• Cookie dough E. coli outbreak
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But you can choose any other outbreak in history!
• Toxic shock syndrome
• Influenza during WWI
• A recent school/migrant tuberculosis outbreak
• MERS
• Others…
ASSIGNMENTOPTION B
• Either choose or design a fictional productwhich illustrates the ideas of an outbreak investigation
• Present to the class how this fictional productembodies the different steps in an outbreak investigation. Make sure to explain what this fictional product is, and answer the following questions:
– Which steps are illustrated in this product?
– Which steps are missing in this product?
– What is the role of individual citizens in this outbreak, and what is the role of the government in this outbreak?
– 5 min presentation
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FICTIONAL PRODUCT• A novel
• A painting
• A game
• A TV/radio show
• A song
• Anything else
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Extra challenge:Find a Chinese language literature/game/show!