DISASTER RISK

MANAGEMENT IN THE

ANGLOPHONE CARIBBEAN POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH COUNCIL CONFERENCE

NOVEMBER 2018

Dr Barbara Carby, Disaster Risk Reduction Centre, University of the West Indies

Outline

Caribbean hazard context

Coordinating mechanism and

framework

Science and Technology potential - Pre

and Post Impact

Exposure : Seismicity

Eastern Caribbean Volcanism source:

https://www.google.com.jm/search?q=caribbean+plate+volcanoes+map&rlz=1C1GCEA_enJM803JM803&tbm=isch

&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=ehrQQRhzjwU8LM%253A%252ChY0a6JPT5gnrvM%252C_&usg=AI4_

North Atlantic Hurricane Belt – tracks 1851 – present Source: https://www.google.com.jm/search?q=north+atlantic+hurricane+tracks+1851+-

+present&rlz=1C1GCEA_enJM803JM803&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=HEsy8iSAFqkdkM%253A%252CI8jNGAPFZrmKrM%252C_&usg=AI4_-

kQvhRn9AIxNnoM8vMnXN1C8KueD_A&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwij1b3n7NHeAhUBjlkKHcqVDU4Q9QEwD3oECAQQBA#imgrc=HEsy8iSAFqkdkM:

Other Hazards

Landslides

Floods

Drought

Fires

Hazardous materials spills, leaks

Transportation accidents

Epidemics – medical, agricultural

Caribbean Vulnerability

Mix of exposure and socio-economic conditions leads to vulnerability

To these hazards:

Caribbean countries have inherent vulnerabilities to natural hazards due

to small size, limited resource base, concentration of development along

coastlines

Increasing urbanisation of our societies are placing greater burdens on our

environmental resources

Caribbean Vulnerability

Changing climate is increasing the unpredictable nature

of weather patterns

Changing societal dynamics - work-life patterns,

lifestyle expectations, demographic changes,

community fragmentation are reducing community

cohesion and social safety nets which are important for

community resilience

Climate Change Forecasts

Across the Region

More intense storms

More intense rainfall events

Overall drying trend

Changes in vector distribution

Increasing temperatures

Rising sea levels

DRM Coordinating mechanism- Regional

CDEMA

Four Sub-regional

Focal

Points

link with

countries

Regional Orgs, Dev Partners,

NGOs

Coordinating Mechanism -National

National Disaster Committee/Office

Parish / Community Level

Parish/Community Level

Parish/Community Level

Dev Partners, NGOs

Requirements of 21st Century DRM

Personnel

Establish and maintain credibility in multi-source information age

Communications channels which reach all residents (inc PWDs)

Good evidence base for decision making, planning

Ability to forecast future state

Ability to manage data in real time

21st Century DRM - Challenges

Hi rates of urbanization often without required planning, infrastructure

Increasing frequency, intensity of impacts meteorological hazards

Past no longer the key to the present or future

Multiple sources of information – some thought to be more credible than

local sources

SO CAN SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY HELP

Modelling

Projections, Forecasting

Inclusive communication

Hazard/Risk analysis, mapping

Pre-Impact Communications

Data Management

Inclusive communications

Coordination, Impact Assessment, logistics

Post Impact

PRE IMPACT

RISK ANALYSIS AND MAPPING TO GUIDE RISK SENSITIVE PLANNING

TO LOWER EXPOSURE – Short Term

MODELLING OUTPUTS PROJECT FUTURE to guide medium to long term planning

Very good work on downscaling global climate models to allow forecasting of

regional climate change impacts to end of century.

Climate modelling

Seismic Map showing ground

acceleration

Flood Modelling

Modelling of the 1979 western Jamaica flood in

today’s conditions

Preliminary Results – Flood Impact Flood Period: 4pm to 11:59pm

19

TUESDAY FRIDAY

SATURDAY

Safe Stuck Injured Killed Total

Tuesday 191 17 4 9 221

Friday 197 11 6 7 221

Saturday 195 17 5 4 221

Earthquake Simulation Software

Can Provide Projections on:

Building damage

Post event building occupancy

Population displacement

Medical care capacity

Shelter occupancy

Post Impact

In post-impact situations adequate information, gathered rapidly, is the single most important need for DRM practitioners.

Tools now available which allow data gathering even in conditions which are difficult or dangerous for field teams

Satellite imagery

Drone reconnaissance

Pre and Post Imagery Thailand, 1:12,500

Source:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220053806_Satellite_Image_Analysis_for_Disaster_and_Crisis-

Management_Support/figures?lo=1

Earthquake damage (Colours denote

damage level) Source:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220053806_Satellite_Image_Analysis_for_Disaster_an

d_Crisis-Management_Support/figures?lo=1

Drone Imagery

2018 Flooding in Trinidad (Photo : Vinesh Ramdial)

DRONES could deliver relief packages freeing

helicopter support for other missions

Communications

Traditional systems highly susceptible to ground shaking,

flooding, high winds.

Need reliable systems which allow internet connectivity

Balloons

Satellite

Traditional and New

The future …..

Elon Musk Wants to Blanket the World With the Best

Satellite Internet Service Ever. The FCC Just Said Yes

SpaceX got conditional approval to launch 4,425 satellites

into low-Earth orbit.

"Grant of this application will enable SpaceX to bring high-

speed, reliable, and affordable broadband service to

consumers in the United States and around the world,

including areas underserved or currently unserved by

existing networks."

Internet connectivity

Allows voice, image, data transmission

Connectivity to cloud allows storage and manipulation of

large data sets

Allows remote diagnosis and treatment - telemedicine

Allows access to communication apps for hearing/sight

impairments

Internet connectivity

Ubiquitous smart phone

technology has potential to

make every cell phone owner a

source of

information/responder

Photos, Location data can be

uploaded and analysed in real

time. Invaluable especially in

remote areas affected by

disaster

In Summary

DRM is facing traditional and new challenges in the 21st C

There are a number of scientific and technological tools which can support DRM practitioners in pre and post-impact planning and response

Successful application of these tools requires close collaboration between DRM/Science/Technology/and vulnerable communities

In Summary

The limiting factor (apart from funding)

likely to be access to power. DRM field

should examine renewables as source of

emergency power. Inexpensive solar

panels now available which could be used

by shelters, CBDRM teams for example.