Dominant Modes of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using Equivalent Potential Temperature Jun-Hyeok Son...
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Dominant Modes of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using Equivalent
Potential Temperature
Jun-Hyeok Son and Kyong-Hwan Seo
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Koreaemail: [email protected]
East Asian Summer MonsoonEast Asian Summer Monsoon
EPT and dEPT/dy June
EPT and dEPT/dy July
Color : 850-hPa Equivelant potential temperature (EPT)Contour : Meridional gradient of EPT
Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab
A method for determining stationary frontA method for determining stationary front
- Surface water chart (KMA)
- Meridional gradient of 850-hPa equivalent potential temperature (EPT)
서 론 서 론
Color : precipitation meanContour : interannual STD
East Asian Summer MonsoonEast Asian Summer Monsoon
Precipitation
June
July Aug.
JJA
Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab
- 850-hPa EPT (color)- 850-hPa wind (vector)
General characteristics during the Changma General characteristics during the Changma periodperiod
Okhotsk Sea high is strong in June.WNPSH is dominant in July.
June July
Multi-variables EOF using EPT, u-wind and v-wind in 850-hPa
Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab
General characteristics during the Changma General characteristics during the Changma periodperiod
Wave-train from Western North Pacific (July)
Wave-train from North Atlantic Ocean (June)
Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab
General characteristics during the Changma General characteristics during the Changma periodperiod
June MAM(0) July MAM(0)
June JJA(0) July JJA(0)
- Correlation of SST (color)
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측Quick summeryQuick summeryCorrelation matrix EOF for
EPT
Dominent modes of EASM in JulyDominent modes of EASM in July
First three modes of EOF (color) and regressed precipitation (contour)
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측Quick summeryQuick summeryDominent modes of EASM in JulyDominent modes of EASM in July
PC1 PC2 PC3
JJA
DJF
MAM
DJF(-1)
SST correlation map
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측
Color : PrecipitationVector : 500-hPa wind
Westerly wind
Low
High
Low
Quick summeryQuick summeryDominent modes of EASM in JulyDominent modes of EASM in JulyDynamical mechanism (mode
1)
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측
Color : T500, Contour : Z500, Vector : 200-hPa wind
Low
High
Quick summeryQuick summeryDominent modes of EASM in JulyDominent modes of EASM in JulyDynamical mechanism (mode
2)
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측
Color : Precipitation, Vector : 500-hPa wind
Westerly
High
Quick summeryQuick summeryDominent modes of EASM in JulyDominent modes of EASM in JulyDynamical mechanism (mode
3)
Low
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측
P = + 0.82A(May) - 0.72B(Mar. ~ Apr.) + 0.50C(May – Apr.) + 0.68D(Apr.)
Domain of PRCP : [116.25 ~ 141.25°E, 31.25 ~ 41.25°N]
Quick summeryQuick summeryWork in progress......Work in progress......Physical-statistical prediction
model
동아시아 몬순 예측 동아시아 몬순 예측
GMSS (0.67)
Forecast
Above Normal Below
OBS
Above 2006, 2009, 2012
2003, 2007, 2011
Normal 2005, 2010
1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2001
1999
Below 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008
- Observation- Forecast
Quick summeryQuick summeryWork in progress......Work in progress......Development of physical-
statistical prediction model
Forecast using previous spring (until May) SST
Interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon is dominated by different mode in June and July. - June : Okhotsk Sea high (mP) - July : WNPSH (mT)
Based on these analysis, physical-statistical prediction model is built up for the forecast of the precipitation in July. (correlation : 0.78, RMSE : 0.75).
The CP El-Nino, PDO and Indian Ocean basin wide warming affect to the East Asian summer monsoon in July. These boundary forcing make atmospheric waves and significantly intensify the East Asian summer monsoon front.
1
3
2
SummerySummery
Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab
Thank you.Thank you.
Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab