Do dreams come true? Aspirations and educational attainments of Ethiopian

boys and girls

Marta Favara and Gina Crivello

Conference on GenderUniversity of East Anglia

July 6th, 2015

Why do people in conditions of poverty under invest?

• Most policy interventions aiming to reduce poverty offer solutions to build up assets and correct market failures relying on the assumptions that:

a) poverty does not alter the way people make decisions; b) people living in poverty have a tighter budget constraint and a subtle

margin of error, increasing the price for errors of judgment (Bertrand, Mullainathan and Shafir 2004).

• However, empirical evidence shows that people often under invest, even in the absence of market failures or even when potential returns are high (Bertrand et al., 2004; Karlan et. al 2013; Bryan et al. 2012, WDR, 2015).

How do people make decisions?

• How do people make decisions? Some insights from behavioural economics:a) Making decisions is a time/energy consuming process: people use

mental shortcuts that ease the cognitive load of making a decision by structuring the understanding of available opportunities, interpreting information and filtering options.

b) Habits matter: when a behaviour is performed many times, future decisions on courses of action are primarily guided by habits, rather than being based on evaluative interpretations.

c) Gender norms and local power structures lead to underinvestment in land fertility (Goldstein and Udry, 2008) and norms about caste behaviour prevent parents enrolling children into newer forms of education despite large returns (Munshi and Rosenzweig, 2006)

• Most economic decisions individuals make are forward-looking and are therefore shaped by the desire or ambition to achieve a goal.

• Do people’s aspirations – mental models about their opportunities and whether and how they can achieve them – limit whether they invest?

Conceptualizing aspirations

From this perspective,• Aspirations are conceptualized as the capacity to visualize the future and

engage in forward-looking behaviour (Locke and Latham, 2002)• They combine the wants and preferences of individuals, information

about the opportunities available, the expectations formed (about the feasibility of those wants and preferences), and the constraints acknowledged by an individual with respect to the future (Bertrand et al., 2008).

• In economic terms, aspirations can be considered as an additional constraint limiting the ‘choice set’ which people consider as relevant and which motivate their actions (Bernard et al. 2014). In other words, how far people aspire depends on their own beliefs about what they can achieve with effort: people would not aspire to an outcome that is perceived as unattainable.

• A weak capacity to aspire might undermine their efforts and translate into low or null investments (Ray, 2006; Duflo, 2012): “..the poor lack the aspirational resources (or capacity) to act and change the conditions of their own poverty” (Appadurai, 2004; Ray, 2006).

Research questions

• How do aspirations and expectations affect boys’ and girls’ educational attainment in Ethiopia?

o The paper investigates the relationship between aspirations and children’s years of schooling, as an indicator of cumulative investments in education.

o It explores gender differences in aspirations (at earlier ages) and later school attainment, taking into account non-educational expectations, parental gender-based preferences and how they vary in a context of extreme poverty.

• Intergenerational transmission of aspirations: to what extent are parental aspirations an important mediating factor for children’s aspirations?

• How do individuals revise their aspirations according to the information they get over time?

Note: The paper itself is a quantitative paper. This presentation is mainly based on quantitative findings but bring insights from qualitative analysis to explore how aspirations correlates to individual decision and investments.

Literature on aspirations and forward-looking behaviours

Little is known about how aspirations and expectations shape forward looking behaviours. Two examples of papers underlining the potential importance of aspirations to escape poverty:

• Seernel and Dercon, 2014: using YL data from India observe a strong relationship between aspirations and schooling. Aspirations tend to have bigger effects for children from the poorest socio-economic backgrounds and lower educated mothers, suggesting possible poverty traps.

• Bernard et al., 2014: screening of documentary about people from similar rural communities who had succeeded in agriculture or small business (Ethiopia). The treatment increased aspirations and evidence of effects on savings and credit behavior, children’s school enrolment and investments in children’s schooling, suggesting that changes in aspirations can translate into changes in forward-looking behavior.

About Young Lives

• An interdisciplinary and mixed-methods study which aims to improve understanding of the causes & consequences of childhood poverty

• Following 12,000 children in 4 countries (Ethiopia, India-Andhra Pradesh/Telangana, Peru, Vietnam) over 15 years

• Pro-poor sample: 20 sites in each country selected to reflect country diversity, rural-urban, livelihoods, ethnicity, etc; roughly equal numbers of boys and girls

• Quantitative analysis: Ethiopian older cohort ; Round 1-4

Longitudinal qualitative research: exploring aspirations

• Following a sub-set of Young Lives children over a seven-year period, using qualitative techniques to generate narratives with children, parents/carers and community members.

• Focus on everyday experiences of poverty: time-use, wellbeing and transitions across childhood – this includes capturing ‘aspirations’.

• We are interested in what aspirations might tell us about:

• Orientations, values of childhood, expectations for girls and boys & timing of transitions – see ‘aspirations’ as part of wider imagined futures and life projects

• What affects aspirations – why individuals’ aspirations change

• Intergenerational perspectives / Intergenerational change and continuity, social change

• Inequalities – differential resources and opportunities

Measuring Aspirations in Young Lives surveyChildren’s aspirations: "Imagine you had no constraints and could study for as long as you liked, or go back to school if you have already left. What level of formal education would you like to complete?”. 1=Aspired to University. 0=Lower aspirations

Children’s expectations: “Given your current situation do you expect you will reach that level of education?"

Parental aspirations: “Ideally what level of formal education would you like {child’s name} to complete". 1=Aspired to University. 0=Lower aspirations

Parental educational expectations: “Do you expect {child’s name} will reach that level of education?”.

Parental no-educational expectations: about childbearing and marriage, financial independency and labour market

R1 R2 R3 R42002 2006 2009 2013

Age 8 Age 12 Age 15 Age 19Child's educational aspirations x x xChild's educational expectations x x xParental educational aspirations x xParental educational expectations x xParental no-education related expectations x

School enrolment and educational attainments

Female Std.Dev Male Std.Dev p-value ObsAge 8Enrol 0.68 0.021 0.63 0.021 * 999Yrs school completed 0.46 0.033 0.49 0.036 1000Age 12Enrol 0.96 0.009 0.94 0.011 * 979Yrs school completed 3.24 0.074 3.15 0.094 979Age 15Enrol 0.91 0.013 0.88 0.015 * 972Yrs school completed 5.69 0.090 5.31 0.100 ** 974Math score 17.29 0.697 21.99 0.804 *** 931Age 19Enrol 0.62 0.024 0.54 0.023 * 907Yrs school completed 8.58 0.141 7.78 0.136 *** 908

• Late-age enrolment is quite common

• On average at age 19 they completed about 8 years of education.

•  Girls start school earlier and drop out later than boys 

• The higher enrolment rate among girls can be explained by the division of labour : girls do primarily domestic works within the household and boys tend to work predominantly outside the household in herding or farming activities.

Aspirations

Girls Std.Dev Boys Std.Dev p-values p-values Obs

Age 12 0.67 0.022 0.73 0.02 0.029 ** 934

Age15 0.69 0.021 0.79 0.018 0.001 *** 963

Age 19 0.75 0.021 0.72 0.02 0.298 896

Age 12 0.73 0.021 0.76 0.019 0.249 962

Age15 0.75 0.02 0.82 0.017 0.006 *** 958

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• On average, boys have higher aspirations than girls at age 12 and 15 only.

• By age 19, girls catch up with boys (more girls than boys are still enrolled at school)

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• Aspirations are positively correlated with wealth

• The gender gap in terms of aspirations is the highest among the poorest households

How do aspirations evolve over time?

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• In a seven year window (age 12-19), aspirations change significantly.• People revise aspirations upward but only by a few years of schooling, mostly

from secondary and pre-university study to university degree.• Boys’ aspirations decrease over time while girls’ aspirations increase,

particularly after age 15.

‘TUFA’ - his changing aspirations, changing family circumstances

He left school in Grade 2 to seek paid work following his father’s imprisonment having been accused of stealing from the private farm he was paid to guard:

‘Following his imprisonment, I was forced to substitute for him and run the family. As I am the only boy in the family and my family is poor, I was forced to drop out of school and engage in paid work to sustain the life of my family. I was hired to herd cattle for one of the households in the community, in order to feed my family.’ (Age 16)

Age 16, he was still in Grade 2, while his younger sister attended Grade 5. Another reason for this grade difference is because Tufa enrolled late in school, because his parents needed his assistance in herding, farming, and PSNP (public safety net program) works. Once having finally enrolled in school, Tufa had to leave his school twice because of his father’s imprisonment – something which made him unhappy because he fell ‘behind his friends’.

Age 19, Tufa regrets having dropped out of school but he feels he cannot return since he would be among small children in Grade 2. He hopes to work on irrigation works, start his own vegetable business and his uncle serves as his role model.

‘HAYMANOT’ (girl) - her changing aspirations, food insecurity, mother’s illness

Age 12, Haymanot had recently returned to live with her mother in the village, having lived in town with her aunt where she attended school. Her mother was ill and she needed Haymanot to look after her. Her father had ‘run away’. She has an elder sister and younger brother living at home. She and her sister worked in safety net program.

By age 14 she had left school Grade 5 in order to work in a new stone-crushing factory in the community; her mother’s health remained poor and they experienced food insecurity. ‘My aim is to finish school and get a good job so that I can help my family.’

Age 15, she got married. Her family was very poor, so her in-laws did not require dowry (which was customary). Haymanot said: ‘I am happy about my marriage because it was arranged by my parents and I stopped doing paid work since marriage.’ She describes the marriage as if it were her decision. Hopes to return to school with her husband’s support.

By age 18, Haymanot was divorced and living back with her mother, along with her baby daughter. She said that it was her mother who had insisted on marriage, and her mother agrees. No longer sees returning to school as an option.

Haymanot: I want to work hard, improve my life, and help my mother. Then, I will choose a man myself to get married.

Her mother says: ‘When Haymanot regrets about dropping out of school, I tell her that her baby may compensate her. You know, she is not happy with her life now; she is disappointed when she sees her friends who have continued their education. She also worries about me because she is now helpless depending on me.’

Changing generational relationships‘[B]ecause of education, my grandaughter knows a lot. In the past it was our parents who were making decisions for us. Now, we may advise them, but they decide on what is important for them.’ (Grandmother, rural site)

‘I got married at her age, 14. It was common to take the bride without thinking wisely…… When I tell my 14 year-old granddaughter to marry, she gets angry and threatens to report to the authorities. Children of the day are very wise.’ (Grandmother, rural site)

‘In our time, we were punished and strictly controlled by our parents. Now, parents don’t have much control over their children.’ (Father, rural site)

‘In the past, children strictly obeyed their parents. But these days, children can also do whatever they want…they have relative freedom to decide on their own issues … If parents try to control them, they may leave the family forever and go somewhere without the parental approval.’ (Mother, rural site)

‘Children in our time were innocent, obedient…. punished if they make mistakes… These days, children refuse to do things beyond their capacity… they know what is good or bad for them…’ (Mother, rural site)

Wanting better (different) lives, compared to parents

‘My family depends on agriculture. The harvest is sometimes good; at other times, poor… My father works day and night because he is a farmer. He loses a lot of energy and may die soon… But I want to finish my education and sit in an office with a monthly salary… I will live longer than my father…’ (Kasseye, rural, boy, aged 15)

Parental aspirations

• Better performance in Math test• Educational expectations: being able to go to

university• Expectations:

• financial support their households, getting married/leaving the hh later rather than sooner

• Socio economic status (Higher parental education; Living in urban areas; Less vulnerable to shocks)

• Lower for their daughters

Parental aspirations (at age 12):Child going to university+

-

Children’s roles within families are often defined by interdependence and reciprocity. Parents’ aspirations reflect this:

‘If I help my daughter to finish university, she will support me financially.’ (Mother of girl aged 15, Ethiopia)

Intergenerational transmission of aspirations (1)

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Parent aspirations

Math score

Hours studying

Agency Index

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-.1 0 .1 .2 .3Marginal effect

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

Note: pooling R2-R4 obs. Probit estimation with cluster-individual robust standard errors. Model 1: parental aspirations;Model 2: add Math test, studying hours, agency index; Model 3: Full set of controls.

Aspiring to University

Children’s aspirations

• Children’s and parents’ aspirations are positively correlated• Children who perform better in the Math test, spend more time at school and

studying, and with more confidence on their capacity to affect the future have higher aspirations.

• Once controlling for these three variables the correlation between parental and children’s aspirations diminishes.

• On average, girls have slightly lower aspirations than boys

Intergenerational transmission of aspirations (2)

(1) (2)Parental aspirations 0.133*** 0.189***

(0.026) (0.017)Female -0.104*** -0.003

(0.030) (0.018)Wealth Index (bottom) -0.017 0.038

(0.020) (0.028)Parental aspirations* Female 0.104***

(0.036)Wealth Index (bottom) *Female -0.104***

(0.037)Math test score 0.002*** 0.002***

(0.000) (0.000)Total hours spent studying 0.030*** 0.030***

(0.003) (0.003)Agency Index 0.056*** 0.058***

(0.017) (0.017)Observations 2385 2385R-squared 0.167 0.167

Note: pooling data from R2, R3 and R4; the following variables have been carried forward from R3 to R4: parental aspirations. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001; probit estimation with cluter-individual robust standard errors; marginal effect reported. Interactions term and the full set of control.

• Do parental aspirations matter differently for boys’ and girls' aspirations? The correlation between parental aspirations and children’s aspirations is stronger for girls than for boys

• Is living in poverty equally detrimental for boys’ and girls’ aspirations? Harsh economic conditions are more detrimental for the capacity to aspire for girls than for boys.

Do aspirations matter for schooling decisions? (1)• Parental aspirations are strongly correlated with schooling achievements. • Nevertheless when controlling for children’s aspirations, most of the influence of

parents’ aspirations on schooling achievements goes through children’s aspirations.

• At all ages children who perform well in the Math test and who spend more time studying achieve better results at school.

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0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Estimated Coefficients

Age 12 Age 15 Age 19

Note: Dynamic OLS (DOLS) VAM including all contemporeneous controls.OLS estimation with cluster-individual robust standard errors

Dynamic OLS (DOLS) VAM

Maximum grade achieved

Do aspirations matter for schooling decisions? (2)

Age 12 Age 15 Age 19 Age 12 Age 15 Age 19(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

P_aspirations 0.072 0.272 -0.088 -0.064 0.073 0.190(0.155) (0.187) (0.309) (0.113) (0.134) (0.216)

C_aspirations 0.110 0.333** 0.678* 0.213 0.565* 1.020*(0.104) (0.131) (0.212) (0.148) (0.180) (0.293)

Female 0.367* 0.618* 0.544 0.284* 0.643* 1.512*(0.194) (0.217) (0.367) (0.168) (0.200) (0.341)

Poor -0.360* -0.332** -0.471** -0.361* -0.350* -0.432*(0.120) (0.135) (0.233) (0.120) (0.135) (0.233)

P_aspirations*female -0.279 -0.433* 0.548(0.219) (0.249) (0.407)

C_aspirations*female -0.191 -0.494** -0.681*(0.199) (0.236) (0.388)

N 782 751 552 782 751 552R-sqr 0.36 0.37 0.46 0.36 0.37 0.46

Parental preferences Children's preferences

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001; OLS regression model with cluster-individual robust standard errors. Model 1-3 includes an interactions for gender and parental aspirations; Model 4-6 include an interactions for children's aspirations and gender. All models includes a set of lagged aspirations, lagged controls at individual and hh level, the math score, agency index and the hours spent studying. The model for age 12 includes all lagged variables with the expections of children's aspirations, the vector of channels and the pride index that are not available at round 1 and threfore are measured at round 2

• At age 15 boys whose parents aspiring for them to go to university have completed a higher number of school years than comparable girls.  

• Similarly, at both ages 15 and 19 boys aspiring to university achieve a higher grade than comparable girls.

• Notably, age 15 is a critical age particularly for boys that face a higher risk to drop out of school.

Summarizing survey results

• Parental aspirations are important for schooling achievements to the extent that parents are able to empower their children and enhance their own aspirations, freeing their time studying and achieving better results.

• Parents have higher educational aspirations for their son’s education compared to their daughters’, but boys end up dropping out from school earlier than girls.

• The ‘return to aspirations’ is higher for boys: the default option for them is to drop out from school after age 15.

• In contexts of extreme poverty, parents make pro-boys investments.

• Non-education-related aspirations and outside opportunities matter for schooling decisions.

Insights from qualitative research

• Biographical view into why children revise their aspirations, and the importance of family dynamics and changing household circumstances.

• Mustn’t view educational aspirations in a vacuum – they are part of broader life projects and histories; children manage multiple demands on their time and expectations (e.g. to go to school, to work, to care for family members)

• Notions of ‘choice’ and ‘decision-making’ imply that children have options and some degree of personal (or even collective) agency – but in this context, these are limited (including for adults)

• Intergenerational perspectives and social change: rapid expansion of primary schooling in the country, many parents have little formal education, perceived new opportunities and children themselves are influential in shaping the aspirations their parents have for their children.

• ‘Aspirations’ aren’t enough to secure wellbeing. Education does not guarantee jobs. When they see others struggling to secure employment, they start to question the value of education for securing jobs.

• The material also matters very much. The characteristics of labour market demand and traditional social norms around gender roles and responsibilities are likely to substantially affect the opportunity cost of being enrolled at school.

• “Towards a 'Bright Future': Young People Overcoming Poverty and Risk in Ethiopia” Nardos Chuta and Gina Crivello, Young Lives Working Paper 107, 2013

• “Aspiration Failure: A poverty trap for indigenous children in Peru?” Laure Pasquier-Doumer and Fiorella Risso Brandon,Young Lives Working Paper 116, 2013

• “Education Aspirations and Barriers to Achievement for Young People in Ethiopia” Yisak Tafere, Young Lives Working Paper 120, 2014

• “Children’s Agency in Responding to Shocks and Adverse Events in Ethiopia” Nardos Chuta, Young Lives Working Paper 128, 2014

Insights from qualitative research: references

• “Children’s Experiences of Household Poverty Dynamics in Ethiopia” Yisak Tafere, Young Lives Working Paper 132 2014

• “Youth Trajectories through Work and Marriage in Rural Ethiopia” Nardos Chuta and Virginia Morrow, Young Lives Working Paper 135, 2015

• “Risk and Capability in the Context of Adversity: Children’s Contributions to Household Livelihoods in Ethiopia” Jo Boyden in Children, Youth and Environments 19(2), 2009

Insights from qualitative research: references

• Young Lives children, parents/caregivers as well as community leaders, teachers, health workers and others in communities.

• Fieldworkers, data-managers, survey enumerators and supervisors, principal investigators and country directors in each country

• Funders: DFID, DGIS, IrishAid, Oak Foundation, Bernard Van Leer Foundation.

Special thanks to

www.younglives.org.uk• methodology and research papers• datasets (UK Data Archive)• child profiles and photos

marta.favara@qeh.ox.ac.ukgina.crivello@qeh.ox.ac.uk

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