Disruptive Innovation and Energy · 2016. 3. 3. · Disruptive innovation and energy… • Phase...
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Disruptive Innovation and Energy By Peter Newman Professor of Sustainability CUSP, Curtin University
Transcript of Disruptive Innovation and Energy · 2016. 3. 3. · Disruptive innovation and energy… • Phase...
Disruptive Innovation and Energy
By Peter Newman
Professor of Sustainability CUSP, Curtin University
New understanding of innovation…
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
• Came from Clayton Christensen at Harvard.
• Innovation came from demand, often before it was cheaper than mainstream options. But it ‘felt cheaper’…it performed for them.
• Eg 3.5 inch discs cf 5.5 inch discs…..Notebooks!
• Exponential growth and system disruption
• Mainstream finds it hard to see innovation as they are looking at supply price…so they ignore it. The ‘Kodak effect’
Disruptive innovation and energy…
• Phase out of fossil fuels is happening without disrupting GDP
• Solar energy is happening much quicker than most utilities expected.
• Next phase will be solar/batteries/electric transport
• City transport systems are disrupting
Decoupling GDP and fossil fuels
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India rapidly decoupling GDP from fossil fuels….
Solar takes off….
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Coal & Gas
Renewables
Perth solar city 20% of Perth homes 490 MW in 3 years… ‘It is inevitable…’ Minister for Energy
Next phase solar/batteries/EV’s
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A1 Tariff (AUD$/kwh)
The holy grail arrives
JOSH’S HOUSE It’s carbon positive!
PV Offsets
Tesla
Honda Zero Carbon Home
Cities reducing oil through less car dependence
THE USA IS DRIVING LESS
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UrbanDensity(personsperha)
UrbanDensityTrendin23Ci esintheUSA,Australia,CanadaandEurope,1960-2005
The top 6 most walkable cities in the US have 38% higher GDP.
70% of knowledge economy workers in Boston live in
walkable areas.
Glaeser and Florida…
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USA ANZ CAN EUR ASIA
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Decoupling car use and GDP
Car use is now officially recognised in the US to be decoupling from wealth
Decoupling most of all in the cities with rail investement, eg Washington
DC and Portland
Shanghai 1990 and 2010
1990’s - Flirting with the American model…
Rapidly filled…
So what can be done?
Shanghai Metro…12 lines, 273 stations, 420km covering 80% of metro area…
Built mostly since 2000; carries 8 million per day
Global growth now in ELECTRIC rail …
• 82 Chinese cities building metros and high speed rail between cities Shanghai 8m passengers/day
• 51 Indian cities building metros Any city over 1m.
• Middle east cities building rail for first time
Public Transport
Private
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NUCLEAR NUCLEAR
RENEWABLES
RENEWABLES
GAS
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COAL
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OIL
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CO2
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GDP
GDP
2050 NOW
Predictions – After the Peak
