DoesSocialMediaUseReflectPoliticalPreferencesandVoting?DanielleTackoor

DanielleTackoor

TableofContents

Introduction..............................................................................................................................3

LiteratureReview....................................................................................................................6The2009GermanFederalElection.............................................................................................6The2012U.S.PresidentialElection............................................................................................8The2014IndianGeneralElection............................................................................................10

Methodology...........................................................................................................................12AnalysisofData.....................................................................................................................13The2009GermanFederalElection..........................................................................................13The2012U.S.PresidentialElection.........................................................................................15The2014IndianGeneralElection............................................................................................17

Conclusion...............................................................................................................................19WorksCited……………………………………………………………………………………………………….19

IntroductionTheriseofonlinemedia–socialnetworkingsites,blogs,email,andotheronlinemediaplatformshasprovidedthepublicwithanewavenueforparticipatorycitizenship,informationandknowledgesharing,inclusionandempowerment.Socialmediasitescanserveasplatformsforcampaigns,publicdebateandactasabasisformonitoringtrends.Intheory,digitaltechnologyallowsleaderstoengageinanewlevelof“conversation”withvoters,transformingthecampaignintosomethingmoredynamic,moreofadialogue,thanitwasinthe20thcentury.1Fromthe2008U.S.presidentialelectionstothefederalelectionofthenationalparliamentinGermanyin2009,totheArabSpringin2011,politiciansandcitizenshavevoicedtheiropinionsandfostereddiscussionsonFacebookandTwitter.

ThefirstsuccessfuluseofharnessingsocialmediaasapoliticalplatformwasBarackObama’spresidentialcampaignin2008.Obamahadmorethan2millionAmericansupportersonFacebook,112,000peopletweetingabouthim,and115,000subscriberstohisYouTubechannel.Obamachangedthelandscapefromcreatingrelationshipsandin-personconversationstotakingtheseactionsonlineandinvolvingtheproletariattodiscusshispolicies.Followingthe2008U.S.Presidentialelection,socialmediahasbecomeacriticalcomponentinacampaign’scommunicationsstrategy.Campaignsareincreasinglymonitoringthecontentofonlinemessagesandtryingtorecreatetheirmessagesaroundthepublicsentiment.

Socialmediahasonlybeenusedinelectionsforthepast8yearsby

candidatesandbythepeople.Mostcampaignsareslowtoadoptnewtechnologiesandliketomakesuretheyhaveaprovenmethodofsuccessbeforeimplementingthemintotheirplans.WhileFacebookandTwitterwerecreatedin2004and2006respectively,campaignsdidnotfullyutilizethesetoolsuntil2010.Socialmediaisbeneficialforbothcandidatesandvoters.FacebookandTwittercanprovidecampaignswithinformationaboutpotentialvoters,aplatformforcirculatingmessages,andaspaceinwhichtoaskandencourageanyvarietyofparticipatory

1PewResearchCenter:Journalism&MediaStaff.HowthePresidentialCandidatesUseWebandSocialMedia.(PewResearchCenter,2012),1.

ABSTRACT

InthispaperIlookattheroleofsocialmediaplatformsduringanelectionyear.Bylookingattweets,hashtagsandmentionsofcertainpoliticalcandidatesIcomparewhatissaidonlinetopublicopinionpollsconductedduringtheelectionandthefinalelectionresult.andhowmicroblogginghowsocialmediaplatform

actions.2Thealgorithmsusedbybothwebsitesalsohelptocreateaboostingettingacandidate’smessageouttomorepeople.Whenapostislikedorsharedbyahighnumberofpeopleoneisfriendswithorfollows,thesesiteswillmakesureyouseethiscontent,sincethe(sites)believeitisimportanttoyouasauser.In2010,52%ofadultsintheUnitedStates,whichamountedto73%ofInternetusers,wentonlinetogetnewsorinformationregardinganelection.Outofthoseadultspolled,32%usedtheInternetastheirmainsourceofpoliticalinformation.3

Beforethe2008U.S.presidentialelection,mostcitizensthroughouttheglobereceivedtheirnewsfromtraditionalmediaoutletssuchasprint(newspapers),televisionandradio.Therehavebeenmultiplestudiesonhoweachmediumhasabiastothemandprojectstheirrespectiveviewsandbeliefsontotheiraudience.Thisbiascaninfluencevoters,especiallymoderatevoters.Anendorsementfromapublicationisinfluentialinthesensethatvotersaremorelikelytosupporttherecommendedcandidateafterpublicationoftheendorsement.4

Themediahasbeenakeyingredientinthedevelopmentofawell-

functioningdemocracy.5Ithashelpedmanyvotersmakeinformeddecisionsonwhichcandidatetheyshouldvotefor.Newsoutletsareassumedtoreceiveunbiasedsignalsovercandidatequality.But,itistheroleofthepublicationtoreceiveinformationonthecandidatequalityandmakeendorsementsbasedoffofthisinformationaswellastheirownpoliticalviewpoints.Voterswanttobeinformedonacandidate’spositionandplatform,andinordertomakethebestdecisionbasedofftheirviews,theyturnedtoabetter-informedsource.Whiletraditionalmediaoutletsareinformative,theytendtohaveabiastothemanddonotfosteraconversationbetweentheirideologiesandthecitizens.InastudyconductedbythePewResearchCenter,49%ofrespondentsreportedthattheyhad“hardlyanyconfidenceinthemedia”,asopposedto“agreatdealofconfidence”or“someconfidence”.6

TheadventofsocialmediachannelslikeTwitterischangingthelandscapeof

citizenryanddemocracy.Insteadofvotersbeingtoldaboutacandidate’sposition,Twittercreatesaplatformwherecandidatescandiscusstheirviewsandcitizenscanvoicetheiropinionsonthoseviews,thusfosteringabackandforthconversation.Traditionalmediaonlyfulfilledpartofwhatsocialmediaisdoingtoday.Whilecandidatescouldbroadcasttheirstanceonvariousissues,therewasnoplatformforconversationbetweenthecandidatesandthecitizens.Thebiggestdifferencebetweensocialmediaandtraditionalmedia,isthattraditionalmediais

2JessicaBaldwin-Philippi,UsingTechnology,BuildingDemocracy:DigitalCampaigningandtheConstructionofCitizenship(OxfordUniversityPress2015),22.3AaronSmith,TheInternetandCampaign2010(PewInternet&AmericanLifeProject,2011)4MediaBiasandInfluence:EvidencefromNewspaperEndorsements5Ibid.6Ibid.

passive.Socialmedianotonlyencouragesaresponsefromfansandfollowersbutrequiresone.Forthemostpart,traditionalmediaisnotinteractiveanddoesnotfosterconnectivity.Whilepeoplecouldwriteletterstotheeditororcallintoaradioprogramtogivetheirthoughtsonthesubjectmatter,TwitterandFacebookallowingmorepeopletobeheard.Theycanjoininonconversationsbyusingcertainhashtagsandcommunicatewithpeoplealloverthecountry.

Inthespringof2011,hundredsofthousandsofyouthactivistsacrossthe

MiddleEastusedTwittertomobilizeandspreadthewordaboutprotestsagainsttheirrespectivegovernments.Sincethen,politicalscientistshavebeenfascinatedbytheimpactsocialmediahasonpoliticalmobilizationandwhetheritcanpredicttheoutcomeofelections.Actingasabullhorn,isTwittermoreeffectiveintakingacensusofthenation’sattitudestowardsapoliticalcandidatemoresothantraditionalopinionpolls?

Whilescholarshavelookedatelectionsintheirowncountries,thispaper

seekstousetheexistingresearchthatisoutthereandapplythosefindingstosomeofthemosttalkedaboutinternationalelectionstoconfirmordenyifsocialmediaconversationscanpredicttheoutcomeofelections.Theaimofthepaperistoprovidetheinternationalpoliticalcommunitywithcomparativeresearchthattheycanusewhenconductingtheirresearch.Thisanalysisoftweetsmentioningpoliticalpartiesorcandidatescandemonstratetheclosecorrespondencetotheparties’andpoliticians’positionsindicatingthatthecontentof140-characterTwittermessagesplausiblyreflectstheofflinepoliticallandscape.

Thispaperattemptstoseeifwhatissaidonlinemirrorstheresultsofan

election.Doesthepoliticalatmosphereonlinemimictheendresultsofanelection?Iwillanswerthisquestionbylookingatthreecasestudiesinternationally:the2009Germanfederalelection,the2012U.Spresidentialelection,andthe2014Indiangeneralelection.Eachoftheseelectionsissignificantbecauseoftheirdates.Beforesocialmediatookoffasapoliticalmeasuringtool,theGermanfederalelectionwasheld.The2012U.S.presidentialelectionhappenedatatimewhenpoliticalscientistsandresearchersstartedtounderstandtheimportanceofsocialmediaandwantedtoseehowiteffectedelections.The2014IndiangeneralelectionwascalledtheTwitterelection.By2014,TwitterpositioneditselfasaplatformwhereIndiancitizenscouldgetnewsandupdatesregardingtheelectiononthatplatform.Myresearchwillincludefindingcorrelationsbetweentheopinionpollsconductedintheweeksleadinguptotheelectionandthefinalelectionresultscomparedwiththementionsandattitudesofacandidatesnameandrelevanthashtags.Iwillbetakingintoaccountthelocationoftweetssent,theinflectionofthetweets(weretheypositiveornegative),andthenumberofpeoplechattingaboutacandidateandtheirpoliticalparty.IhypothesizethatwhatissaidonTwitter,doesinfactmirrorthepoliticallandscapeofthatgivenelectionanddoespredictwhowillwintheelection.SomeofthefactorsIwillbeconsideringaretheeconomicdevelopmentofthecountry,freedomofspeech,andaccesstoInternet.

LiteratureReviewTherehavebeenmanycasestudiesontheimpactofsocialmediaonvariouselectionsthroughouttheworld.Butnonehavelookedatdifferinginternationalcasesfromvariouspointsintimetoseehowglobalpoliticsisinfluenced.Bylookingattheonlinepoliticallandscapeofeachcasestudywecandecipherhowworldleaderswillinteractwitheachotherandhowtheywillworktogethertoformglobalpolicy.

Politicalscientistshavelookedatifsocialmediahasanimpactonelectionsintheircountries.BelowIreviewthefindingsfromastudyonthe2009Germanfederalelection,the2012U.Spresidentialelectionandthe2014IndianGeneralelection.

The2009GermanFederalElectionThedatasetprovidedbyateamofpoliticalscientistsattheUniversityofMunichsetsthetestingstandardsformyresearchonotherelectionsaroundtheglobe.TheseresearcherswantedtoevaluateifTwittermessagesreflectedtheofflinepoliticalattitudesinameaningfulwayandifafteranalyzingthosetweets,whethertheactivityonTwittercanbeusedtopredictthepopularityofpartiesinthe“realworld”.Theresearchersused104,003tweetspublishedintheweeksleadinguptothefederalelectionofthenationalparliamentinGermany,whichtookplaceonSeptember27th,2009.7Duringthiselectioncycle,manyGermanscalledtheparties’campaignsuninspiringduetotheunwillingnessofthemaincandidatestoattacktheirthen-coalitionpartners.

ToseeifTwitterwasausefulplatformforpoliticaldeliberation,thepolitical

scientistscollectedalltweetsthatcontainedthenamesofthe6partiesrepresentedintheGermanparliamentandselectedpoliticiansoftheseparties.Anotheraspecttheseresearcherstookintoaccountwassentiment.Byfocusingon12dimensions(futureorientation,pastorientation,positiveemotions,negativeemotions,sadness,anxiety,anger,tentativeness,certainty,work,achievement,andmoney),toprofilepoliticalsentimenttheywereabletotestemotion.

Intheirresults,theresearchersfoundthatdespiteonlyhavinga140-

characterlimit,substantiveissuescanbeexpressed.Figure1showsthenumberofmentionsandasampletweetforallpartiesthatwerebeingtested.

7AndranikTumasjan,TimmO.Sprenger,PhilippG.Sandner,IsabellM.Welpe,PredicitingElectionswithTwitter:What140CharactersRevealaboutPoliticalSentiment(TechnischeUniversitätMünchen2010),178.

Party Tweets NumberofTweets ExamplesCDU 30,866 CDUwantsstrictrulesfor

internetCSU 5,748 CSUcontinuesattackson

partnerofchoiceFPD

SPD 27,356 OnlyamatteroftimeuntiltheSPDdissolves

FDP 17,737 WhoeverwantscivilrightsmustchooseFDP!

LINKE 12,689 SocietyforHumansRightsrecommends:NogovernmentparticipationforLINKE

Grüne(GreenParty) 8,250 AfterthecrisisonlyGreencanhelp(link)

Figure1:TweetsbyPartyintheGermanFederalElection

ToseeifTwitterwasareflectionofpoliticalsentimentthisteamanalyzedtweetsfromprofilesofthepoliticians.Figure2showstheprofilesfortheleadingcandidatesofthe5mainparties:AngelaMerkel(CDU),Frank-WalterSteinmeier(SPD),GuidoWesterwell(FDP),JürgenTrittin(Grüne),andOskarLafontaine(Linke).Overall,theemotionsdisplayedthroughthemessagesweremostlypositive.

Figure2:Profilesofleadingcandidates

TounderstandTwitterasapredictorofelectionresultswemustfirstcomparetheshareofattentionthepoliticalpartiesreceiveonlinewiththeelectionresult.Then,wecananalyzewhethertweetscaninformthepublicaboutideologicalties.Figure3showsthenumberoftweetsmentioningaparticularpartyandthecorrespondingelectionresults.Whatwasfoundwasthatthenumberoftweetsandtherankingbyshareofvotesintheelectionarenearlyidentical.Thus,therelativevolumeoftweetsmirrorstheresultsoftheGermanfederalelection.Thedatashowsthatthenumberoftweetsmentioningapoliticalpartyisanaccuratereflectionofthevoteshareandtheplatform’spredictivepowercomesclosetotraditionalpolling.

Party AllMentions Election

NumberofTweets

ShareofTwittertraffic

ElectionResult

Predictionerror

CDU 30,886 30.1% 29.0% 1.0%

CSU 5,748 5.6% 6.9% 1.3%

SPD 27,356 26.6% 24.5% 2.2%

FDP 17,737 17.3% 15.5% 1.7%

LINKE 12,689 12.4% 12.7% 0.3%

Grüne 8,250 8.0% 11.4% 3.3%

Figure3:Shareoftweetsandelectionresults

The2012U.S.PresidentialElectionIn2013,MaggieDalton-HoffmanstudiedhowtheObamacampaignandtheRomneycampaignusedsocialmediatoattractvoters.Dalton-Hoffmanlookedathowmucheachcampaignspentoncost-per-clickadvertising,howmanytweets/socialmediapostseachcampaignsentoutperday,andhowmanyfollowerseachcandidatehad.

The2012U.S.presidentialelectionbetweenincumbentPresidentBarackObamaandformerGovernorMittRomneyallowedtheAmericanpeopletobecomefamiliarwiththecandidates.ByutilizingsocialmediaplatformsboththeObamacampaignandtheRomneycampaignexpandedpoliticalmembershiptotheonlinemasses,givingsocialmediauserstheopportunitytoexpresstheirideologies,partyaffiliation,andultimatelyconnectwiththecandidates.8Bybeingabletolike,retweet,comment,andclickonposts,socialnetworkersweregivendifferentmethodsofindividuallyhelpingtocampaignforeitherObamaorRomney.9

8MaggieDaltonHoffman.TheEffectofSocialMediaonthe2012U.SPresidentialElection.(TrinityCollegeDigitalRepository2013),3.9Ibid.

Dalton-HoffmanfoundthattheObamacampaigncameoutastheclear

winnerofthesocialmediabattle.Bymakingiteasytoshareandlikeposts,theObamacampaigncreatedaseamlessformofparticipatorycitizenship.Figure4showsthenumberoffollowerseachofthecandidateshadasofOctober25th,2012,aweekpriortotheelection.OfthepeoplewhocompletedanexitpollaftervotingonNovember6th,2012,69%reportedusingsocialmediatohavesomethingrelatedtothe2012presidentialcampaign.10Oneofthebiggestfindingsofherstudywasthattherewasadifferencebetweenthevotingtendenciesofconservativeswhousesocialmediaandliberalswhousesocialmedia.79%ofliberalsreportedusingsocialmediawhileonly60%ofconservativesreportedusingsocialmedia.11ThehigherpercentageofDemocratsonsocialmediasitesmeansthatundecidedvoterswouldbeexposedtoahigherconcentrationofliberallyalignedpostscomparedtoconservativeones.12

Figure4:TheNumberoffollowerseachcandidatehadonTwitter,Facebook,Pinterest,andYouTubeasofOctober25th,2012

Dalton-HoffmanfoundthatnotonlydidObamaleadinthenumberoffollowersonTwitter,Facebook,PinterestandYouTube,buthiscampaignalsoputoutmoreinformationcomparedtohisopponent.Figure5showsthedigitalactivityofbothcandidates.ObamaledMittRomneyineverycategoryexceptforFacebook.FromJune4th–June17th,2012theObamacampaignpublishedatotalof614postsonsocialmediasites,comparedto148fromRomney.13

ThesocialmediaconversationpostedaboutthecandidatesfavoredObama

overRomney.AstudyconductedbythePewResearchCenterlookedattheattitudesintweetsonObamaandRomney.Therewere11,179,535tweetspostedaboutPresidentObama,whiletherewas7,740,922tweetspostedaboutRomneypostedbetweenAugust27th–September23rd,2012.14OnTwitter,17%ofthetweetsabout

10Ibid.11Ibid.12Ibid.13Ibid.14Ibid.

Romneywerepositiveand59%werenegative.15Ontheotherhand,tweetsaboutObamawere25%positiveand44%negative.16

Figure5:NumberofaldigitalpostsstudiedfromJune4th-17th,2012

Dalton-HoffmancomestotheconclusionthattheObamacampaign’sbetter

utilizationofsocialmediaspreadthewordofObama’smessageandhelpedhimconnecttotheonlinecommunity.ConnectingwiththoseonlineandgivingthemgreatcontenttoshareObama’ssocialmediacanattributepoststohelpinghimwinthe2012U.S.presidentialelection

The2014IndianLokSabhaElectionLikethepreviouscasestudies,analysisonthe2014IndianLokSabhaelectionfocusesonhowcandidatesusedmicrobloggingsiteslikeTwittertospreadpoliticalawareness.KokilJaidkafromtheWeeKimWeeSchoolofCommunicationsandInformationattheNanyangUniversityinSingaporeandSaifuddinAhmedfromtheDepartmentofCommunicationsattheUniversityofCalifornia,DavisintheUnitedStateslookedat98,396tweetspostedbytheofficialTwitteraccountsofthetoptenpoliticalpartiesduringatwomonthperiodpriortotheelectionandconductedananalysistoidentifytheoveralltrendinusage,theinteractivecharacteristicsoftweetsandthefunctionsdrivingtheTwitterusageofpoliticalparties.TheybelievethatonlinenetworkingsiteslikeTwittercomplementofflineinteractionsandrelationships.TheirfindingsfoundthatthemoresuccessfulpartiesusedTwittertopublishtimelyupdatesononlineandofflinecampaignactivities.

15Ibid.16Ibid.

0

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350

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Facebook Twitter YouTube Blog

Obama

Romney

Theirstudysoughttoanswerthefollowingquestions:

• ResearchQuestion1:WhichpoliticalpartiesinIndiaactivelyusedTwitteraspartoftheircampaign?

• ResearchQuestion2:WhichpoliticalpartieswereusingTwitterforconnectingandinteractingwithothers?

• ResearchQuestion3:Whomwerepoliticalpartiesinteractingwith?• ResearchQuestion4:Whatwastheinformationfunctionofthetweetsposted

bythesepoliticalparties?•

Thedatacollectedforthisstudywasfoundfromtweetspostedonthe10mostpopularofficialpoliticalpartyTwitteraccounts:theBharatiyaJanataparty(BJP),IndianNationalCongress(INC),AllIndiaAnnaDravidaMunnetraKazhagam(ADMK),AllIndiaTrinamoolCongress(AITC),BijuJanataDal(BJD),ShivSena(SHS),TeluguDesamParty(TDP),TelanganaRashtra(TRS),CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist)(CPI(M)),andYSR-CPCongressParty(YSR-CP).TweetswerecollectedfrommidnightMarch7th,whenthevotingscheduleforthe2014GeneralElectionswereannounced,untilmidnightMay12th2014,thelastdayofGeneralElections.17Party Followers TweetsBJP 857,102 80,981AAP 893,185 7,980AITC 6,676 3,990INC 233,467 2,890ADMK 3,670 601TDP 5,316 449CPI(M) 5,081 402YSR-CP 10,995 700Figure6:CharacteristicsofpoliticalpartyaccountsinIndia

ThedatasetinFigure6answersJaidkaandAhmed’sfirstresearchquestionofwhichpoliticalpartiesactivelyusedTwitterduringthe2014election.TheBJPandtheAAPhadthemostfollowersbuttheBJPoutnumberedtheAAPinthenumberoftweetsposted.TheBJP,AAPandYSR-CPprimarilyusedTwitterforre-tweetinginformationorinformationperpetuation.18Toanswertheirsecondresearchquestion,JaidkaandAhmedanalyzedeachparty’stweetsanddividedthemintofivecharacteristics:normal,replies,mentionofpartyleaderandretweets.Afterlookingatthetweetssentbyeachparty,BJP,AAPandYSR-CPusedTwitterasatoolforretweetinginformation.YSR-CPusedTwittertointeractwithvotersandto17KokilJaidkaandSaifuddinAhmed.The2014IndianGeneralElectiononTwitter:AnAnalysisonChangingPoliticalTraditions.(7thInternationalConferenceonInformationandCommunicationTechnologiesandDevelopment2015),2.18Ibid.

communicateandreplytotheirfollowers.Tofindoutwhomthepartieswereinteractingwith,theresearcherslookedattheusersmentionedintweetsandorganizedthemaccordingtotheiroccupation.AAPinteractedthemostwiththegeneralpublic,followedbyBJP.19Thepurposeofthefourthresearchquestionwastofocusonnormalpoststoidentifythecharacteristicsofparties’Twitterusage.AITChadthehighestnumberofcampaignupdatetweetsandAAPtookfirstplaceinself-promotiontweets20.InformationcommunicationtechnologyinIndiawasanimportanttoolincreatingstrategiesforeachpartyforthe2014election.Twitterwasusedtopostcampaignupdates,promotepartyachievementsandconnectwiththeonlinecommunityofyoung,first-timevoters.Promotion(%)

BJP AAP AITC INC YSR-CP Total

Normal 909611.23%

109813.75%

355389.04%

104736.22%

20429.14%

14998

Replies 65818.12%

162020.30%

1533.83%

1766.08%

14320.42%

8673

MentionofPartyLeaders

1391717.18%

4165.21%

1644.11%

86930.06%

578.14%

15423

Retweet 5138763.45%

484660.72%

1203.01%

79827.61%

29642.28%

57447

Total 80981 7980 3990 2890 700 96541Figure7:Tweetcharacteristicsfortopfiveactiveparties

MethodologyInthepreviouscasestudiesofinternationalelections,mostofthestudieslookedathowthecampaignsandpoliticiansusedsocialmediaandiftheirusagehasanimpactontheelectionresults.Toanswerthequestion“Doessocialmediausereflectpoliticalpreferencesinvoting?”IwillbeanalyzingwhatpeopleinGermany,theUnitedStates,andIndiatweetedaboutspecificcandidatesandpoliticalpartiesbysearchingfortweetswiththecandidatesname,politicalparty,oranyrelevanthashtagstotheelection.IhypothesizethatpeopleuseTwitterasaplacetoexpresstheirpoliticalopinionsandtheplatformactsasadatacollectorofthoseopinionstoinfluencevoterswhomaybeundecidedintheelection.Ialsohypothesizethattheonlinepoliticallandscapedoesinfactreflecttheofflinevotinghabitsofconstituents. Iwillbeperformingquantitativeanalysisonmyresearch.Myquantitativeresearchwillbelookingatananalysisofdataontweetsthatincludedthefollowinghashtagsandmentions:CDU,SPD,FDP,AngelaMerkel,Frank–WalterSteinmeier,GuidoWesterwelle,#Election2012,#TeamObama,#TeamRomney,BarackObama,Obama,MittRomney,Romney,BJP,INC,AIADMK,NarendaModi,SoniaGandhi,andJ.Jayalalithaa.Thehashtagsandmentionswillbemyindependentvariablewhilethe19Ibid.20Ibid.

outcomeoftheelectionswillbemydependentvariable.Iwillalsocomparethenumberoftweetsmentioningthepreviouslystatedcandidatesandpartieswithopinionpollsranintheweeksleadinguptotheelection.

AnalysisofData

The2009GermanFederalElectionThe2009GermanFederalelectiontookplaceonSeptember27th,2009toelectthemembersofthefederalparliamentofGermany.BetweenAugust13thandSeptember19th,2009therewere~104,003tweetsintotalwerepublishedonTwitter.21Astheelectiondrewcloser,trafficmentioningeachcandidateandpoliticalpartyincreased.AftercomparingtheamountofattentionthetopsixpoliticalpartiesreceivedonTwitterandthesentimentofthetweets,theResearchersattheUniversityofMunichfoundthatthevolumeoftweetsdoesinfactmirrortheresultsoftheelection.Party NumberofMentionsCDU 30,886CSU 5,748SPD 27,356FDP 17,737LINKE 12,689Grüne(GreenParty) 8,250Total 102,666Figure8AggregateCountsofPartyMentionsinthe2009GermanFederalElectionfromAugust13th-September19th,2009

Duringthesametimeframe(August13th-September19th,2009),variousGermaninstitutes,conductedtraditionalopinionpolls.Eachweektheaskedtheexactquestion,“IfthefederalelectionsweretohappennextSundaywhatpartywouldyouvotefor?”FromtheweekofAugust24thupuntilSeptember18th,2009theCDUandit’ssisterparty,theCSUledtheweeklypolling.Thehighestpercentageofthevotethattheyreceivedonaweeklybasiswasbetween34%-37%.22FollowingtheCDU/CSUwastheSPDpartywith22.5%-26%ofthepopularvote,FDPwith12.5%-15%ofthevote,theGreenPartywith10%-13.5%ofthevote,andtheLeftwith9-12%ofthepopularvote.23 Throughoutthemonthpriortotheelection,theCDUleditscompetitorsinthetraditionalopinionpollsaswellastheamountofsocialmentionsmentioning21AndranikTumasjan,TimmO.Sprenger,PhilippG.Sandner,IsabellM.Welpe,PredicitingElectionswithTwitter:What140CharactersRevealaboutPoliticalSentiment(TechnischeUniversitätMünchen2010),181.222009GermanFederalElectionPublicPollOpinionResultsfromAugust13th-September18th,200923Ibid.

eithertheirpartyortheircandidate.TheCDU/CSUandFDPhadanaveragevoteshareofaround50%inpre-electionpollingduringtheweeksbeforetheelection.24Upuntilthefederalelection,theamountofmentionsapartyreceivedduringthiselectionmirroredtheresultsoftheopinionpolls.Institute Date CDU/CSU SPD Greens FDP The

LeftOthers

ForschungsgruppeWahlen

18-Sept

36% 25% 10% 13% 11% 5%

Forsa 16-Sept

37% 24% 11% 12% 10% 6%

Allensbach 16-Sept

36% 22.5% 12% 12.5% 12% 6%

ForschungsgruppeWahlen

11-Sept

36% 23% 11% 14% 11% 5%

Infratestdimap 10-Sept

35% 23% 12% 14% 12% 4%

Allensbach 9-Sept

35% 22.5% 13% 13% 11.5% 5%

ForschungsgruppeWahlen

4-Sept

37% 23% 11% 15% 10% 4%

Emnid 3-Sept

34% 26% 11% 14% 11% 4%

INFOGmbH 2-Sept

35% 23% 12% 14% 11% 4%

Allensbach 1-Sept

35.5% 23% 13.5% 14% 9.5% 4.5%

GMS 24-Aug

37% 23% 13% 13% 9% 5%

Figure9:WeeklyPre-electionPollingduringtheWeeksBeforetheElection

TheChristianDemocraticUnion(CDU),theChristianSocialUnionofBavaria

(CSU),andtheFreeDemocraticParty(FDP)wonenoughofthevotestocreateacenter-rightgovernmentwithAngelaMerkelcontinuingherroleasChancellorandGuidoWesterwelleastheVice-Chancellor.Insteadofcominginat4thplace,theSDPwhichreceivedafairamountofmentionsonsocialmedia,receivedonly23%ofthetotalpartyvoteandsufferedthebiggestpercentagelossofanypartyinfederalelectionhistory.25OtherthantheelectionresultsoftheSDP,throughoutthemonthleadinguptothefederalelection,socialmediamentionsofpoliticalcandidatesand

24"OpinionPollTrackerBundestagswahl2009Germany'sFederalElection".AlexejBehnisch.17July2009.Retrieved21July2009.25ANewBuzzforGermany(TheEconomist2009),1.http://www.economist.com/node/14530467

partiesmimickedtheelectionresults,solidifyingmyhypothesisthatinthecaseofthe2009Germanfederalelections,socialmediachatterdoesinfacthaveanimpactonelectionresults.

Party Allmentions Election Number

oftweetsShareofTwittertraffic

Electionresult

Predictionerror

CDU 30,886 30.1% 29.0% 1.o%CSU 5,748 5.6% 6.9% 1.3%SPD 27,356 26.6% 24.5% 2.2%FDP 17,737 17.3% 15.5% 1.7%LINKE 12,689 12.4% 12.7% 0.3%Grüne 8,250 8.0% 11.4% 3.3%Figure10:Shareoftweetsandelectionresultsfromthe2009GermanFederalElection

The2012U.S.PresidentialElectionPresidentBarackObamasetthebaronhowtoutilizedigitalmediaplatformsinhiscommunicationsstrategyinhis2008U.S.presidentialelection.ItwasthefirsttimeacandidatehadmobilizedtheyouthvotebyreachingouttothemonsitessuchasFacebook,Twitter,andYouTube.Fouryearslater,boththeObamacampaignandtheRomneycampaignunderstoodthebenefitsofhavinganonlinepresenceandhowthatcouldtranslatecomeElectionDay.

The2012U.S.PresidentialElectionwasinpartwonbydigitalactivity.TheObamacampaignusedsocialmediatoskiptheformalitiesoftraditionalmediaandtooktotheInternettotalkdirectlytothevoters.APewResearchCenterstudymeasuredhowmanytweetsandpostsweremadeabouteachcandidateduringtheRepublicanNationalConventionandtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Thisstudyalsotookintoaccountwhetherthepostwaspositiveornegativeaboutthecandidate.Therewere11,179,537tweetsand442,524FacebookpostsaboutPresidentObama,whiletherewere740,992tweetsand249,567FacebookpostsaboutRomneybetweenAugust22nd-Sepetmeber23rd,2012.26

Unlikethe2009GermanFederalElection,mostoftheonlinenarrativeforbothPresidentObamaandFormerGovernorRomneywererelentlesslynegative.Butlookingateachplatformyouseethatoneaudiencetendstofavoronecandidateovertheother.OnTwitter,theconversationaboutthecampaignwasconsistentlyharsherforRomneyoverObama.27OnTwitter,17%ofthetweetsaboutRomney

26MaggieDaltonHoffman.TheEffectofSocialMediaonthe2012U.SPresidentialElection.(TrinityCollegeDigitalRepository2013),4.27PewResearchCenter:Journalism&MediaStaff.WinningtheMediaCampaign2012.(PewResearchCenter,2012),1.

werepositiveand59%werenegative.28TweetsaboutObamawere25%positiveand44%negative29.OnFacebook,thetoneofpoststhatmentionObama’snameimprovedaftertheseconddebate.Whiletraditionalmediawasnegativeitwasstilllessharshthanwhatwasbeingsaidbyvotersonsocialmedia.

Figure11:TwitterSentimentforTweetsaboutMittRomney

BycrawlingTwitterwiththeTwitterAPIresearcherswereabletogatheralargedatasetof196,000tweetsthatweresentwiththecandidatenames,candidateaddresses,electionrelatedhashtagsandcandidateshashtags.Emoticonsthatwereusedwerereplacedwithposemoforpositiveemoticonsandnegemofornegativeemoticons.Overaperiodof6weeksresearcherslookedatthesentimentanalysisoftweetssentthatmentionedcandidatesBarackObamaandMittRomney.IngeneralObamahadabetterpublicopinionthanRomney.Thepresidenthadonlypositiveratios,whilehismajoropponenthadnegativeones.

OnElectionDay2012,Twitteruserssentout31.7millionelection-basedtweetsand327,452tweetsperminute.BeforeObamawasannouncedvictoriousresearchersMarkGraham,AdhamTamer,NingWnagandScottHaleanalyzed30milliongeocodedtweetssentbetweenOctober1st–November1st,2012thatmentionObamaandRomneytodetermineifsocialmediachattercanpredictwhowillwintheelection.Therewereatotalof132,771tweetsmentioningObamaand

28MaggieDaltonHoffman.TheEffectofSocialMediaonthe2012U.SPresidentialElection.(TrinityCollegeDigitalRepository2013),4.29Ibid.

120,637mentioningRomney.Lookingattheinteractivemaptheycreated,theresearcherspredictedthatObamawouldwintheelectionbyasmallmargin. VariousnationwideopinionpollswereconductedfromOctober4th–November4th,2012askingthegeneralpublicwhotheywouldbevotingforinthegeneralelection.ThefirstweekinourdatasethadMittRomneyleadingBarackObamainfivedifferentopinionpolls.49%ofrespondentswouldvoteforRomneycomparedto47%whowantedtovoteforObama.ManyattributethiswintoRomney’sexceptionalperformanceinthesecondpresidentialdebate.Likemostofthiselectioneachoftheweek’sresultswereveryclose.Onecandidatewouldonlyleadtheotherbynomorethan7points.Outofthe57opinionpollsconductedduringthatmonthperiod,Obamawasfavoredin43ofthe57opinionpolls.EarlyoninthemonthMittRomneyseemedtobethefavoritebutObamastartedtoseemorefavorabilityaroundmid-October.

The2014IndianGeneralElectionWith813millionregisteredvoters,outofwhich100millionwerefirsttimevoters,Indiaisthelargestdemocracyintheworld30.Thiselectionspannedsix-weeksandsawmorethan56millionelection-relatedtweetsfromJanuary1sttoMay12th,2014.31Twitterbecametheplatformofchoiceforpeopletoengageandconsumepoliticalnews. FromSeptember25th,2013toMay16th,201418,214,947millionelection-basedtweetsweresentthatincludedkeywordsfrommanyimportanteventssurroundthegeneralelection.Keywordsincludedcandidatesnames,theirparty,cities,andtrendinghashtagssuchas#WeLoveRahul.AstheelectiongotcloserinMarchandApril2014thenumberoftweetsperweekgrewto36,000tweets.TwittercreatedaheatmapthatshowshowIndiancitizenstweetedabouttheelection.Eachcolorreferstothementionofoneofthetopcandidates:ArvindKejriwal(green),RahulGandhi(blue),andNarendraModi(orange).32Thetopfiveelectiontermswere:NarendraModiwith722,091tweets,AAPwith118,717tweets,BJPwith322,596tweets,RahulGandhiwith47,054tweetsandVaranasiwith21,018tweets.33 WhileNarendraModifromtheBJPledthewayinsocialmediamentionsandfollowersthroughoutthecampaign,intheopinionpollsleadinguptotheelectiontheNationalDemocraticAlliance(NDA)partywasthefrontrunnertowinamajorityofseatsintheLokSabha.Outofthe543seatsintheLokSabha,theNDA

30AbhishekBhola.TwitterandPolls:AnalyzingandEstimatingPoliticalOrientationofTwitterUsersinIndiaGeneral#Elections2014.(IndraprasthaInstituteofInformationTechnologyNewDehli,2014),431RaheelKhursheed.India’s2014#TwitterElection(Twitter.comblog,2014),1.32Here’stheWinnerof#IndianElectionsonTwitter.(Quartz,2014),1.33TwitterReleasesDataAroundIndianElections–58MillionTweets&11MillionMentionsforModi.(Socialsamosa.com,2014),1.

won336ofthoseseatswhiletheBJPwon282oftheseats.WehaveseenhowacandidatewhoismentionedmostonTwittertypicallyendsupwinningtheelection,whileModididbecomePrimeMinisterofIndia,hispartydidnotreceivethemajorityoftheseats.Whilesocialmediawasusedbycandidatesandvotersalikeinthiselection,onlyasmallportionofIndia’s1.2billionpopulationhaveaccesstotheinternet.Whenaskedaboutwhattheyshareontheirsocialmediasites,onlyathirdofIndianssaidtheysharetheirviewsaboutpoliticsonsocialmedia.34

Figure12:HeatMapShowingtheConversationoftheIndianGeneralElection

34JacobBoushter.InIndia,fewusesocialmediatosharepoliticalviews.(PewResearchCenter,2014),1.

Figure13:ChartofHowIndiansUseSocialMediaviathePewResearchCenter

ConclusionE-democracyisexpectedtoimpactgovernmentintwoways–byempoweringindividualstoengageinthepolicymakingprocess,andbyempoweringgroupsandnetworksofpeopletomobilizethem,affectpoliticalprocessesandpressurepoliticalrepresentativesintoadheringtotheirresponsibilities.35Bylookingatthreedifferentinternationalelectionsfromthebeginningofsocialmediatotoday,wecanseehowsocialmediahaschangedfrombeingaplatformwhereyoukeepupwithfriendstosourcesofnews,information,andcommunication.Notonlyhassocialmediachangedthepoliticallandscape,but,asamicrobloggingsiteitgivesmorecitizenstheopportunitytoexpresstheirpoliticalviews,engageindebate,andinteractwithcandidates. Forthemostpartwhatissaidonsocialmediacanpredicttheoutcomeofelections.Isaythiswithonecaveat,socialmediacanpredicttheresultofanelectionwhenamajorityofthepopulationhasaccesstotheInternetandusessocialmediasitesasnewssites.Byusingsocialmediatopredictwhowillwinelections,candidatesandpoliticalpartiescanmonitortheirmentionsandwhatpeoplearesayingaboutthemtocreateeffectiveplatforms.

35KokilJaidkaandSaifuddinAhmed.The2014IndianGeneralElectiononTwitter:AnAnalysisonChangingPoliticalTraditions.(7thInternationalConferenceonInformationandCommunicationTechnologiesandDevelopment2015),2.

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