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Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030 Diana Dixon.
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Transcript of Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030 Diana Dixon.
Domestic Energy Demand:Projections to 2030
Diana Dixon
Current situation:Domestic energy consumption end use
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
PJ
Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Lighting and appliances
Total
Domestic Consumption 2007
56%26%
3%
15%
Domestic Consumption 1970
60%
27%
6%7%
• Space heating is the
largest energy use
• Space heating has been reducing over the last few years
• Appliances have increased since the 70’s
Current situation:Domestic energy end use and fuel 2007
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Space heating Water Cooking Lighting andAppliances
Oil
Electricity
Gas
Solid fuel
Gas currently represents: 84% of space heating 79% of water heating
Consumer switching cost from Gas to Electricity / renewable energy will be high
Source: domestic 2009, DECC
Key drivers of domestic demand
Conservation
Population
Number of Households
Appliances & trends
Outdoor temperature
Looking forward:Population & Housing statistics
27.8m households by 2031 (+252,000 households p.a.)
Currently 26% elderly heads of household 32% in 2031 (6 percentage points increase)
13% people live alone now 18% will live alone in 2031
Source: http://www.communities.gov.uk
Space Heating: Conservation measures
95% of suitable households have loft insulation
85% of housing stock has double glazing 40% suitable properties have cavity wall
insulation
Assumption: 0.5% improvement p.a. due to new housing stock & conservation measures
Space Heating:Heating-degree days
Reduction of 300 days over 40 years = 0.29% p.a.
Assume that this trend will continue
Source: sciencedirect.com
Space Heating:Aging population
Implications: More people at home
during the day Lower metabolic rates Thermal comfort defined
as between 20-24°C by WHO
10% increase in space heating in 6% of households.
For every 1°C of energy the requirement is 8-10°C in the UK
Negligible impact on space heating ~0.93% by 2030
Age composition of the older population, UK
Source: Office of national statistics
Lights & AppliancesAssumptions:
Number of major appliances per household is close to saturation point.
New technology / consumer electronics demand will be off-set by:– Reduced average household size– Improved energy efficiency – Low energy lightbulbs - assume a switch over of
100% by 2020 (395,524 x 20%)
Water & Cooking:Assume that ratio for cooking and water will remain flat - aligned to no of households
Domestic Projections to 2030
Year Space Heating
Water Cooking Lighting & Appliances
Total (PJ )
2010 1,013 491 56 294 1,854
2015 1,054 518 59 311 1,942
2020 1,093 546 65 327 2,031
2025 1,131 573 65 344 2,113
2030 1,167 600 68 360 2,197
Year Population(m)
No. of households
People per household
Gas Electricity Oil Total (PJ )
2010 62 22.5 2.75 1,275 430 120 1,854
2015 64 23.7 2.69 1,333 454 126 1,942
2020 66 25.0 2.64 1,390 478 131 2,029
2025 69 26.2 2.62 1,445 500 136 2,113
2030 70 27.5 2.54 1,499 523 141 2,197
(Using the current ratios for the domestic uses)