DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting: Perspectives, Challenges, and Opportunities --2 nd International...
-
Upload
april-oconnor -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting: Perspectives, Challenges, and Opportunities --2 nd International...
DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:Perspectives, Challenges, and
Opportunities --2nd International Conference on Volcano and
Ash Forecasting
DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:Perspectives, Challenges, and
Opportunities --2nd International Conference on Volcano and
Ash Forecasting
Mr. Alan R. ShafferJune 21, 2004
Director, Plans & Programs OfficeDefense Research and Engineering
2
Operational Support System
• Air Force Weather Agency serves as DoD focal point for global volcanic ash cloud forecasts; 24/7 global coverage– Text Bulletins– Satellite Analysis – Graphical Forecast Products
• Takes Advantage of Advanced MetSat Applications at Air Force Weather Agency– Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Data Process and Handling Center
• Forecast based on ”PUFF” Model – PUFF is Advective Model using Point Source and Gridded Wind Fields– Military Model can be run with higher resolution (45km grid vice 191-km)
• Navy Centers also issue tailored ash forecasts; e.g. NEMOC issues routine Mt. Etna forecasts for Sigoniela, Italy
• Ash Forecast Driver Different for DoD compared to Commercial– Mission vice Economic Drivers
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
3
Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
• AFWA Issues Graphic AFWA Issues Graphic Problems as Required—Problems as Required—example at right is the forecast example at right is the forecast for Tungurahua in Ecuador for Tungurahua in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)(June 17, 2004)• Includes flight level, ash Includes flight level, ash densitydensity• Products updated daily—or Products updated daily—or more often if serious event more often if serious event occursoccurs• Also issue an animation Also issue an animation product for forecast evolution product for forecast evolution over timeover time
4For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
• Expansion of panels for Expansion of panels for Tunguruhura, in Ecuador Tunguruhura, in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)(June 17, 2004)• Panel shows +3, +6 hour Panel shows +3, +6 hour forecast over a altitude forecast over a altitude widthwidth• For specialized missions, For specialized missions, it is possible to provide high it is possible to provide high resolution tailored forecasts resolution tailored forecasts
18 June 0300Z18 June 0300Z 18 June 0600Z18 June 0600Z
Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--
5
• Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD)(VAFTAD)• Investigating the ingestion of deep Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS modellayer Navy NOGAPS model• VAFTAD is advection / diffusion VAFTAD is advection / diffusion modelmodel
• 191 Km AVN fields191 Km AVN fields• Navy developing 45 km Navy developing 45 km version using NOGAPS Sky-version using NOGAPS Sky-high modelhigh model
National Weather Service Product--VAFTAD--
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
6
Operational DoD Text Bulletincs
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
WEATHER BULLETINS WEATHER BULLETINS FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS 1. EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT 1. EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT
FVAF LFPW BULLETIN—FVAF LFPW BULLETIN— 2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-
08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) 08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN—WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN—
3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: 3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD BULLETIN– BULLETIN–
4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE 4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS ://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ
Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004.Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004.
• Issued by AGFWAIssued by AGFWA
7
Current State of Supporting Research
• Air Force– Air Force Does in-house development of products and graphics by Satellite Applications
Branch– Has supported the development of PUFF, with the University of Alaska Geophysics Institute
• AF Funded efforts included:– Creating the ability to ingest (high resolution) AFWA forecast model fields– Developing graphical user interface
• Further Development not funded
• Navy: Ingestion of NOGAPS Sky Hi (45km) fields into PUFF
• Army: Jointly funded early University Partnering for Operational Support
• Other Applicable Research– Sensing
• DoD spending ~$300M/year in advanced sensors and applicatrions, including advanced IR resolution and uncooled IR focal planes, as well as multispectral and hyperspectral sensors
• DoD again funding (minimally) seismology research– Propulsion: DoD investing ~ $125M / year in Integrated High-Performance Turbine Engine
Research; including advanced componsites and metals
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
8
PUFF Characteristics
• PUFF is used by Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, Air Fore Weather Agency and University of Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center
• Deficiencies:– Detection
• Sensing initial ash eruption density • Characterizing ash cloud density and distribution
– Plume Transport• Characterizing upper level variability in wind field• Integrating model with high resolution winds
• Future proposed research includes real time graphical user interface
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
9
Research Opportunities
• Apply other DoD tools to Volcanic Ash model
– High Resolution Terrain Data: Worldwide terrain / topographic data available at 100m post spacing—many areas 3 to 5 meters
– Novel Sensors:• Multi and Hyperspectral, Long Wave IR• DoD experimenting with Hyperspectral high resolution—
– Question: Are there unique spectral characteristics in volcanic ash cloud?
– How does Met Community Leverage other opportunities?• Navy SPY-1 Radar became solid weather radar for Navy Aegis Cruiser
– Use of multiple sensors
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--
• Hyperspectral detection of camouflaged and concealed mobile tactical vehicles
• Algorithm-based detection processing• Detection-cued high resolution imagery
Hyperspectral Sensor•140-300 bands •1m Scale Spatial Res
Real Time Processor•Detects Targets•Cues EO/TIR Imagery
High Spatial ResEO/TIR Camera•NIIRS 7.5/6.5
Airborne Platform
RGB from HS datacube
Cued High-Resolution Image Chip
Target
Target
Target
Actual Image Pending Security Review
Output from SEM detection algorithm
11WaterSurf GrassCompact
SandDry sand
Wet sand
Shrub
Littoral Radiance IICamp Pendleton CA, June 14, 1997
Classification Map Confusion Matrix (SAM)
Algorithm Performance Comparison
100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.6% 0.3%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 99.7%
Ground Truth Testing Regions
Tra
inin
g
Cla
ss
es
Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--
12
Hypersonic Sensors
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
Goes 12Goes 12
13
Research Questions
For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
Goes 12Goes 12
14For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only
• Navy Research Lab is Navy Research Lab is investigating: Improvement in the investigating: Improvement in the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and PUFFPUFF• Investigating the ingestion of deep Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS modellayer Navy NOGAPS model• Again, Looking at higher resolution Again, Looking at higher resolution modelsmodels
Operational Support System--Navy Forecast Philosophy--