Disaster Risk Management - World Bank · Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan was historically...

Report No. 81090-PK

Disaster Risk Management & Climate Change UnitSouth Asia Sustainable Development Department

Disaster Risk Management

Pakistan Strategy Note 2012 - 2016

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Report No. 81090-PK

Disaster Risk Management & Climate Change UnitSouth Asia Sustainable Development Department


Pakistan Strategy Note

2012 - 2016

THE WORLD BANK

Standard Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved

This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.

Copyright © 2013 The World Bank / Pakistan20-A, Shahrah-e-Jumhuriat, G-5/1

Islamabad 44000, Pakistan

Disaster Risk Management 3

Contents

Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Introduction and Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Evolution of DRM Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Role of International Development Partners. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Challenges in the DRM Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Institutional Capacity and Clarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Understanding Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Bank's Strategic Approach to Advance DRM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Targeted Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Current Engagements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Planned Bank Engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Bank Partners in Understanding Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Leveraging the Bank's Comparative Advantage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Risks to the DRM Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Unclear DRM Roles and Responsibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Weak Government Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Ownership and Identification of Champions within the Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Figure 1: Targeted Bank Support to Government Priorities as Identified in the NDRMF . . . . . . . 9

Figure 2: Timeline of DRM Engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Figure 3: Engagement with Bank Sector Teams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Disaster Risk Management4

Acknowledgments

This strategy note was prepared by a core team comprising Marc S.Forni, Haris Khan, Shiraz Ali

Shah and Ahsan Tehsin.

The authors are grateful to the peer reviewers of earlier drafts of this note, including Raja Rehan

Arshad, Christoph Pusch and Niels B. Holm-Nielsen.

The authors would like to thank Rachid Benmessaoud, Bernice K. Van Bronkhorsht, Francis

Ghesquiere and Reynold Duncan for their guidance in finalizing this note.

The authors also express their gratitude for the cooperation and support received from Bank

colleagues, including, Inaam Ul Haq, Alanna Simpson, Javaid Afzal, Umbreen Arif, Sarwat Aftab,

Muqaddisa Mehreen, Jack Campbell, Kelly Johnson, Ayaz Parvez, Sonam Velani, Suhaib Rasheed,

Shabir Ahmad, Shahnaz Meraj and Samia Sardar.


Abbreviations

ADB

BDMP

CBDRM

DDMA

DFID

DRFI

DRM

EC

ERC

ERRA

FFC

GFDRR

GoP

JICA

MDTF

NDMA

NDRMF

NWG

PDMA

PDRP

PHRD

PID

SDN

UNDP

USAID

Asian Development Bank

Balochistan Disaster Management Project

Community Based Disaster Risk Management

District Disaster Management Authority

Department for International Development (UK)

Disaster Risk Financing & Insurance


European Commission

Emergency Relief Cell

Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority

Federal Flood Commission

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

Government of Pakistan

Japan International Cooperation Agency

Multi-donor Trust Fund for KP, FATA and Balochistan

National Disaster Management Authority

National Disaster Risk Management Framework

National Working Group

Provincial Disaster Management Authority

Partnership for Disaster Resilience in Pakistan

Policy and Human Resource Development

Provincial Irrigation Department

Sustainable Development Network

United Nations Development Programme

United States Agency for International Development


Introduction and Context

Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events including earthquakes, cyclones,

tsunamis, floods, and droughts. These risks are further exacerbated due to growing urbanization and

shifting climatic patterns, resulting in extreme and unpredictable weather events. Pakistan has

experienced a wide range of major disasters in the past 40 years. The country is one of the most

flood-prone in South Asia, with a number of floods having caused significant damage, particularly in

1950, 1992, 1998, 2010 and 2011. In particular, the floods in 2010 and 2011 caused damages and

losses amounting to US$10 billion and US$3.7 billion, respectively. Earthquakes events are

frequent, with the last major one occurring in 2005 that killed 73,000 people and caused US$5

billion in losses. Most of Pakistan experiences low rainfall and as much as 60 percent of the country

is classified as semi-arid to arid, with the most susceptible regions experiencing drought 2 or 3 years

every decade. Recent droughts include those of 2000 and 2002, which severely impacted livelihoods

and forced thousands to migrate. Additionally, 14 cyclones have occurred over the past 40 years, the

last major event being Cyclone Yemyin in 2007, which caused damages amounting to US$537

million.

A consistent and long-term demographic shift of the population to urban areas and regions has

turned cities into the drivers of economic growth in Pakistan. However, growing urbanization has

also led to a greater exposure and vulnerability of urban population to disaster risks. Increased

urbanization has not necessarily been driven through systematic land-use and spatial planning or

conformity to building codes.

Climate change could increase Pakistan's vulnerability to disasters. Shifts in weather patterns can

result in an increase in glacial melt, sea level rise along Pakistan's coast, and increased periods

without precipitation. Glacial recession will also result in less water inflow to the Indus River Basin.

These factors may lead to an escalation in the intensity and frequency of flash floods, as well as

drought events that could compromise potable water supply, irrigation water and power generation.

A lack of understanding, as well as limited action by the government on Disaster Risk Management

(DRM) in Pakistan, further exacerbates the challenges in the achievement of development goals. To

achieve an acceptable level of resilience, policy-makers must clearly understand and manage the

risks that contribute to a disaster. The level of disaster resilience should be measured not just

through infrastructure built or services delivered, but also through lives saved and losses minimized

during a disaster event,


The objective of the Bank's DRM engagement is to support the Government of Pakistan's (GoP)

priority for improved institutional clarity and capacity in DRM, and understanding of disaster risk to

increase resilience. Increasing the capacity involves the streamlining of roles and responsibilities of

institutions, and strengthening operating procedures and protocols with the aim to mitigate risk, as

well as prepare for and respond to disasters events in a more coordinated manner. Increasing the

understanding of disaster risk is expected to lead to mitigation measures to reduce disaster

vulnerability.The first phase of this engagement is supporting the National Working Group (NWG)

on Risk Assessments to reach consensus on understanding of physical and fiscal disaster risk.

Increased understanding of vulnerable infrastructure and development would lead to the

development of a road-map for a multi-year investment program to increase disaster resilience.

Objective

Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan was historically governed by the Calamity Act of 1958.

Following a number of disasters, including the major Kashmir Earthquake in 2005, the GoPmade

concerted efforts towards establishing a holistic DRM framework. As a result, the National Disaster

Management Ordinance was issued in 2006, which established an institutional framework to

address DRM in the country, including the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). The

Ordinance was later superseded by the National Disaster Management (NDM) Act in 2010.

In the aftermath of the 18th Constitutional Amendment, DRM roles and responsibilities were

devolved to the provinces, which has compounded the fragmentation and proliferation of DRM

actors. Nominally leading provincial coordination, are the Provincial Disaster Management

Authorities (PDMAs). However, the PDMAs generally lack the human and technical capacity to

manage DRM activities, while they also lack financial resources and convening power.

Furthermore, the devolution of authority has resulted in a more limited and unclear role of NDMA

with regards tocoordination, technical assistance, and policy support. Compounding this confusion,

there are a number of entities working on DRM with overlapping mandates at the federal level,

including NDMA which falls under the administrative control of the Ministry of Climate Change;

the Earthquake Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), the Cabinet's Emergency

Relief Cell (ERC), the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), and other ad-hoc relief committees.

This multiplicity of institutions is also present at the provincial level, which include, PDMAs, the

Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs), Relief Commissioner's Office, and the Civil Defence and

Rescue Services. Similarly, there are a number of legal parameters covering disasters and

emergency situations that overlap between government agencies and tiers.

Evolution of DRM Structure


Recurring disaster events in Pakistan over the last decade have resulted in increased donor

interventions. However, these interventions are primarily targeted towards humanitarian and

recovery activities, and are often perceived as investments in DRM. The existing engagement of

donors in the sector is limited by minimal financial resources spread too thin across various themes.

Lack of concentrated and material resources inhibits international partners from holistically

addressing DRM in Pakistan.

With regards to specific donors, the main actors are DFID, JICA, USAID and smaller non-

governmental organizations (NGOs). DFID is currently in the process of developing a DRM

program in collaboration with the Bank team, with potential resources between US$15 and $50

million. JICA is developing a National Disaster Management Plan which is now at the consultation

stage. USAID is preparing a Community based DRM program which it intends to implement

through NGOs. In addition, the UN is engaged in a dialogue with the government on a potential

program, for which funding sources are not yet clear. NGOs are also involved in limited community

based programs. To help keep Government and development partners informed of developments in

DRM, the Bank is part of the Partnership of Disaster Resilience in Pakistan (PDRP), which includes

the Bank, ADB, JICA, UN, US, EC and DFID.Additionally, the Political Champions Group has

been created to improve the visibility and focus on DRM in countries including Pakistan. The Group

meets regularly on the sidelines of the Bank's Annual and Spring Meetings and comprises: the heads

of UNDP, DFID, USAID, EC, JICA, and the VP of the SDN Network.

Three key challenges impede action in DRM, including: i) weak institutional clarity and capacity; ii)

limited effective coordination at the federal and provincial levels; and iii) lack of consensus and

understanding of disaster risk to inform decision-making and guide investments to build resilience.

The NDMA and the PDMAs are relatively new and weak

organizations that have limited funding capacity to convene line ministries and other government

agencies. The DMAs receive weak political support and are unable to engage with other sectors. A

high-rate of turn-over and staffing issues are also persistent across all DMAs. The District Disaster

Management Authorities (DDMAs) represent the weakest link in the institutional chain. Effectively,

DDMAs are inter-departmental committees at the district level, and are seldom operationalized,

other than when a disaster occurs. The capacity constraints are further exacerbated due to

insufficient communications systems and network of support available at the national, provincial

and local levels. Overall, institutional and technical knowledge to support mainstreaming DRM

remains limited.

Institutional Capacity and Clarity:

Challenges in the DRM Sector

Role of International Development Partners


Coordination:

Understanding Risk:

The multiplicity of institutions at both the federal and provincial levels has created

uncertainty and non-clarity regarding roles and responsibilities. The post-18th amendment context,

and devolution of DRM responsibilities to the provinces, has further created confusion on the roles

of NDMA and line ministries / agencies.This situation results in a lack of coordination which hinders

effective development planning and disaster response.

A comprehensive hazard and risk assessment is yet to be undertaken for the

country. There is a lack of essential risk information such as baseline data and risk profiles for

different geographic areas of the country, hampering policymakers from devising holistic DRM

interventions. There is an absence of a standard methodology for risk assessments, as well as very

limited collaboration between technical agencies. Furthermore the absence of a fiscal risk

assessment has also led to the underestimation of fiscal impact on disasters. Overall, a lack of

understanding of disaster risk hinders investment in resilience across sectors.

Targeted Support: The Bank's approach to DRM is proposed to be selective and focused. It aims to

support the top two government priority areas identified in the National Disaster Risk Management

Framework (NDRMF) and other policy documents: i) Institutional and Legal Arrangements and

Capacity; and, ii) Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment. Figure 1 presents the proposed approach

and detailed below is the Bank's current engagements to support the strengthening of these pillars.

Bank's Strategic Approach to Advance DRM

Figure 1: Targeted Bank Support to Government Priorities as Identified in the NDRMF

Current Engagements: In line with the overall objective, the Bank's targeted support is currently

focused on addressing two pillars of obstacles toward advancing DRM: i) improved institutional

clarity and capacity; and, ii) increased resilience.

Institutional and Legal Arrangements & Capacity

Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment

Training, Education and Awareness

Community and Local Level Programming

Disaster Risk Management Planning

Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems

Mainstreaming DRR into Development

Emergency Response Systems

Capacity Development for Post Disaster Recovery


Under the first pillar, the Bank has the following projects under implementation:

Balochistan Disaster Management Project (BDMP): The US$5 million grant has been funded

through the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) to strengthen the capacity of PDMA Balochistan to

prepare for and respond to natural disasters. The project includes institutional strengthening of

PDMA Balochistan.

Strengthening Pakistan's Urban Disaster Response Capacity: The objective of this US$3 million

grant, financed by Government of Japan's Policy and Human Resources Development (PHRD) fund

is to develop appropriate methodologies and guidelines for assessing and subsequently enhancing

the capacity of two municipal agencies to engage in disaster response. This activity is particularly

important keeping in view the recurrent annual flooding disasters since 2010 in the country.

Under the second pillar, the Bank has the following projects under implementation:

Innovation in Risk Assessment and Financing: This US$2 million joint GFDRR and DFID grant

aims at supporting the government in advancing the understanding of risk and developing financial

protection strategies. The program will support the development of the country's data gathering, risk

modeling and risk financing capacities. This is the first and only national engagement of the Political

Champions group formed to raise awareness of the importance of DRM.

Development of a Program for Hazard and Risk Assessment in Urban Areas: The objective of this

US$500,000 GFDRR-funded activity is to increase the capacity for hazard and risk assessment in

Pakistan. It will be implemented in two pilot cities and is designed to contribute to the creation of a

replicable assessment framework for the country.

The Bank plans on further building on the activities under the two

pillars to address existing weaknesses. Under the first pillar, the Bank would continue to support

capacity building of DRM institutions, including the NDMA and PDMAs. This would also involve

scaling up the Balochistan project to other provinces to strengthen DRM systems at the provincial

level. Under the second pillar, the Bank plans on completing the ongoing initiative of understanding

of physical and fiscal risk, which would lead to implementation of a disaster risk financing program,

and the development of an investment program to reduce physical vulnerability through

infrastructure investments.

Figure 2 provides an overview of the DRM engagement over the course of this strategy (2012-2016):

Planned Bank Engagement:


Bank Partners in Understanding Risk: The DRM team is currently engaged with other Bank sector teams

to improve the understanding and consensus of physical and fiscal risk. Key collaborations are bulleted below

and Figure 3 provides an overview of this engagement. Collaboration with other sectors does not necessarily

translate into the mobilization of extensive resources; rather it builds on the work of each other.

· Social protection: Collaboration in immediate recovery efforts, with potential DRFI support to

manage the government's contingent liabilities.

· Finance and Private Sector Development: Joint effort to increase the capacity of catastrophe markets

and agreed to speak with one voice to the relevant actors. This will be achieved through regular

discussion and the sharing of analytical results to ensure a joined-up approach.

· Education: Collaboration in Sindh and Balochistan on resilient construction through the on-going

education sector programs. Additional support may be provided through the Safe School Program,

should these funds materialize for Pakistan

· Environment: Work to reach consensus within GoP on flood risk and streamlining flood response and

agreed to advance understanding of flood risk together.

· GFDRR: The Understanding Risk program in Pakistan is viewed externally as the global flagship

engagement for the Political Champions Group

2012

- Balochistan DRM

Project Approved

- National Working

Group on Risk

Assessment (NWG)

Notified

- Understanding Risk

Program Initiated

- DRM Strategy

Finalized

- Training and

Capacity Building of

NWG

- Disaster Fiscal Risk

Assessment

Completed

- Initiate National

DRM Institutional

Assessment

- Development of

Risk financing

instruments

- Establishment of

National Data

Platform for Risk

Assessment

- Develop program to

address institutional

constraints in DRM

at various tiers of

Government

2013 2014 2015 2016

- Development of

national disaster

resilience

investment program

based on results and

recommendations of

the NWG

- National program to

increase physical

resilience to natural

disasters

Figure 3: Engagement with Bank Sector Teams

Addressing fiscal risk

Social Protection support to disaster recovery

FPD insurance analysis

PREM fiscal impacts

Addressing physical risk

Education Support to safe schools

Water flood risk assessment

Urban Punjab risk management

Health structural vulnerability

and health systems

Figure 2: Timeline of DRM Engagement


The Bank's broader experience in DRM ranges from preparedness and mitigation to responding to

post-disaster recovery and reconstruction challenges in many countries. In Pakistan, the Bank is

increasingly seen as an important player in DRM both by development partners and government,

particularly on providing support for carrying out risk assessments and establishing risk transfer

mechanisms.

The Bank's comparative advantage in the DRM sector is derived from a combination of the

following factors: i) technical capacity and global leadership on development and DRM; ii) capacity

to provide financial resources to increase physical resilience to disasters; iii) ability to crowd-in soft

resources from development partners due to fiduciary capacity and reputation as a leader in the field;

iv) demonstrated convening power to bring together scientific communities, donors, civil society

groups and government counterparts to address development challenges; and, v) ability to support

the program with concessionary financial resources and innovative financing products.

Several key risks for the implementation of the DRM program have been identified, based on current

and past country and sectoral experiences.

The absence of clarity of roles and responsibilities of

government institutions is a major challenge to the DRM program. However, the program itself

seeks to mitigate this risk through upstream activities such as development of procedures and

protocols. Overlapping roles of multiple government agencies can also potentially lead to duplicity

of the Bank's program vis-à-vis other donor-funded programs. However, this should be mitigated

through the Partnership of Disaster Resilience in Pakistan.

The DRM institutions at the federal, provincial and district levels

are at a nascent stage of development and are faced with considerable capacity challenges. In turn,

the weak capacity of these institutions contributes towards overall implementation risk of the Bank

program. The project level activities of the DRM program will seek to mitigate this risk through

provision of support for capacity building, particularly at the provincial level.

Since a recent paradigm

shift has been experienced in the government's approach to DRM, it is critical to ensure that

champions of change are identified within the government. The Bank has been, and will continue to

remain, in a regular dialogue with the government at all levels, so that DRM continues to remain a

priority for the government.

Unclear DRM Roles and Responsibilities:

Weak Government Capacity:

Ownership and Identification of Champions within the Government:

Risks to the DRM Program

Leveraging the Bank's Comparative Advantage

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