DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468...
Transcript of DNB Nordic Real Estate Construction - MeetMax...2 330 105 2015 3 5 2 160 2016 2 113 89 92 2014 1 468...
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DNB
Nordic Real
Estate
Construction
Conference
20th september 2018
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2 625 1 643 37 828
1 689
429 570 221 727
Per 30.06.2018
Value adjusted equity Results IFRS Number of employees
Homes sold Number of members/owners Homes under management
Earnings before tax MNOK
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174 330
197 001
222 422
260 321
338 654
369 566
393 923
416 800
435 451 432 803
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
2000 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (per 01.07.2018)
Members 2000-2018
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OBOS moving from Oslo to Norway and Sweden
- A leading Nordic real estate company
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Banking, insurance and real estate
agents
Major shareholdings
Project management and
consulting
Commercial real estate
development and ownership
Residential development
Key OBOS trademarks
Residential management and
services
Diversified but focused in real estate and construction
Renewable energy
Nye Hjem
Projektutveckling Mark
Fornebu Ulven
Eiendomsforvaltning Forvaltning
Forretningsbygg
Prosjekt
Energi
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v
Membership
services
Den norske Opera / Maxbo / Tryg forsikring
Management
of housing companies
OBOS Forvaltning
Estate brokerage
OBOS Eiendomsmeglere / Exact
House building
maintenance / renewal
OBOS Nye Hjem / Block Watne / OBOS Prosjekt
OBOS Sverige,/OBOS Kärnhem / Myresjöhus /
SmålandsVillan
Financing of housing
companies and members
OBOS-banken
OBOS’ unique value chain
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OBOS is present in all major housing segments
Major urban
development
projects
Apartments
Semi-detached
Single family
Homes - project
Single family
- on customers
order
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1 894
1 494
1 099
825 763
366 293 644
348
141 4
49 290
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Skanska YIT Peab OBOS
60
Selvaag Bonava Veidekke JM
1 536
As of 30.06.2018 (net)
Unit sales in the Nordics
OBOS Nye Hjem
OBOS Danmark
OBOS Fornebu
Block Watne
Ulven
OBOS Sverige
Kärnhem
Y/Y 17 % -21 % -31 % -37 % -12 % -36 % 3 % -55 %
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OBOS sales as of Q2 2014-2018
640690 685
811644
350380 421
492
348
296
749981 587
442
141181135150
144
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
Number of homes sold (Gross)
60
49
2017
1 689
2018
2 330
105
2015
5 3
2 160
2016
2 113
89
92
2014
1 468
90 Ulven
Kärnhem
OFL
OBOS Sverige
ONH
Block Watne
OBOS Danmark
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OBOS sales per month
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Units
feb-18
200
oct-17 aug-17 nov-17
282
sep-17 dec-17 jan-18 mar-18 apr-18 may-18 jun-18 jul-18 aug-18
240
294
143 167
230
260
356
238
438
66
230
OBOS Nye Hjem OBOS Danmark
Ulven OBOS Fornebu
Block Watne
OBOS Sverige
OBOS Kärnhem
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2 311
1 961
1 417
126
1 116
723
373 336 695
220 45
223
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
Peab YIT JM Skanska OBOS Bonava Veidekke Selvaag
1 309
As of 30.06.2018 (net)
Units started in the Nordics
Block Watne
OBOS Danmark
OBOS Nye Hjem
OBOS Fornebu
Ulven
OBOS Sverige
Kärnhem
Y/Y 24 % -1 % -18 % -29 % -26 % -41 % -58 % -33 %
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7 814 7 564
6 442 6 020
546
4 794
2 251
1 503
1 511
978
1 661
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
YIT JM Peab Skanska OBOS Bonava Veidekke Selvaag
5 010
314
As of 30.06.2018 (net)
Units under production in the Nordics
OBOS Nye Hjem
Block Watne
Ulven
OBOS Fornebu
OBOS Danmark
Kärnhem
OBOS Sverige
Y/Y 3 % 9 % 60 % 16 % 7 % 1 % -22 % -5 %
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OBOS units under production
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
oct-17 jun-18
No of units
feb-18 aug-17 sep-17 dec-17 nov-17 jan-18 aug-18 mar-18
5 549 5 764
4 989
apr-18 may-18 jul-18
5 040 4 955 4 936
5 842
4 850
5 693 5 338
4 952
5 433
5 010
OBOS Nye Hjem OBOS Sverige
OBOS Fornebu Block Watne
Ulven
OBOS Kärnhem
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Very low number of completions expected in 2020
• OBOS will complete 450 homes (gross) in
Oslo in 2020 – normally 20% + marketshare
• According to count made by Econ Nye
Boliger there will be a total of 1824
completion in Oslo in 2020 (projects 15+
units)
• If added 500 units in smaller projects, the
total number of completions will be a total of
2500 units in 2020
• Number of completions will fall by more than
50% from levels in 2018 and 2019
• Will lead to a shortage in supply, even in a
minimum population growth scenario with
notable effects on home prices
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12-month growth rate estimated at 5-7 % for Norway, 8-10 % for Oslo
• Low interest rate despite increase in september. Cash is free
• Increasing wages and employment
• Optimism amongst households
• High activity level. Housing demand on stable high level. Strong level of use of preemptive rights in OBOS -
30% in august 2018 vs 16% in August 2017.
• Increasing supply of newbuilds in second half of 2018. May restrict prices. Newbuilds however is a limited
share of total supply and a share is bought by investors and first-time-buyers who are not selling
• Interest rate increase may scare some households and contribute to negative market sentiment
• Population growth continues to be low
• Mortgage regulations continued
Norwegian property market 2018 Price increase sooner than expected, slowing down however
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12-month growth rate estimated at +2-4%
• Low interest rate throughout 2018, increasing as from spring 2019. Cash is free
• Increasing employment, diminishing from 2019
• Increasing wages, slightly diminishing from 2019
• Population growth at 100 000 per year
• High supply of housing. Buyers market
• Mortgage regulations leading to restrictive banks with amortisation requirements
• Interest rate increase may lead to negative market sentiment
Swedish property market 2018 Stable development – also in Stockholm
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Construction City
?
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@obosdaniel