Disrupting the Car - Princeton University · Disrupting the Car Startups, corporates, and...
Transcript of Disrupting the Car - Princeton University · Disrupting the Car Startups, corporates, and...
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Disrupting the CarStartups, corporates, and technologies disrupting personal car ownership in 2018 and beyond.
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W I T H I N 2 4 H O U R S
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@cbinsights@rachelsbinder#CBIautotech
J O I N T H E C O N V E R S A T I O N O N T W I T T E R
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W H O W E A R E
The technology market intelligence platform.CB Insights software lets you predict, discuss, and communicate emerging technology trends using data in ways that are beyond human cognition. We are a leader in the Expert Automation & Augmentation Software (EAAS) space.
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T R U S T E D B Y T H E W O R L D ’ S L E A D I N G C O M P A N I E S
“We use CB Insights to find emerging trends and interesting companies that might signal a shift in
technology or require us to reallocate resources.”
Beti Cung, Corporate Strategy, Microsoft
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I N D U S T R Y - S C A L E S U M M I T S C L I E N T - O N L Y E V E N T SP E E R - T O - P E E R N E T W O R K
The CBI Community — Membership Has Benefits
DEMO DAY
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Rachel Binder
Rachel Binder is an intelligence associate at CB Insights covering the auto and mobility space. Prior to joining the team at CB Insights, Rachel worked in equity research at Goldman Sachs covering retail companies. Rachel graduated from Brown University with a degree in Economics.
@rachelsbinder | [email protected]
Intelligence Associate
A B O U T T H E A N A L Y S T
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Contents
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1 0
3 3
InfographicDisrupting the car: Alternatives to car ownership by trip length
Short distance transport: Micromobility
Mid-length transport: Ride hailing
4 5
5 0
5 5
Long distance travel: Car sharing
What’s next: Integrated transportation
What’s next: Flying cars
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Disrupting the car
B I K E S & S C O O T E R S R I D E H A I L I N G C A R S H A R I N G
Micromobility Medium distance Long distance0-5 miles
60%of trips in the
US
Sources: NHTS
A L T E R N A T I V E S T O C A R O W N E R S H I P B Y T R I P L E N G T H
25%of trips in the
US
15%of trips in the
US
5-15 miles 15+ miles
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Disrupting the car
B I K E S & S C O O T E R S R I D E H A I L I N G C A R S H A R I N G
Micromobility Medium distance Long distance0-5 miles
60%of trips in the
US
Sources: NHTS
A L T E R N A T I V E S T O C A R O W N E R S H I P B Y T R I P L E N G T H
25%of trips in the
US
15%of trips in the
US
5-15 miles 15+ miles
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Bike-Sharing Proliferates in U.S.
March 15, 2018 |
Bikes and scooters explode in the US
Sources: Bloomberg, WSJ , Quartz, The New York Times, Forbes
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Bikes & scooters top-of-mind in recent weeks
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Bike and scooter tech market mapA new ecosystem emerges
A number of startups are working on shared vehicle networks, vehicle design, and charging infrastructure for bicycles, scooters, mopeds, and other compact vehicles for one to two passengers.
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Sharing services drive bulk of bike/scooter fundingDeal activity from 2014-2018TD (7/10/2018)
Funding goes to sharing platforms rather than manufacturers
Startups operating shared bike and scooter services have gained traction more quickly than manufacturers by offering access to bikes and scooters without the inconveniences of ownership.
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Investors search for the next Uber or Didi
A number of unicorns have emerged as investors focus on the largest, most dominant platforms.
Funding timeline for bike/scooter-sharing unicorns2014 - 2018 YTD (as of 7/11/18)
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Why bikes and scooters, and why now?
A D D R E S S I N G T H E F I R S T / L A S T M I L E
Cities are getting more congested due to urban migration, but fewer people are using public transport, creating more traffic on the roads.
Bikes and scooters can connect multiple points of transit to facilitate the use of public transport and replace cars for shorter-distance trips.
T H E R I S E O F D O C K L E S S S Y S T E M S
A confluence of maturing technologies –namely mobile payments, IoT, and GPS –has allowed companies to launch dockless sharing platforms.
Dockless systems are more convenient for the user and also require lower capital costs for platform operators, making it easier to scale and maintain profitability.
1 2 3
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N F I N A L L Y S C A L E
Battery costs for electric vehicles are falling and are expected to continue to drop moving forward.
Lower manufacturing costs will make electric bikes and scooters more affordable, allowing sharing platforms to more cost-effectively scale their systems.
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Why bikes and scooters, and why now?
A D D R E S S I N G T H E F I R S T / L A S T M I L E
Cities are getting more congested due to urban migration, but fewer people are using public transport, creating more traffic on the roads.
Bikes and scooters can connect multiple points of transit to facilitate the use of public transport and replace cars for shorter-distance trips.
T H E R I S E O F D O C K L E S S S Y S T E M S
A confluence of maturing technologies –namely mobile payments, IoT, and GPS –has allowed companies to launch dockless sharing platforms.
Dockless systems are more convenient for the user and also require lower capital costs for platform operators, making it easier to scale and maintain profitability.
1 2 3
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N F I N A L L Y S C A L E
Battery costs for electric vehicles are falling and are expected to continue to drop moving forward.
Lower manufacturing costs will make electric bikes and scooters more affordable, allowing sharing platforms to more cost-effectively scale their systems.
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More people are moving to cities, but fewer people are using public transportation with the rise of ride hailing and historically lower gas prices.
Catering to first- and last-mile transport, bikes and scooters help commuters access public transportation that’s too far away to reach by walking, which could help encourage usage.
Fewer people are using public transportation
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Q1'
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Declines in public transportation usage
are worsening
Source: American Public Transportation Association
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Micromobility proves to be more efficient
As traffic levels worsen, bikes and scooters are offering a more efficient alternative.
Studies show that during the week, riding a Citi Bike is faster than a taxi in New York City, most notably during peak hours of transport.
Source: Todd Schneider
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Why bikes and scooters, and why now?
A D D R E S S I N G T H E F I R S T / L A S T M I L E
Cities are getting more congested due to urban migration, but fewer people are using public transport, creating more traffic on the roads.
Bikes and scooters can connect multiple points of transit to facilitate the use of public transport and replace cars for shorter-distance trips.
T H E R I S E O F D O C K L E S S S Y S T E M S
A confluence of maturing technologies –namely mobile payments, IoT, and GPS –has allowed companies to launch dockless sharing platforms.
Dockless systems are more convenient for the user and also require lower capital costs for platform operators, making it easier to scale and maintain profitability.
1 2 3
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N F I N A L L Y S C A L E
Battery costs for electric vehicles are falling and are expected to continue to drop moving forward.
Lower manufacturing costs will make electric bikes and scooters more affordable, allowing sharing platforms to more cost-effectively scale their systems.
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0.3M2.3M
4.5M
13.0M
17.8M
22.2M
28.0M
35.0M
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bike-share trips in the US continue to climb higherBike-share trips on fixed station and dockless bike-sharing platforms in the US
Dockless systems create opportunity in the US
Source: NACTO
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Bike-share trips in the US continue to climb higherBike-share trips on fixed station and dockless bike-sharing platforms in the US
Dockless systems create opportunity in the US
Source: NACTO
0.3M 2.3M4.5M
13.0M
17.8M
22.2M
28.0M
35.0M
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dockless trips made up just 4% of bike-sharing transit in 2017
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This summer, New York City is partnering with Uber’s Jump Bikes to launch a dockless electric bike-sharing service in the Bronx and Staten Island, two areas underserviced by the prevailing platform CitiBike.
NYC partners with Jump to pilot dockless e-bike sharingN E W Y O R K C I T Y M O V E S D O C K L E S S , E L E C T R I C
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Superpedestrian is known for its Copenhagen Wheel replacement that can convert a traditional bike into an e-bike.
The company is now also developing sensors and software to help bike/scooter-sharing platforms manage their fleets.
S T A R T U P S H E L P M A N A G E T H E D O C K L E S S S Y S T E M
Funding: $22M
Select investors: General Catalyst
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Let's Talk About All Those Electric Scooters
July 1, 2018 |
Dockless system gives rise to scooter-sharing
Sources: Bloomberg, NBC News
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Bird and Lime reach unicorn status in a matter of monthsPrivate market valuations for scooter startups Bird and Lime
Scooter startup valuations skyrocket
Bird Rides reached a $1B valuation within just eight months of launching, the fastest timeline for any startup to reach unicorn status.
Lime, Bird’s largest US-based competitor, has also picked up steam in recent months, jumping to a $1.1B valuation in May from $225M in October.
$300M
$1B
$2B
$225M
$1.1B
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
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Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
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Bird
Lime
Lime launches in July 2017.
Bird launches in September 2017.
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Disclosed Funding: $133M
Select Investors: Grishin Robotics
Spin originated as an electric bike-sharing platform.
The company recently announced it was pivoting from electric bikes to electric scooters.
Spin’s co-founder Euwyn Poon has said that the company has seen 10 to 20 times higher demand for its scooters than its bikes.
The company announced in June that it was finalizing a $125M blockchain-based security token offering (STO) which is tied to company revenue rather than cryptocur
Spin pivots to scootersS C O O T E R S > B I K E S ?
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Regulation is necessary but complicatedS E T T I N G T H E B O U N D S
In the US, dockless electric scooters are now littering streets and sidewalks in a
number of cities, as e-scooters are largely unregulated.
In response, cities are firing back.
In China, lax regulation around dockless bikes allowed companies to
pile in and aggressively expand, leading to an oversupplied,
mismanaged bike-sharing ecosystem.
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Bike- and scooter-sharing is a land grab
Similar to ride hailing, bike- and scooter-sharing is a land grab.
Outside of price, users care most about convenience, which can only be achieved with efficient supply.
As new regulations cap the number of companies that can operate in a city, regulation could provide a moat if a company gets a permit early on.
S E T T I N G T H E B O U N D S
San Francisco is providing permits to just 5 scooter companies, even though 12 applied
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Why bikes and scooters, and why now?
A D D R E S S I N G T H E F I R S T / L A S T M I L E
Cities are getting more congested due to urban migration, but fewer people are using public transport, creating more traffic on the roads.
Bikes and scooters can connect multiple points of transit to facilitate the use of public transport and replace cars for shorter-distance trips.
T H E R I S E O F D O C K L E S S S Y S T E M S
A confluence of maturing technologies –namely mobile payments, IoT, and GPS –has allowed companies to launch dockless sharing platforms.
Dockless systems are more convenient for the user and also require lower capital costs for platform operators, making it easier to scale and maintain profitability.
1 2 3
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N F I N A L L Y S C A L E
Battery costs for electric vehicles are falling and are expected to continue to drop moving forward.
Lower manufacturing costs will make electric bikes and scooters more affordable, allowing sharing platforms to more cost-effectively scale their systems.
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Batteries cheaper to make, EVs easier to scaleO N T H E M A N U F A C T U R I N G F R O N T
Source: Energies
Multiple factors are expected to drive down the cost of manufacturing a lithium-ion battery:
1. Improvements in material sciences
2. Maturing of the battery market
3. Higher production of electric vehicles
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Gogoro manufacturers smart electric scooters that use swappable batteries, which lowers the cost of the scooters.
The company has also developed a battery swapping infrastructure, which reduces the number of batteries in circulation.
S T A R T U P S I N N O V A T I N G I N B A T T E R Y T E C H
Funding: $480M
Select investors: Panasonic Ventures, Sumitomo, ENGIE
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Unbundling mobility services by trip length
B I K E S & S C O O T E R S R I D E H A I L I N G C A R S H A R I N G
Micromobility Medium distance Long distance0-5 miles
60%of trips in the
US
Sources: NHTS
A L T E R N A T I V E S T O C A R O W N E R S H I P
25%of trips in the
US
15%of trips in the
US
5-15 miles 15+ miles
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Drivers for ride hailing
C O N V E N I E N C E W I T H O U T M A I N T E N A N C E
Studies suggest that at least a portion of ride sharers are opting out of car ownership for ride hailing services.
Subscription services will likely make it even more economical to turn to ride sharing.
E L E C T R I C A N D D R I V E R L E S S C A R S
Electric vehicles require much lower costs in terms of fuel and maintenance, which can help lower the cost of ride sharing.
Using self-driving cars, ride hailing companies also save on the cost of a human driver, which allows them to further lower fares.
Eventually, electric and autonomous ride hailing has the potential to be more cost effective than ownership.
1 2 3
L I M I T A T I O N S O F P U B L I C T R A N S P O R T
The majority of people using ride hailing services tend to use them at times when public transport is either infrequent or unreliable.
Ride hailing platforms can serve as a fill in for mid-length transit that public transportation is ill-equipped to handle.
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Drivers for ride hailing
C O N V E N I E N C E W I T H O U T M A I N T E N A N C E
Studies suggest that at least a portion of ride sharers are opting out of car ownership for ride hailing services.
Subscription services will likely make it even more economical to turn to ride sharing.
E L E C T R I C A N D D R I V E R L E S S C A R S
Electric vehicles require much lower costs in terms of fuel and maintenance, which can help lower the cost of ride sharing.
Using self-driving cars, ride hailing companies also save on the cost of a human driver, which allows them to further lower fares.
Eventually, electric and autonomous ride hailing has the potential to be more cost effective than ownership.
1 2 3
L I M I T A T I O N S O F P U B L I C T R A N S P O R T
The majority of people using ride hailing services tend to use them at times when public transport is either infrequent or unreliable.
Ride hailing platforms can serve as a fill in for mid-length transit that public transportation is ill-equipped to handle.
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Ride hailing complements public transport
When asked when they most often use different forms of transport, ride hailing was the most popular choice during the evening/late-night, when public transportation is typically lacking.
Source: Shared-Use Mobility Center (SUMC)
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Drivers for ride hailing
C O N V E N I E N C E W I T H O U T M A I N T E N A N C E
Studies suggest that at least a portion of ride sharers are opting out of car ownership for ride hailing services.
Subscription services will likely make it even more economical to turn to ride sharing.
E L E C T R I C A N D D R I V E R L E S S C A R S
Electric vehicles require much lower costs in terms of fuel and maintenance, which can help lower the cost of ride sharing.
Using self-driving cars, ride hailing companies also save on the cost of a human driver, which allows them to further lower fares.
Eventually, electric and autonomous ride hailing has the potential to be more cost effective than ownership.
1 2 3
L I M I T A T I O N S O F P U B L I C T R A N S P O R T
The majority of people using ride hailing services tend to use them at times when public transport is either infrequent or unreliable.
Ride hailing platforms can serve as a fill in for mid-length transit that public transportation is ill-equipped to handle.
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Hailing services reduce personal miles driven
50% of Lyft users reported driving their own car less
34% of Lyft users say they would avoid owning a car entirely because of Lyft
250,000 Lyft customers gave up personal vehicles in favor of Lyft’s service
Source: Lyft
Lyft’s annual economic report found the following in 2017:
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Ride sharing is a viable alternative to owningUsers of shared transport are
More likely to
• Postpone buying a car
• Decide not to buy a car
• Sell their cars more often
Less likely to
• Buy a new car
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Postponed buying acar
Decided not to buya car
Sold and didn'treplace a car
Bought a new car
All respondents Supersharers
Source: Shared-Use Mobility Center (SUMC)
Ride sharers more likely to shy away from ownershipSurvey by the Shared-Use Mobility Center
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“Eventually, the majority of miles traveled in the United States will be on a network like Lyft. You’ll be subscribing to a Lyft transportation plan similar to how you have a music program, maybe Spotify, or a minutes plan like you have on AT&T or Verizon.”
M O V I N G F R O M O W N E R S H I P T O S U B S C R I P T I O N
- L Y F T C E O , L O G A N G R E E N
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Lyft is testing out a subscription service in over two dozen cities, in an effort to lock in customers to its service.
Riders can either opt for the “All-Access Plan” for $299 per month and get 30 rides of up to $15 or they can subscribe to the "Commute Plan" and pay $3.99 month in exchange for 45 Lyft rides between work and home, set at one personalized price.
Early tests have shown that users will opt to take Lyft rather than other ride hailing services and will forgo public transport or walking.
Lyft tests out subscription plans to drive loyaltyB E C O M I N G T H E N E T F L I X O F R I D E H A I L I N G
Source: Lyft
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Drivers for ride hailing
C O N V E N I E N C E W I T H O U T M A I N T E N A N C E
Studies suggest that at least a portion of ride sharers are opting out of car ownership for ride hailing services.
Subscription services will likely make it even more economical to turn to ride sharing.
E L E C T R I C A N D D R I V E R L E S S C A R S
Electric vehicles require much lower costs in terms of fuel and maintenance, which can help lower the cost of ride sharing.
Using self-driving cars, ride hailing companies also save on the cost of a human driver, which allows them to further lower fares.
Eventually, electric and autonomous ride hailing has the potential to be more cost effective than ownership.
1 2 3
L I M I T A T I O N S O F P U B L I C T R A N S P O R T
The majority of people using ride hailing services tend to use them at times when public transport is either infrequent or unreliable.
Ride hailing platforms can serve as a fill in for mid-length transit that public transportation is ill-equipped to handle.
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Electric ride sharing services: a virtuous cycleAs ride sharing companies integrate more electric vehicles into their fleets, they’ll face lower costs from fuel and maintenance, allowing them to lower their fees and make ride sharing more affordable.
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
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Autonomous ride hailing will drive down costs
Autonomous technology will allow ride hailing operators such as Uber and Lyft to cut out the cost of the driver and lower fares.
Forecasts suggest that within the next 10 years, ride sharing will be more cost effective than owning a car.
Source: QuoteWizard
$13,859
$6,311
$8,469$7,598
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
As ride sharing becomes autonomous, costs will fallEstimated annual cost of ride sharing services (Seattle & Denver) vs. car ownership
Car ownership
Ride sharing
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Unbundling mobility services by trip length
B I K E S & S C O O T E R S R I D E H A I L I N G C A R S H A R I N G
Micromobility Medium distance Long distance0-5 miles
60%of trips in the
US
Source: NHTS
A L T E R N A T I V E S T O C A R O W N E R S H I P
25%of trips in the
US
15%of trips in the
US
5-15 miles 15+ miles
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Flexible car-sharing reduces need to own a car
Daimler’s car2go service allows users to rent the car in one location and drop it off in another.
A study by UC Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center found that car2go service led to a net reduction on the number of personally-owned vehicles on the road.
-9-7 -7
-5-6
-2
-3-2
-3 -1
Calgary, AB Seattle, WA Vancouver, BC Washington, D.C. San Diego, CA
Vehicle Impacts from One-Way Car-sharing
Foregone Personal Vehicle Purchases Personal Vehicles Sold
S H A R I N G I S C A R I N G
Source: UC Berkeley
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Turo is a peer-to-peer car rental marketplace operating in over 2,000 cities globally.
Turo efficiently connects people who need a car with owners whose vehicles would otherwise go unused.
It backs each reservation with a $1 million insurance policy.
M A T C H I N G O W N E R S W I T H R E N T E R S
Funding: $206M
Select investors: Google Ventures, GM Ventures, Sumitomo
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Getaround and Uber partner for P2P car rentalsU B E R E N T E R S T H E C A R - S H A R I N G G A M E
Uber is partnering with Getaround, a startup that offers peer-to-peer car sharing, to launch a P2P car rental service.
Local Uber riders will be able to access Getaround’savailable vehicles and can book and unlock rental cars through the Uber app.
Getaround has received $98M in funding to-date. Select investors include Toyota, SAIC Capital, and Menlo Ventures.
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OEMs see value in car sharing
BMW’s DriveNow Daimler’s Car2Go Volkswagen’s WEGM’s Maven
VW’s WE, an all-electric car-sharing service, will launch in Germany next year and then expand to major cities in Europe, North America and Asia beginning in 2020.
GM’s Maven offers a membership for users to reserve cars by the hour, the day, and the month for personal use. The company also offers a weekly rental program designed for ride share and delivery drivers.
Car2Go is a Daimler subsidiary, offering flexible car sharing in Europe, North America, and China. Users can use a smartphone app to locate available cars, allowing them to drop them off in any parking spot.
BMW’s DriveNow operates a car-sharing service using a fleet of vehicles manufactured by the BMW Group. The service is offered in a number of European cities. BMW offers a similar service called ReachNow in the US.
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What’s next: Integrated transportation
5151
“Just like Amazon sells third-party goods, we’re going to offer third-party transportation services. We want to be the Amazon of transportation.”
T A K I N G T H E L E A P B E Y O N D R I D E H A I L I N G
- U B E R C E O , D A R A K H O S R O W S H A H I
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In June, Uber launched a new company program called “New Modalities,” a new initiative intended to help the company become a “one-stop-shop” for a multitude of mobility services.
Car-sharing
Partnership with Getaround
April 2018
Bike-sharing
Acquisition of Jump Bikes
April 2018
Public transport
Partnership with Masabi
April 2018
Scooters
Partnership with Lime
July 2018
Uber opens its portfolio to new modes of transport
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Lyft follows suit with bike-sharing platform Motivate
Last week, Lyft entered the bike-sharing space with its acquisition of the core operations of Motivate, the largest bike-sharing operator in North America.
Motivate owns New York City’s CitiBike among other bike-sharing programs in the US.
Lyft is renaming the core business as Lyft Bikes and will control Motivate’s contracts with New York, Chicago, and six other cities.
54
MaaS Global owns Whim, a mobile app that gives users access to mobility packages on a pay-as-you-go or monthly subscription basis.
It offers users access to public and private transport, including buses, trams, trains, bikes, taxis, and hire cars, depending on the package they choose.
C O M P A N I E S M A S T E R I N G M U L T I - M O D A L
Funding: $19M
Select investors: DENSO, Toyota
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What’s next: Flying cars
5656
“We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.”
- P E T E R T H I E L , E N T R E P R E N E U R A N D I N V E S T O R
F L Y I N G C A R S : T H E A R C H E T Y P A L M O O N S H O T T E C H N O L O G Y
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Flying Cars Closer to Hitting the Skies
June 11, 2018 |
Flying cars inch toward commercialization
Sources: CNN Money, The Guardian, The New York Times, Bloomberg, Fast Company
58
Signs of traction as Boeing & Airbus get aggressiveBoth firms have launched venture arms dedicated to the flying taxi, HorizonX at Boeing and A3 at Airbus.
Boeing also acquired Aurora Flight Sciences, an autonomous aviation company, that has since partnered with Uber for flying taxi development.
Aurora’s eVTOLAirbus’s Vahana
“I think flying cars will happen faster than any of us understand.”- B O E I N G C E O D E N N I S M U I L E N B U R G
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NASA also sees future for flying cars
NASA defined a new research area called Urban Air Mobility (UAM) dedicated to managing air traffic and making it safe for vehicles to efficiently move passengers and cargo in a city.
60
Uber accelerates flying car initiatives
Uber is planning to commercially deploy air taxis by 2023.
The company has established a number of partnerships across an array of functions, most notably in vehicle manufacturing but also in air traffic control (NASA).
In terms of battery technology, Uber is developing its own long-lasting, fast-charging batteries for its electric sky taxis.
Uber’s manufacturing partners
61
Lilium is a German aviation startup developing a five-seater aircraft to take travelers from Manhattan to JFK airport.
Earlier this year the company flew its two-seater prototype.
T H E S K Y ’ S T H E L I M I T
Funding: $101M
Select investors: Tencent Holdings, Atomico
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Regulation remains a roadblock
Proper regulation and air traffic management are both critical before flying taxis can be commercialized or offered as a service.
Technology – namely AI, sensors, computer vision – capable of navigating the air is still a ways off.
Before flying taxis take off, drones for package delivery will likely be the first step.
6363
“In the future, you will be able to move anywhere, at any time and by any mode of
transport without needing to own a vehicle.”
- M A A S G L O B A L C E O , S A M P O H I E T A N E N
O V E R T A K I N G O W N E R S H I P
64
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