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DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation, which are utilised expressly at the user’s own risk. In particular, this presentation and the information and materials in this presentation are not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments, or making any recommendation or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of, any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any precious metal related transaction is appropriate or suitable for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the information or materials in this presentation. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial, legal, tax and accounting advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decisions. This presentation does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments.


Platinum


Platinum in 2013

• Forecast deficit to grow to 605,000 oz

• Global supplies show slight improvement on 2012

• Modest reduction in autocatalyst demand more

than offset by rebound in industrial sectors

• Gross jewellery demand marginally down on 2012

• Strong growth in physical investment

• Autocatalyst recycling up sharply


Platinum supplies

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change South Africa Russia North America Zimbabwe Others Total

4,090 800 310 340 110

5,650

4,120 780 315 400 125

5,740

0.7 (2.5)

1.6 17.6 13.6 1.6


South Africa Platinum supplies

3500

4000

4500

5000

Net changes 2012 to 2013 ‘000 oz

- 115 No change

+ 300

- 300

+ 145

4,120 4,090


Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Industrial Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement

6,050 3,190 1,755 2,420

655 7,905

(1,830) (25)

6,480 3,125 2,050 2,480

460 8.905

(2,045) 430

7.1 (2.0) 16.8 2.5

(29.8) 2.4

11.7


0

2

4

6

8

10

Europe Japan N. Am China Rest

World light duty diesel vehicle production

2012 2013

million units

0

1

2

3

4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pt demand in emissions control catalysts

Non-road Heavy dutyLight diesel Light gasoline

million oz


Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement

6,050 3,190 2,780

655 7,905

(1,830) (25)

6,480 3,125 2,740

460 8.905

(2,045) 430

7.1 (2.0) (1.4)

(29.8) 2.4

11.7


Gross platinum jewellery demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

China Others

million oz


Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Industrial Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement

6,050 3,190 2,780 1,605 2,420

655 7,905

(1,830) (25)

6,480 3,125 2,740 1,790 2,480

460 8.905

(2,045) 430

7.1 (2.0) (1.4) 11.5 2.5

(29.8) 2.4

11.7


Platinum industrial demand

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & other

million oz


Platinum demand


6,050 3,190 2,780 1,605

455 7,905

(1,830) (25)

6,480 3,125 2,740 1,790

765 8.905

(2,045) 430

7.1 (2.0) (1.4) 11.5 68.1 2.4

11.7


Platinum ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

London ETFS ZKB US ETFS Others Absa Price

million oz US$/oz

2007 2008 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013


Platinum supply and demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Gross demand Recycling Stock Movement

5,650 8,030

(2,040) (25)

5,740 8,420

(2,075) 430

1.6 4.9 1.7


Primary and secondary platinum supply

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Primary Secondary Ratio

primary to secondary ratio million oz


Platinum supply and demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Gross demand Recycling Net demand Stock movement

5,650 8,030

(2,040) 5,990 (340)

5,740 8,420

(2,075) 6,345 (605)

1.6 4.9 1.7 5.9


Palladium


Palladium in 2013

• Market in reduced deficit of 740,000 oz

• Primary supplies marginally down on 2012, due

to reduction in Russian state stock sales

• Autocatalyst demand at another record high

• Weaker industrial and jewellery demand

• Net physical investment significantly down


Palladium supplies

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

South Africa Russian mining Russian stocks North America Others

million oz


Palladium supplies

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change South Africa Russia primary Russia stocks North America Zimbabwe Others Total

2,320 2,630

260 895 265 160

6,530

2,350 2,600

100 930 310 140

6,430

1.3 (1.1)

(61.5) 3.9

17.0 (12.5) (1.5)


Palladium demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Industrial Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement

7,355 6,705 2,465

595 1,095 9,735

(1,850) (530)

7,360 6,970 2,480

505 (565) 8,450

(2,345) 1,255

0.1 4.0

(0.6) (15.1)

(151.6) (13.2)

26.8


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Europe Japan N. Am China Rest

World light duty gasoline vehicle

production

2012 2013

million units

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pd demand in emissions control

catalysts

Non-road Heavy dutyLight diesel Light gasoline

million oz


Palladium demand

‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement

7,355 6,705

445 1,095 9,735

(1,850) (530)

7,360 6,970

390 (565) 8,450

(2,345) 1,255

0.1 4.0

(12.4) (151.6) (13.2)

26.8


Gross palladium jewellery demand

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

China Others

million oz


Palladium demand


6,050 6,705

445 2,350 2,420

655 7,905

(1,830) (25)

6,480 6,970

390 2,195 2,480

460 8.905

(2,045) 430

7.1 4.0

(12.4) (6.6)

2.5 (29.8)

2.4 11.7


Palladium industrial demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chemical Dental Electrical Other

million oz


Palladium demand


7,355 6,705

445 2,350

470 9,735

(1,850) (530)

7,360 6,970

390 2,195

75 8,450

(2,345) 1,255

0.1 4.0

(4.1)((12.4) (6.6)

(84.0) (13.2)

26.8


Palladium ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

London ETFS ZKB US ETFS Others Price

million oz

2007 2009 2008 2011 2010 2013 2012

US$/oz


Primary and secondary palladium supply (excludes Russian stock sales)

0

2

4

6

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Primary Secondary ratio

million oz primary to

secondary ratio


Palladium supply and demand


6,530 9,970

(2,290) (7,680

(1,150)

6,430 9,630

(2,460) 7,170 (740)

(1.5) (3.4)

7.4 (6.6)


Rhodium


Rhodium supply and demand


721 974

(252) (722

(1)

721 1,016 (281)

735 (14)

0 4.3

(11.5) 1.8


Outlook


Platinum outlook

• Limited potential for expansion in mine supplies

• Autocatalyst recycling should increase further

• Industrial demand expected to grow in all key sectors

• Autocatalyst demand rising in all diesel applications

• Jewellery demand retains scope for growth

• Third consecutive year of deficit likely in 2014


1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

$/oz

2011 2012 2013

High $1580

Ave $1465

Low $1360

Platinum price forecast: the next six months


Palladium outlook

• Primary supplies to fall in 2014

• Autocatalyst recycling to show continued growth

• Autocatalyst demand will rise with vehicle production

• Further decline in industrial and jewellery demand

• Market facing another significant deficit in 2014 with

or without an Absa ETF


400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

$/oz

2011 2012 2013

Palladium price forecast: the next six months

High $815

Low $680

Ave $760


#PlatinumInt2013

DISCLAIMER - Johnson · PDF fileDISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC ... respect of reliance placed...

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