Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor....

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.

Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Overview of Worldwide Wind Development

By Paul Gipe

North American Energy Policy

North Americans are Dabbling Around the Edges of Renewable

Energy Policy

Little Recognition of the Crisis Facing the Continent


Skibsted Fjord, Denmark

Complacency is Not a Policy

Inaction is Not an Option


FuchskauteHöhe Westerwald, Germany

The Troika of

Meeting Demand

• Conservation

#1 Use Less

• Improve Efficiency

#2 Do More with Less

• Renewable Energy

#3 Invest in the Future

Typical Household Consumption


kWh/yr/home

Texas 14,000

Ontario 10,000

California 6,500

Netherlands 3,000

Living Better on Less

• 10 Million California Households

• 2 x 100 W Bulbs

• 2 x 25 W CF

• 150 W Savings x 10 Million

• = 1,500 MW Savings!

Many More Opportunities

• Task Lighting

• Notebooks = 90% Savings!

The Result in the Nies-Gipe Household

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Month

0

200

400

600

800kWh/month

2001

2002

5 yr Avg

The Result in California?

• 8-10% Savings

• We Coped with Crisis

• The Lights Stayed On

• Savings Permanent

• Cut Bills 20%

Swept Area per Household

TexasRenewable Tariffs Launched

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Wind Turbine Area (m2)/Household (~6.4 m/s)

Texas

Ontario

California

Germany


Colorado

California

Wind Energy Has Come of Age



Montefalcone, Italy


Galicia, Spain


Why Now?

• Wind WorksGreater Reliability

• Productivity ImprovedMore Efficient

Taller Towers

• Costs DeclinedEconomies-of-Scale

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Sales Price in US$/kW

0

200

400

600

800

1000 Yield in kWh/m2/yr

Sales Price

Yield


40 m, 500 kW

80 m, 1.8 MW

Kincardine, Ontario

Northern Ireland


We Know What Works . . .and What Doesn’t

Eole, Cap Chat

© Vortec


2006 World Wind Capacity

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Year

0

20

40

60

Megawatts (Thousands)

Europe

North America

Asia


World Wind Capacity 2006~70,000 MW

Europe66%

North America17%

Africa0%

Asia16%

South America1%


2006 World Wind Capacity

12,000 MW 48,000 MW

12,000 MW


European Wind Capacity 2006

2,100

2,000

1,600

800

3,100

20,700

1,400

1,700

650

600

11,600

80300


North American Wind Capacity2006

2,250

11 50 2,800

400

950

6

320

850

450300

50035

800

350

100

455030050

70

400

180

175

45150

175


Wind Energy is a Real BusinessUS$35 Billion in 2006O&M3%

Electricity Sales32%

Project Development65%


Wind Growing Rapidly2002-2006

• Germany; ~2,400 MW/yr20,000 MW by 2006

30,000 MW by 2012

• Spain: ~1,700 MW/yr

• USA: ~1,500 MW/yr

• Growth: 20%-40%/yr


US-Canada Wind Market


80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

MW/Year

Canada

USA

Production Tax Credit (Subsidy)


North American MarketMajor Players

• USAFlorida Power & Light (50% of Market)Scottish PowerÉlectricité de France (EnXco)Eon?

• CanadaTrans Alta (Utility)Suncor (Oil, Tar Sands)Enbridge (Gas)

North American MarketMajor Suppliers

• USAGE!VestasSiemans (Bonus)Suzlon (India)

• CanadaGEVestasEnerconOther (Vensys)


Why Wind?

• Reduces Use of Fossil & Nuclear Fuels

• Most Cost-Effective of New Renewables

• Relatively Benign


Wind is Modular

• Quickly Installed

• When Needed

• As Needed

• Where Needed

• By Anyone

Tehachapi, CaliforniaPaul Gipe, wind-works.org

Wind is Flexible• Scale

Big or Small Projects

• LocationNear or Far

• TimeShort Lead Times

• OwnershipLocal or Absentee


Wind Energy’s Benefits

• Clean & Green (Mostly)No SOx, NOx, or CO2

• RenewableNet Positive Energy Balance (4-6 months)

• Domestic: Not Subject to Embargo• Does Not Consume Water• Modular = Flexible• . . . and Can be Removed


Wind Energy’s Impacts

• Aesthetics or Intrusiveness• Erosion & Scarring from Roads

Length, Width, Number and Slope

• Shadow Flicker & Disco Effect• Climate?• Noise--They are Audible• Wildlife

Habitat DisruptionBird & Bat Kills: Collisions, Electrocutions


Noise• Distinctly Audible

They Are Not Silent

They Will Be Heard

• Great Reductions in Noise

• But Noise is Constant--Ever-PresentExcept During Calms

• Small Turbines Are NoisiestFor Their Size

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Air 303-403 Noise

Bergey Noise

Noise Footprint

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66 dB

A (

Leq)

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Wind Speed (mph)

Air 403 Noise at Wulf Test Field

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgPaul Gipe & Assoc.

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68

dB

A (

Leq)

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Wind Speed (mph)

Ambient Charging

Air 403 SPL Summary Wulf Test Field


Calculated & Measured Noise EmissionsSource Sound Power Level at 8 m/s

1 10 100

Diameter (meters)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120Sound Power Level dBA

1980s 1990s

1999 Small

Micro H40

L=22 log D + 72

L=22 log D + 65

BWC 850

H40

AirX

Air303

Noise Source Strength

Sound Power Level (Emission Source Strength) for Selected Wind Turbines, andEstimated Distance to 45 dBA

Distance to@ 8 m/s1TowerRatedSwept45 dBA2dBAHeightPowerAreaDiameter

ftmLeqftmkWm2ftm160508866200.3213.81.2Air 403110358566200.9582.4Whisper H4031095938927301334313Furländer4101259610532802545918Lagerwey 18/80660200100207635001,25713140Enercon E40740225102220671,6503,42121666Vestas V66

1. Sound Power Levels increase with increasing wind speed.2. Estimated using IEA model and atmospheric absorption.

Noise Community Response

noise than that indicated here.and neighbors could be either more or less sensitive to wind turbineNote: This table was derived for noise sources other than wind turbines,

Community Response to Noise from Sources Other Than Wind Turbines

Estimated Community ResponseAmount by whichNoise ExceedsBackground Level

DescriptionCategorydBNo observed reactionNone0Sporadic complaintsLittle5Widespread complaintsMedium10Threats of actionStrong15Vigorous actionVery Strong20

Source: Harvey Hubbard, Kevin Shepherd, NASA, 1990.

Noise LimitsSelected Noise Limits, Sound Pressure Levels in dBA

RuralResidentialMixedCommercial 50556065DayGermany35404550Night404550LeqDayNetherlands303540Night4540Leq Denmark1

45L50High speedEngland 2

40L50Low speed60606575L50DayMinnesota50506575L50Night65657080L10DayMinnesota55557080L10Night4545L8.3Kern County, Calif.3

45L90Riverside County, Calif.6050L90Palm Springs, Calif.4

1. Not to exceed 45 dBA beyond 400 m from wind turbine.2. L50 approx. 350 m from the nearest turbine.3. L8.3., not to exceed 50 dBA.4. 50 dBA if lot is actually used as residential.

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Birds & Bats• Before & After Studies

of Big Projects

• Studies Necessaryfor Small Projects?

Cros de Gerand, France

Birds & Bats• Bats

Appalachian Mts & Bufalo Ridge (MN)

Bat Conservation Society Report

Cause Unkown & Further Research In Doubt

US Wind Industry Uncooperative

Seasonal Shut Down Possible

• Birds, Altamont PassIssue Unresolved

California Wind Industry Uncooperative

Disaster for Raptors & Wind Energy

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Birds Killed in the Altamont Pass

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Source: Developing Methods to Reduce Bird Mortality in the Altamont Pass WRA, August 2004, P500-04-052.

Per Year Low High

Total 1,766 4,721

Raptors 881 1,300

Raptors/MW 1.5 2.2

• Eliminate Horizontal Perches & Roosts

No Lattice Towers with Horizontal Members

• Avoid Heavy Concentrations of Birds

• Mortality Rate Function of Swept Area,

Not Rotor RPM!

Both Small & Large Turbines

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor....

Documents

Transcript of Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor....