Disaster vs. Systems Engineering INCOSE Monthly Meeting 13 September 2006 Presented by: Bob Pierson.

Disaster vs. Systems Engineering

INCOSE Monthly Meeting13 September 2006

Presented by: Bob Pierson

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• A Discussion– Based Partially on the special

section of INCOSE Insighto July 2006, Vol. 8 Issue 3

o Sponsored by the INCOSE Anti-Terrorism International Working Group (ATIWG)

– Major natural disasters and terrorist activities: o “What can the discipline of

systems engineering contribute to mitigate the damages caused by such disasters and possibly even to prevent them?” – William F. Mackey

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• History and Evolution of the ATIWG» Based on William Mackey, “A History of INCOSE’s Activities in Public Interest

Issues”

– 2001 (early): INCOSE Revitalization Project established to:o Harness talents of foremost experts across SEo Address public interest challenges

“An unsolved problem that has negative effects on people of various cultures and geographical locations and that is amenable to the application of systems engineering”

– Sept 2001: Anti-Terrorism International Working Group chartered– 2002: First Panel at Las Vegas Symposium: “The Role of Systems

Engineering in Combating Terorism”– 2003: 2nd Panel at Arlington Symposium: “The Role of Systems Engineering

in Combating FUTURE Acts of Terrorism” plus models, simulation & analysis

– 2004: 3rd Panel at Toulouse Symposium: “Recent Systems Development And Legal Efforts to Secure National Borders in the U.S., Europe, Israel, and Iraq” plus papers, tutorial at Mid-Atlantic Conference

– 2005: 4th Panel at Rochester Symposium: “Will the International Community’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy Reduce or Eradicate Terrorism?” plus Root Cause Analysis

– 2006: 5th Panel at Orlando Symposium: “Are Natural Dissaters Similar or Dissimilar to Terrorist Attacks?”B

road

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efin

ition

of t

he Is

sue?

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• Recent Terrorist Events» William Mackey, “A Recent History of Terrorism and Natural Disasters”

Recent events… ”demonstrate that terrorist groups have the ability to perform systematic analyses and use sophisticated systems – built by industrialized countries – against random innocent people at virtually any location on the globe.” – William Mackey, “A History of INCOSE’s Activities in Public Interest Issues”

Still a Small Threat Compared to Daily Hazards?- U.S. gun deaths are about twice this every year- U.S. accidental deaths are about twice this every month- U.S. cancer deaths equal this about every two days

But Fear/Effect Ratio is Very High!

?

I apologize here. These are very emotional topics and many of us knew or lost acquaintances. By adopting a somewhat flippant tone, I may offend. But my intention is not to diminish the horror or the loss, but to add some perspective.

Better SE Through Terror?

think of border drug tunnels, an outstanding

SE success?

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• Selected Natural Disasters» William Mackey, “A Recent History of Terrorism and Natural Disasters”

“Natural” Disasters?

>10

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s

>1 M

dea

ths

>100

K de

aths

>10K

dea

ths

>1K

deat

hs

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• How Are Terrorism & Natural Disaster Similar / Dissimilar?» Joe Carl, “Anti-Terrorism International Working Group Panel 2006 – Position Paper: How

Are Natural Disasters Similar or Dissimilar to Terrorist Attacks? – A Debate on the Issues”

? ?

?

?

?? ?

?

?

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• Behavioral Response Model(s)» From Joseph Carl, “Natural Calamities and Terrorism Events Have Similar Consequences”,

– Generalized From William Mackey’s Terrorism-Specific Model

– Different Causes (mother nature, human intention)

– Common Consequences

– Three Responses

CARL’s RESPONSE MODELMACKEY’s RESPONSE MODEL

Nice model. But, how to allocate limited resources among the three responses?And from which other problem do we take the resources?

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• A Discussion– Major natural disasters and terrorist activities:

o “What can the discipline of systems engineering contribute to mitigate the damages caused by such disasters and possibly even to prevent them?” – William F. Mackey, theme editor

o “We believe that our objective, disciplined approach to problem analysis limits the emotional response to such difficult challenges and offers insights that inform government decision makers.” – William F. Mackey

decision maker

insights fearsSE

Not sure I’m as optimistic…

provides

everybody else

insights fears

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• The Speaker’s Personal Perspectives (Gloom & Doom 101?)– Two Key Factors

o The Limits of Risk Management Risk Is Limitless; Resources Are Note

o Unintended Consequence Our Successful Systems Make Us Vulnerable

– Let’s Start From a Geophysical Perspective…

– Before Getting to Humans… And Godzilla

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• The Limits of Risk Management– Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Natural Disasters

EARTHQUAKES:Motion x10; Release Energy x32; per 1.0 magnitude

We think we can localize. Can we really?

60% of Memphis leveled?

1/frequency (years)

106 105 104 103 102 101 100

2

3

7

6

5

4

8 Great

Major

Strong

Moderate

Light

Ear

thq

uake

Mag

nitu

de

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• The Limits of Risk Management– Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Natural Disasters (concluded)

BOLIDES (METEORS):Similar log-log scaling with extreme events known in the geologic record

No hope of localizing within a latitude band

1/frequency (years)

100 102 104 106 108

K-T Impact

Meteor Crater, AZ

Annual Event ~ 20 kilotons

Meg

aton

s T

NT

Equ

iva

lent

10-2

100

102

104

106

global catastrophe

THE PROBLEM IS:likelihood(event)*likelihood(you dying) goes up with scale of event

So, rationally, we would invest our resources addressing the most unlikely event? Unlikely!

108

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• The Limits of Risk Management– Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Human-Induced Disasters

o Do Human-Caused Disasters Have a Similar Risk-Likelihood Curve?

o And, Even Worse, Is The Curve Not Static?

HUMAN-CAUSED DISASTERS:Seem to populate a similar likelihood vs consequence curve

BUT, unlike natural causes: Seem to be accelerating And increasing in severity

There is an underlying exponential growth curve that affects our ability & willingness to do intentional harm and our likelihood of creating unintentional consequences.

1/frequency (years)100 10-2 10-4 10-6 10-8

10-2

Mag

nitu

de o

f H

uman

Dis

aste

r

100

102

104

106

108

19002000

2100

?

collapse of civilization

invention of reality TV

bad hair day

evil empire

death star

Again, I apologize here. Famine and genocide are not equivalent to bad TV. The humor, again, is to keep some perspective.

THE 2nd PROBLEM (HUMAN-INDUCED) IS:likelihood(event)*likelihood(you dying) accelerates with time

So, rationally, we would focus our resources averting the very worst imaginable human catastrophes and learn to accept increased day to day insecurity in return? Good luck!

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• Unintended Consequences– Our Successful Systems Make Us Vulnerable

o Or…terrorists need cell phones…

o power grids, water supplies, global trade…

CHUANG-TZU:Was asked how it could be that an evil despot had wrecked a formerly well-run and respected Chinese state by taking it over and engaging in a campaign of war and terror. Chuang Tzu’s reply: because it was well run.

In trying to keep our treasure, we bind it up with heavy locks and chains. But if a big enough thief sees the opportunity, they’ll pick up the whole thing and their only worry is that the locks and chains might give as they cart it all away!

Recent events… ”demonstrate that terrorist groups have the ability to perform systematic analyses and use sophisticated systems – built by industrialized countries – against random innocent people at virtually any location on the globe.” – William Mackey, “A History of INCOSE’s Activities in Public Interest Issues”

THE GODZILLA FACTOR:Unintended consequence & fear establish a human negative feedback (now heavily exploited by terrorists): In the original Gojira (Godzilla) movie, badly deployed systems engineering creates/unleashes the monster unintentionally through nuclear testing and the hero scientist (systems engineer) is forced to make the impossible decision whether to unleash a yet more deadly technology (with yet worse unintended consequences?) in order to destroy the monster…

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SE

To succeed, we must address the human condition: (1) limitless risk vs. limited resources(2) unintended consequences vs precaution(3) human fear as a root causeIs this an SE task?

Disaster vs. Systems Engineering INCOSE Monthly Meeting 13 September 2006 Presented by: Bob Pierson.

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Transcript of Disaster vs. Systems Engineering INCOSE Monthly Meeting 13 September 2006 Presented by: Bob Pierson.