Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme Geohazards

Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme

Geohazards

GHCP Splinter Meeting at the Annual Meeting of the

European Geoscience UnionApril 25, 2012, 8:30 - 12:00; Room SM5

Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of

Extreme Geohazards

Purpose of the Meeting- Recognize/review two major milestones for the GHCP: - Road Map and - Declaration- Discuss activities deriving from these milestones leading to disaster risk reduction- Emphasize the importance of extreme events- Link the GHCP better to relevant GEO Work Plan Task activities

Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of

Extreme Geohazards

Wednesday, April 25, 20120830 - 1000: Block I0830 - 0840: Welcome, purpose of the meeting (Plag, Marsh)0840 - 0900: GHCP Road Map and Declaration (Marsh)0900 - 0940: Discussion: Implementation of the Road Map and Declaration0940 - 1000: Seth Stein: Lessons from Tohoku - why hazard maps often fail and what to do about it1000 - 1030: Coffee Break1030 - 1200: Block II1030 - 1050: Towards a global geohazards information system for disaster risk reduction (brief introduction by Plag and discussion)1050 - 1110: White Paper on extreme geohazards (brief introduction by Plag and discussion)1110 - 1145: GHCP and GEO Work Plan implementation (Focus on DI-01, Components leads)1145 - 1200: AOB, next meeting, action items (Marsh, Plag)

GEO, GEOSS ...

The Group on Earth Observations

Ad hoc Group on Earth Observations established in 2003 by G8 in response to 2002 Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development;

Mandat: Develop an Implementation Plan for a coodinated Earth observation system;

After eighteen months and many meetings (including 2 Summits on EO):

10 Year Implementation Plan for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) was available.

Vision: A future where decisions are informed by Earth observations


Group on Earth Observations (GEO) established at the EO Summit in February 2005 in Brussels

One major objective: Establish a coordinated and sustained Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) to enhance informed decision making (in nine Societal Benefit Areas)

Participation: By now ~90 Member Countries and >60 Participating Organizations


Main Objectives:Improve and Coordinate Earth ObservationsProvide easier and more access to dataFacilitate societal benefits of EO through use and applicationsBuild capacity in the use of EO

Key Documents:10 Year Implementation PlanNine Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs)GEO Strategic Targets: For each SBA and cross-cuttingData Sharing PrinciplesWork Plan: Defines Tasks; is annually updated

Discussion of Road Map and Declaration

GEOSS Strategic Targets

GEOSS STRATEGIC TARGET OF THE DISASTER SBA:Enable the global coordination of observing and information systems to support all phases of the risk management cycle associated with hazards (mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery).

This will be achieved through:- more timely dissemination of information from globally-coordinated systems for monitoring, predicting, risk assessment, early warning, mitigating, and responding to hazards at local, national, regional, and global levels;- development of multi-hazard and/or end-to-end approaches, as appropriate to meet the needs for disaster risk reduction, preparedness and response in relevant hazard environments; - supporting the implementation of the priorities for action identified in the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters (HFA).

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Geohazards are a challenge for a growing global population: In many regions, geohazards are a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructure and destroying livelihoods. Urban settlements sprawling into hazards areas rapidly increased the disasters caused by these hazards.

The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP)

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Managing the risk and reducing disasters: The concept of the risk management cycle with the four phases of mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery captures elegantly the necessary steps to reduce the number and scale of disasters. Without significantly improved risk management, societies will continue to face a growing number of major disasters that require international support actions. Integrating mitigation and adaptation into planning and development of settlements and infrastructure long before a specific hazardous event occurs is a prerequisite for resilience. All this depends on sufficient Earth observations supporting hazard detection and mapping, early warning, and disaster assessment.


The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP)Heritage


Support from UNESCO, IUGS, ESF; Builds on the work of Geohazards Theme of IGOS-P and three

International Workshops on Geohazards; Developed a Road Map; mainly during a Workshop in Jan. 2010 at

UNESCO, Paris; Road Map impacted the Disaster Task DI-01. Organized European Science Foundation Conference on extreme

geohazards: Declaration on extreme geohazards

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The GHCP Road Map, which was agreed during the GHCP workshop jointly organized with GEO and UNESCO in January 2010 in Paris, has the main goal to utilize Earth observations for the support of the full risk management cycle. It details actions geared to achieve the strategic goal of the GHCP by 2020.


STRATEGIC TARGET OF THE GHCP:By 2020 put in place all building blocks for comprehensive monitoring of geohazards and the provision of timely information on spatio-temporal characteristics, risks, and occurrence of geohazards, in support of all phases of the risk management cycle (mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery), and as a basis for increased resilience and disaster reduction.

GEO's goal for the Disasters Societal Benefit Area (SBA) is “reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced disasters.” GEOSS STRATEGIC TARGET OF THE DISASTER SBA: Enable the global coordination of observing and information systems to support all phases of the risk management cycle associated with hazards (mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery).


ESF/COST Conference

ESF/COST Conference

Declaration on Extreme Geohazards and the Reduction of Disaster Risks

We, the Participants of the ESF-COST High-Level Research Conference on “Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Risk Management Cycle,” declare the need that * … * data relevant to the monitoring and understanding of geohazards be shared freely in support of geohazard research and disaster risk reduction; * interdisciplinary research programmes be developed which integrate the natural and social sciences to address all phases of the disaster risk management cycle; * a dedicated outreach and education programme be developed to support a change in the citizens' and authorities' perception of the risks associated with major geohazards and to help recognize the challenges these hazards pose to society; * information on geohazards be disseminated so that relevant governmental bodies and citizens can make informed and transparent decisions on where to build what and how, and where to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings to future hazards; * ...

ESF/COST Conference


* ... * state-of-the-art products be developed to help policy makers developing legislation for risk reduction and planning for a safe built environment; * ... * international collaboration with local experts be fostered, to help regions with poorly developed governance mitigate disaster risks; * low-technology response and rescue capabilities be improved, particularly in developing countries, so that disaster-impacted populations can be reached more rapidly; * a community-based white paper, addressing the scientific and societal challenges of increasing disaster risk due to extreme geohazards, be prepared and distributed to funding agencies and governmental and intergovernmental bodies; and * a process for an integrated assessment of disaster risk due to geohazards be established and the results of this assessment be articulated through an authoritative scientific body (like IPCC).

Towards a Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction

- Supersites Initiative (2007)- Tandem Centers (2010)- GGIS-DRR (2012)

Supersites Initative

Original proposal: 2007 Frascati Declaration...recommend * to stimulate an international and intergovernmental effort to monitor and study selected reference sites by establishing open access to relevant datasets according to GEO principles to foster the collaboration between all various partners and end-users


Original proposal: 2007 Frascati Declaration...recommend * to stimulate an international and intergovernmental effort to monitor and study selected reference sites by establishing open access to relevant datasets according to GEO principles to foster the collaboration between all various partners and end-users

Implementation: - focused on limited data types; - mainly serves the data needs of science; - event-based sites more data and attention.

Challenges: - broaden data sharing; - link science and end-users; - focus on the prepare phase.

Implementation of the GHCP Road Map will be achieved by developing very few carefully selected core centers, which will provide focal points for a large geographical region where all building blocks of a value chain from observations to end users can be linked together and applied to the phases of the risk management cycle relevant for this region.

Alan Edwards, 2012

Challenge:

Developing today the concepts for the technology of tomorrow

What are the basic characteristics of an information and management system based on tomorrow's technology? - globally available and accessible- processing resources where the data sources are- scalable- best practice and workflows available to everybody- access to base datasets- updated in real-time- information density and quality increased through crowd sourcing

GGIS-DRR

Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction

FUNCTIONS:- support for preparedness and improved planning through information on hazard probabilities, vulnerability, and exposed assets based on EOs (space-borne, air-borne, in situ);- support for early warning through information on hazard occurrence;- support for response through intelligence on hazard extent and impacts and intelligence for response planning;- support for recovery through improved risk assessments as input for risk-based post-event planning; - throughout all phases, improvements of static data based on crowd sourcing; - integration of time-variable data related to (increased) hazard probability, changes in exposure and vulnerability;- visualization of potential future and past hazards for increased awareness and risk perception; - basis for community planning;- interactive tools for users at all levels.

GGIS-DRR


IMPACTS:- equal opportunity: urban and rural; developed and developing;- global availability of tools; best practices;- “virtual” tandem centers, on a global basis;- support focus on most relevant hazards;- change risk perception;- support improved decision making to access to information, intelligence;- utilize new data sources, including crowd sourcing;- facilitate community planning;- standardization, interoperability, data sharing

GGIS-DRR


PARTICIPATION:- Task Team of DI-01 and GHCP;- GEO Participating Organizations (POs);- international and national agencies;- non-governmental organizations;- links to national and regional agencies through Member Countries of GEO;- re-insurances;- private industry

GGIS-DRR


IMPLEMENTATION:- provision of key resources through developed countries;- web-based access provides global availability;- scalable;- community support (from state/national agencies, research groups, use cases) - provides best practices available for others

GGIS-DRR


POPULATION THROUGH USE CASES

Initial examples:Strain maps (global: UNR; regional: Nevada)Shakemaps (California, Nevada)Fault database (Nevada)Landslide data (Italy)Volcano (Italy and Democratic Republic of Congo) Land use planning based on hazard assessments (tbd)Tsunamis (tbd)

GGIS-DRR


FUNDING OPTIONS

Worldbank,EC,national (USA: NSF/NASA/USAID, ...)Belmont Forum.

GGIS-DRR

White Paper on Extreme Geohazards


We, the Participants of the ESF-COST High-Level Research Conference on “Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Risk Management Cycle,” declare the need that * …

* a community-based white paper, addressing the scientific and societal challenges of increasing disaster risk due to extreme geohazards, be prepared and distributed to funding agencies and governmental and intergovernmental bodies;



Contents:- How should society confront extreme geohazards? - What are extreme geohazards? What are the public health impacts? - How do they compare to other extreme hazards (impacts from space, solar storms, extreme floods and droughts, ...) - What do we know about probabilities at the upper end and what are the uncertainties? - Can we reduce the uncertainties? Ability to deal with uncertainties-Consequences of scientific statements - cost/benefits - What are the major vulnerabilities and risks? - How can we reduce vulnerability and risks?

Authors/Editors: H.-P. Plag, S. Stein, S. Marsh, …, community

GHCP and Work Plan Implementation

GEO, GEOSS and the GHCP

GEO Strategic Target focuses on disaster reduction; Data sharing supports hazards and data related research and applications; GEOSS services and pilots support disaster reduction; DI-01: Addresses several aspects of the risk management cycle; Architecture Implementation Project has a use case on Disaster; GHCP Road Map addresses all four phases of the risk management cycle; The GGIS-GRR will integrate many of the current activities and address the Road Map implementation comprehensively

GEO Work Plan 2012-2015

DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC1: Disaster Management SystemsC2: Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk AssessmentC3: Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard AssessmentC4: Global Wildland Fire Information SystemC5: Regional End-to-End Pilots


DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC1: Disaster Management SystemsLeads (tentative)EC (GMES), South Africa (CSIR), USA (NASA), CEOS, ESA, UNITAR, UNOOSA

Priority Actions• Improve access to information provided through key disaster management mechanisms.• Make information related to environmental risk and vulnerability easily accessible through a centralized platform.• Enhance the use of satellite data for disaster management.• Integrate baseline geographic information and reference maps with real-time data from satellite or in-situ platforms.• Review global and regional disaster risk management systems.• Perform a gap analysis considering data, metadata, systems, and capacity.


DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC2: Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk AssessmentLeads (tentative)EC (OneGeology), Italy (EUCentre), South Africa (DST), USA (Univ. of Miami, USGS), EPOS, ESA, FDSN

Priority Actions• Apply a fully integrated approach to geohazards monitoring, based on collaboration among existing networks and international initiatives, using new instrumentation such as in-situ sensors, and aggregating space (RADAR, optical imagery) and ground-based (subsurface) observations.• Support the establishment of Supersites and Natural Laboratories. Provide an e-infrastructure allowing easy data access (space & in-situ)


DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC3: Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard AssessmentLeads (tentative)EC (DG-ECHO, JRC), Germany (DLR), IOC

Priority Actions• Support tsunami early warning. • Promote real-time data sharing in particular seismic and sea-level (deep-ocean and tide-gauge data). Standardize procedures, terminology, communication and evacuation practices. Optimize tsunami evacuation plans through the use of damage scenarios and traffic flow models.• Support tsunami hazards assessment. Enable and develop a global tsunami hazard map through provision of bathymetry and topography data


DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC4: Global Wildland Fire Information SystemLeads (tentative)Canada (CFS), EC (JRC), Germany (GFMC), South Africa (CSIR), USA (NOAA, USDA), GTOS (GOFC-GOLD)

Priority Actions• Support the establishment of an operational Global Wildland Fire Early Warning System (GWFEWS). • Improve fire management cooperation and regional coordination with local systems.• Support and promote the use of satellite data for wildfire risk assessment and damage assessment• Develop longer-term predictions of fire-danger based on advanced numerical weather models (in coordination with WE-01)• Expand fire-danger rating systems to countries that do not have the financial nor institutional capacity to develop their own system


DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC5: Regional End-to-End PilotsLeads (tentative)Canada (CSA), USA (NASA, USAID), CEOS

Priority Actions (synthesis)• Implement regional and cross-cutting end-to-end projects. Develop natural-risk decision-support tools and applications supporting the full cycle of disaster management, especially for developing countries. • Identify locations of tandem centers of excellence in developed and developing regions and initiate the formation of centers


DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster ReductionC1: Disaster Management SystemsC2: Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk Assessment: SupersitesC3: Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard AssessmentC4: Global Wildland Fire Information SystemC5: Regional End-to-End Pilots: Tandem Centers

Any Other Business: GHCP and URR

Next Meeting- May 20 – 23, 2012, Santorini ?

Action Items: GHCP-M3-1:

Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme Geohazards

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