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    DuckworthLewis methodFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    This article is about the cricketing term. For the Irish pop group, seeThe Duckworth Lewis Method.

    In thesportofcricket, the Duckworth

    Lewis method (D/L method) is a mathematical formulation

    designed to calculate the target score for the team batting second in aone-day cricketorTwenty20

    cricketmatch interrupted by weather or other circumstance. It is generally accepted to be a fair and

    accurate method of setting a target score, but as it attempts to predict what would have happenedhad the

    game come to its natural conclusion, it generates some controversy. The D/L method was devised by two

    Englishstatisticians,Frank DuckworthandTony Lewis.[1]

    Contents

    [hide]

    1 Examples

    o 1.1 Stoppage in first innings

    o 1.2 Stoppage in second innings

    o 1.3 Examples in T20 matches

    2 Theory

    3 Application

    4 History and creation

    5 Updates

    6 Criticism

    7 Cultural influence

    8 References

    9 Further reading

    10 External links

    [edit]Examples

    [edit]Stoppage in first innings

    In the 4thIndiaEnglandODI in the 2008 series, the first innings was interrupted by rain on two

    occasions, resulting in the match being reduced to 22 overs a side. India (batting first) made 166/4.

    England's target was therefore set by the D/L method at 198 from 22 overs.

    During the fifth ODI between India and South Africa in January 2011, rain halted play twice during the first

    innings. The match was reduced to 46 overs and South Africa scored 250-9. The D/L method was applied

    which adjusted the target to 268. As the number of overs was reduced in between South Africa's innings,

    this method takes into account what South Africa would have scored before the first interruption. Despite

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ethod#Cultural_influencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Criticismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Updateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#History_and_creationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Applicationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Examples_in_T20_matcheshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Stoppage_in_second_inningshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Stoppage_in_first_inningshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#Exampleshttp://c/Users/sachin/Downloads/Duckworth%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%93Lewis%20method%20-%20Wikipedia,%20the%20free%20encyclopedia.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-dec-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Lewis_(mathematician)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Duckworthhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statisticianhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty20_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty20_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Duckworth_Lewis_Method
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    Yusuf Pathan scoring 105 runs off 70 balls (8 four's & 8 sixes), India were bowled out for 234 resulting in a

    33 run victory for South Africa who clinched the series 3-2.

    Both examples illustrate how the D/L method is applied. In the case of the first match, as

    England knewthey had only 22 overs the expectation is that they will be able to score more runs fromthose overs than India had from their (interrupted) innings. England made 178/8 from 22 overs, and so the

    match was listed as "India won by 19 runs (D/L method)".[2]

    This is not a perfect method in some conditions.

    [edit]Stoppage in second innings

    A simple example of the D/L method being applied was the firstOne Day International(ODI)

    betweenIndiaandPakistanin their 2006 ODI series. India batted first, and were all out in the 49th over for

    328. Pakistan, batting second, were 7 wickets down for 311 when bad light stopped play after the 47th

    over.

    In this example, Pakistan's target, had the match continued, was 18 runs in as many balls, with three

    wickets in hand. Considering the overall scoring rate throughout the match, this is a target most teams

    would be favoured to achieve. And indeed, application of the D/L method resulted in a target score of 304

    at the end of the 47th over, with the officially listed result as "Pakistan won by 7 runs (D/L Method)" .[3]

    [edit]Examples in T20 matches

    During the2010 ICC World T20, the D/L method was used in the group stage match betweenSri

    LankaandZimbabwe. Sri Lanka scored 173/7 in 20 overs batting first and Zimbabwe were 29/1 in 5 overs

    when rain interrupted play. Sri Lanka won the match by 14 runs according to the D/L method .

    [4]

    On the same day, another group match between England and West Indies was also decided by the D/L

    method. England scored 191/5 in 20 overs, and rain interrupted play after 2.2 overs of the chase when

    West Indies had scored 30/0. According to the D/L method, West Indies were set a target of 60 runs in 6

    overs, which they achieved with a ball to spare.[5]

    The then English captain Paul Collingwood heavily

    criticized the usage and appropriateness of the D/L method in T20 matches .[6]

    [edit]Theory

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    The essence of the D/L method is 'resources'. Each team is taken to have two 'resources' to use to make

    as manyrunsas possible: the number ofoversthey have to receive; and the number ofwicketsthey have

    in hand. At any point in anyinnings, a team's ability to score more runs depends on the combination of

    these two resources. Looking at historical scores, there is a very close correspondence between the

    availability of these resources and a team's final score, a correspondence which D/L exploits .[7]

    Using a published table which gives the percentage of these combined resources remaining for any

    number of overs (or, more accurately, balls) left and wickets lost, the target score can be adjusted up or

    down to reflect the loss of resources to one or both teams when a match is shortened one or more times.

    This percentage is then used to calculate a target (sometimes called a 'par score') that is usually a

    fractional number of runs. If the second team passes the target then the second team is taken to have won

    the match; if the match ends when the second team has exactly met (but not passed) the target (rounded

    down to the nextinteger) then the match is taken to be atie.

    [edit]Application

    The Duckworth/Lewis method is fairly simple to apply, but requires a published reference table and some

    simplemathematicalcalculations. As with most non-trivialstatisticalderivations, the D/L method can

    produce results that are somewhatcounterintuitive, and the announcement of the derived target score can

    provoke a good deal of second-guessing and discussion amongst the crowd at the cricket ground. This can

    also be seen as one of the method's successes, adding interest to a "slow" rain-affected day of play.

    Applied to 50-over matches, each team must face at least 20 overs before D/L can decide the game.

    InTwenty20games, each side must face at least five overs.

    [edit]History and creation

    The D/L method was devised by two Britishstatisticians,Frank DuckworthandTony Lewis. It was first

    used in international cricket in the second game of the 1996/7ZimbabweversusEnglandOne Day

    Internationalseries, which Zimbabwe won by seven runs,[8]

    and was formally adopted by theInternational

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    Cricket Councilin 2001 as the standard method of calculating target scores in rain shortenedone-

    daymatches.

    Various different methods had been used previously, includingrun-rateratios, the score that the first team

    had achieved at the same point in theirinnings, and targets derived by totaling the best scoringoversin theinitial innings. All these methods have flaws that are easily exploitable. For example, run-rate ratios take no

    account of how manywicketsthe team batting second have lost, but simply reflect how quickly they were

    scoring when the match was interrupted; so, if a team felt a rain stoppage was likely they could attempt to

    force the scoring rate without regard for the corresponding highly likely loss of wickets, skewing the

    comparison with the first team. Notoriously, the "best-scoring overs" method, used in the1992 Cricket

    World Cup, left theSouth African cricket teamrequiring 21 runs from one ball (when the maximum score

    from one ball is generally six runs). Before a brief rain interruption, South Africa was chasing a target of 22

    runs from 13 balls but, fol lowing the stoppage, the team's amended target became 21 (a reduction of only

    one run) to be scored off just one ball (a reduction of 12 balls).[9]

    The D/L method avoids this flaw: in this

    match, the revised D/L target would have been four runs to tie or five to win from the final ball.[10]

    [edit]Updates

    The published table that underpins the D/L method is regularly updated, most recently in 2004, as it

    became clear that one-day matches were achieving significantly higher scores than in previous decades,

    affecting the historical relationship between resources and runs.

    At the same time as this update, the D/L method was also split into a Professional Edition and a Standard

    Edition.[11]

    The main difference is that while the Standard Edition preserves the use of a single table and

    simple calculation suitable for use in any one-day cricket match at any level the Professional Edition

    uses substantially more sophisticated statistical modelling, and requires the use of a computer. The

    Professional Edition has been in use in all international one-day cricket matches since early 2004.

    In June 2009, it was reported that the D/L method would be reviewed for the Twenty20 format after its

    appropriateness was questioned in the quickest version of the game. Lewis was quoted admitting that

    "Certainly, people have suggested that we need to look very carefully and see whether in fact the numbers

    in our formula are totally appropriate for the Twenty20 game."[12]

    [edit]Criticism

    The D/L method has been criticized on the grounds that wickets are (necessarily) a much more heavily

    weighted resource than overs, leading to the suggestion that if teams are chasing big targets, and there is

    the prospect of rain, a winning strategy could be to not lose wickets and score at what would seem to be a

    "losing" rate (e.g. if the asking rate was 6.1, it could be enough to score at 4.75 an over for the first 20 25

    overs).[13]

    Another criticism is that the D/L method does not account for changes in the proportion of the innings for

    which field restrictions are in place compared to a completed match.[14]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cricket_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cricket_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inningshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inningshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inningshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over_(cricket)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over_(cricket)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over_(cricket)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cricket_World_Cuphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cricket_World_Cuphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cricket_World_Cuphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cricket_World_Cuphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_cricket_teamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_cricket_teamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_cricket_teamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-8http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-8http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-8http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-9http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=8http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=8http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=8http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-10http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-10http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-10http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=9http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=9http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-12http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-12http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-12http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-12http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-10http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method&action=edit&section=8http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth%E2%80%93Lewis_method#cite_note-8http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_cricket_teamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cricket_World_Cuphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cricket_World_Cuphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over_(cricket)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inningshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-day_crickethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cricket_Council
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    More common informal criticism from cricket fans and journalists of the D/L method is that it is overly

    complex and can be misunderstood.[15]

    For example, in aone-day match against England on 20 March

    2009, the West Indies coach (John Dyson) called his players in for bad light, believing that his team would

    win by one run under the D/L method, but not realising that the loss of a wicket with the last ball had altered

    the Duckworth-Lewis score. In factJavagal Srinath, the match referee, confirmed that the West Indies were

    two runs short of their target, giving the victory to England.

    [edit]Cultural influence

    "The Duckworth Lewis Method" is the name of a band formed byNeil HannonofThe Divine Comedyand

    Thomas Walsh ofPugwash, which recorded a self-titled concept album of cricket songs.[16][17]

    [edit]References

    1. ^"A Decade of Duckworth-Lewis".BBC. 2007-01-01. Retrieved 2009-03-

    21.

    2. ^Scorecardfor the rain-affected 4th ODI between India and England on

    23 November 2008, fromCricinfo.

    3. ^Scorecardfor the rain-affected 1st ODI between India and Pakistan on

    6 February 2006, fromCricinfo.

    4. ^[1]

    5. ^http://www.cricinfo.com/world-twenty20-

    2010/engine/current/match/412685.html

    6. ^http://www.cricinfo.com/world-twenty20-

    2010/content/current/story/458375.html

    7. ^Data Analysis Australia'sdetailed mathematical analysisof the

    Duckworth-Lewis Method daa.com.au.

    8. ^Scorecardof the 2nd ODI between England and Zimbabwe, 1 January

    1997, fromCricinfo.

    9. ^"22 off one ball A farcical rain rule leaves everyone bewildered",

    fromCricinfo.

    10. ^"Stump the Bearded Wonder",Bill Frindallexplains how D/L would

    apply to 1992 WC semi-final

    11. ^Rain affected rulesfromCricinfo.

    12. ^Duckworth-Lewis to review their formula for T20 matches

    13. ^Bhogle, Srinivas,The Duckworth/Lewis Factor, rediff.com.

    14. ^Booth, Shane, quoted inFor a Fair Formula, Hindu Online.

    15. ^Varma, Amit,Simple and subjective? Or complex and objective?,

    Cricinfo

    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    16. ^BBC news interview with The Duckworth Lewis Method

    17. ^Interview with band

    [edit]Further reading

    Duckworth, FC & Lewis, AJ "Your Comprehensive Guide to The

    Duckworth Lewis Method for Resetting Targets in One-day Cricket",

    Acumen Books, 2004.ISBN 0-9548718-0-4

    Duckworth, F "A Role for Statistics in International Cricket" Teaching

    Statistics, (June 2001) Volume 23, No. 2 pp 3844

    Duckworth, FC & Lewis, AJ "A fair method for resetting the target in

    interrupted one-day cricket matches" Journal of the Operational Research

    Society, (Mar 1998) Volume 49, No. 3 pp 220227JSTOR3010471

    [edit]External links

    ICC's D/L method FAQ

    Cricinfo's D/L method FAQ

    Duckworth-Lewis.com D/L method online calculator

    ICC's D/L method (standard edition) table of resource percentages

    Cricinfo's explanation of the D/L method

    ICC's explanation of the D/L method

    BBC Sport's explanation of the D/L method

    Calculator for the Professional Edition of the D/L method

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