Dissertation Final Eugenia Metzaki

download Dissertation Final Eugenia Metzaki

of 96

  • date post

    10-Sep-2014
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    49
  • download

    3

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Dissertation Final Eugenia Metzaki

THE USEFULNESS OF LONG TERM DATASETS FROM OIL SPILL POLLUTION MONITORING IN DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS.

By Eugenia Metzaki

Submitted as part assessment for the degree of Master of Science

In

Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

University of Heriot-Watt, Edinburgh

SCHOOL OF LIFE SCIENCES

Project Title: THE USEFULNESS OF LONG TERM DATASETS FROM OIL SPILL POLLUTION MONITORING IN DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS.

I, EUGENIA METZAKI, confirm that this work submitted for assessment is my own and is expressed in my own words. Any uses made within it of works of other authors in any form (ideas, equations, figures, text, tables, programmes etc.) are properly acknowledged at the point of their use. A full list of the references employed is included.

Signed: ..

Date:

CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express sincere appreciation to Professor James M. Mair for his guidance in the preparation of this manuscript. In addition, special thanks should go to Iain Matheson and Jonathan Hunt, of Fugro ERT, for the provisioning of the historical data, and to Wendy McGonical, of Fugro ERT, for her assistance with periodical needs of information.

ii

ABSTRACT

This dissertation presents the results of an analysis of long-term monitoring data from the Sullom Voe terminal area collected over the years 1979-2011, carried out by Fugro ERT that kindly provided part of the required data. The data included population counts and indices for the top five taxa for four stations in the Shetland Islands area. These stations, identified as C, D, E and K, were around the Sullom Voe terminal and were the focus of all sampling proceedings. It was investigated herein, as to whether any meteorological variables could have influenced the population, but the results were not conclusive. The variables examined were seas surface temperatures and salinity measurements of the Sullom Voe area. The analysis conducted identified certain areas of improvement for this kind of assessment. Namely the cross-comparison of the data from other sampling stations in the area, and also the introduction and analysis of additional meteorological factors, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric pressure, wave heights, wind direction, etc., which were outside the scope of this enquiry.

CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction ................................................................................................9 1.1 General Approach...............................................................................9 1.2 Climate in the Area............................................................................14 1.3 Long term Environmental monitoring ...............................................16 1.4 Historical Review ..............................................................................17 1.5 The Sullom Voe monitoring programme ...........................................19 1.6 Visualisation of satellite data with GIS software .................................21

2 Data Analysis .............................................................................................23 2.1 Introduction......................................................................................23 2.2 Methodology.....................................................................................26 2.2.1 Diversity indices ...........................................................................................27 2.2.2 Rarefaction Technique ..................................................................................31 2.2.3 Subsampling method ....................................................................................31 2.3 Results ..............................................................................................32 2.4 Discussion ........................................................................................44 3 Environmental Factors...............................................................................50 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................50 3.2 Methods............................................................................................53 3.3 Results ..............................................................................................56 3.4 Discussion ........................................................................................60

4

4 Conclusions ...............................................................................................63 5 Appendix I.................................................................................................68 6 Appendix II ...............................................................................................76 7 Bibliography ..............................................................................................92

CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

5

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The location of the Sullom Voe terminal in Shetland islands, Scotland. (Fugro ERT, 2010)...................................................................................................12 Figure 2: Macrobenthos sample stations in relation to the full station grid and the effluent discharge site. Stations C, D, E, and F shown to the North were used in this report. (Fugro ERT, 2010) .....................................................................25 Figure 3: Station C - Prionospio fallax population for the years 1979-2010 ............................33 Figure 4: Station C - Thyasira flexuosa population for the years 1979-2010 ...........................34 Figure 5: Station C - Amphiura filiformis population for the years 1979-2010........................34 Figure 6: Station C Pholoe spp population for the years 1979-2010 .......................................35 Figure 7: Station C - Urothoe elegans population for the years 1979-2010 ............................35 Figure 8: Station D - Top taxa populations for the years 1979-2010 ......................................37 Figure 9: Station E - Top taxa populations for the years 1979-2010 .......................................38 Figure 10: Station K - Top taxa populations for the years 1979-2010.....................................39 Figure 11: Hurlbert's rarefaction curves for stations C, D, E, and K, Sullom Voe survey, May 2010. (Fugro ERT, 2010) ......................................................................43 Figure 12: Top taxa species count for station C for the years 1979-2010................................45 Figure 13: Top taxa species count for station D for the years 1979-2010 ...............................46 Figure 14: Top taxa species count for station E for the years 1979-2010................................47 Figure 15: Top taxa species count for station K for the years 1979-2010 ...............................48 CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

6

Figure 16: These maps show air pressure patterns on November 7, 2010 (left), when the Arctic Oscillation was strongly positive, and on December 18 (right), when it was strongly negative. These phases are the result of the whole atmosphere periodically shifting its weight back and forth between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, like water sloshing back and forth in a bowl. (Maps by Ned Gardiner and Hunter Allen, based on Global Forecast System data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.) ...................................................................51 Figure 17: Winter (December through March) index of the NAO based on the difference of normalised pressures between Lisbon, Portugal, and Stykkisholmur, celand, from 1864 through 1994. The heavy olid line represents the meridional pressure gradient smoothed with a low-pass filter with seven weights (1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 3, and 1) to remove fluctuations with periods less than 4 years. Data and plot from (Hurrell, 1995). ............................52 Figure 18: Distribution of rainfall across Scotland showing the marked contrast in precipitation regimes between east and west. As a general rule, Shetland experiences higher than average rainfall. (Courtesy of UK Meteorological Office).....................................................................................................................53

CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

7

Figure 19: Areas near the Shetlands from which SST is analysed. Main area of data collection was between 5 E and 0 longitude and 60 N to 65 N latitude. Note that negative values indicate Westernly longitudes. ..............................55 Figure 20: Temperature measurements in degrees Celsius, for the Shetlands area. The blue line indicates the raw data; the red line shows the 2-year running mean filtered data, and the black line is the linear trend-line of the filtered data. Data from (ICES Oceanographic Database) .....................................................58 Figure 21: Salinity measurements in psu, for the Shetlands area. The blue line indicates the raw data; the red line shows the 2-year running mean filtered data, and the black line is the linear trend-line of the filtered data. Data from (ICES Oceanographic Database). ....................................................................60 Figure 22: Station C - Prionospio fallax population for the years 1979-2010 ..........................68 Figure 23: Station C Thyasira flexuosa population for the years 1979-2010 .........................68 Figure 24: Station C Amphiura filiformis population for the years 1979-2010 .....................69 Figure 25: Station C - Pholoe spp population for the years 1979-2010 ...................................69 Figure 26: Station C Urothoe elegans population