Kobena T. HANSON, PhD

Independent Development Evaluation/AfDB

Disruptive Technologies, Innovation & Development in Africa: Implications for Evaluation

9th AfrEA Conference, Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire

Session: ‘Perspectives on the 4IR and the African Evaluation Practice’

March 14, 2019 :

Outline

Outline

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Introduction4IR & Disruptive TechnologiesDisrupted LandscapeEvaluation & Disruptive TechWay Forward & Conclusion

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Introduction

• 4IR – a union of digital technology & creative economy is having a disruptive effect on society never imagined– Shaping labor force patterns /employment /inequality

– New wave of ‘technopreneurs’ / innovators

• Technology is more accessible, widely used and seamlessly integrated than ever

• Information travels, is demanded, & influences more people at a much faster and inter-connected pace than ever before– Avalanche of data & ease of sharing (mis)information unprecedented

Introduction/Context

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

4IR & Disruptive Technologies

Learning

Evaluation

Culturehttp://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/careers/2018/02/02/fourth-industrial-revolution/

Disruptive Innovation of 4IR

• Pace of technological devt & influences has far-reaching effects on societies – Solutions to complex problems can be generated in unthought of ways &

often via unconventional networks of people

• Augmented & virtual reality (AR/VR) shape the experience of content consumption– content more powerful than when presented via traditional media

Disrupted Landscape

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

4IR & Disruptive Technologies

Performance demanded at the high end of the market

New performance trajectory

Disruptive technology

PE

RFO

RM

AN

CE

TIME

performance demanded at the low end of the market or in a new emerging market

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

4IR & Disruptive Technologies

Dilemma of Disruption

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Importance of Knowledge

4IR / Value of Knowledge

• Evaluation marketplace is changing rapidly in the face of 4IR, rise of disruptive technologies

• A shift toward a value of knowledge, intellectual capital of people/organizations to use technology wisely, effectively and efficiently

• Winds of change present new challenges and opportunities for evaluation– ONLY grasping how to harness & leverage these tectonic shifts

will one be positioned to seize the opportunities of change

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Evaluators & Disruption

Evaluation & Disruptive Technologies

• AV/big data/block chain/IoT/5G - Revisit approaches– Shape data & info mapping– Real time data – facilitate evaluation quickly (collect/report/disseminate

& redefine stakeholder feedback – Physical-to-digital-to physical loops / real time reaction to shifts in the

ecosystem– Recognize patterns, simulate & model potential futures, and learn.

• Artificial intelligence– Map outcomes/changes & better target interventions (e.g. impact of

regional/macro policies) & micro-level outcomes we might otherwise struggle to measure

• AR/VR : transform storytelling & how content is experienced

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Revised Evaluation Landscape

• Not really! … it’s not set in stone

• Adaptations needed based on context / specific needs

• Rethink how criteria is operationalized in terms of data collection, methods of analysis & reporting

• Rethink approaches– Big data/blockchain/IoT – data & info mapping

– Real time data – facilitate evaluation quickly (collect/report/disseminate & redefine stakeholder feedback

– Real time reaction to shifts in the ecosystem - recognize patterns, simulate & model potential futures, and learn.

Need to rethink OECD-DAC Criteria?

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Opportunities & Challenges

Opportunities, Possibilities & Challenges

• Rise in partnerships– Transformed production, utilization, dissemination & recreation of

evaluative knowledge

• Integration of various perspectives from the plethora of approaches– IPDET and CLEAR-GIMPA

• Rise in fit-for-purpose evaluation / flexibility– Extensively cover various disaggregation's that previously may not be

possible/ wider stakeholders, etc.

• Ability of evaluators to catch up in terms of technology development

• Close gap between evaluators and data scientists– Risk becoming obsolete

– Data mapping/blockchain vs excel

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Challenges

Opportunities, Possibilities & Challenges

What is the Way Forward?

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Way Forward

• Coordinated & collaborative effort

• Need innovate tools & techniques– Africa needs a continental legal and policy framework

• Capacity to address the human dimension of 4IR/ innovation/disruptive technologies/etc.– Continuous awareness & training for stakeholders

• More holistic view of evaluation

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Way Forward

Raise our game to stay in the game!!

The Independent Development Evaluation of the African Development Bank

Conclusion

Concluding remarks

• Negotiating 4IR’s disruption, calls for fit-for-purpose tools- acknowledge & adequately capture effects ofcomplexity

• Challenge becomes moving to the next phase—changinghow we think, train, work, & utilize data—through 4IR.