Disaster Risk Reduction Under Current Disaster Risk Reduction Under Current and Changing Climate Conditions:and Changing Climate Conditions: Important Roles for the NMHSsImportant Roles for the NMHSs

Heather AuldAdaptation and Impacts Research DivisionEnvironment CanadaToronto, Canada

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Great Natural Disasters Worldwide 1950 – 2006Economic and insured losses

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Adaptation Deficit

Trend economic losses

Economic losses (2006 values)

Insured losses (2006 values)

Trend insured losses

Rising Disaster Losses GloballyRising Disaster Losses Globally

Source: EM-DAT : The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. http://www.em-dat.net, UCL - Brussels, Belgium

Increasing trends have been most dramatic for weather-related eventsGlobal Trends in

Frequency of Major Natural Disasters

Biological

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Adaptation D

eficit

Number of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 – 2005

Causes of Rising Natural DisastersCauses of Rising Natural Disasters

Disasters and the Growing “Adaptation Deficit”Disasters and the Growing “Adaptation Deficit”

Factors driving the “adaptation deficit”:

Developed/developing countries have different drivers Increased wealth; More insured property; Greater populations Poverty; Development in higher risk locations Aging infrastructure; Sub-standard infrastructure Urbanization – dependence on infrastructure services

Nil or poor adaptation = Rising losses from hydro-meteorological hazards

Unhealthy ecosystems can exacerbate some hazards to the point that “by degrading forests, engineering rivers, filling in wetlands, and destabilizing the climate, we are unraveling the strands of a complex ecological safety net.” J. Abramovitz (2001)

Vulnerability is also linked to theVulnerability is also linked to the Quality of the Environment Quality of the Environment

Trends in number of counties with mud and rock slides in Western China (1800-2000)

Environmental Degradation and DisastersEnvironmental Degradation and Disasters

Encouraging Signs… Encouraging Signs… Disaster Risk ManagementDisaster Risk Management

Because the costs of cleaning up and restoring communities after disasters is so high, some countries are closely looking as all aspects of disaster risk-management planning

NMHSs have important products and services to contribute to disaster risk management.

Forecasts & Warnings; improved Warning systems

RISKRISKMANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Hazards, Climaticdesign values

Hazards: Emergency Planning

CRISESCRISESMANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Special forecasts; Risk guidance

Disaster/Emergency Management SystemsDisaster/Emergency Management Systems

Mitigation/Prevention of Risks Hydrometeorological information for Design & Planning Learning from past failures and disasters

Preparedness Emergency and risk reduction planning Improving warning and emergency response systems

Proactive – Reducing Vulnerabilities: Forewarned is Forearmed

Before the Disaster:Before the Disaster: Risk ManagementRisk Management

Emergency Response Timely and accurate weather warnings leading to action Monitoring and detection of hazards

Recovery Hazards risk guidance to rebuild communities

Reactive – Moving from Weather Prediction to Risk Prediction

During and After the Disaster: During and After the Disaster: Crises ManagementCrises Management

Reduction/Mitigation of Risks Climatic and hydrological design values for codes & standards Atmospheric and hydrological Hazards information Monitoring; Detection of changing climate/weather extremes Forensic studies--learning from disasters

Emergency Preparedness Hazards information for emergency and risk reduction planning Science to identify the most significant events, impacts Improved weather warning criteria; sensitive to responders Vigilance; Warnings linked to “Impacts Thresholds”

Proactive – Reducing Vulnerabilities: Forewarned is forearmed

BeforeBefore the Disaster: the Disaster: Risk ManagementRisk Management

Ideally, infrastructure is designed for selected return period climate extremes …

Warnings are a last line of defense… after other prevention solutions, such as engineering design practices, are applied to reduce the risk of an event below an acceptable level.

Proactive Design: Extremes and Proactive Design: Extremes and Infrastructure DesignInfrastructure Design

Design Hourly Wind SpeedsDesign Hourly Wind Speeds (km/hr)(km/hr)

National Building Code of Canada and various CSA standards

50 year return period Design Wind Speeds (km/hr)50 year return period Design Wind Speeds (km/hr)

Proactive: Climatic Design InformationClimatic Design Information

“small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure” … beyond critical thresholds

Climate Change could significantly impact infrastructure, depending on robustness of existing climatic design values

Disasters, Warnings and Impacts Thresholds…Disasters, Warnings and Impacts Thresholds…Small Increases = Escalating Damages above Critical ThresholdsSmall Increases = Escalating Damages above Critical Thresholds

Some structure are more vulnerable than others:

The quality of construction and maintenance of structures will strongly influence community vulnerability to hazards

Quality of Structures and Weather Impacts ThresholdsQuality of Structures and Weather Impacts Thresholds

Trends in Windstorm DisastersTrends in Windstorm Disasters

EM-DAT International Database – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Engineering codes and standards need updated climatic design values

Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years.

GCM Projected Changes in 24-hour GCM Projected Changes in 24-hour Return Period RainfallsReturn Period Rainfalls

10 20 40 80

Recurrence time (years)

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1985~ 75 mm 1985

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40 year return period

80 year return period

Risk planning requires understanding of frequencies of hydrometeorological events and their expected changes

(Hurricane Katrina damages)

Although natural disasters are not always predictable, they are most often generally foreseeable …

Proactive Emergency Response PlanningProactive Emergency Response Planning

Planning for risks…

This website is under continuous development.Please visit us again, often.

Important Notices and Disclaimers

What is it? What data is in it? How can I use it? Look for many places Look for a place by name

This website presents background material and map data for atmospheric hazards in Ontario. It has been created by the Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, in cooperation with Emergency Management Ontario, to assist municipalities in conducting their hazard identification and risk assessments as required by Ontario's Emergency Management Act.

www.hazards.ca

Ontario’s Emergency Management Act (Bill 148)

Part of assessment involves assessment of risks to weather hazards:

Fog Lightning Heavy Rain Heavy Snow Hurricanes Wind Storms Extreme Heat/Cold Ice Storms Drought Tornadoes

Extreme Air Quality Events

Weather Hazard Risk AssessmentWeather Hazard Risk Assessment

Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)

Source: EMO, 2003

Community Risk Assessment GridCommunity Risk Assessment Grid

Severe Thunderstorms: HailSevere Thunderstorms: Hail

Extreme Snowfall Days/Year Exceeding 25cm (1971-2000)

Observed Tornadoes in Southern Ontario Observed Tornadoes in Southern Ontario 1981-20031981-2003

Parameters: 

Moderate-High Hail FrequenciesAND

Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies

Hail Frequency in Ontario between 0.50 and 2.00 # Days/Year andTornado Frequency in Ontario between 0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year

Atmospheric Hazards - Selection ResultsMap: .Ontario South Boreal (2300) Selected 586 places on this map

Ozone & Hot Days

Ontario MOE, 2004

Health issues: Health issues: Heat Waves and Air QualityHeat Waves and Air Quality

Projected Number of “Extreme Heat Alert” Daysfrom the Hottest Weather Type

2050s, 2080s

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7.47.0

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Montreal Ottawa Toronto Windsor

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ADAPTATION: Heat Alert and Response systems help protect vulnerable populations

Emergency Response (Special) Forecast support for emergency response Consideration of cumulative and sequential events Vigilance or Tiered Warning systems – link to impacts Timely and accurate weather warnings; dissemination Warnings that imply actions

Recovery Forecast support Hazards risk guidance to rebuild communities

Reactive – During and After the Disaster Moving from Weather Prediction to Risk Prediction Warnings Seek Actions

During and After the Disaster: During and After the Disaster: Crises Crises ManagementManagement

1. failure of forecasting 2. ignorance of prevailing vulnerability 3. failure to communicate threat accurately or in

sufficient time4. failure by the recipients to understand or

believe the warning or to take suitable action.

Failures of Early Warning Failures of Early Warning Programs Programs

Planning Effective Early Warning SystemsPlanning Effective Early Warning Systems

The success of a Warning is measured by what actions people take.

• Warnings need terminology relevant to the decision-maker and messages that suggest appropriate actions.

• People are more likely to heed and act upon warnings when they have been educated about their risks and have prepared warning-reaction plans.

Warnings and Clear CommunicationsWarnings and Clear Communications

Warnings need to have a meaning that is shared between those who issue the forecasts and the decision-makers that they are intended to inform. This requires an appreciation of local and indigenous knowledge (e.g. Bangladesh Warning System).

Some NMHS are investing in research to better translate the intensity of forecast meteorological parameters into impacts and risk levels for communities.

Work is needed to identify the most dangerous impacts, the contribution of cumulative and sequential events to risks and thresholds for failures/disaster.

Information on thresholds for infrastructure failure could significantly contribute to weather and flood warning criteria… environmental prediction

Warning Thresholds and Vigilance:Warning Thresholds and Vigilance: Often Linked to Infrastructure Failure ThresholdsOften Linked to Infrastructure Failure Thresholds

Vigilance… Reducing the Impacts of HazardsVigilance… Reducing the Impacts of Hazards

“meteorological vigilance” (e.g. weather watch map systems).

Colour-coded map, with each region assigned a colour according to the seriousness of the predicted risk (vulnerability) Green, yellowyellow, orange, red,

Highlights the most dangerous events…. beginning to integrate vulnerability analysis.

China (CMA): colour coded warnings for 11 extreme weather conditions – blue, yellowyellow, orange, red, black

Cumulative + Sequential Hazards = Growing RiskCumulative + Sequential Hazards = Growing Risk

Warning systems need to include suddenevents and “creeping” and combination hazards…

Sequential or cumulative events impact vulnerability and need to be considered in monitoring and Warnings.

e.g. antecedent rainfall and increasing risks from storm rainfall

e.g. drought

The Special Needs ofThe Special Needs ofEmergency Responders…Emergency Responders…

Lead times are very important … for the activation of emergency response plans and to identify the most significant risks.

e.g. UK Met Office Early Alerts

Escalating messages for the public

Special needs, advance warnings for emergency responders (includes training)?

RECOVERY from the DISASTER:RECOVERY from the DISASTER: REBUILD and REDUCE VULNERABILITIESREBUILD and REDUCE VULNERABILITIES

Forecast and Warning support, including additional information to protect vulnerable populations

Hazards risk guidance for rebuilding communities

Forensics studies (science) -in partnership with others

Learning from Failures… Learning from Failures… Value of Forensic StudiesValue of Forensic Studies

critical thresholds for disasters and infrastructure failure

improvements to emergency response plans

improved and new products, services

“forensic investigations” of high impact events yield valuable insights (continuous improvement) into:

Climate Change and Disaster ManagementClimate Change and Disaster Management

Climate Change and DisastersClimate Change and Disasters

The global cost of natural disasters may exceed $300 billion annually by the year 2050 if the likely impact of climate change is not countered with aggressive disaster reduction measures…

Disaster risk reduction…a “no regrets” approach that reduces vulnerability to near-term hazards today will become an even more effective strategy for reducing future risks.

UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

The Future… Disaster ManagementThe Future… Disaster Management

The aim of the ISDR is to mobilize governments, UN agencies, regional bodies, the private sector and civil society to unite efforts in building resilient societies by developing a culture of prevention and preparedness.

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

WMO and Disaster ManagementWMO and Disaster Management

Target: Half the loss of life associated with natural disasters (hydro-meteorological) over the next 15 years

Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme

WMO and national meteorological/hydrological services have the capability to develop and deliver critical products and services to the disaster risk management decision process.

Successful Disaster Management:Successful Disaster Management:Risk and Crises ManagementRisk and Crises Management

Risk Management: Proactive• Climatic & hydrological design information• Hazards for emergency management planning• Development of vigilance warning systems

Crises Management: Reactive• Warnings & emergency response • Environmental prediction• Hazards and risk information to rebuild

T h a n k Y o uT h a n k Y o u