DISAT-ContributionDISAT-ContributionR. Ferrise, M. Moriondo and M. BindiR. Ferrise, M. Moriondo and M. Bindi

1. What are the main objectives 1. What are the main objectives of our study?of our study?

– Select/Test impact models to simulate different Select/Test impact models to simulate different Mediterranean ecosystem tasks:Mediterranean ecosystem tasks:

• Forestry - damageForestry - damage due to forest fire due to forest fire • Agriculture - lossesAgriculture - losses due to water and heat stresses due to water and heat stresses

– Apply the selected models Apply the selected models to estimate a range of to estimate a range of impacts using the probabilistic scenarios developed impacts using the probabilistic scenarios developed in WP1.2, WP2A.3 and WP2B3-5in WP1.2, WP2A.3 and WP2B3-5

– DISAT research activity matches all DISAT research activity matches all the three main objectives of WP6.2 the three main objectives of WP6.2 for months 25-42:for months 25-42:

• selecting, calibrating and testingselecting, calibrating and testing impact impact modelsmodels

• constructing impact response surfacesconstructing impact response surfaces to evaluate the impacts of climate changeto evaluate the impacts of climate change

• defining critical thresholdsdefining critical thresholds for for preliminary probabilistic estimates of future preliminary probabilistic estimates of future climate impactsclimate impacts

2. How do our objectives relate 2. How do our objectives relate to the Work Package to the Work Package

objectives ?objectives ?

– Last 12 monthsLast 12 months3.13.1 Complete the testing and calibration of Complete the testing and calibration of

impact modelsimpact models for use in estimating future for use in estimating future risks of climate changerisks of climate change

3.23.2 Develop a simple statistical modelDevelop a simple statistical model that that emulates process-based crop yield models emulates process-based crop yield models (e.g. Sirius)(e.g. Sirius)

3.33.3 Create preliminary yield response Create preliminary yield response surfacessurfaces altering the baseline climate altering the baseline climate

3. What have we achieved so 3. What have we achieved so far?far?

• Durum Wheat model Durum Wheat model Calibration (i.e. SIRIUS-Calibration (i.e. SIRIUS-Quality):Quality):

– Sites:Sites: 3 3

– Experimental data:Experimental data: 4 years (2000- 4 years (2000-2004) from Experimental Institute for 2004) from Experimental Institute for CerealsCereals

– Cultivar:Cultivar: Creso Creso

– Model parameters:Model parameters: anthesis and yields anthesis and yields

3. What have we achieved so 3. What have we achieved so far?far?

(3.1 Complete the testing and calibration of impact (3.1 Complete the testing and calibration of impact models)models)

Milano

Roma Foggia

Yield (Kg ha-1)

y = 0.911x + 405.43

R2 = 0.6019

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500

Anthesis date (Julian Day)

y = 0.9555x + 5.0538

R2 = 0.8568

100

110

120

130

140

150

100 110 120 130 140 150

1.1.Model Validation for Model Validation for the application the application domain:domain:

– SIRIUS was tested on 6 SIRIUS was tested on 6 grid points (50 Km X 50 grid points (50 Km X 50 Km)Km) over the Mediterranean over the Mediterranean Basin using:Basin using:

• Daily climatic dataDaily climatic data : from : from MARS Project databaseMARS Project database

• Soil properties:Soil properties: from the from the Eusoils databaseEusoils database

• Yield Data:Yield Data: from from EUROSTAT database.EUROSTAT database.

3. What have we achieved so 3. What have we achieved so far?far?

(3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates (3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop yield SIRIUS-Quality model)process-based crop yield SIRIUS-Quality model)

Andalucia

Provence

Veneto

Lazio

Sicilia Peloponnisos

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Observed Yield (Mg ha-1)

Sim

ula

ted

Yie

ld (

Mg

ha

-1)Yield (t ha-1)

  Observed Simulated

Average 3.08 3.45

SD 0.986 1.169

CV 0.323 0.313

Pearson 0.66

2.2.Develop simple statistical models that emulates process-based Develop simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop yield SIRIUS model crop yield SIRIUS model (following the approach proposed by (following the approach proposed by Olesen et al., 2006)Olesen et al., 2006)

a)a) For each of the six grid points For each of the six grid points SIRIUS was run for the combinations of 8 climate SIRIUS was run for the combinations of 8 climate scenarios with 4 different soil types and 5 N-rates (160 runs per grid)scenarios with 4 different soil types and 5 N-rates (160 runs per grid)

b)b) A A neural network back-propagation modelneural network back-propagation model was trained and tested for emulating was trained and tested for emulating the SIRIUS outputs:the SIRIUS outputs:

• Network layersNetwork layers: 3: 3

• Input nodesInput nodes: 7 (variables: SWC, N level, Ta, Pa, T(JFM), T(AMJ)): 7 (variables: SWC, N level, Ta, Pa, T(JFM), T(AMJ))

• Hidden layer nodesHidden layer nodes: 20: 20

• OutputOutput: 1: 1

• Testing dataTesting data: 30%: 30%

3. What have we achieved so 3. What have we achieved so far?far?

(3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates (3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop yield SIRIUS model)process-based crop yield SIRIUS model)

NN model structure

Testing results

• Yield response surfaces were estimated by altering Yield response surfaces were estimated by altering baseline climate in a grid box of Southern France:baseline climate in a grid box of Southern France:

– Grid box:Grid box: France 43.6 N, 5.0 E France 43.6 N, 5.0 E– Climatic data changes:Climatic data changes: Precipitation: -20% to +20%, Temperature: -2°C Precipitation: -20% to +20%, Temperature: -2°C

to +6°C to +6°C

– COCO22 concentration scenarios concentration scenarios: (353, 450, 550 and 750 ppm): (353, 450, 550 and 750 ppm)

– Soil Water CapacitySoil Water Capacity: 115 mm: 115 mm– FertilizationFertilization: 100 Kg N ha: 100 Kg N ha-1-1

3. What have we achieved so 3. What have we achieved so far?far?

(3.3 Create preliminary yield response surfaces altering (3.3 Create preliminary yield response surfaces altering the baseline climate for both models)the baseline climate for both models)

50 km

• TasksTasks– Task 6.2.8:Task 6.2.8: Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops – Task 6.2.9:Task 6.2.9: Preliminary scenario impacts and risk assessment from available climate projections Preliminary scenario impacts and risk assessment from available climate projections

for selected models of cropsfor selected models of crops– Task 6.2.10:Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact

models for crops and forest fire from available climate projectionsmodels for crops and forest fire from available climate projections– Task 6.2.11:Task 6.2.11: Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles Prediction System to impact Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles Prediction System to impact

models for estimating risks of extremes and risks of impactsmodels for estimating risks of extremes and risks of impacts

• DeliverablesDeliverables

– Deliverable 6.7:Deliverable 6.7: Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models. scenario approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models. Due Feb 2007 Due Feb 2007 (Month 30)(Month 30)

– Deliverable 6.8:Deliverable 6.8: Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to agriculture and forest. agriculture and forest. Due Feb 2007 (Month 30)Due Feb 2007 (Month 30)

– Deliverable 6.13:Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Feb 2008 (Month 42)Due Feb 2008 (Month 42)

• MilestonesMilestones

– Milestone 6.12:Milestone 6.12: Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results. information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results. Due Due April 2007 (Month 32)April 2007 (Month 32)

– Milestone 6.13:Milestone 6.13: Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models. Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models. Due Aug Due Aug 2007 (Month 36)2007 (Month 36)

– Milestone 6.14:Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models. using calibrated impact models. Due Feb 2008 (Month 42)Due Feb 2008 (Month 42)

4.4. Which of the WP 6.2 outputs Which of the WP 6.2 outputs do we plan to contribute?do we plan to contribute?

– Next 18 months (months 25-42)Next 18 months (months 25-42)•Complete the development simple statistical modelsComplete the development simple statistical models

that emulates process-based crop yield models for all the that emulates process-based crop yield models for all the three selected crops (i.e. olive, grapevine and durum three selected crops (i.e. olive, grapevine and durum wheat)wheat)

• Create yield response surfacesCreate yield response surfaces for all the three for all the three crops for a pilot study areacrops for a pilot study area

•Define critical thresholds of impacts and obtain Define critical thresholds of impacts and obtain preliminary estimates of the likelihood of exceeding preliminary estimates of the likelihood of exceeding these thresholdsthese thresholds using probabilistic information about using probabilistic information about future climatefuture climate

5. What are we planning to do 5. What are we planning to do in the next 18 months ?in the next 18 months ?

6. What are our main questions 6. What are our main questions requiring discussion in this requiring discussion in this

meeting?meeting?

• Define and collect the climate data that will be used:– to create crop yield response surfaces– to obtain preliminary estimates of the

probabilistic impact of future climate change on crop yields