Domestic Energy Demand:Projections to 2030

Diana Dixon

Current situation:Domestic energy consumption end use

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

PJ

Space heating

Water heating

Cooking

Lighting and appliances

Total

Domestic Consumption 2007

56%26%

3%

15%

Domestic Consumption 1970

60%

27%

6%7%

• Space heating is the

largest energy use

• Space heating has been reducing over the last few years

• Appliances have increased since the 70’s

Current situation:Domestic energy end use and fuel 2007

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Space heating Water Cooking Lighting andAppliances

Oil

Electricity

Gas

Solid fuel

Gas currently represents: 84% of space heating 79% of water heating

Consumer switching cost from Gas to Electricity / renewable energy will be high

Source: domestic 2009, DECC

Key drivers of domestic demand

Conservation

Population

Number of Households

Appliances & trends

Outdoor temperature

Looking forward:Population & Housing statistics

27.8m households by 2031 (+252,000 households p.a.)

Currently 26% elderly heads of household 32% in 2031 (6 percentage points increase)

13% people live alone now 18% will live alone in 2031

Source: http://www.communities.gov.uk

Space Heating: Conservation measures

95% of suitable households have loft insulation

85% of housing stock has double glazing 40% suitable properties have cavity wall

insulation

Assumption: 0.5% improvement p.a. due to new housing stock & conservation measures

Space Heating:Heating-degree days

Reduction of 300 days over 40 years = 0.29% p.a.

Assume that this trend will continue

Source: sciencedirect.com

Space Heating:Aging population

Implications: More people at home

during the day Lower metabolic rates Thermal comfort defined

as between 20-24°C by WHO

10% increase in space heating in 6% of households.

For every 1°C of energy the requirement is 8-10°C in the UK

Negligible impact on space heating ~0.93% by 2030

Age composition of the older population, UK

Source: Office of national statistics

Lights & AppliancesAssumptions:

Number of major appliances per household is close to saturation point.

New technology / consumer electronics demand will be off-set by:– Reduced average household size– Improved energy efficiency – Low energy lightbulbs - assume a switch over of

100% by 2020 (395,524 x 20%)

Water & Cooking:Assume that ratio for cooking and water will remain flat - aligned to no of households

Domestic Projections to 2030

Year Space Heating

Water Cooking Lighting & Appliances

Total (PJ )

2010 1,013 491 56 294 1,854

2015 1,054 518 59 311 1,942

2020 1,093 546 65 327 2,031

2025 1,131 573 65 344 2,113

2030 1,167 600 68 360 2,197

Year Population(m)

No. of households

People per household

Gas Electricity Oil Total (PJ )

2010 62 22.5 2.75 1,275 430 120 1,854

2015 64 23.7 2.69 1,333 454 126 1,942

2020 66 25.0 2.64 1,390 478 131 2,029

2025 69 26.2 2.62 1,445 500 136 2,113

2030 70 27.5 2.54 1,499 523 141 2,197

(Using the current ratios for the domestic uses)