Don Bay Tai Chinh Va Co Cau Von

8/3/2019 Don Bay Tai Chinh Va Co Cau Von

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Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright2005-2006

Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 1

Phn tch ti chnh

0

n by ti chnhv ccu vn

1

Cc khi nim v k nng then cht

Hiu c nh hng ca n by ti chnh ivi dng tin v chi ph s dng vn

Hiu c tc ng ca thu v ph sn i vivic chn la ccu vn

Hiu c nhng thnh phn cbn ca qu trnhph sn


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 2

Phn tch ti chnh

2

Khi qut chng ny

Vn ccu vn nh hng ca n by ti chnh Ccu vn v chi ph s dng vn shu nh l M&M I v II vi thu thu nhp doanh nghip Chi ph ph sn Ccu vn ti u Quay li vi cu chuyn bnh Ccu vn quan st c

Xem nhanh qu trnh ph sn

3

Ti ccu vn

Chng ta s xem th nhng thay i ca ccuvn nh hng nh th no n gi tr ca cngty, nu nhng yu t khc khng i

Ti ccu vn lin quan n vic thay i gi trn by ti chnh cng ty hin ang c m khngthay i ti sn ca cng ty

Tng n by ti chnh bng cch pht hnh nvmua li c phiu ang lu hnh

Gim nbng cch pht hnh c phiu mi v thuhi chng khon n ang lu hnh


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 3

Phn tch ti chnh

4

La chn mt ccu vn

Mc ch chnh ca cc gim c ti chnh l g? Ti a ho ca ci ca c ng

Chng ta mun chn mt ccu vn m ti aho ca ci c ng

Chng ta c th ti a ho ca ci c ng bngcch ti a ho gi tr cng ty hay ti thiu hoWACC

5

nh hng ca n by

n by nh hng nh th no n EPS v ROE camt cng ty?

Khi chng ta tng gi tr huy ng n, chng ta tng chiph li vay c nh

Nu chng ta c mt nm lm n thc s khm kh, thchng ta tr chi ph c nh v chng ta vn cn nhiutin li cho cc c ng

Nu chng ta c mt nm lm n bt bt, chng ta vnphi tr chi ph c nh v cn li t hn cho cc c ng

n by ti chnh phng i s bin thin ca EPS vROE


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 4

Phn tch ti chnh

6

V d: n by ti chnh, EPS v ROE

Lc ny, chng ta s b qua nh hng ca thu Chuyn g xy ra cho EPS v ROE khi chng ta

pht hnh nv mua li c phiu?

Financial Leverage Example

7

V d: n by ti chnh, EPS v ROE

Bin thin ca ROE Hin ti: ROE nm trong phm vi t 6.25% n

18.75% xut: ROE nm trong phm vi t 2.50% n

27.50%

Bin thin ca EPS Hin ti: EPS nm trong phm vi t $1.25 n $3.75 xut: EPS nm trong phm vi t $0.50 n $5.50

Bin thin ca ROE v EPS u tng ln khi tatng n by ti chnh


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 5

Phn tch ti chnh

8

EBIT ho vn

Tm EBIT m EPS ca ccu vn hin tiv ccu vn xut c gi tr bng nhau

Nu chng ta k vng EBIT ln hn im hovn, th n by ti chnh c li cho cc c ng

Nu chng ta k vng EBIT nh hn im hovn, th n by ti chnh gy thit hi cho cc cng

9

V d: EBIT ho vn

( )

$2.00400,000

800,000EPS

$800,000EBIT

800,0002EBITEBIT

400,000EBIT200,000

400,000EBIT

200,000

400,000EBIT

400,000

EBIT

==

=

=

=

=

Break-even Graph


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 6

Phn tch ti chnh

10

V d: n by t to v ROE

Ccu vn hin ti

Nh u t vay $2000 v sdng $2000 ca mnh mua 200 c phn thng

Kt qu: Tnh hung suy thoi:

200(1.25) - .1(2000) = $50 K vng: 200(2.50) - .1(2000)

= $300 Tnh hung pht t:

200(3.75) - .1(2000) = $550

Phn nh kt qu ca vicmua 100 c phn t cng tytheo ccu vn xut

Ccu vn xut Nh u t mua c phiu tr

gi $1000 (50 c phn) v triphiu cng ty tr gi $1000hng li 10%.

Kt qu: Tnh hung suy thoi: 50(.50) +

.1(1000) = $125 K vng: 50(3.00) + .1(1000) =

$250 Tnh hung pht t: 50(5.50) +

.1(1000) = $375

Phn nh kt qu ca vic mua100 c phn theo ccu vn

hin ti

11

L thuyt ccu vn

L thuyt Modigliani v Miller v ccu vn nh l I Gi tr cng ty

nh l II WACC

Gi tr ca cng ty c xc nh bng dng tin

ca cng ty v ri ro ca ti sn Thay i gi tr cng ty

Thay i ri ro ca dng tin

Thay i dng tin


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 7

Phn tch ti chnh

12

L thuyt ccu vn trong ba trnghp c bit

Trng hp I Cc gi nh Khng c thu thu nhp cng ty hay thu thu nhp c nhn

Khng c chi ph ph sn

Trng hp II Cc gi nh C thu thu nhp cng ty, nhng khng c thu thu nhp c nhn

Khng c chi ph ph sn

Trng hp III Cc gi nh C thu thu nhp cng ty, nhng khng c thu thu nhp c nhn

C chi ph ph sn

13

Trng hp I nh l I v II

nh l I Gi tr ca cng ty KHNG b nh hng bi nhng

thay i ca ccu vn

Dng tin ca cng ty khng thay i, do gi tr

cng ty khng thay i nh l II

WACC ca cng ty KHNG b nh hng bi ccuvn


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 8

Phn tch ti chnh

14

Trng hp I Cc phng trnh

WACC = RA = (E/V)RE + (D/V)RD

RE = RA + (RA RD)(D/E)

RA l chi ph ri ro kinh doanh ca cng ty, ngha lri ro ca ti sn ca cng ty

(RA RD)(D/E) l chi ph ri ro ti chnh ca cngty, ngha l sinh li tng thm m cc c ng yu cu n b cho ri ro ca n by ti chnh

15

Chi ph s dngvn (%)

T s n trnvn s hu

theo nh l M&M II

Trong


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 9

Phn tch ti chnh

16

Trng hp I V d

S liu Sut sinh li yu cu i vi ti sn = 16%, chi ph s

dng n= 10%; phn trm n= 45% Chi ph s dng vn shu l bao nhiu?

RE = .16 + (.16 - .10)(.45/.55) = .2091 = 20.91% Gi s thay v nh th, chi ph s dng vn shu by

gil 25%, t s ntrn vn shu bng bao nhiu? .25 = .16 + (.16 - .10)(D/E) D/E = (.25 - .16) / (.16 - .10) = 1.5

Da vo nhng thng tin ny, t l phn trm vn shu

trong cng ty l bao nhiu? E/V = 1 / 2.5 = 40%

17

CAPM, SML v nh l II

n by ti chnh nh hng nh th no n riro h thng?

CAPM: RA = Rf+ A(RM Rf) Trong A l h s beta ca ti sn cng ty v xc

nh ri ro h thng ca ti sn cng ty nh l II

Thay th RA vi CAPM v gi nh rng nkhng cri ro (RD = Rf)

RE = Rf+ A(1+D/E)(RM Rf)


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 10

Phn tch ti chnh

18

Ri ro kinh doanh v ri ro ti chnh

RE = Rf+ A(1+D/E)(RM Rf) CAPM: RE = Rf+ E(RM Rf)

E = A(1 + D/E)

Do , ri ro h thng ca c phiu ph thucvo: Ri ro h thng ca ti sn, A, (ri ro kinh doanh) Mc n by ti chnh, D/E, (ri ro ti chnh)

19

Trng hp II Dng tin

Li vay c khu tr thu

Do , khi mt cng ty b sung thm n, cng tys gim c tin thu, nu nhng yu t khckhng c g thay i

Vic gim thu lm tng dng tin ca cng ty Dng tin tng nh hng nh th no n gi tr

ca cng ty?


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 11

Phn tch ti chnh

20

Trng hp II V d

34703300CFFA

29703300Thu nhp rng

15301700Thu (34%)

45005000Thu nhp chuthu

5000Li vay

50005000EBIT

Cng ty vay nCng ty khngvay n

21

L chn thu ca li vay

L chn thu hng nm ca li vay Thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty nhn cho tin li

N6250 vi li sut 8% = 500 chi ph li

L chn thu hng nm = .34(500) = 170

Gi tr hin ti ca l chn thu hng nm n gin, ta gi nh nvnh cu

PV = 170 / .08 = 2125

PV = D(RD)(TC) / RD = DTC = 6250(.34) = 2125


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 12

Phn tch ti chnh

22

Trng hp II nh l I

Gi tr ca cng ty tng ln mt lng bng gi trhin ti ca l chn thu hng nm t li vay Gi tr ca cng ty khi c vay n= Gi tr ca cng ty

khi khng vay n+ Gi tr hin ti ca l chn thu tli vay

Gi tr vn shu = Gi tr cng ty Gi tr n

Gi nh dng tin vnh cu

VU = EBIT(1-T) / RU VL = VU + DTC

23

V d: Trng hp II nh l I

S liu EBIT = 25 triu -la; Thu sut = 35%; N= 75 triu

-la; Chi ph s dng n= 9%; Chi ph s dng vnca cng ty khi khng vay n= 12%

VU = 25(1-.35) / .12 = 135.42 triu -la VL = 135.42 + 75(.35) = 161.67 triu -la

E = 161.67 75 = 86.67 triu -la


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 13

Phn tch ti chnh

24

Gi tr ca cng ty

Tng n

Gi tr ca cng ty tng khi tng n tng do l chn thu t li vay.y lc s ca nh l M&M I khi c thu.

25

Trng hp II nh l II

WACC gim khi D/E tng v chnh ph khngnh thu i vi li vay RA = (E/V)RE + (D/V)(RD)(1-TC) RE = RU + (RU RD)(D/E)(1-TC)

V d RE = .12 + (.12-.09)(75/86.67)(1-.35) = 13.69% RA = (86.67/161.67)(.1369) + (75/161.67)(.09)

(1-.35)RA = 10.05%


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 14

Phn tch ti chnh

26

V d: Trng hp II nh l II

Gi s cng ty thay i ccu vn sao cho t sntrn vn shu trnn bng 1. iu g s xy ra cho chi ph s dng vn shu

ng vi ccu vn mi? RE = .12 + (.12 - .09)(1)(1-.35) = 13.95%

iu g s xy ra cho chi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s? RA = .5(.1395) + .5(.09)(1-.35) = 9.9%

27

Theonh l M&M I khi c thu, WACC ca cngty gim xung khi cng ty huy ng n nhiu hn

Chi ph s dng vn

Theonh l M&M II khi c thu, chi ph vn s hu ca cng ty tng ln khi cng ty huy ng n nhiu hn

T s n trn vn s hu


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 15

Phn tch ti chnh

28

Trng hp III

By gichng ta b sung thm chi ph ph sn Khi t s D/E tng ln, xc sut ph sn tng ln Xc sut ph sn tng s lm tng chi ph ph sn k vng n mt im no , gi tr tng ln ca l chn thu t

li vay s b b tr bi chi ph ph sn k vng im ny, gi tr ca cng ty s bt u gim v WACC

s bt u tng khi cng ty vay thm n

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Chi ph ph sn

Nhng chi ph trc tip Chi ph php l v chi ph qun l Cui cng lm cho cc c ng phi pht sinh thm tn

tht Lm cho ngi ta nn lng, khng mun huy ng n

Tnh trng khn kh v ti chnh Nhng kh khn ng k trong vic p ng cc ngha

v n Hu ht nhng cng ty tri qua tnh trng khn kh v ti

chnh cui cng khng n mc phi np h sph sn


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 16

Phn tch ti chnh

30

Chi ph ph sn

Chi ph ph sn gin tip Ln hn nhng chi ph trc tip, nhng kh o lng v

c lng hn Cc c ng mun trnh khng cho xy ra vic chnh thc

np h sxin ph sn Cc ch nmun gi nguyn nhng ti sn hin hu ch

t h cng c th nhn c lng tin Ti sn mt gi tr khi i ng qun l mt thi gian lo lng

vic trnh n ph sn thay v iu hnh hot ng kinhdoanh

Ngoi ra, cng ty cn b mt doanh s, gin on hot ngv mt i nhng ngi lao ng ng gi

31

Gi tr ca cng ty

Gi tr hin ti cal chn thu

Gi tr ti aca cng ty Gi tr thc t ca cng ty

Chi ph nguy kchti chnh

Gi tr cng ty khikhng c n

Tng n

Lng n ti u

Theo l thuyt tnh, li ch t l chn thu b b tr bi chi ph ca tnh trng khnkh v ti chnh. C cu vn ti u tn ti im cn bng gia li ch tng thmt n by ti chnh v chi ph khn kh ti chnh tng thm.


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 17

Phn tch ti chnh

32

Chi ph s dng vn

T s n-vn s hu

Chi ph s dngvn WACC*

ti thiu

T s n-vn s hu ti u

Theo l thuyt tnh, WACC thot u gim do li th v thu ca n. Vtqua im D*/E*, WACC bt u tng ln do chi ph khn kh ti chnh.

33

Kt lun Trng hp I Khng c thu hay chi ph ph sn

Khng c ccu vn ti u

Trng hp II C thu thu nhp cng ty nhng khngc chi ph ph sn Ccu vn ti u l 100% n Mi mt -la ntng thm s lm tng dng tin ca cng

ty Trng hp III C thu thu nhp cng ty v c chi ph

ph sn Ccu vn ti u l mt phn nv mt phn vn shu Xy ra khi li ch t mt -la ntng thm va b tr

bi s gia tng chi ph ph sn k vng


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 18

Phn tch ti chnh

34

Gi tr cng ty

Chi ph s dngvn bnh qun

trng s (%)

Trng hp IIM&M c thu

Li chrngt n by

PV cachi ph phsn

Trng hp III, L thuyt tnh

Trng hp I, M&M khng thu

Tng n (D)

Trng hp I, khikhng c thu hay chi ph ph sn, gi tr ca cngty vchi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s khng b nhhng bi c cu thu

Trng hp II, khi cthu vkhngc chi ph ph sn, gi tr cngty tngv chi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s gim khilng n tngln.

Trng hp III, khic thu vc chi ph ph sn, gi tr cngty VL t ti a im D*, tiu biucho lng n ti u. Vo lcny, chi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s WACC t g i tr cc tiu ti D*/E*.

Trng hp III, L thuyt tnh

Trng hp II, M&M cthu

T s n-vn s hu (D/E)

Tit kimrngt n byTrng hp I, M&M khng thu

35

Nhng kin ngh v mt qun tr

Li ch thu ca li vay ch quan trng khi cngty c mt ngha v thu ln

Ri ro ca tnh trng khn kh v ti chnh Ri ro khn kh ti chnh cng ln, th lng nt hn

s l ti u i vi cng ty Chi ph khn kh ti chnh thay i tu theo tng cng

ty v tng ngnh, v l nh qun tr, bn cn hiu chiph i vi ngnh kinh doanh ca mnh


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 19

Phn tch ti chnh

36

n by ti chnh thp n by ti chnh cao

N N

Phn cach s hu Phn ca

ch s hu

Phn linquan nph sn

Thu

Phn linquan nphsn

Thu

Trong m hnh bnh m rng, gi tr ca t c cc quyni vi ngn luca cng ty khng b nh hng bi c cu vn, nhng gi tr tng ica tng quyn thay i khi lng n huy ng tng ln.

37

Gi tr ca cng ty Gi tr ca cng ty = Cc quyn c th trao i +

cc quyn khng th trao i Quyn c th mua bn l quyn ca c ng v ch n Quyn khng mua bn l quyn ca chnh ph v cc

thnh phn c lin quan tim nng khc

Gi tr chung ca cng ty khng b nh hng binhng thay i ca ccu vn S phn chia gi tr gia quyn c th trao i v

quyn khng th trao i c th chu tc ng canhng quyt nh v ccu vn


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 20

Phn tch ti chnh

38

Ccu vn m ta quan st c

Ccu vn thay i theo tng ngnh kinh doanhkhc nhau S khc bit cn c theoNin gim chi ph s

dng vn 2000 ca Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Mc nthp nht Ngnh dc phm vi 2.75% n Ngnh my tnh vi 6.91% n

Mc ncao nht Ngnh thp vi 55.84% n Ca hng kinh doanh tng hp vi 50.53% n

39

V d trn Web

Bn c th tm thy thng tin v ccu vn camt cng ty so vi ccu ton ngnh, khu vc, vS&P 500 Yahoo Marketguide

Nhp chut vo cng c d tm i ti trang

web Chn mt cng ty v mt bng nim yt

Chn so snh t s


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Bi ging

Viktoria Dalko 21

Phn tch ti chnh

40

Qu trnh ph sn Phn I

Tht bi kinh doanh vic kinh doanh kt thcvi s thit hi cho cc ch n

Ph sn chnh thc n xin ph sn np cho toph sn lin bang

Khng tr c nv mt k thut cng tykhng th p ng cc ngha v n

Khng tr c nv mt k ton gi tr s

sch ca vn shu c gi tr m

41

Qu trnh ph sn Phn II

Thanh l Chng 7 ca Lut ph sn lin bang ci cch nm 1978

n v c u thc s tip qun ti sn, bn ti sn v phn phitin thu c cn c theo nguyn tc u tin tuyt i

Ti t chc Chng 11 ca Lut ph sn lin bang ci cch nm 1978 Ti ccu cng ty vi mt iu khon qui nh vic hon tr cho

cc ch n


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Bi gingPhn tch ti chnh

42

Hi p nhanh

Gii thch nh hng ca n by ti chnh ivi EPS v ROE EBIT ho vn l g? Lm th no chng ta xc nh c ccu vn

ti u? Ccu vn ti u trong ba trng hp tho lun

trong chng ny l g? S khc bit gia thanh l cng ty v ti t chc

cng ty l g?

Don Bay Tai Chinh Va Co Cau Von

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