DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468...

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DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction Conference 20th september 2018

Transcript of DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468...

Page 1: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

DNB

Nordic Real

Estate

Construction

Conference

20th september 2018

Page 2: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

2 625 1 643 37 828

1 689

429 570 221 727

Per 30.06.2018

Value adjusted equity Results IFRS Number of employees

Homes sold Number of members/owners Homes under management

Earnings before tax MNOK

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174 330

197 001

222 422

260 321

338 654

369 566

393 923

416 800

435 451 432 803

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

2000 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (per 01.07.2018)

Members 2000-2018

Page 4: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

OBOS moving from Oslo to Norway and Sweden

- A leading Nordic real estate company

Page 5: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

Banking, insurance and real estate

agents

Major shareholdings

Project management and

consulting

Commercial real estate

development and ownership

Residential development

Key OBOS trademarks

Residential management and

services

Diversified but focused in real estate and construction

Renewable energy

Nye Hjem

Projektutveckling Mark

Fornebu Ulven

Eiendomsforvaltning Forvaltning

Forretningsbygg

Prosjekt

Energi

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v

Membership

services

Den norske Opera / Maxbo / Tryg forsikring

Management

of housing companies

OBOS Forvaltning

Estate brokerage

OBOS Eiendomsmeglere / Exact

House building

maintenance / renewal

OBOS Nye Hjem / Block Watne / OBOS Prosjekt

OBOS Sverige,/OBOS Kärnhem / Myresjöhus /

SmålandsVillan

Financing of housing

companies and members

OBOS-banken

OBOS’ unique value chain

Page 7: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

OBOS is present in all major housing segments

Major urban

development

projects

Apartments

Semi-detached

Single family

Homes - project

Single family

- on customers

order

Page 8: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 9: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 10: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 11: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 12: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 13: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

1 894

1 494

1 099

825 763

366 293 644

348

141 4

49 290

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

Skanska YIT Peab OBOS

60

Selvaag Bonava Veidekke JM

1 536

As of 30.06.2018 (net)

Unit sales in the Nordics

OBOS Nye Hjem

OBOS Danmark

OBOS Fornebu

Block Watne

Ulven

OBOS Sverige

Kärnhem

Y/Y 17 % -21 % -31 % -37 % -12 % -36 % 3 % -55 %

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OBOS sales as of Q2 2014-2018

640690 685

811644

350380 421

492

348

296

749981 587

442

141181135150

144

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2 200

2 400

Number of homes sold (Gross)

60

49

2017

1 689

2018

2 330

105

2015

5 3

2 160

2016

2 113

89

92

2014

1 468

90 Ulven

Kärnhem

OFL

OBOS Sverige

ONH

Block Watne

OBOS Danmark

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OBOS sales per month

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Units

feb-18

200

oct-17 aug-17 nov-17

282

sep-17 dec-17 jan-18 mar-18 apr-18 may-18 jun-18 jul-18 aug-18

240

294

143 167

230

260

356

238

438

66

230

OBOS Nye Hjem OBOS Danmark

Ulven OBOS Fornebu

Block Watne

OBOS Sverige

OBOS Kärnhem

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2 311

1 961

1 417

126

1 116

723

373 336 695

220 45

223

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2 200

2 400

Peab YIT JM Skanska OBOS Bonava Veidekke Selvaag

1 309

As of 30.06.2018 (net)

Units started in the Nordics

Block Watne

OBOS Danmark

OBOS Nye Hjem

OBOS Fornebu

Ulven

OBOS Sverige

Kärnhem

Y/Y 24 % -1 % -18 % -29 % -26 % -41 % -58 % -33 %

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7 814 7 564

6 442 6 020

546

4 794

2 251

1 503

1 511

978

1 661

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

YIT JM Peab Skanska OBOS Bonava Veidekke Selvaag

5 010

314

As of 30.06.2018 (net)

Units under production in the Nordics

OBOS Nye Hjem

Block Watne

Ulven

OBOS Fornebu

OBOS Danmark

Kärnhem

OBOS Sverige

Y/Y 3 % 9 % 60 % 16 % 7 % 1 % -22 % -5 %

Page 18: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

OBOS units under production

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

oct-17 jun-18

No of units

feb-18 aug-17 sep-17 dec-17 nov-17 jan-18 aug-18 mar-18

5 549 5 764

4 989

apr-18 may-18 jul-18

5 040 4 955 4 936

5 842

4 850

5 693 5 338

4 952

5 433

5 010

OBOS Nye Hjem OBOS Sverige

OBOS Fornebu Block Watne

Ulven

OBOS Kärnhem

Page 19: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

Very low number of completions expected in 2020

• OBOS will complete 450 homes (gross) in

Oslo in 2020 – normally 20% + marketshare

• According to count made by Econ Nye

Boliger there will be a total of 1824

completion in Oslo in 2020 (projects 15+

units)

• If added 500 units in smaller projects, the

total number of completions will be a total of

2500 units in 2020

• Number of completions will fall by more than

50% from levels in 2018 and 2019

• Will lead to a shortage in supply, even in a

minimum population growth scenario with

notable effects on home prices

Page 20: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

12-month growth rate estimated at 5-7 % for Norway, 8-10 % for Oslo

• Low interest rate despite increase in september. Cash is free

• Increasing wages and employment

• Optimism amongst households

• High activity level. Housing demand on stable high level. Strong level of use of preemptive rights in OBOS -

30% in august 2018 vs 16% in August 2017.

• Increasing supply of newbuilds in second half of 2018. May restrict prices. Newbuilds however is a limited

share of total supply and a share is bought by investors and first-time-buyers who are not selling

• Interest rate increase may scare some households and contribute to negative market sentiment

• Population growth continues to be low

• Mortgage regulations continued

Norwegian property market 2018 Price increase sooner than expected, slowing down however

Page 21: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

12-month growth rate estimated at +2-4%

• Low interest rate throughout 2018, increasing as from spring 2019. Cash is free

• Increasing employment, diminishing from 2019

• Increasing wages, slightly diminishing from 2019

• Population growth at 100 000 per year

• High supply of housing. Buyers market

• Mortgage regulations leading to restrictive banks with amortisation requirements

• Interest rate increase may lead to negative market sentiment

Swedish property market 2018 Stable development – also in Stockholm

Page 22: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

Construction City

?

Page 23: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 24: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282
Page 25: DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468 Ulven 90 Kärnhem OFL OBOS Sverige ONH ... feb-18 200 aug-17 oct-17 nov-17 282

@obosdaniel