Dinàmica Macroeconòmica 2019...

Dinàmica Macroeconòmica · Límits del creixement ǀ 27 de setembre de 2019 ǀ 1

DinàmicaMacroeconòmica2019‐2020

“Thosewhobelievethateconomicgrowthcangoonforeverare eithermentallyderangedortheyareeconomists.” Kenneth Boulding (quotedinWijkmanandRockström,2012)

1. TheEhrlichequation(PaulR.Ehrlich)

“TheEhrlichequationstatesthatenvironmental[impact](I)isaproductofpopulation(P)timesaffluenceorincomelevel(A)timesthetechnologicalintensity(T)ofeconomicoutput.

I=PAT

Forcarbondioxideemissionsfromfuelcombustion,forexample,thetotalemissionsaregivenbytheproductofpopulation(P)timesincome(measuredasdollarsofGDP/person)timesthecarbonintensityofeconomicactivity(measuredasgCO2/$)

C=P$/persongCO2/$

Usingthisarithmeticfortheyear2007,whentheglobalpopulationwasabout6.6billion,theaverageincomelevel inconstant2000dollars(atmarketprices)was$5900,andthecarbon intensitywas760gCO2/$,wefindthatthetotalcarbondioxideemissionsCwere:

6.65.90.77=30billiontonnesofCO2.

In1990,whenthepopulationwasonly5.3billionandtheaverageincomewas$4700butcarbonintensitywas860gCO2/$,totalcarbondioxideemissionsCweregivenby:

5.34.70.87=21.7billiontonnesofCO2.”

Jackson, Tim (2008): Prosperity without growth. Economics for a finite planet, Earthscan, London &Sterling,VA.

The PAT formula: I = PAT. The environmental impact I of a society equals the product of population P(demographiccauses/factors),affluenceA(capitalaccumulation)andtechnologyT(AandTsummarizethesocioeconomiccause).ThecomponentAcanbeexpressedas ,where representsthecapitalstock,

populationand aggregateproduction(GDP).Theratio isamesureoftheintensificationoftheeconomy

(howmuch capital per person is available to produce) and the ratio is the average productivity of the

capitalstock(howmuchproductioneachunitofcapitalgenerates).ThecomponentTcanbedecomposedas, where stands for “energy” (so E/Y is the amount of energy per unit of product) and

measurestheenvironmentalimpactperunitofenergyusedinproduction.

2. Economicgrowthisnotsustainable

“Thelegitimacyofthemeanstolivewellispartofthegluethatkeepssocietytogether.Collectivemeaningisextinguishedwhenhopeislost.Moralityitselfisthreatened.Gettingthemechanismrightisvital.Oneofthekeymessagesof this book is thatwe’re failing in that task.Our technologies, our economyandour socialaspirationsareallmis‐alignedwithanymeaningfulexpressionofprosperity.Thevisionof socialprogressthatdrivesus–basedonthecontinualexpansionofmaterialwants–isfundamentallyuntenable.Andthisfailingisnotasimplefallingshortfromutopianideals.Itismuchmorebasic.Inpursuitofthegoodlifetoday,we are systematically eroding the basis for well‐being tomorrow.We stand in real danger of losing anyprospectofasharedandlastingprosperity.”

“Inaworldof finite resources, constrainedbystrictenvironmental limits, still characterizedby ‘islandsofprosperity’within ‘oceans of poverty’, are ever‐increasing incomes for the already‐rich really a legitimatefocus for our continued hopes and expectations? Or is there perhaps some other path towards a moresustainable,amoreequitableformofprosperity?”


“Risingprosperityisn’tself‐evidentlythesamethingaseconomicgrowth.Moreisn’tnecessarilybetter.Untilquite recently, prosperitywasnot cast specifically in termsofmoney at all; itwas simply the opposite ofadversity or affliction. The concept of economic prosperity – and the elision of rising prosperity witheconomic growth – is a modern construction. And it’s a construction that has already come underconsiderable criticism. Amongst the charges against it is that growth has delivered its benefits, at best,unequally.Afifthoftheworld’spopulationearnsjust2percentofglobalincome.Therichest20percentbycontrastearn74percentoftheworld’sincome(…)How–andforhowlong–iscontinuedgrowthpossiblewithoutcomingupagainsttheecologicallimitsofafiniteplanet?”

“The idea of a non‐growing economymay be an anathema to an economist. But the idea of a continuallygrowingeconomyisananathematoanecologist.Nosubsystemofa finitesystemcangrowindefinitely, inphysicalterms.Economistshavetobeabletoanswerthequestionofhowacontinuallygrowingeconomicsystemcanfitwithinafiniteecologicalsystem(…)Theuncomfortablerealityisthatwefindourselvesfacedwith the imminent end of the era of cheap oil, the prospect of steadily rising commodity prices, thedegradationofair,waterandsoil,conflictsoverlanduse,resourceuse,wateruse,forestryandfishingrights,andthemomentouschallengeofstabilizingtheglobalclimate.Andwefacethesetaskswithaneconomythatisfundamentallybroken,indesperateneedofrenewal.Inthesecircumstances,areturntobusinessasusualisnotanoption.Prosperityforthefewfoundedonecologicaldestructionandpersistentsocialinjusticeisnofoundationforacivilizedsociety.”

“Theeconomiccrisisisnotaconsequenceofisolatedmalpracticeinselectedpartsofthebankingsector.Iftherehasbeen irresponsibility, it hasbeenmuchmore systematic, sanctioned from the top, andwithoneclearaiminmind:thecontinuationandprotectionofeconomicgrowth.”

“…threecloselyrelatedpropositionsindefenceofeconomicgrowth.Thefirstisthatopulence–thoughnotsynonymouswithprosperity–isanecessaryconditionforflourishing.Thesecondisthateconomicgrowthiscloselycorrelatedwithcertainbasicentitlements– forhealthoreducation,perhaps– thatareessential toprosperity.Thethirdisthatgrowthisfunctionalinmaintainingeconomicandsocialstability.”


3. Thedilemmaofgrowth

“Putinitssimplestformthe‘dilemmaofgrowth’cannowbestatedintermsoftwopropositions:

• Growth is unsustainable – at least in its current form. Burgeoning resource consumption and risingenvironmentalcostsarecompoundingprofounddisparitiesinsocialwell‐being.

• ‘De‐growth’ is unstable – at least under present conditions. Declining consumer demand leads to risingunemployment,fallingcompetitivenessandaspiralofrecession.”

“Theconventionalresponsetothedilemmaofgrowthistoappealtotheconceptof‘decoupling’.Productionprocessesarereconfigured.Goodsandservicesareredesigned.Economicoutputbecomesprogressivelylessdependent on material throughput. In this way, it is hoped, the economy can continue to grow withoutbreachingecologicallimits–orrunningoutofresources.”

4. Themythofendlessgrowth

“… the conventional view (…) sees societal development and the environment as isolated (…) Theeconomists'models,forexample,focusforemostontherelationshipbetweenproducersandconsumers.Accesstoenergyandrawmaterials–nottomentionecosystemfunctions–havemoreorlessbeentakenfor granted.Wewant to communicate that humanity is facing a critical reality. An abundance ofscientificreports clearly point outthat wearevery close to asaturationpoint,where the biospherecannothandleadditionalstress.”

“Oursocietyhaslongbeenbuilt onthemythofendlessgrowth. Nature'scupboardis perceivedasinfinitelylarge.Natureisalsoaccordedanalmostinfinitecapacitytotakecareofvariouswastesand


pollutants and render them harmless (…) Humanity is living far beyond its means. No previousgenerationhasborrowedsofreelyfromthefuture.”

Wijkman, Anders; Johan Rockström (2012): Bankrupting nature. Denying our planetary boundaries,Routledge,LondonandNewYork.

5. Thenineplanetaryboundaries

Stratosphericozonedepletion

“The stratospheric ozone layer in theatmosphere filters out ultraviolet (UV)radiationfromthesun.Ifthislayerdecreases,increasingamountsofUVradiationwillreachground level. This can cause a higherincidenceofskincancerinhumansaswellasdamage to terrestrial and marine biologicalsystems.”

Lossofbiosphereintegrity(biodiversitylossandextinctions) Chemical pollutionand the releaseofnovelentities

“Emissionsof toxic and long‐lived substancessuch as synthetic organic pollutants, heavymetalcompoundsandradioactivematerialsrepresentsomeofthekey human‐driven changes to the planetary environment. Thesecompounds can have potentially irreversible effects on livingorganismsandonthephysicalenvironment.”

Climatechange

“Recent evidence suggests that the Earth, now passing 390 ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere, has alreadytransgressedtheplanetaryboundaryandisapproachingseveralEarthsystemthresholds.Wehavereachedapointatwhichthelossofsummerpolarsea‐iceisalmostcertainlyirreversible(…)Amajorquestionishowlongwecanremainoverthisboundarybeforelarge,irreversiblechangesbecomeunavoidable.”

Oceanacidification

“AroundaquarteroftheCO2thathumanityemitsintotheatmosphereisultimatelydissolvedintheoceans.Here it forms carbonic acid, altering ocean chemistry and decreasing the pH of the surface water. Thisincreasedacidityreducestheamountofavailablecarbonateions,anessential'buildingblock'usedbymanymarinespeciesforshellandskeletonformation.Beyondathresholdconcentration,thisrisingaciditymakesithardfororganismssuchascoralsandsomeshellfishandplanktonspeciestogrowandsurvive.Lossesofthesespecieswouldchange thestructureanddynamicsofoceanecosystemsandcouldpotentially lead todrastic reductions in fish stocks. Compared to pre‐industrial times, surface ocean acidity has alreadyincreasedby30percent.”

Freshwaterconsumptionandtheglobalhydrologicalcycle

“Waterisbecomingincreasinglyscarce‐by2050abouthalfabillionpeoplearelikelytobesubjecttowater‐stress,increasingthepressuretointerveneinwatersystems.”

Landsystemchange

Thegreenshadedpolygonrepresentsthesafeoperatingspace


“Landisconvertedtohumanuseallovertheplanet.Forests,grasslands,wetlandsandothervegetationtypeshave primarily been converted to agricultural land. This land‐use change is one driving force behind theseriousreductions inbiodiversity,and ithas impactsonwater flowsandon thebiogeochemicalcyclingofcarbon,nitrogenandphosphorusandotherimportantelements.”

Nitrogenandphosphorusflowstothebiosphereandoceans

“Thebiogeochemicalcyclesofnitrogenandphosphorushavebeenradicallychangedbyhumansasaresultofmanyindustrialandagriculturalprocesses.Nitrogenandphosphorusarebothessentialelements forplantgrowth, so fertilizer production and application is themain concern. Human activities now convertmoreatmosphericnitrogenintoreactiveformsthanalloftheEarth'sterrestrialprocessescombined.Muchofthisnewreactivenitrogenisemittedtotheatmosphereinvariousformsratherthantakenupbycrops.Whenitisrainedout,itpolluteswaterwaysandcoastalzonesoraccumulatesintheterrestrialbiosphere.Similarly,arelatively small proportion of phosphorus fertilizers applied to food production systems is taken up byplants;muchof thephosphorusmobilizedbyhumansalso endsup in aquatic systems.These canbecomeoxygen‐starvedasbacteriaconsumethebloomsofalgaethatgrowinresponsetothehighnutrientsupply.Asignificant fractionof theappliednitrogenandphosphorusmakes itswaytothesea,andcanpushmarineandaquaticsystemsacrossecologicalthresholdsoftheirown.”

Atmosphericaerosolloading

“Through their interactionwithwater vapour, aerosolsplay a critically important role in thehydrologicalcycleaffectingcloudformationandglobal‐scaleandregionalpatternsofatmosphericcirculation,suchasthemonsoonsystemsintropicalregions.Theyalsohaveadirecteffectonclimate,bychanginghowmuchsolarradiation is reflected or absorbed in the atmosphere. Humans change the aerosol loading by emittingatmosphericpollution(manypollutantgasescondense intodropletsandparticles),andalso through land‐use change that increases the release of dust and smoke into the air (…) A further reason for an aerosolboundaryisthataerosolshaveadverseeffectsonmanylivingorganisms.Inhalinghighlypollutedaircausesroughly 800,000 people to die prematurely eachyear.”

https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary‐boundaries/planetary‐boundaries/about‐the‐research/the‐nine‐planetary‐boundaries.html

“The concept of 'planetaryboundaries' is quite simple. Thetaskwas,ontheonehand,todefinethe biophysical processes that arecrucialforastabledevelopmentonEarth, and, on the other hand, todetermine the risk of thresholdeffects relative to these processesand identify the key drivers thatcould lead to them.Basedonsuchananalysis,itwasreasonedthatitshouldbepossibletodefineasafeenvironmental space ('safeoperating space') for humandevelopmentonEarth.”

“Economic development today ismanaged as if weare onastraighthighway into the future. Touse a


metaphor,humanityisrushingaheadonthishighwaylikeavehiclewithanoversizedengineandtheheadlightsturnedoffandtherearenoguardrails.Bydefiningtheboundariesforhumandevelopmentontheplanet,theaimistoturnonthecar'sheadlights(tobeabletoassesstherisks)andtoequiptheroad to the furure with guardrails. Such guardrails should be designed to minimize the risk ofundesirablechangesintheconditionsforhumandevelopmentinthefuture.”

“Theplanetaryboundariesdiffer incharacter. Threeofthemaretrulyglobalinnature: maintainingclimatestability,protectingagainststratosphericozonedepletion,andthepreventionofacidificationoftheoceans.Inadditiontothesethreeboundaries,(…)fourcriticalbiophysicalprocesses/systems,alsowithglobaldimensions,thatregulatethefunctionofbiologicalsystemsandwillthusdetermineEarth'sresiliencetofutureshocksandpossiblethresholdeffects.Thesearethenutrientcyclesofnitrogenandphosphorus, the loss ofbiodiversity, the degradation of land resources and theover‐exploitation offreshwater resources.(…)Thetwo remainingareasofconcern(…) the concentrationofpollution fromtoxicchemicalsandaerosolconcentration.”


6. ‘Theoriesfromthe1700scontroltoday'seconomy’

“TofeedtheEarth'sincreasingpopulationisalmostcertainlythebiggestchallengewefaceasaconsequenceof climate change. The paradox is that agriculture is the sector of the economy that contributesmost toclimate change: around a third of greenhouse gas emissions originate from agriculture and are thereforedirectlyrelatedtowhatweeat.Atthesametimeagricultureisthefirstsectortobehitbyclimatechange.”

“Inmodern timeswehavealreadyexperiencedagreenrevolution,whichbroughtaboutadoubling in theproductionofstaplecerealssuchasrice,cornandwheat.ItoccurredinAsiainthe1960s,theresultofanew,modern'farmingpackage'withrefinedhybridseeds,commercialfertilisers,dieselpumpsforirrigation,andpesticides(…)Agenerallessonfromsystemsresearchinecologyandagricultureisthatbiologicaldiversifyprovidesresilienceandstrength,whilemonoculturesincreasevulnerability.”

“Thepresenteconomicmodel isbasedonassumptionsthatgobacktotheinfancyof industrialization.ThetheoryisbasedonthewritingsoftheBritishphilosopherandeconomistAdamSmith(…)WorldpopulationduringSmith'slifetimewaslessthanonebillion.Theworld'stotalGDPwasbarely$200billion.Underthesecircumstancesitwasperfectlyreasonabletoconsidernatureanditsresourcesasinfinitelylarge(…)Wearefacingadifferentreality.Thepopulation isseventimesgreaterand isexpectedto increasebyat least twobillionpeopleby2050.”

“The totalamountof resources isessentiallyagiven.Measured inbiophysical terms, theplanet isactually'shrinking' as fish‐stocks in the oceans are depleted, tropical forests disappear, farmland erodes,groundwater levelsdeclineandbiodiversity isbecomingextinct.Theonlyresourcethatcontinuouslygivesusmoreisthesun,whichwarmstheEarthandwhich,incombinationwithphotosynthesis,canstimulatethegrowthoftherenewableresourcebase(…)Therapiderosionoftheresourcebaseseemstohaveescapedtheattentionofmosteconomists(…)Thetensionbetweennaturalscientistsandeconomistsisnotnew.”

7. Weaknessesintheeconomicmodel

“Thecurrenteconomicmodelisinneedofre‐evaluation.Thecurrentsystemhasatleastsixkeyweaknesses:

Itisuntenablefromthestandpointofclimate,environmentandresources.Whiletruemarketfailurescanbehandledwithinthecurrentframework,itdoesnotatpresentgiveafairvaluationofnaturalcapital.Thesameappliestophenomenasuchasthethresholdeffecsofnon‐linearsystems.AccordingtoIUCN,wehavealreadylost75percentofgeneticdiversityinagriculture.Atthesametimeitisestimatedthatupto70percentofplantsandanimalsfaceextinction.


It isuntenable fromthestandpointof fairness. Incomegapsare increasingrapidly,withincountriesandbefween countries. In the US, 80 per cent of the increase inwealth between 1980 and 2005went to thepercentage of citizens with the highest incomes, leading to frequent claims that 'the middle class isdisappearing'. Ariana Huffington's latest book, ThirdWorld America, is subtitled 'How our politicians areabandoningthemiddleclassandbetrayingtheAmericandream'.Evenmoretenuousisthesituationforthecitizenattheverybottomoftheincomeladder.

Itisunstable.Thecrisisinthefinancialsystemdemonstratesthis.Financialbubblesareaseriousproblem,with ordinary taxpayers being the real losers. The financialmarket is also less able to pursue is primaryobjective,whichistooffercreditforlong‐termandsustainableinvestment.

Itisnotcaþableofcreatingthenecessaryjobs.Especiallyseriousareunemploymentfiguresamongyoungpeople.Thepresenteconomicsystemisnotabletoprovidejobsanddecentlivingstandardsforagrowingshareofworldcitizens.

Itunderperformsintheprovisionofpublicgoods.

Itdoesnot increasewellbeing.A largebodyofstudiesfromanumberofdevelopedcountriesshowsthatonceacertainmaterial standard isachieved, thedegreeofwellbeingdoesnotautomatically increasewithincreasedgrowth.”


8. Theneedtodevelopanecologicalmacroeconomics

“An economy predicated on the perpetual expansion of debt‐driven materialistic consumption isunsustainable ecologically, problematic socially and unstable economically (…) Changing this requires thedevelopmentofanewmacroeconomics for sustainability (…):aneconomicengine thatdoesn’t rely for itsstability on relentless consumption growth and expanding material throughput. Building that newframeworkisanurgentpriority.Policycancontributetothattaskinseveralways.Akeystepistodevelopthe technical capacity forwhatwemight call an ecologicalmacro‐economics. Essentially thiswouldmeanbeingabletounderstandthebehaviourofeconomieswhentheyaresubjecttostrictemissionandresourceuse limits. And to explore how economies might work under different configurations of consumption,investment,labouremploymentandproductivitygrowth.”


9. Fourideasthatwillnotchangetheworld(Steinberg,2015,pp.215‐219)

Misperception 1: technological breakthroughs and scientific advances happen by themselves.Discoveriesarenotself‐propelled:theyoccurinasocialcontext.Politicaldecisionsareafundamentalforceinscientificandtechnologicaldiscoveriesandinnovations.

Misperception2:asocietygrowingricherautomatically improves itsenvironmentalconditions.The

environmentalKuznetscurve(EKC,theconjecturethateconomicgrowthinitiallyharmstheenvironmentandafterwardsimprovesit)doesnotholdforallpollutants.Urbanwastetreatmentseemstobeconsistentwiththe EKC, but carbon dioxide emissions or biodiversity loss do not. Evenwhen EKC holds, itmay be just aspuriouscorrelation:somefactorsimultaneouslycontributestoeconomicgrowthandenvironmentalquality.

Misperception3:a good strategy to solve environmentalproblems is to letmarketsoperate freely(without environmental regulations). Markets will not save the planet. Environmental quality andsustainabilityarebothpublicgoodsandunregulatedmarketsare inadequate institutions toprovidepublicgoods(privateagentsunderinvestinsuchgoods).


Misperception 4: individual decisions and local, isolated initiatives are sufficient to solve globalproblems.Workinginisolation(likerecyclingalone)isnotpowerfulenoughtoaddressthebiggerissues.Itisonly through active engagement in politics that major improvements in environmental quality will beachieved.Thismisperceptionisaninstanceofthefallacyofcomposition:whatistrueorworksatsomescale,isalsotrueorworksata largerscale.Bigenvironmentalproblemsrequireanadequatematch:tothinkbigandchangerules.Installingsolarpanelsathomeisamoveintherightdirectionbutenvironmentallegislationhasthescopeforinducingrealchange.

Steinberg,PaulF.(2015):Whorules theEarth?Howsocialrulesshapeourplanetandour lives,OxfordUniversityPress,Oxford.10. Limitstogrowth(Meadowsetal.,2005)

Increasingcostofsustaininggrowth.Anexpandingpopulationcombinedwithanincreasingaccumulationof physical capital requires more resources to be diverted to cope with global ecological constraints(depletablenaturalresourcesandlimitedabsorptioncapacityofemissions).Thiswilleventuallyrestrainthecapacityofexpandingproductionandthesustainabilityofeconomicgrowth.

Scenarios. The inability to continuosuly sustain an expansion of production will cause a population

contraction.(1)Theendofgrowthtaketheformofacollapse(rapiddeclineinoutput,population,healthandanincreaseinconflict, inequality,ecologicaldevastationfollowingagrowthovershoot).(2)ItmaytaketheformofasmoothadaptationtotheEarth’ssupportcapacity(throughsomecorrectiveaction).

The big question. Has humanity already overshot the Earth’s carrying capacity (surpassed the global

ecologicalconstraints?). Evidenceofsoftlandingorapparentsuccessinattainingsustainablegrowth?Duringthelastdecades:

new technologies to lower pollution have been developed, consumers have adapted habits, internationalagreementshavebeensigned,newinstitutionshaveemerged,higherincomelevelshavereducedpopulationgrowth,morewidespread awareness of environmental problems…humanity already overshot the Earth’scarryingcapacity.

The global challenge. A sustainable world economy demands that the poorer countries reach higher

consumption levels. This transition will have to be accompanied with technological, social and politicalchanges consistent with long run goals. Those changes will need decades, but meanwhile the ecologicalfootprintsofhumanitybecomesbigger.

Three outlooks. (1) Optimism: with adequate

information, people will choose the right solution(global solutions to avert overshoot or, at least,collapse). (2) Cynicism: people will not stopresponding to just short term goals and will notsacrifice current welfare levels to benefit futuregenerations(realitywillbeignored).(3)Middleroad:lessons will be learned the hard way (a sustainablepathwillbereached,andcollapseaverted,onlyafterhaving suffered global crises resulting from inactionor insufficient responses, but at the price ofexhausting resources, losing attractive options,suffering more inequality and tolerating moreconflict).

Meadows,Donella; JorgenRanders;DennisMeadows(2005): Limits to growth: The 30‐year update,Earthscan,London.


11. DynamicsofWorld3(Meadowsetal.,2005,ch.4)

World3.World3isamodeloftheworldeconomybyMeadowsetal.(2005)“tounderstandthebroadsweepof the future”: theways inwhich theworld economywill interactwith theEarth’s carrying capacity overmanydecades.

Ways toapproach thecarryingcapacity. Continuousgrowth, convergence to thecarryingcapacity from

below,overshootwith cyclical convergenceandovershoot followedwith collapse (see the chartsonp.7).TheauthorsbelievethattheworldeconomyisalreadyabovetheEarth’scarryingcapacity(overshoot).

Feedback loops. Figs. 1 and 2 below show the feedback relationships regulation population growth and

capital accumulation. Fig. 1 displays the connection between population and capital that goes throughagriculture;Fig.2,theonethatgoesthroughresourcesandservices.

Scenario 1. In Scenario 1 (see Fig. 3) the computer model World3 is run with parameter values that

representthecontinuationofthepaththeworldeconomyfollowedduringthe20thcentury.Populationandproductionincreaseuntiltheresourcelimitisreached.Theimpossibilityofmaintainingresourceflowsleadtoafallinoutputandlifeexpectancyandariseindeathrates.

Scenario 6. In Scenario 2 (see Fig. 4) the economy develops simultaneously (costly) technologies for

pollutionabatement,landyieldenhancement,landprotection,andconservationofnonrenewableresources.Fullimplementationofthesetechnologiestakestwodecadesbutintheendtheeconomyisrelativelylargeandprosperous(thoughbelowthetopleveleverreached).

Fig.1.FeedbackLoopsofPopulation,Capital, Fig.2.FeedbackLoopsofPopulation,Capital,Agriculture,andPollution(Meadowsetal.,2005,p.144) Services,andResources(Meadowsetal.,2005,p.145)12. Emptyvsfullworld

Theworld is facingaperfectstormofproblems:overpopulation, overconsumption, environ‐mentallymalign technologies, inequalities. All ofthemseemsustainedbytheirrationalbeliefthatpermanent growth is possible in a phusicallyfinite economy. They are also the expression oftheconflictbetweenwhateconomistsbelieveandwhat physicists know. The dominant economicviews and theories were created in an “empty


world”: one in which population was small, natural resources did not represent a limit and theenvironment had enough capacity to absorb wastes. Economies in an empty world do not faceplanetaryboundaries.Ifa“fullworld”damagestotheenvironmentandwastesplayadominantrole.Ontherightaprojectionoftheworldeconomyunderabusiness‐as‐usualassumption:thelogicofanemptyworldisappliedtoafullworld.

Horgan, John (2015):The end of science: Facing the limits of knowledge in the twilight of thescientificage,BasicBooks,NewYork.

Fig.3.Scenario1ofWorld3(Meadowsetal.,2005,p.169)Fig.4.Scenario6ofWorld3(Meadowsetal.,2005,p.219)13. Peopleistheultimateresource(Simon,1996)

Morepeople,good.“Addingmorepeopletoanycommunitycausesproblems,butpeoplearealsothemeanstosolvetheseproblems.Themainfueltospeedtheworld’sprogressisourstockofknowledge,andthebrakeisourlackofimagination.Theultimateresourceispeople—skilled,spirited,hopefulpeople—whowillexerttheirwillsandimaginationsfortheirownbenefitaswellasinaspiritoffaithandsocialconcern.Inevitablytheywillbenefitnotonly themselvesbut thepoorandtherestofusaswell.”Havingmorepeoplecreatesmoreproblemsbutpeoplearethemeanstosolvethem.

Naturalresources.“…oursuppliesofnaturalresourcesarenotfiniteinanyeconomicsense.Nordoespast

experiencegive reason toexpectnatural resources tobecomemorescarce.Rather, ifhistory is anyguide,


natural resources will progressively become less costly, hence less scarce, and will constitute a smallerproportionofourexpensesinfutureyears.”Thesameconclusionissaidtoapplytoenergy:morepeoplewillspeedthedevelopmentofcheapenergysupplies.

Doomsters.“Thedoomstersreplythatbecausetherearemoreofus,weareerodingthebasisofexistence,

andrenderingmorelikelya‘crash’duetopopulation‘overshoot’;thatis,theysaythatourpresentorgreaternumbersarenotsustainable.Butthesignsofincipientcatastropheareabsent.Lengthoflifeandhealthareincreasing,suppliesoffoodandothernaturalresourcesarebecomingevermoreabundant,andpollutantsinourenvironmentaredecreasing.”

Theworld’sproblem. “Theworld’s problem is not toomany people, but lack of political and economic

freedom.Powerfulevidencecomesfrompairsofcountriesthathadthesamecultureandhistoryandmuchthesamestandardof livingwhentheysplitapanafterWorldWarII—EastandWestGermany,NorthandSouthKorea,TaiwanandChina.”

Simon’sview:therearenolimits.“Intheshortrun,allresourcesarelimited.Anexampleofsuchafinite

resource is the amount of attention that you will devote to what I write. The longer run, however, is adifferent story. The standard of living has risen along with the size of the world’s population since thebeginningofrecordedtime.There isnoconvincingeconomicreasonwhythesetrendstowardabetter lifeshouldnotcontinueindefinitely.”

Theeconomicdynamics thathasworked in thepastprojected in the futuread infinitum(whathas

happened is not a fortuitous chain of circumstances). “Greater consumption due to an increase inpopulationandgrowthofincomeheightensscarcityandinducespricerun‐ups.Ahigherpricerepresentsanopportunitythatleadsinventorsandbusinesspeopletoseeknewwaystosatisfytheshortages.Somefail,atcosttothemselves.Afewsucceed,andthefinalresultisthatweendupbetteroffthaniftheoriginalshortageproblemshadneverarisen.(…)Themostimportantbenefitofpopulationsizeandgrowthistheincreaseitbringstothestockofusefulknowledge.(…)Progressislimitedlargelybytheavailabilityoftrainedworkers.In the long run the basic forces influencing the state of humanity and its progress are (a) the number ofpeoplewho are alive to consume, but also to produce goods and knowledge; and (b) the level ofwealth.Thosearethegreatvariableswhichcontroltheadvanceofcivilization.”

What isnew. What differentiates our age from previous ages is the fall in mortality and the rise of life

expectation. What is common is the desire for improvement, the continuous search for betterment. Toachievethis,complacencymustbeavoided:improvementneedseffort.

Simon,JulianLincoln(1996):Theultimateresource2,PrincetonUniversityPress,Princeton,NJ.14. Thetechnologicalbluff(Ellul,1990)

Oppositionbetweenpeopleandmachines.Peopleadaptbadlytomoderntechniques:peopledonotadaptto machines nor machines to people. There is a permanent maladaptation between the social and thetechnicalworld.Societiesevolveslowly;techniquesandmachinesevolvequickly.Societiesrelyonthepast(habits,traditions,rules,conventions);technologieslookatthefuture.

Thegreattechnicalinnovation.Theeventualintegrationofthesocialintothetechnicalworld,fromwhich

anewhumanitywillemerge. Technolatry.EllulviewsSimon’soveroptimisticclaimsaspseudoscientificabsurdities:Simonjustprojects

tendencies(withoutjustifyingonwhichgroundstheprojectionislegitimate)andsimplypresumesthateverydiscovery/inventionwillhavebeneficialeffects(masqueradinginconvenientphenomenaforhistheses,likethesimultaneityofruraldepopulationandurbanoverpopulation).Whatisgoodinacomputervirus?

Riseofthetechnocrats.“Thetechnocratshaveastrangeblindnesstothecomplexrealityoftheworldand

tothelessonsofcommonsense(e.g.,thatnosystemcangrowindefinitelyinaclosedandfiniteuniverse,atruth that they treat sarcastically). Their great knowledge and narrow specialization prevent them from


understandingquestionsoutsidetheirfield.Yettheywriteauthoritativelyabouttomorrow'sworld(…)Theyarethusplungedintoelectronicsandcomputerswithoutathoughtthatperhapsinthefuturebeingabletotillabitofgroundorlightawoodfireordopropergroomingmightbemoreusefulthanbeingabletotaponakeyboard.Suchistheircasualignoranceofmostofwhatconstitutesourworld(…)TheyimmediatelyretortthatwhatopponentswantisareturntotheMiddleAges.Astheyseeit,therehastobegrowth.Theywillnotacceptanyotherhypothesis.Theyfindtheirjustificationinthefactthatincreasinglyeverythingdependsontheapplicationoftechniques.Notonlyistechniquegood,notonlyisitindispensable,butalso(…)italonecanalsoachieveall thathumanbeingshavebeenseekingthroughoutthecenturies: liberty,democracy, justice,happiness(byahighstandardofliving),reductionofwork,etc.”

Technologyisambivalent.Techniqueandtechnologyarenotneutral:theymayhavegoodandbadeffects.

Fortechnologicaloptimists,technologyisgloballygood.Technology’sambivalenceiscapturedbyfortheses:

(1) all technical progress has its price (creation involves destruction, frequently people’s lives: noprogressisfreefromshadows);

(2) at each stage it raisesmore and greater problems than it solves (law that problems growwith thegrowthoftechniques);

(3) its harmful effects are inseparable from its beneficial effects (cars generate congestion; more andcheaper food available, obesity): favourable effects tend to be apparent in the short‐term (and beconcreteandclearlyidentifiable),whereasthenegativeeffectstendtobecomeevidentisthelongrun(andareperhapsdiffuseandabstract);

(4) apart from the desired and the foreseen, it has a great number of unforeseen effects (surgicalinterventionsreplaceoneinfirmitybyanother;cultivationimpoverishesthesoil;unexpectedharmfuleffectsofDDT;accidentsofnewtechnologies).

Technology isessentiallyunpredictable.Technicalchange isnot teleological: ithasnogoal.There isno

predetermineddestinationfortechnicalchange:itiserrhatic.Therefore,itisunpredictable(andthatmakessocialevolutionalsounpredictable).

TheparadoxofHarveyBrooks. The costs and riskof anew technology areusually assumedby a small

fractionofthepopulation,whileitsadvantagestendtobewidespread.

Ellul,Jacques(1990):Thetechnologicalbluff, W.B.EerdmansPublishing15. TheSenecaeffect

TheSenecaeffect.“Increasesareofsluggishgrowth,butthewaytoruinisrapid.”(Nunc incrementa lenteexeunt,festinaturindamnum,LuciusAnneausSeneca,LetterstoLucilius91,6.)

Taxonomyofcollapses.(1)Blackelephants(DonaldRumsfeld’s‘knownunknowns’).Youchoosetoignore

(or understimate the effects of) an elephant that you know is in the room (a pyramid scheme). (2)Grayswans.Aspecificoccurrenceofthiskindofeventcannotbepredictedbutitsfrequencycanbedetermined(soprecautionsagainstitcouldbetaken:earthquakes).(3)DragonKings.Theyareoutliersofadistributionin terms of their large size (the size of Paris in comparisonwith the rest of French cities). Though theirexistenceisconceivableonthebasisofsometrend,theyarelargelyunpredictableandnoprecautionagainstthemisinpracticefeasible.(4)Blackswans(DonaldRumsfeld’s‘unknownunknowns’).Theylieoutsidethedistribution: they are absolutely unpredictable (financial crashes, massive terrorist attacks) and are thencapableofgeneratingthebiggestcollapses.

Tiffany’sfallacy.Existenceofresourcescannotbeequatedtohavingthem:toactuallygetknownresources

onemust invest other resources to locate, reach, extract, process and transport them (in the 1961movieBreakfast at Tiffany’s the female leading character enjoyed having breakfast while looking at jewels ondisplaybehindaglass,whichisnotthesamethingaspossessingthejewels).

Bardi, Ugo (2017): The Seneca effect: Why growth is slow but collapse is rapid, Springer, Cham,Switzerland.


16. ‘Theparadoxofourtimes’,Held(2010,p.4)

Theparadox is that the current collective issues (or core sets of problems) increasingly trascendpoliticalbordersbutthetoolstohandletheseissuesareinadequateorinsufficient(problemsaddressedinanadhocmanner, lack of coordination among international institutions, not accountable global organizations). Theparadoxexpressesaproblemofglobalgovernance:globalproblemscannotbesolvedatthenationallevelorby nations acting alone. Worse still, the gap between the need for global solutions and the inability ofmultilateralinstitutionstomeetthatneedisgrowing.

Held,David(2010):Cosmopolitanism:Idealsandrealities,PolityPress,Cambridge,UK.17. Technologicalprogressasasocialstruggle

The evolution of technology (which technologies become triumphant) cannot be explained on exclusivelytechnicalconsiderations.Technologycanalwaysfollowalternativepathsanditissocialforcesthatselectthepathtofollow:technologiesareinvolvedinaprocessofeliminationoftechnologicaldesignswhoseoutcomeissociallydetermined(bythestrugglebetweensocialgroupspursuingtheirinterests).

Onceatechnologicaldesignwinsoutandisadoptedasthestandard,thetechnologymaybeusedforpurposesdifferent from the onemotivating the technology. Initially, education and public programming dominatedradio broadcasting; similarly, television was originally conceived for surveillance and education. Whenbusinessesgainedcontroloverthetwotechnologiestheytransformedthemintoentertainmentmedia.

Feenberg,Andrew;Norm Friesen (eds) (2012): (Re)Inventing the Internet: Critical case studies, SensePublishers,Rotterdam.18. Howdeterministicisthehistoryoftechnology?

Heilbroner (1967) contends that technological development must proceed in a relatively fixed sequence:somedevelopmentsmustnecessarilyprecedeothers.Forinstance,societiesmustpassthroughthehand‐millbefore making a transition to the steam‐mill, which is necessary to moving to hydroelectric plants; ormasteringelectricityisnecessarybeforemasteringnuclearpower.

Evidenceforthedeterministicview.(1)Examplesofsimultaneousinventionsanddiscoveries.(2)Absenceof technological leaps. Most technological advances seem to be incremental and evolutionary. (3)Predictability of technology. There are two constraints to technological capacity in a given time: theaccumulatedstockofavailableknowledge(whichonlyexpandsgradually)andtheleveloftechnicalexpertise(thematerialcompetence).Bothdeterminetheabilityofindustriestoproducetheequipmentcorrespondingtohighertechnologicallevels.Thatabilityalsodependsonthesizeofthecapitalstock.Hence,withincertainlimits,atleasttheshort‐tomediium‐runevolutionoftechnologyappearspredictable.

Does technology create social orders? That is, does technology impose social and political traits onsocietiesthatadoptsthetechnology?Thereareatleasttwoelementsofinfluence:thecompositionoflabourforceandthehierarchicalorganizationofwork.

Some questions on technology. What fuels technology? Itself? Is the recent explosive technologicaldevelopmentabubble?Istechnologynecessarilyexpansionary?Aretherelimitsfortechnologicalexpansion?Istechnologypotentiallyaperpetuummobile?Whataretheessentialresourcesfortechnologicalgrowth?Arethese resources exhaustible?Can technology’s strainof nature reach a limit point?Will technologybe thenew nature? Could a newnature be technologically built? Are the laws of nature subject to technologicalmanipulation?Canlawsofnaturebetechnologicallycreatedormodified?

Heilbroner,RobertL.(1967):“Domachinesmakehistory?”,Technology&Culture8,335‐345.

Economic revolutionby confluenceof technologies. A confluence of technologieswill lead to the nextproduction revolution: digital technologies (3D printing, internet of things, advanced robotics), newmaterials (bio‐ or nano‐based) and newprocesses (datadriven production, artificial intelligence, syntheticbiology).

OECD (2017): The next production revolution: Implications for governments and business, OECDPublishing,Paris.http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264271036‐en


19. Iscapitalismeventuallyself‐destructive?

Theindustrialcapitalistsocietyhascreatedachasmbetweensocietyandnature,whentheformercannot subsist independently of the latter. By destroying nature, the capitalist society destroysitself. The expansionary trends of a global capitalist economy places burdens on the planet andendangersitsregenerativecapacity.

20. Anthropocene

Term coined by atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen that refers to the geological epoch in whichhumanityiscapableofcausingshort‐termchangesintheplanet.Frontsonwhichtheplanetisbeingassaulted by human activities: climate, ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone depletion, thenitrogen and the phosphorus cycles, global freshwater use, land use, biodiversity loss, chemicalpollution.Thetermcapturestheideathatbiogeochemicalcycles,theatmosphere,theocean,andtheearth system as a whole are no longer immune to the human economy. It is preceded by theHolocene(theperiodstarted10k‐12kyearsago)

21. Theglobalecologicalrift

Theglobalecologicalriftrepresentsthebreakintherelationshipbetweentheworldeconomyandtheplanetarisingfromacontinouslyexpandingworldeconomy.Thereareinsurmountablephysicalboundaries toeconomicexpansionbeyondwhich theplanet’secologicalviability iscompromised.Aretherethresholds(tippingpoints)forthosefrontsfromwhichnoreturnispossible?Hasanyofthosethresholdsbeenalreadycrossed?

22. Socialvsnaturalscientists(‘thetwocultures’)

Social scientists do not appear to have risen to the challenge: even if the global problem isacknowledged, no real attack has been proposed or deemed necessary. “Sustainable (green)capitalism”isclaimedtoprovidethesolution.Therealobjectiveseemstobepreservingcapitalismratherthanpreservingtheplanet.“Saving”theplanetisanewopportunitytomakeprofits.Anewcapitalism can coexistwith the planet. It is natural scientistswho appear to bemore concernedabouttheburdensindustrialcapitalismimposesontheplanet.Social sciences and social order. J. D. Bernal: “the backwardness and emptiness of the socialsciencesareduetotheoverridingreasonthatinallclasssocietiestheyareinevitablycorrupt”.Thereasonforthecomparativeunderdevelopmentofthesocialsciencesisthattheyarecircumscribedbyandoftensubservienttotheestablishedorderofpower.Socialsciencesseeminpracticemoreconcernedwithpreservingtheexistingsocialorderthanfacilitating(necesaryordesirable)changesin the social order. In normal circumstances, the social sciences do not lead: they follow (stablesocialenvironmentcreatesaconservativesocialscience).Whenthesocialorderisdisrupted,socialscienceshavethebestopportunitytoadvanceandmakerelevantachievements.Socialsciences.Mainstreamsocialsciencehasdevelopedastaticandahistorical(sometimesanti‐historical)characterandadoptedreductionism,abstractempiricism,andanti‐naturalism(divorcefromthenaturalenvironmentinwhichsocietiesexists).

“Littleornothinginhumansocietymakessenseexceptinthelightofhistory”.

Foster,JohnBellamy;BrettClark;RichardYork(2010):Theecologicalrift:Capitalism’swarontheearth,MonthlyReviewPress,NewYork.

23. HermanDaly’simpossibilitytheorem

“It is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmentaldegradation.Inotherwords,sustainablegrowthisimpossible”.


24. Westerncivilization=cancerfortheEarth

“Our civilization thus operates in the sameway as a cancerous cell that goes on destroying theorganismoffwhichitlives.”(p.3)

de Rivero,Oswaldo (2010): Themyth of development: Non‐viable cconomies and the crisis ofcivilization,ZedBooks,LondonandNewYork.

25. TheMalthusianlaw:humanitycannotdefeatnature

ThomasRobertMalthus(1766–1834)putforwardthethesisthatpopulationgrowthis(atleasteventually)fasterthanagriculturalgrowth(foodproduction)andthat,infact,populationtendstoincreasebeyondthenumbersthatcanbefed.Thisthesisquestionedthesustainabilityofanincreasingpopulation.Asaresultofthedifferentpotential capacityofpopulation and food supplies to expand, a continuedpopulationgrowthwillbenegativelycheckedbyfoodshortages,poverty,deprivationanddiseases.Hence, ifpopulationisnotpositively checked (measures that reduce fertility), its growth will come to an end through famine(insufficientfoodsupply).Malthusdidnotseeintechnologicalprogressanescapefromthislaw:increasesinpopulation are alwaysdangerous and stimulatedby increasingprosperity, so technological improvementsmerely increase the size of population checked down by famine. Amodern, environmental version of theMalthusianlawisthatpopulationgrowthis,bynecessity,limitedbythenaturalenvironment.

TheMalthusian view. By extension, a Malthusian view can be defined according to which population(populationgrowth,specifically) is thesourceofallproblems.Acontinuedpopulationgrowthwillworsenexistingproblemsandgeneratenewones.AccordingtoRobertMay(1993),“thecontinuinggrowthofhumanpopulations(…)istheenginethatdriveseverything.”

26. KennethBoulding’stheoremsonpopulation

The Dismal Theorem. If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then thepopulationwillgrowuntilitismiserableenoughtostopitsgrowth.

TheUtterlyDismalTheorem.Technicalimprovementscanonlyrelievemiserytemporarily:since,byTheDismalTheorem,miserywill ultimately checkpopulation, the final result of any technical improvement isincreasetheamountofpeoplethatwillliveinmiseryand,accordingly,thetotalamountofhumanmisery.

TheModeratelyCheerfulFormDismalTheorem.Ifmiseryandstarvationisnottheonlywaytokeepaprosperouspopulationincheck,populationdoesnothavetogrowuntilitismiserableandstarves,soitcanbestablyprosperous.

27. Bartlett’sLawsofSustainability

“Populationgrowthand/orgrowthintheratesofconsumptionofresourcescannotbesustained”.

“The largerthepopulationofasocietyand/or the larger itsratesofconsumptionofresources, themoredifficultitwillbetotransformthesocietytoaconditionofsustainability”.

Thesetwolawsimplythattheconceptofsustainablegrowthisanoxymoron.

28. WaltDisney’sFirstLaw

“Wishingwillmakeitso.”(A.A.Bartlett).Avariation,intheformofaPonzi‐typemotto,is:“Wecangrowourwayoutoftheproblems.”Anexample:JulianSimon’s(1995)claimthat“Evenifnonewknowledgewereevergained(…)wewouldbeabletogoonincreasingourpopulationforever.”

Bartlett, Albert A. (1998): “Malthusmarginalized: Themassivemovement tomarginalize theman’smessage”,TheSocialContract,239‐252

Boulding,Kenneth(1971):“ForewordtoT.R.Malthus,Population,TheFirstEssay”,inCollectedPapers,Vol.II,ColoradoAssociatedUniversityPress,Boulder,pp.137‐142.


Bartlett, A.A., (1994), “Reflections on sustainability, population growth, and the environment”,Population&Environment16(1),pp.5‐35.29. Globalenvironmentalthreats

Ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone layer (acting like a sunscreen) absorbs the portion of theultravioletlight(UV‐Bradiation)thatisharmfultomostlifeonEarth(UV‐Bradiationcausedamagetoeyes,skin,geneticmaterial, the immunesystem…).ExcessiveUV‐Bexposure is likely tocompound itseffectsonthe ecosystemwithother global environmental threats: globalwarming, ocean acidification andpollution.The 2008 Antarctic ozone holewas one of the largestand most long‐lived. The biggest ozone hole over theArcticoccurredin2011.

Abbasi,S.A.;TasneemAbbasi(2017):Ozonehole:Past,present,future,Springer,NewYork.

Thevirtue isnotalwayson themiddleground. Oncertain debates that rely on matters of fact andobjective information (like climate change) supportingthe view that there are two equal sides implicitlyjustifiesbad‐faithskepticism(skepticismthatdoesnot

intend toimproveunderstanding ofrealityand thatsimplyclaims that it is legitimate todoubtabouteverything).Regarding the issue of whether climate change is human‐caused, the weight of the sides (publishing scientists) issomethinglike97%against3%.

Thehockeystickcurve. It is a graphdepicting temperature trends in the

lastmillennium.Itshowstheunprecedentednatureofmodernglobalwarming.Thescientificcommunityhasreachedageneralconsensusthatclimatechangeisreal(itisactuallyoccurring),causedbytheactivityofhumanbeingsandalreadyaproblem.

CO2emissions.Human activity generates morethan30billiontonsofCO2pollutionperyear.Averaging theweightof ahuman being at 70 kg, these 30gigatons are equivalent to theweight of 428,5 billion people. SotheannualweightofCO2emissionsis some 60 times the total numberofpeopleontheEarth.


Ecologicalfootprint.Theecologicalfootprintisan estimate of the amount of resources,production, consumptionandwasteusedbyanindividual.Itsunitsareplanetunits:thenumberofplanetEarthsneededifeveryindividuallivedthe way the individual lives. This footprint isgrowing. Total human demands exceededEarth’s biocapacity around 1980. Currently thedemand requires the equivalent biocapacity of1.5Earthstofeed,providematerials,regenerate,self‐replenishandabsorbwastes.

Energy use. At the onset of the agriculturalrevolution (some 10,000 years ago) farmersused20megajoulesofenergy(physical labor)daily. The average North American nowoperates daily on at least 1,000 megajoules.The current global average is around 250megajoules.Has humanity been climately fortunate?DuringtheHolocene,thelast12,000years,theglobal climate has been relatively constant.Average global surface temperature: 15⁰C.Regionaldecadal‐averagetemperaturesrarelyhave exceeded 2⁰C. In Europe, temperatures between the peak Medieval Warm and the Little Ice Age nadirdifferedbysome1.5⁰C.Sothetrajectoryoftheworldeconomysincetheagriculturalrevolutionhasbeenblessedby a (extraordinary?) stable global climate.Howmuch could this lucky conditions last?Now,humanity faceschanges in the global climate greater and faster than anything in recordedhumanhistory.Theworldmaybeheadingtowardsanaverageglobalwarmingofupto4⁰Cduringthe21stcentury.30. MessageonClimateChangetoWorldLeaders

“Human‐induced climate change is an issue beyond politics. It transcends parties, nations, and evengenerations.For the first time inhumanhistory, theveryhealthof theplanet, and therefore thebases forfutureeconomicdevelopment,theendofpoverty,andhumanwellbeing,areinthebalance.IfwewerefacinganimminentthreatfrombeyondEarth,thereisnodoubtthathumanitywouldimmediatelyuniteincommoncause.The fact that the threat comes fromwithin—indeed fromourselves—and that itdevelopsoveranextendedperiodoftimedoesnotaltertheurgencyofcooperationanddecisiveaction.”

Signedbyover4,000scientistsworldwide,July‐August2014.

Mann,MichaelE.;TomHoles(2016):Themadhouseeffect:Howclimatechangedenialisthreateningourplanet,ColumbiaUniversityPress,NewYork.

Maslin,Mark(2014):Climatechange:Averyshortintroduction,OxfordUniversityPress,Oxford,UK.

McMichael, Anthony J.; AlistairWoodward; Cameron Muir (2017): Climate change and the health ofnations:Famines,fevers,andthefateofpopulations,OxfordUniversityPress,NewYork.

NationalAcademyofSciences;TheRoyalSociety(non‐dated):Climatechange:Evidenceandcauses.

Westergård, Rune (2018): One planet is enough: Tackling climate change and environmental threatsthroughtechnology,Cham,Switzerland.


31. TheShockDoctrine

How do societies respond to extreme shocks, like wars, natural disasters, economic crises, epidemics,terrorism? Naomi Klein contends that, in the last decades, corporate interests have exploited episodes ofcrisis to the advantage of a small elite. This has been achieved by promoting and supporting policiesbeneficialtotheelite(privatization,deregulation,socialspendingcuts…)andbyrestrainingcivillibertiesandrights.Kleinclaimsthatclimatechangeisanotheropportunitytoapplytheshockdoctrine:insteadofseeingtheimplementationofmeasurestoaddressthecauseoftheproblem,weshouldexpecttheclimatechangecrisistobeexploitedtotransfermorebenefitsandprivilegestothetop1%.Forinstance,financialinvestorswill use this opportunity to gamble on possible futures; insurance companies will devise and sell newprotection schemes to the potential victims of the crisis; commons privatized; new markets will arise(markets for carbon credits) to exploit lucratively a potentially disastrous situation… No opportunity toprofitingfromdisasterwillbemissed.

Klein,Naomi(2014):Thischangeseverything:Capitalismvs.theclimate,Simon&Schuster,NewYork.

Klein,Naomi(2007):Theshockdoctrine:Theriseofdisastercapitalism,MetropolitanBooks,NewYork.

32. TheTragedyoftheCommons:“freedominacommonsbringsruintoall”

The ‘tragedyof thecommons’ isparablequestioningthe ideathatunregulatedmarketsyieldsociallygoodoutcomes:self‐interestiseventuallyinconsistentwithsocialstability.Thetragedyappliestotheexploitationofafreeresource(acommon),likeapasture.Self‐interestcompelseveryherdsmantomaximizethecattleonthepasture.Butifasufficientlylargenumberofherdsmendevelopthesamestrategyofincreasingtheherdwithoutrestrictions,thepasturewillbeexhaustedandalltheherdsmenwillberuinedfortryingtotaketoomuchfromthepasture.Hence,acommonlyownedandfreely accessible resource tends to be depletedwhenitisexploitedbyasufficientlylargenumberofpeople.Infinitedemandsarenotconsistentwithafiniteand fragile supply. The logic of the tragedy of the commons seems to explain resource depletion andenvironmental degradation: taking without concern for preservation (the present mattersmore than thefuture).

Hardin,Garrett(1968):“Thetragedyofthecommons”,Science162(3859),1243‐1248.

Machan, TiborR. (ed) (2001): The commons: Its tragedies and other follies,Hoover Institution Press,Stanford,CA.

33. Lawofacceleratingreturnsandthesingularity

Ray Kurzweil’s law of accelerating returns holds that the rate of evolution inherently accelerates, showscontinualacceleration(everystageinevolutionusesthecapabilitiesandresultsfromthepreviousstageand,foreachstage,goingfromonestagetothenexttakesashortertime).Six epochs of evolution (Ray Kurzweil). These epochs express the continued evolution of information:physics and chemistry (information captured by patterns of matter and energy); biology and DNA (self‐replicatingmechanismscreated:life);brains(mechanismstoacquireandprocessinformationbiologically);technology (human creations); merger of human technology with human intelligence; and “the universewakesup”(“the‘dumb’matterandmechanismsoftheuniversewillbetransformedintoexquisitelysublimeformsofintelligence,whichwillconstitutethesixthepochintheevolutionofpatternsofinformation.ThisistheultimatedestinyoftheSingularityandoftheuniverse”,Kurzweil,2005,ch.1).TheSingularity(RayKurzweil).Itistheeradefinedbyintelligencebecomingnonbiologicalandcountlessoftimes higher than the current level of human intelligence as a result of rapid technological change. Theimpactofthischangewilltransformhumanlife:biologicallimitationswillbetrascendedout,creativitywillbeamplified,humansandmachineswillbecomeintegrated,wecouldoccupydifferentbodiesandallhumanproblemswillbesolved(aging,illness,pollution,hunger,poverty…evendeath).Nanotechnologywillmakeitpossible to produce anything inexpensively. The Singularity culminates the merger of biology withtechnology:itisthetimewhenmachineintelligencemergeswith,andsurpasses,humanintelligence.


Thelawofacceleratingreturnsandrelated‘laws’workuntiltheystopworking(PaulAllen).Aresuchlawssimple, not guaranteed extrapolations of past regularities and trends? What ensures that end of atechnologicalparadigm(vacuumtubes)isfollowedbyanewone(transistors)?

34. Technology

Aconceptualizationoftechnology(W.BrianArthur).Atechnologyisameanstofulfillapurposeorneedby reliably exploiting some natural effect or phenomenon. A technology puts together assemblies, whichworktogetheronthegroundsofsomebaseprincipleofthetechnology(forinstance,countingthebeatsofastable frequency is thebaseprincipleof a clock).Thebaseprincipleof a technology is the ideaofusingaphenomenon to accomplish some purpose. In sum, a technology involves a purpose, an architecture ofcomponentsandaphenomenonexploitedbysomebaseprinciple:technologiestakeadvantageofpredictableand replicable events. Innovation can be seen as the discovery of new links (base principles) betweenpurposesandphenomenathatcanbeexploitedtomeetthepurposes.Inventionisthenaprocessconnectingapurposewithaprinciplethatcansatisfyit.

General approaches to the relationship between technology and society. (1) Internalist approach:technology develops in isolation from society. (2) Technological determinism: certain inventions orinnovationscausemajorchangesinsociety(socialdevelopmentisrelatedtothedevelopmentoftechniques).(3)Dialecticalapproach:technologicalandsocialchangesinteractmutually.

African societies as example of the lack of adoption of superior technologies (resistance to foreignideas). (i) Tools from Eurasian preindustrial technology (cart, plow, potter’s wheel) were not adopted,despite contact with Eurasia. (2) Advanced industrial technology was imported but not successfullyintegrated with existing locally‐based economic structures. African economies remain based on humanenergyand linear‐reciprocalmotion (non‐humanenergysourcesand technologiesbasedonrotarymotiondid not spread). Despite exposition to presumably more advanced technologies, material and culturalreasons led to a general rejection of the technologies. The technological gap with Eurasia reinforcedrejection:theintroductionofmoreadvancedproductiontechnologiesinprecolonialAfricafailedtogeneratetransformations in the rest of the economy (failed to create an economywhere those technologies couldthrive and develop). The benefits of the new technologies were appropriated by ruling elites, whichreinforced their privileged position. Precolonial Africa illustrates the possibility that technology spurseconomic growthbutnotdevelopment (innovations canbe transferredwithout the technological capacityembodiedinthoseinnovationbeingsimultaneouslytransferred).

Allen,PaulG.;MarkGreaves(2011):“PaulAllen:TheSingularityisn’tnear”,TechnologyReview.

Arthur,W.Brian(2007):“Thestructureofinvention”,ResearchPolicy36,274‐287.

Aunger,Robert(2010):“What'sspecialabouthumantechnology?”,CambridgeJournalofEconomics34,115‐123.

Austen,RalphA.;DanielHeadrick (1983): “Theroleof technology in theAfricanpast”,AfricanStudiesReview26(3/4),163‐184.

Brynjolfsson,Erik;AndrewMcAfee(2014):Thesecondmachineage:Work,progress,andprosperityinatimeofbrillianttechnologies,W.W.Norton,NewYork.

Kurzweil,Ray(2005):TheSingularityisnear:Whenhumanstranscendbiology,Viking,NewYork.

Kurzweil,Ray(2012):Howtocreateamind:Thesecretofhumanthoughtrevealed,Viking,NewYork.

35. JaredDiamond’s(2000)explanationofcollapse

“… people living in fragile environments, adopting solutions that were brilliantly successful andunderstandable in the short run, but that failed or else created fatal problems in the long run whenconfronted with external environmental changes or human‐caused environmental changes that people


without written histories or archaeologists could not have anticipated.”“Past societies faced frequentecological crisesof small amplitudeover small areas.Modernglobal society faces less frequentbutbiggercrisesoverlargerareas.”

36. Arenon‐ambiguousthelessonsofthepast?

The response to the environmental crises in Western Europe between the 14th and 18th centuries wasinnovationandintensification.Thisresponsewasflexible,broad,decentralizedandprotracted.Basedonthisexperience,isalarmisttheclaimthat,underthecurrentpatternofglobalresourceexploitation,thefutureofhumanity is at risk?Butzer (2012) contends that one shouldnot ignore the resilience and the capacity ofreadaptationofsocieties.Socialstresscreatestheconditionsandincentivestotrynewideasandsolutions,aboveallinsocietiesfavouringbottom‐upoptions,incontrasttotheauthoritarianstrategiescharacteristicofpre‐industrialsocieties.

AccordingtoTainter(2006),thebigquestionatpresentiswhetherintensificationcancontinueindefinitely.The view of orthodox economists is that new technologies and new resources to address all kinds ofproblemswillalwaysbefound:thefutureisalwayspromising.Thealternativeviewisthatthepresentglobalcivilizationislikeanyotherpreviouscivilization,inthesensethatnocivilizationcansurvivethedestructionof itsnaturalbase.Economiesdependonecosystems.What is the futureof aneconomyshrinking forests,erodingsoils,depletingaquifers, collapsing fisheries, raising temperature,melting icesheets…?Collapse inthepastwastypicallyprecededbythespreadofhunger(hungerattheglobalscalehasnotyetdisappeared).

37. JosephTainter’s(1988)theoryofwhysocietiescollapse

Collapsemeansthatasocietyexperiencesarapidandsignificantlossofsociopoliticalcomplexity.Tainter’sexplanation is based on four ideas. (1) Societies are problem‐solving organizations. (2) The sociopoliticalorganizationofsocietiesrequiresenergyforitsmaintenance.(3)Highercomplexitylevelsofasociopoliticalorganizationcorrespondtohigherpercapitacosts:arisingcomplexityisincreasingcostlyforeachmemberof the more complex system. (4) Solving social problems by investing in sociopolitical complexity hasdiminishing marginal returns: each complexity upgrading is less capable of solving problems. Theproductivity (the benefits) of the investment in complexity is eventually declining. Given (1)‐(4), collapsearises when the benefits of investing incomplexity are insufficient to cover its costs.Collapse is the natural mechanism todownsize a complexity level whosemaintenance isexcessivelycostly. Innovationor discovery of new resources (energysubsidies)arecommonwaystoovercomethediminishing returns to investment incomplexity.

38. Magdoff and Foster (2011, p. 7) corollary to Herman Daly’s Impossibility Theorem of unlimitedeconomicgrowthinalimitedenvironmente

“Thecontinuationforanylengthoftimeofcapitalism,asagrow‐or‐diesystemdedicatedtounlimitedcapitalaccumulation, is itself a flat impossibility”. “We are constantly being told by the vested interests (…) thatcapitalismoffersthesolutiontotheenvironmentalproblem:asifthefurthergrowthofcapitalmarkets,greenconsumption, andnew technologyprovideuswithmiraculouswaysout of our global ecological dilemma.Suchviewsarerootedinanabsolutedenialofreality.”

complexity level

benefits of

complexity innovation /

new resources


39. X‐events

Modernsocietiesrelyonacontinuedimprovementoftechnology.Thismakeseconomiesincreasingcomplexand all its components more interdependent. As a result, economies aremore vulnerable to shocks. Theinfrastructures required tomaintain the stability and complexity ofmodern economies (electrical power,water and food supply, communication, transportation, health care, defense, finance) are increasinglyintertwined,sothattroublesinonecomponentmoreeasilymayspreadtoothercomponents.

X‐events arehigh‐surprise, high‐impact events. In a society, the sourceofX‐events is the ‘complexity gap’between the complexity of the control system (the government) and the increasing complexity of thecontrolled systems (the citizens). The gap must be bridged: either the government forces a reduction incomplexity in the population (repression) or raises its own complexity to match the population’s highercomplexity (free elections are held, civil rights and liberties granted, social mobility allowed, opennessaccepted). An X‐event is the default path of bridging the complexity gap, the vehicle that narrows thedifferentcomplexity levelsof two interactingsystems.Whenagovernment isnotable tobridgethegap,arevolution(anexampleofanX‐event)islikelytobreakout.ExamplesofXevents:supervolcanoexplosions(Toba, 74kya, probably responsible for the near extinction of humanity), the 1918 Spanish influenzaepidemic,highmagnitudeearthquakes,beesmassivelydyingoff,9‐11terroristattack…SocietiestodayaremorevulnerablethanevertoX‐events:thecomplexstructuresofmodernsocietiesareextremelyfragile.

Lawofrequisitecomplexity:toregulateasystem,thecomplexityofthecontrollerhastobeatleastasgreatasthecomplexityofthesystemtobecontrolled.

The2011revoltsintheArabworldareexamplesofX‐events.Moderncommunicationandsocial‐networkingservices (Google, Twitter, Facebook) have increased social complexity (citizens becomemore empowered,self‐aware, informed, connected). Governments responding by restricting access to those services, orshutting them down, made the complexity gap widen to unsustainable levels. A complexity gap issynonymouswithtroubleandthepoliticalexpressionoftroubleisrevolt/revolution.TheresultintheArabworldwasregimechangeinsomecountries(Tunisia,Libya,Egypt)andchallengetorulingelites(theAssaddynastyinSyria,themonarchyinBahrain).

Manufacturing sectors in developed economies have becomemore complex (minimum‐wage laws, healthand safety standards, unionization) than those from developing economies. When both sectors interactthroughglobalization,withacomplexitygapbecomingtoolargetobesustainable,thegapisclosedbyanX‐event:outsourcing (manufacturing jobs transferred fromdeveloped todevelopingcountries).ThisX‐eventdownsizes by force the comparatively excessive complexity of themost developed sector. In this respect,globalizationcreatesnewX‐eventsandmagnifiestheconsequencesofexistingX‐events.

Therules fordealingwithnormalevents (forwhich there isabundantpastexperience)aredifferent fromthoseforhandlingX‐events(whicharerareandunexpected).

TheincreasingcomplexityoftheglobalsocietyisthedirectcauseofX‐events.Thecomplexityisexpressedinmany ways: integration, interdependence of systems and infrastructures; accumulation of bureaucraticlayers; mismatch in complexity levels between interacting systems (national and foreign economies;governmentsandcitizens;economiesandecosystems)…

40. Complexityprinciples

Emergence: the whole is not just the sum of its parts. Even if the characteristics of the individualcomponentsof a systemareperfectlyknown, its interactionmaygive rise to systemicproperties that aredifficulttopredictfromtheindividualproperties.

RedQueenhypothesis:onemustruntostayinthesameplace(dothesameisarecipeforfailure).Asystemconsistingofadaptive,evolvingorganismsforcestheplayerstoadaptandevolvefastandcontinuouslyjusttoremaininthegame.Thispermanentracebetweentheplayerstendstoincreasetheoverallcomplexityofthesystem.


Nofreelunch.Toincreasetheefficiencywithwhichasystemoperates,itsresilience(toshocksorchanges)mustbereduced.Conversely,survivalinanuncertainenvironmentdemandsefficiencysacrifices.

The Goldilocks principle (food cannot be too hot not too hold). In an open, dynamic and competitiveenvironment, systems can operate only within a limited range of conditions: the ‘edge of chaos’.Policymakers, for instance,must select the rightmix ofmarket freedomandmarket regulation: toomuchregulationmayharmgrowth;toomuchlaissez‐faire,maybedestabilizing.

Undecidability:deductive reasoning (logic alone, rational argumentation) isnotalwaysenough tohandleproblems.

The Butterfly effect (ripple, domino, snow‐ball effect). Complex systems tend to be very sensitive toapparentlyminor changes: small changesmay have large effects. (7) Lawof requisite variety: the controlsystemhas to be at least as complex (sophisticated) as the system to be controlled (higher complexity isrequiredtomanagelowercomplexity).Complexitygapsdonottendtolastanditsinvoluntaryadjustementislikelytobetraumaticforthesystem.

41. Systemsself‐organizedcritically

Thepropertyofself‐organizedcriticalitymeansthat individualbehaviourtendstocauseasystembothtoself‐organizeandconvergetocritical/tippingpointswheresmalleventsmayhavebigglobaleffects.Anexample: sand fallingon a fixedpoint in a table.The sand accumulates formingapileuntilastateofreposeisreached(atacertainangleofthepile).Afterthatstate,furthergrainscreateavalanches(apotentiallycatastrophicglobalevent)andpartofthesandfallsoffofthetable.

42. Punctuatedequilibrium(StephenGould,NilsEldredge)

‘Punctuated equilibrium’ refers to a theory of evolutionary processes according to which evolutionaryprocessesdonotoccurslowlyandgradually,butquicklyandsuddently.Longperiodsofapparentstabilityandlackofsignificantchangearesuddentlyfollowedbyaperiodofradical,dramaticevolutionarychangestake place (like the Cambrian explosion, 650 mya, where animals with shells and external skeletonsappeared).

Barbier, Edward B. (2011): Scarcity and frontiers: How economies have developed throughnaturalresourceexploitation,CambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork.

Butzer,KarlW.(2012):“Collapse,environment,andsociety”,PNAS109(10),3632‐3639.Casti,JohnL.(2013):X‐events:Thecollapseofeverything,WilliamMorrow,London.Clark, Gregory (2008): “In defense of theMalthusian interpretation of history”, European Review ofEconomicHistory12,175‐199.

Diamond, Jared (2000):Ecological collapsesofpre‐industrial societies,TheTannerLecturesonHumanValues.

EhrlichP.R.,A.EhrlichA.(2013):“Canacollapseofglobalcivilizationbeavoided?”,ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyB280,20122845.

Ferguson,Niall(2010):“Complexityandcollapse:Empiresontheedgeofchaos”,ForeignAffairs89(2),18‐32.

Galam,Serge (2012):Sociophysics:Aphysicist'smodelingofpsycho‐politicalphenomena,Springer,NewYork.

Magdoff,Fred;JohnBellamyFoster(2011):Whateveryenvironmentalistneedstoknowaboutcapitalism:Acitizen'sguidetocapitalismandtheenvironment,MonthlyReviewPress,NewYork.

Oreskes, Naomi; ErikM. Conway (2014): The collapse ofwestern civilization: A view from the future,ColumbiaUniversityPress,NewYork.

Streeck,Wolfgang(2016):Howwillcapitalismend:Essaysonafailingsystem,Verso,London.Tainter,Joseph(2006):“Archaeologyofovershootandcollapse”,AnnualReviewofAnthropology35,59‐74.Tainter,Joseph(1988):Thecollapseofcomplexsocieties,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UK.


43. Isglobalizedfinancedestroyingtheeconomy?

Technological advances reduce theneed for labour inproduction. Insteadof creatinga leisureeconomy itappears that those advances are forcing employees towork overtime to repay debts incurred because ofinsufficientwages.Thereisaglobaldebtoverheadthatincreasesfasterthanthevalueofglobalproduction(theeconomy’sabilitytopay).Economies(nationalandglobal)areendangeredbytheprivilegegrantedtothe financial sector to generate debts without regard to the wealth creation process that ensures debtrepayment. It is very difficult for physical wealth to expand exponentially but financial wealth can growexponentiallywithcertainease(moneyisjustnumbersonacomputerscreen,mereaccountingentries:canbecreatedinhugeamountsimmediately).Thefinancialsectorisautonomousandplaysaccordingtoitsownrules:thecasinorules.

44. Twokindsofprogress

Traditionalideaofprogress:from1945to1980,thedominantideawasgrowthinlivingstandards(childreninheritabetterworldthantheirfathers).Theneoliberal(pro‐financial)idea:since1980,thefinancialsector(banks, financial investors) want the economic surplus (growth in wages and corporate profits) forthemselves,sothebenefitsofanexpandingeconomyareconcentratedonasmallpercentageofpopulation(whichdoesnotleavemuchroomfortheriseinlivingstandards).

Hudson,Michael (2012):Finance capitalism and itsdiscontents: Interviews and speeches2003–2012,ISLET,Dresden.

45. Pastandfuture

“Thosewhosufferfromhistoricalamnesia,thebeliefthatweareuniqueinhistoryandhavenothingtolearnfromthepast, remainchildren.They live inan illusion.”ChrisHedges,2010,Empireof illusion:Theendofliteracyandthetriumphofspectacle.

“To me and many others, the most fundamental question concerning our human future is whether theinhabitants of planet Earth will be able to cooperate in achieving the goal of reaching a more or lesssustainable future in reasonable harmony, or whether the current large division betweenmore and lesswealthypeople,aswellastheunequaldistributionofpowerwithinandamongsocieties,willplayhavocwithsuchintentions.”Spier(2010,p.203)

Spier,Fred(2010):Bighistoryandthefutureofhumanity,Wiley‐Blackwell,Chichester,UK.

Cook, Earl (1971): “Theflow of energy in anindustrial society”,Scientific American225(3),134‐147.

46. TheTowlerprinciple

“Itisnotpossibletoextractenergyfromtheenvironmentwithouthavinganimpactontheenvironment.”(Towler,p.2)

Towler,BrianF.(2014):Thefutureofenergy,AcademicPress,London.


Primarysourcesofenergyintheworld,1800‐2010(Towler,p.7)

47. The paradox ofprosperity (Todd G.Buchholz,2016)

Buchholz suggests thefollowing ‘paradox ofprosperity’: “It is a commonand dangerous mistake tothink that societies are lessvulnerable when they arerelativelyprosperous(…)evenrelatively prosperous societieshave a tendency to comeapart.” Heidentifies five“potent forces that can shatter

evenarichnation:(1)fallingbirthrates,(2)globalizedtrade,(3)risingdebtloads,(4)erodingworkethics,and(5)thechallengeofpatriotisminamulticulturalcountry.”Asregards(1):

“Ascountriesgrowrich,theirbirthratesfallandtheaverageageofthepopulationclimbs.Inordertokeepupaloftystandardofliving,citizensneedworkerstoservethem,whetherasneurosurgeonsinhospitals,waitersinrestaurants,ormanicuristsinnailsalons.Thisrequiresaninfluxofnewworkers,whichmeansopeningupthegates to more immigrants. Unless a country has strong cultural and civic institutions, new immigrants cansplinter the dominant culture. Thus countries face either (1) declining relativewealth or (2) fraying culturalfabric. Prosperous nations cannot enjoy their prosperity without becomingmulticultural. But if they becomemulticultural,theystruggletopursueunified,nationalgoals.”

Buchholzderivesthefollowinggeneralrulefromhisresearch:thefertilityratefallsto2.5childrenperwomenwhenGDPgrowsabove2.5percentfortwogenerations(some50years).Athirdgenerationofgrowthandtheratefallsbelow2.1.

Buchholz,ToddG.(2016):Thepriceofprosperity:Whyrichnationsfailandhowtorenewthem,Harper,NewYork.48. DrBob’sThirdLaw(inhonourofRobertHargroveMontgomerybyJohnF.Weeks)

“Youdon’tneedaneconomisttounderstandthebasicworkingsoftheeconomy.”(Weeks,2014,p.xi)Presumably,thefirstlawis“Peoplecanrulethemselveswithoutkingsandqueens”andthesecondoneis“PeopledonotneedapriesttoreadtheBible.”

JohnF.Weeks(2014):Economicsofthe1%.Howmainstreameconomicsservestherich,obscuresrealityanddistortspolicy,AnthemPress,LondonandNewYork.49. StephenHawking(2018)onthesurvivalofhumanity

“IregarditasalmostinevitablethateitheranuclearconfrontationorenvironmentalcatastrophewillcrippletheEarthatsomepointinthenext1,000yearswhich,asgeologicaltimegoes,isthemereblinkofaneye.BythenIhopeandbelievethatouringeniousracewillhavefoundawaytoslipthesurlybondsofEarthandwillthereforesurvivethedisaster.

(…)IthinkweareactingwithrecklessindifferencetoourfutureonplanetEarth(…)ToleaveEarthdemandsaconcertedglobalapproach—everyoneshouldjoinin(…)Thetechnologyisalmostwithinourgrasp.Itistimeto


exploreothersolarsystems.Spreadingoutmaybetheonlythingthatsavesusfromourselves.IamconvincedthathumansneedtoleaveEarth.Ifwestay,weriskbeingannihilated.”(ch.7)

“Whenwe invented fire, wemessed up repeatedly, then invented the fire extinguisher.Withmore powerfultechnologiessuchasnuclearweapons,syntheticbiologyandstrongartificialintelligence,weshouldinsteadplanaheadandaimtogetthingsrightthefirsttime,becauseitmaybetheonlychancewewillget.Ourfutureisaracebetween the growing power of our technology and the wisdom with which we use it. Let’s make sure thatwisdomwins.”(ch.9)

“Theseconddevelopmentwhichwillimpactonthefutureofhumanityistheriseofartificialintelligence(…)Buttheadventofsuper‐intelligentAIwouldbeeitherthebestor theworstthingevertohappentohumanity.WecannotknowifwewillbeinfinitelyhelpedbyAI,orignoredbyitandsidelined,orconceivablydestroyedbyit.Asanoptimist,IbelievethatwecancreateAIforthegoodoftheworld,thatitcanworkinharmonywithus.Wesimplyneedtobeawareofthedangers,identifythem,employthebestpossiblepracticeandmanagementandprepareforitsconsequenceswellinadvance.”(ch.10)

“Iamadvocatingthatallyoungpeopleshouldbefamiliarwithandconfidentaroundscientificsubjects,whatevertheychoose todo.Theyneedtobescientifically literate,and inspiredtoengagewithdevelopments inscienceand technology in order to learnmore. A world where only a tiny super‐elite are capable of understandingadvanced science and technology and its applications would be, to mymind, a dangerous and limited one. Iseriouslydoubtwhetherlong‐rangebeneficialprojectssuchascleaninguptheoceansorcuringdiseasesinthedevelopingworldwouldbegivenpriority.Worse,wecouldfindthattechnologyisusedagainstusandthatwemighthavenopowertostopit.”(ch.10)

Hawking,Stephen(2018):Briefanswerstothebigquestions,BantamBooks,NewYork.

50. Thegreatestrisktohumanityincomingdecades(Diamond,2000)

“The greatest risk to humanity in coming decades is the risk that we may continue to damage ourenvironment to adegree incompatiblewithour current standardof living, or even incompatiblewithourexistence.”

Diamond, Jared (2000):Ecological collapsesofpre‐industrial societies,TheTannerLecturesonHumanValues.

51. Paradoxicalbigthreatstothe21stcenturyworldeconomy

Threat1:thethreatofscarcity.ThisthreatisassociatedwithapossibleecologicalcatastropheandhowthiswillaffectthefutureoflifeonEarth.

Threat2: thethreatofabundance.Thisthreat iscreatedbyautomationandisdefined intermsofhowautomationwillaffectthefutureofwork.

52. Atechnologicalparadox

“Inalaissezfairecapitalisteconomy,thechoiceboilsdowntotwoperspectives:1)ifoneintroducespoliciestosafeguard thestandardof livingofworkersbyestablishing that theminimumwagecannot fallbelowacertain threshold (moderate left policy), the system produces ‘technological unemployment;’ 2) if it isestablishedthatthegovernmentmustnotinterfereinnegotiationsbetweencapitalistsandworkers,lettingthemarketdecidewagelevels(moderaterightpolicy),thesystemproduces‘technologicalimpoverishment.’Allthishappenswhenanimpressivetechnologicaldevelopmentmaypotentiallyimprovethelifeconditionofeverybody.Thus,contemporarysocietyseemstobeinherentlycharacterizedbya‘technologicalparadox.’”

Campa, Riccardo (2018): Still think robots can’t do your job: Essays on automation and technologicalunemployment,DEditore,Rome.


53. Threegeneralizationsofhistoricaldynamics(PeterTurchinandSergeyA.Nefedov,2009)

Overpopulation. “One generalization can be called the neo‐Malthusian principle: during periods ofsustained population growth, if the output of the agrarian economy does not keep pace with thepopulation, a number of relative price trends will be observed. One trend is rising prices for basicfoodstuffs, energy, and land. Another one is falling real wages for labor. These trends are simply aconsequenceofthelawofsupplyanddemand.Thus,asthesupplyoflaborincreases,andifthedemandforitislimited(whichitisinagrarianeconomies),thepriceoflaborinevitablydecreases.”

Eliteoverproduction.“Anothergeneralization,dealingwiththeelitedynamics,isalsoaconsequenceofthe law of supply and demand. The principal kind of wealth in agrarian societies is land. The elitelandowners profit from overpopulation in two ways. First, they are consumers of labor: they needpeasants to work their land, servants to carry out domestic chores, and craftsmen and artisans forproducing items for status consumption. Second, their property, land, produces food and othercommodities,suchasfuelandrawmaterials,thedemandforwhichincreasestogetherwiththegrowingpopulation.Becausethe itemstheyconsumebecomecheaperwhilethe itemstheyproduce increase invalue,theelitesgreatlyprofitfromoverpopulation(…)Intheend,elitenumbersandappetitesoutgrowtheir “carrying capacity” (based on the labor of commoners). Just as overpopulation results in largesegmentsofcommonerpopulationbecomingimmiserated,eliteoverproductionsimilarlyresultsinlargesegments of elites becoming impoverished (not in absolute terms, as with common populace, butrelativelytothestandardsofconsumptionneededtomaintaintheelitestatus).Thisgeneralizationthusmaybecalledtheprincipleofeliteoverproduction.”

Turchin,Peter;SergeyA.Nefedov(2009):Secularcycles,PrincetonUniversityPress,Princeton,NJ.54. Thehumangamble

Manyfeaturesofmodernsocieties(emergenceofagriculture,literacy,marketinstitutions,thegovernment,legalsystem)canbeviewedasadaptationstoanincreaseinpopulation.Apopulationincreasereducespercapitawealthandchangeswealthdistribution.Thisinducesthoseatthelowerscaleofwealthdistributiontotakemorerisks(betonnovel,revolutionary,innovativeideas;engageinillegalacts;becomemorecreative;gamblemore).Themoreenviousindividualsaremorepronetogamblemoreasawaytotrytoimprovetheirrelative position. Those succeeding in the bet for novel ideas create a positive externality on the rest:innovationseventuallyspread.

Brenner,Reuven(1983):History:Thehumangamble,TheUniversityofChicagoPress,Chicago.

55. Theimperialmodeofliving

“By [imperial mode of living] we aim to understand both the persistence and, at the same time, crisis‐deepening patterns of production and consumption that are based on an –in principle– unlimitedappropriationof theresourcesand labourcapacityofboth theglobalNorthand theglobalSouthandofadisproportionateclaimtoglobalsinks(likeforestsandoceansinthecaseofCO2).”

“Weargue that the increaseofproductivity andmaterialprosperity in the capitalist centresdependsonaworld resource systemand international division of labour that favours the globalNorth and is renderedinvisible through the imperial mode of living, so that the domination and power relations it implies arenormalized.Sincethebeginningofindustrialcapitalism,theimperialmodeoflivinggainedcertainstabilityandhegemonyatthecostofenvironmentaldestructionandtheexploitationof labour.Societalrelationsaswell as societalnature relationswere stabilized (…)due to its environmentally and sociallyunsustainablecharacter.

(…)Duetotheimperialmodeoflivinganditsglobalspread,societiesseemtobeapproachingthelimitstocapitalistnature.Thisdoesnotnecessarilymeanthattheimperialmodeoflivingisleadingintoagreatcrash.Thelimitsarenotabsolute(…)Theauthoritarianstabilizationoftheimperialmodeoflivingisnottheonlystrategytocopewiththemultiplecrisesandtoshift the limitstocapitalistnature inanexclusivemanner.


Anotherone(…)istheselectiveecologicalmodernizationoftheimperialmodeoflivingwhichmayresultinwhatcanbecalledagreencapitalism.”

Brand,Ulrich ;MarkusWissen (2018): The limits to capitalist nature: Theorizing and overcoming theimperialmodeofliving,Rowman&Littlefield,London.56. Thelongdescent(JohnMichaelGreer,2008)

“This is theprocess I’venamed theLongDescent— thedecliningarcof industrial civilization’s trajectorythroughtime.Likethevanishedcivilizationsofthepast,ourswilllikelyfaceagradualdecline,punctuatedbysuddencrisesandperiodsofpartialrecovery.Thefallofacivilizationisliketumblingdownaslope,notlikefallingoffacliff.It’snotasinglemassivecatastrophe,orevenaseriesoflesserdisasters,butagradualslidedownstatisticalcurvesthatwilleasemodernindustrialcivilizationintohistory’sdumpster.”

“At this point it’s almost certainly too late tomanage a transition to sustainability on a global or nationalscale,evenifthepoliticalwilltoattemptitexisted—whichitclearlydoesnot.It’snottoolate,though,forindividuals, groups, and communities to make that transition themselves, and to do what they can topreserve essential cultural and practical knowledge for the future. The chance that today’s political andbusiness interests will do anything useful in our present situation is small enough that it’s probably notworthconsidering.Ourcivilizationis intheearlystagesofthesamecurveofdeclineandfall thatsomanyothershavefollowedbeforeit,andthecrisesofthepresent—peakoil,globalwarmingandthelike—arethecurrentversionsofthehistoricalpatternsofecologicaldysfunction.Tojudgebypriorexamples,wecan’tcount on the future to bring us a better and brighterworld— or even a continuation of the status quo.Instead, what most likely lies in wait for us is a long, uneven decline into a new Dark Age from which,centuriesfromnow,thecivilizationsofthefuturewillgraduallyemerge.”

57. Cataboliccollapse(JohnMichaelGreer,2008)

“Theword “catabolism” comes from the Greek, byway of the life sciences. In today’s biology it refers toprocessesbywhichalivingthingfeedsonitself.Oneofthemoststrikingfeaturesofthedeadcivilizationsofthepastisthattheygothroughpreciselythisprocessastheymovethroughthestagesofdeclineandfall.”

“…civilizationsarecomplex,expensive,fragilethings.Tokeeponegoing,youhavetomaintainandreplaceawholeseriesofcapitalstocks:physical(suchasbuildings);human(suchastrainedworkers);informational(suchasagriculturalknowledge);social (suchasmarketsystems);andmore. Ifyoucandothiswithin the‘monthly budget’ of resources provided by the natural world and the efforts of your labor force, yourcivilizationcanlastaverylongtime.Overtime,though,civilizationstendtobuildtheircapitalstocksuptolevels that can’t be maintained; each king (or industrial magnate) wants to build a bigger palace (orskyscraper)thantheonebeforehim,andsoon.Thatputsacivilizationintothesamebindasthehomeownerwiththeoversizedhouse.”

“In a growing or stable society, the resource base is abundantenoughthatproductioncanstayaheadofthemaintenancecostsofsociety’s capital – that is, the physical structures, trained people,information,andorganizationalsystemsthatconstitutethesociety.Capital used up in production or turned intowaste can easily bereplaced.”

“In a society in catabolic collapse, resources have become sodepleted thatnotenough isavailable forproduction tomeet themaintenance costs of capital. As production falters, more andmore of society’s capital becomes waste, or is turned into rawmaterial forproduction via salvage. If resourcedepletion canbestopped, the lossof capitalbringsmaintenance costsbackdown


belowwhatproductioncanmeet,andthecatabolicprocessends;ifresourcedepletioncontinues,thecatabolicprocesscontinuesuntilallcapitalbecomeswaste.”

Greer,JohnMichael(2008):Thelongdescent:Auser'sguidetotheendoftheindustrialage,NewSocietyPublishers,GabriolaIsland,Canada.

58. Dominantparadigms(worldviews,tacitsetofbeliefs,defaultinterpretations)intheWest

‘Markets’ are good: economies based on a system of markets produce efficient outcomes and areendowedwithaself‐correctingability.

Democracy is good:political systemsbasedon a systemof representativedemocracyproduce effcientpoliticaloutcomesandareendowedwithaself‐correctingability.

Capitalistgrowthisgood:societiesorganizedonthebasisofacapitalistsystemthatexploitsfossilfuelsandnaturalresourcesreachunlimitedgrowth.

Globalization is good: a global economy favouring free tradeandglobal integrationdelivers a growingwelfare.

Randers,Jorgen(2012):2052:Aglobalforecastforthenextfortyyears,ChelseaGreenPublishing,WhiteRiverJunction,VT.

59. JorgenRanders’(2012)‘grocline’

“Inthelastthirdofthetwenty‐firstcenturyIbelievetheworldeconomywillhaveenteredintoanerawherethecombinationofindividualgrowthandsocietaldeclinehasbecomethenorm.Percapitaconsumptionwillbegrowingyearbyyear,justasinthegoodolddays.Andatthesametimethetotaleconomy—theGDP—willbeinconstantdecline.Thiscouldbecalled‘grocline’—simultaneousgrowthanddecline.Thegroclineworldis onewhere the individual situation improveswhile the total pie shrinks. It’s good and bad at the sametime—decadeafterdecade.”

60. Twosocialdynamicforcesandthesustainablefuture

“Two interacting forces influence all populations: theMalthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resourcelimitsarereached,andtheDarwiniandynamicofinnovationandadaptationtocircumventtheselimitsthroughbiologicaland/orculturalevolution.TheMalthusiandynamicpushesapopulation to increase until it reaches its environmentallimits.TheDarwiniandynamicpushesagainsttheselimitsbyincorporating new traits and technologies that enhancesurvival and reproduction. There are restrictions to thisMalthusian‐Darwinian Dynamic (MDD) (…): it is logically,physically, and biologically impossible for exponentialgrowthtocontinueindefinitelywithinafiniteworld.”

“A central feature of human ecology has been the positive feedback between growth and innovation. Aspopulations grew and aggregated into larger and more complex social groups, more information wasacquiredandprocessed.Thisledtonewtechnologiesthatfurtherpushedbackecologicallimits,allowingforcontinuedpopulationgrowth.Theresulthasbeenanascendingspiralofexponentialprocessesfeedingbackoneachother:populationgrowthandaggregationbegottechnologicalinnovation,whichinturnallowedformore resource extraction and a greater ability to overcome ecological constraints, begetting still morepopulationgrowthandsocioeconomicdevelopment.”


“TheruinsofMohenjoDaro,Mesopotamia,Egypt,Greece,Rome,theMaya,Hohokam,AngkorWat,andEasterIslandareenduringevidencethatmanyearliersocietieswereunabletoinnovatetheirwayoutoflocallimitsand therefore collapsed despite attaining dense populations and advanced cultures (…) Until now, bothMalthusians and Cornucopians have been correct: some populations have crashed and cultures havevanished, but our species has endured because these events have been localized. However, behavioralchangesandtechnologicalinnovationsoverthelastcenturynowintricatelyinterconnectusinasingleglobalsociety.Asaresult,localperturbationscurrentlyhavetheabilitytoreverberateacrossallofhumanity.”

“Withinthecontextofournowhighlyglobalizedsociety,theessentialquestionishowmuchpotentialexistsfortheDarwiniansideoftheMDDtoallowforcontinuedadaptationandinnovationtopushbackagainstglobalscaleconstraints(…)ThebadnewsisthattheMDDhaslefthumansillpreparedtomakethenecessaryecologicalandbehavioralchangesrequiredtoavoidcivilizationcollapse(…)Thegood news is that the MDDmay also providevaluable insights into potential solutions frombothnatural (in particular evolutionary biology and ecology) and social (in particular economics andsociology)scienceperspectives.”

“Wemustrecognizethatasustainablefuturewillultimatelyrequire:(i)negativepopulationgrowthfor a number of generations, followed by zero growth; (ii) a steady‐state economy based onsustainableuseofrenewableenergyandmaterialresources;and(iii)newsocialnormsthatfavorthewelfareoftheentireglobalpopulationoverthatofspecificindividualsandgroups.Itisalsoessentialthat werecognizethat humanityhasnot yet evolvedthegeneticorcultural adaptationsneededtoaccomplishthesetasks.”

JeffreyC.Nekolaetal. (2013): “TheMalthusian‐Darwinian dynamicand the trajectoryofcivilization”,TrendsinEcologyandEvolution1643.

61. Somefactsontechnology(TrevorKletz,1996)

“Everyerrorisahumanerrorbecause:Someonehastodecidewhattodo.Someonehastodecidehowtodoit.Someonehastodoit.”

“Wecannothave thebenefitsofmodern technologywithout somedisadvantages in termsofpollutionandsafety.”

“Newtechnologiesareusuallylesshazardousthanoldones.”

“Thecostofreducingpollutionandincreasingsafetyhastobepaidforintheendbythepublic.”

“People,nottechnology,createhazardsandpollution.”“Toblamepollutionontechnologyistheultimatedodgeofasocietyunwillingtotaketheblameforitsownerrorsandstupidity.It isnotcomputersandautomationthatcauseunemploymentbutthewayweusethem.”

“MYTHM5.Thebestwayofconveyinginformationtopeopleistotellthem.”

“Ifwehavetoconveymessagesthatpeoplewanttoreceive(‘wheretogetfreebeer,’forexample),almostallmethodsofcommunicationareeffective.However,ifthereissomeresistancetothemessage,asthereofteniswhenwearemakingrecommendationsto increasesafety, forexample, thenweshouldchoosethemosteffective method of communication: discussion (…) Discussions take longer than a lecture, but more isrememberedandpeoplearemorecommittedtotheconclusionsbecausetheyhavenotbeentoldwhattodobuthaveworkeditoutforthemselves(…)Thebestsizeforadiscussiongroupis12‐20.Iffewerthan12arepresent,thegroupmaynotbe‘critical’(intheatomicenergysense)anddiscussionmaynottakeoff.Ifmorethan20arepresent,thequietermembersmaynotbeabletocontribute.”

“MYTHM10.Weneedtoknowwhatisnew.”

“Wedoneedtoknowwhatisnew,butthatshouldnotnegateourconcernwithwhatisold.Inmyownareaofexpertise,namely,losspreventionandprocesssafety,themajorityofaccidentshavewell‐knowncauses(…)Spendlesstimereadingmagazinesthattellwhatisnewandmoretimereadingbooksthattellwhatisold.


Today, ‘old’impliesoutdated;inthepast,itimpliedsomethingofenduringvalue;ithadtobegoodtohavelastedsolong.”

Kletz,Trevor(1996):Dispellingchemicalindustrymyths,3rdedition,CRCPress,BocaRaton,FL.

62. Viewsonthefutureofartificialintelligence

Turner(2019,p.16)definesartificialintelligenceas“theabilityofanon‐naturalentitytomakechoicesbyanevaluativeprocess.”

“The optimists emphasise the benefts of AI and downplay any dangers (…) Fundamentally, optimiststhinkhumanitycanandwillovercomeanychallengesAIposes.”

“The pessimists include Nick Bostrom,whose ‘paperclipmachine’ thought experiment imagines an AIsystemasked tomakepaperclipswhichdecides to seizeandconsumeall resources inexistence, in itsblindaderencetothatgoal(…)Likewise,ElonMuskhassaidwerisk‘summoningademon’andcalledAI“ourbiggestexistentialthreat’.”

“Thepragmatistsacknowledgethebeneftspredictedbytheoptimistsaswellas thepotentialdisastersforecastbythepessimists.Pragmatistsargueforcautionandcontrol.”

Turner, Jacob (2019): Robot rules: Regulating artificial intelligence, Palgrave Macmillan, Cham,Switzerland.

63. Sixsupertrendsshapingthefuture(EdwardCornish,2004)

Technological progress. “We can think oftechnological progress as the growing capability ofhumans to achieve their purposes. Technologicalprogresshasbeenthesupremelyimportanttrendinhumanevolutionformillionsofyears.”

Economic growth. “Technological progresspromotes economic growth (…)becausepeople areeager touse theirknow‐how toproducegoodsandservices,bothfortheirownuseandtoselltoothers.Economicgrowthisalsoaself‐sustainingprocess.”

Improving health. “Technological progress andeconomic growth have led to improving humanhealthbecausetheyhaveproducedmorefood,moreeffectivesanitation,betterhealthservices,andsoon.Improving health leads to increasing longevity,which has two very important consequences:population growth and a rise in the average age ofthepopulation.”

Increasing mobility. “People, goods, andinformationmove fromplace toplace faster and ingreater quantity than ever before (…)Mobility canalsocausesocialandculturaldisruption.”

Environmentaldecline. “Environemtaldecline iscontinuing for the world as a whole because ofcontinuinghighpopulationgrowthandeconomicdevelopment.”


Increasing deculturation (loss of traditionalculture). “Deculturation occurs when people losetheir culture or cannot use it because of changedcircumstances (…)Today, theworld is estimated tohave6,000languages,butthenumberisexpectedtodwindletoabout3,000bytheendofthetwenty‐firstcentury due to high mobility, globalization ofeconomic activities, and other factors. Urbanizationalsocontributestodeculturation.”

Cornish, Edward (2004): Futuring: Theexploration of the future,World Future Society,Bethesda,Maryland.

64. Postcapitalism:networkvshierarchy

“Neoliberalism is the doctrine of uncontrolledmarkets:itsaysthatthebestroutetoprosperityis individuals pursuing their own self‐interest,and themarket is the onlyway to express thatself‐interest. It says the state should be small(exceptforitsriotsquadandsecretpolice);thatfinancialspeculationisgood;thatinequalityisgood;thatthenaturalstateofhumankindistobeabunchofruthlessindividuals,competingwitheachother.”

“Capitalismismorethanjustaneconomicstructureorasetoflawsandinstitutions.Itisthewholesystem–social,economic,demographic,cultural, ideological–neededtomakeadevelopedsocietyfunctionthroughmarketsandprivateownership.That includescompanies,marketsandstates.But italso includescriminalgangs,secretpowernetworks,miraclepreachersinaLagosslum,rogueanalystsonWallStreet.”

“That,inshort,istheargumentofthisbook:thatcapitalismisacomplex,adaptivesystemwhichhasreachedthelimitsofitscapacitytoadapt(…)Capitalism(…)willnotbeabolishedbyforced‐marchtechniques.Itwillbeabolishedbycreatingsomethingmoredynamicthatexists,atfirst,almostunseenwithintheoldsystem,butwhichbreaksthrough,reshapingtheeconomyaroundnewvalues,behavioursandnorms.”

“Postcapitalism is possible because of three impacts of the new technology in the past twenty‐five years.First,informationtechnologyhasreducedtheneedforwork,blurredtheedgesbetweenworkandfreetimeand loosened the relationship between work and wages. Second, information goods are corroding themarket’sabilitytoformpricescorrectly.Thatisbecausemarketsarebasedonscarcitywhileinformationisabundant.Thesystem’sdefencemechanismistoformmonopoliesonascalenotseeninthepast200years–yet thesecannot last.Third,we’reseeingthespontaneousriseofcollaborativeproduction:goods,servicesandorganizations are appearing that no longer respond to the dictates of themarket and themanagerialhierarchy.Thebiggestinformationproductintheworld–Wikipedia–ismadeby27,000volunteers,forfree,abolishing the encyclopaedia business and depriving the advertising industry of an estimated $3 billion ayearinrevenue(…)Parallelcurrencies,timebanks,cooperativesandself‐managedspaceshaveproliferated,barelynoticedby theeconomicsprofession,andoftenasadirect resultof theshatteringofoldstructuresafterthe2008crisis.Newformsofownership,newformsoflending,newlegalcontracts:awholebusinesssubculture has emerged over the past ten years, which the media has dubbed the ‘sharing economy’.Buzztermssuchas the ‘commons’and ‘peer‐production’ are thrownaround,but fewhavebothered toaskwhatthismeansforcapitalismitself.Ibelieveitoffersanescaperoute–butonlyifthesemicro‐levelprojectsarenurtured,promotedandprotectedbyamassivechange inwhatgovernmentsdo.Thismust in turnbedrivenbyachangeinourthinkingabouttechnology,ownershipandworkitself.”

“Collaborative production, using network technology to produce goods and services thatwork onlywhenthey are free, or shared, defines the route beyond themarket system. Itwill need the state to create theframework, and the postcapitalist sector might coexist with the market sector for decades. But it is


happening (…) The main contradiction today is between the possibility of free, abundant goods andinformationandasystemofmonopolies,banksandgovernments tryingtokeepthingsprivate, scarceandcommercial. Everything comesdown to the strugglebetween thenetworkand thehierarchy,betweenoldformsofsocietymouldedaroundcapitalismandnewformsofsocietythatprefigurewhatcomesnext.”

Mason,Paul(2015):Postcapitalism:Aguidetoourfuture,AllenLane.

65. Suggestionsforapost‐labourworld(PeterFleming,2015)

“Wework,paytaxes,takecareofthebillsandcommutingcostsforonesinglereason:notto‘survive’butsothatthegoverningelitegainsitsprivilegesfornothing.Ourlabourisdesignedtoprovidefreedomtotherich.Ourworkexists inordertosubsidizethecostsof theirexistence(…)Themoretheneoliberalelitedesirescompleteexemptionfromthesocialsystemsweareforcedtoparticipatein,themorewehavetowork.Andbecauseneoliberalcapitalismentailssuchextremeinequalitiesofwealthdistribution,workmustbecomeaninexorablewayoflifeformostofus,ratherthansomethingwedoamongotherthings.”

“Asurpluslivingwage.Everybodyinsocietyoughttobepaidatleastanaverageof£30,000irrespectiveof what they do. And no one should be paid more than £95,000 a year (roughly a 1:3 income ratiobetweenthepoorestandrichestinsociety).”

“Post‐state democratic organizations. The governmental structure as it currently stands should beabandoned and a more direct form of participatory democracy should be instituted. Parliamentarydemocracy is neither parliamentary nor democratic, but a vehicle of direct oppression to enhance theinterestsofanelitesominuteandremovedfromeverydaylifethatwehavelittleideawhomostofthemare.”

“Thetransferofallmonopolisticandoligopolisticenterprisesintopublichands,thatis,underthedirect control of their ownusers. Railways, banks, healthcare providers, suppliers ofwater, electricityand foodstuffs, for example, have completely lost sight of their respective purposes under neoliberalcapitalism.”

“Thethree‐dayworkweek.Fromahistoricalviewpoint,societiesthatinsistedpeopleworkmorethanthreedaysaweekwereusuallyslavesocieties.Themaintenanceofevena‘sophisticatedself‐subsistence’does not requiremore than 20hours ofwork aweek (…)No economic value is added after a certainthresholdispassed.Littleofinterestiscreatedoverandabovethethreedaysaweek.”

[Parkinson’sLaw: the timeused toperforma task isadapted to the timegiven toperform it.“Ifwearegiveneighthourstoperformatask,itusuallytakeseighthourstodososuccessfully.Ifweareonlygiventhreehourstodothesametask,ittypicallytakesthreehourstodososuccessfully.”]

“Demassifyingsocietyasapositiveglobalmovement.A friendrecentlysentme this: ‘About70percent of agricultural land and freshwater is used for livestock –more for grains as livestock feed. Beefproductionusesthree‐fifthsofglobalfarmland.Ityieldsunder5percentofprotein.Akilogramofbeefrequires 15,000 liters ofwater. Shouldn’twe stop eatingmeat?’ Slowingdownmeat consumption is ametaphor for awiderprocess: slowingdown themassificationofways of life thatnot onlyhave littleethical purpose but are incredible self‐destructive (…) Contemporary capitalist work patterns andcoercivestatecommunismshareasetofelectiveaffinitiesinthisregard.Andmuchofthishastodowiththepointlessandself‐referentialaspectsofwork–acceleratedactionsthatgonowhere,thatuseupmoreenergythantheygiveback,andsoforth.Capitalismdoesnotequatetoindividualfreedomofexpression;exactlytheoppositeistrue.”

“Demonetarizing incentive structures. (…)We are currently imprisoned in a theory of money thatsuggeststhatitsendlessaccumulationistheonlythingthatmakesusdoanything–gettingoutofbedinthemorning,acquiringaneducation,goingtowork(…)Butthetheoryisfalse(…)Apanoplyofresearchtellsusthatwebecomeourcreative,moral,insightful,inventiveandproductivebest(i.e.happypeople)whenmotivatedbyintrinsicrewardsratherthanfinancialones(…).Afteracertainthresholdispassed,money tends to spoil things; our desire for it (to buy things, obtain status, etc.) quickly becomes self‐


referentialandtautological(wewantmoneyforitsownsake)(…)Wetendtobeatourbestwhenwedothingsthatweareinherentlyinterestedinfortheirownworthorgearedtowardsimportantsocialgoals.”

Fleming,Peter(2015):Themythologyofwork:Howcapitalismpersistsdespiteitself,PlutoPress,London.

66. EpochsAandB(JonasSalkandJonathanSalk,2018)

“The sigmoid growth curve consists of two sections of different shape: the upturnedportiondescribesaphaseofprogressiveaccelerationofgrowth; thesecondportion isdownturnedanddescribesaphaseofprogressivedeceleration.Thedifferenceinshapebetween the two portions of the curve suggests both quantitative and qualitative

differences inhumanlifebetweenthetwoperiodsoftime.”

“Wearemovingfromaneradominatedbylimitlessgrowth,competitivestrategies,short‐rangethinking,andindependence to one characterizedbyawarenessof limits, cooperation, long‐range thinking, andinterdependence(…)Weareona frontier,but itisnotterritorialortechnological;itishumanandsocial (…) In the years to come, we face thechallenge of understanding and facilitating aslowing of human population growth and,ultimately, of adapting to conditions associatedwith a relatively constant population size at alevel far beyond anything we have previouslyexperienced.”

“Tosomeone born in Epoch A, the future would appear to have fewlimitations in terms of growth, resources, and available energy.SomeonelivinginEpochBwould,however,haveadistinctsenseoflimitations and of the necessity to adapt to the approaching of aplateauinpopulationgrowth.”

“In Epoch A, progressive increase in population was seen to bepositive; in EpochB, this increase is nowof negative value and, ifleftunchecked,threatensourveryexistence.”

“InEpochA, competition and thedemandsof persistent, acceleratinggrowth were inherently associated with either/or attitudes and

philosophies and theprevalence of win‐losestrategies in theresolution of conflict.People or nations sawthe world as a place inwhichanybenefittotheother is a loss ordetriment to the self. InEpoch B, however, the tendency toward balance, collaboration,and interdependencewillbebaseduponandevokeaphilosophy

ofboth/andandthedevelopmentofwin‐winstrategies.”

“EpochBvalues,attitudes,andbehaviorsareemergingnotonlybecausetheyarehumanebutalsobecausetheyareadvantageoustoindividualsandtosociety.Duringthistransition,itcanbeexpectedthatconflict,atalllevels


ofhuman life,will increase. In the longterm,suchconflictwillbemosteffectivelyandconstructivelyresolvedwith both/and rather than either/or strategies and through theintegrationofthevaluesofEpochAandEpochB.Thepresentperiodisespeciallysensitive. Inresistingchange,wemayclingtovaluesthatareobsolete and exceed the tolerance of nature. Resisting change mayameliorate some problems in the short term but will not provide thebasicshiftinvaluesneededinthisepochaltransition.”

“Those intheBabyBoomgenerationwereborn justbefore thepointofinflection; however, the inflection of the curve occurred during theirlifetimes.Thus, theywereborn in therealityofEpochAbuthave livedthe later part of their lives in Epoch B—the part of the curve wheregrowthisslowing.ThoseintheMillennialgenerationwerebornafterthepointofinflectionofthegrowthcurve,fullyinEpochB.Fromthetimeoftheirbirth,therealitytheyhaveexperiencedhasbeenoneofawarenessof limits, the need to conserve, and the sense of the planet as anintegratedwhole.Thus,theirattitudes,values,andbehaviorshavebeenshaped by and are adapted to a reality very different from that

experiencedby anygenerationbeforethem.”

“Theepochalchangenowtakingplaceaffectseveryaspect of human life—individual and institutional,emotional and cognitive, personal andtechnological. It calls for the resolution ofimbalances and conflicts that have arisen in thecourse of preceding centuries and for theintegration of divergent tendencies in human life.This integrationwill occur inways thatwill differaccording to local history, culture, and ecologicalconditions,butitmustoccur.”

Salk,Jonas;JonathanSalk(2018):Anewreality:Human evolution for a sustainable future, CityPointPress,Stratford,CT.

67. Thegrowthimperative/trap(DouglasRushkoff,2016)

“Plantsgrow,peoplegrow,evenwholeforests,jungles,andcoralreefsgrow—buteventually,theystop.Thisdoesn’t mean they’re dead. They’ve simply reached a level of maturity where health is no longer aboutgetting bigger but about sustaining vitality. Theremay be a turnover of cells, organisms, and even entirespecies,butthewholesystemlearnstomaintainitselfovertime,withouttheobligationtogrow.Companiesdeservetoworkthiswayaswell.Theyshouldbeallowedtogettoanappropriatesizeandthenstaythere,orevengetsmallerifthemarketplacechangesforawhile.Butinthecurrentbusinesslandscape,that’sjustnotpermitted. Corporations in particular are duty bound to grow by any means necessary. For Coke, Pepsi,Exxon,andCitibank,there’snosuchthingas“bigenough”;everyaspectoftheiroperationsisgearedtowardmeetingnewgrowth targetsperpetually. That’sbecause, like a shark thatmustmove inorder tobreathe,corporationsmustgrowinordertosurvive(…)Acorporationisjustasetofrules,andsoissoftware.It’sallcode, and it doesn’t care about people, our priorities, or our future unless we bother to program thoseconcernsintoit.” “The corporation has no choice other than to exercise the four sides of its original tetrad: extract value,squash localpeer‐to‐peermarkets,expand theempire,andseekpersonhood—all inorder togrowpotsofmoney,orcapital.Themostsuccessfulandmostloathedcorporationsofthelastcenturyallworkthisway.Walmart,foronereadyexample,livesbythetetrad.Itextractsvaluefromlocalcommunities,replacingtheirpeer‐to‐peereconomieswitha single,one‐waydistributionpoint for foreigngoods.Workersarepaid less


than they earned in their previousjobs or businesses and are oftenlimitedtopart‐timeemploymentsothe company can externalize thecost of health care and otherbenefits to local government (…)Whenitmovesintoanewregion,itundercuts the prices of localmerchants—often taking a loss onsales of locally available g oodssimply to put smaller merchantsout of business (…) Walmartretrieves the values of empire,where expansion is the primaryaim. Ithasopenedasmanyasonestore a day in the United Statesalone.7 The company sometimesopens two stores, ten or twentymiles apart in a new region, andkeeps them both open until localmerchants go out of business andnew consumer patterns areestablished. Then it closes the lesspopular store, forcing thoseconsumers to travel to the otherone(…)Finally, in its fliptowardpersonhood,Walmarthasattemptedtoaccomplishall thiswithahumanface—quite literally. The company adopted a version of the iconic 1970s yellow smiley face as a brandpersonality (…)Walmart’smottowent from theutilitarianand immortal ‘AlwaysLowPrices’ to themuchmorehumanistic‘SaveMoney.LiveBetter.’”

Rushkoff,Douglas(2016):ThrowingrocksattheGooglebus:Howgrowthbecametheenemyofprosperity,Portfolio/Penguin.

68. Thetwocompetingnarrativesofpoliticaleconomy(CapaldiandLloyd,2011)

The liberty narrative. It originated with John Locke but became associated with Adam Smith. Thisnarrative: (a)promotespersonal autonomyandboth economic andpolitical liberty; (b)has apositiveviewofmarkets,technologyandprivateproperty;and(c)encouragesthepursuitofhappiness(progressisimprovement).

Theequalitynarrative.ItoriginatedwithJean‐JacquesRousseaubutbecameassociatedwithKarlMarx.Thisnarrative:(a)promotesthesocialgood,restrictionsofindividualautonomyandbotheconomicandpoliticalequality;(b)emphasizestheproblemscausedbymarkets,technologyandprivateproperty;and(c)encouragesthesecuringofhappiness(progressisperfection).

69. Thethreephasesofnetworks(JeffStibel,2013)

“There are three phases to any successful network: first, the network grows and grows and growsexponentially; second, the network hits a breakpoint,where it overshoots itself and overgrows to a pointwhereitmustdecline,eitherslightlyorsubstantially;finally,thenetworkhitsequilibriumandgrowsonlyinthecerebralsense,inqualityratherthaninquantity.”

Economytypes


“Internets, ant colonies, and brains all start small, growsteadily, and then explode into hypergrowth. In nature, allspeciesmultiply asmuch as resources allow. This expansionmay start linearly, but it quickly becomes exponential.Populations of plants, animals, yeast, and brain cells growunencumbered until they reach the maximum quantity thattheenvironmentcansustain,thecarryingcapacity of anecosystem.”

“Ant colonies,various otheranimal species,brains, and

internets are all networks, and as such they follow the samepattern of growth, breakpoint, and equilibrium. They start outsmallandgrowexplosivelytothepointwheretheyovershootandcollapse. A successful network has only a small collapse, out ofwhich a stronger network emerges wherein it reachesequilibrium, oscillating aroundan ideal size (…)At thephaseofequilibrium,networkscontinuetogrow,butintermsofqualityinsteadofquantity.Whenthesizeofanetworkslows,otherthingsspeedup—likecommunication,intelligence,andconsciousness.Atthispoint,therealmagicbegins.This lastnetworkphase ispoorlyunderstood,evenbybiologists.Weare justbeginningto learnaboutequilibriumsinbiologicalsystems,letaloneintechnology.”

Stibel,Jeff(2013):Breakpoint:Whythewebwillimplode,searchwillbeobsolete,andeverythingelseyouneedtoknowabouttechnologyisinyourbrain.

70. MattRidley(2010)onthemodernglobaleconomy

“Toexplainthemodernglobaleconomy,then,youhavetoexplainwherethisperpetualinnovationmachinecamefrom.Whatkick‐startedtheincreasingreturns?Theywerenotplanned,directedorordered:theyemerged,evolved,bottom‐up,fromspecialisationandexchange.Theacceleratedexchangeofideasandpeoplemadepossiblebytechnologyfuelledtheacceleratinggrowthofwealththathascharacterisedthepastcentury.”

“Innovationislikeabushfirethatburnsbrightlyforashorttime,thendiesdownbeforeflaringupsomewhereelse.At50,000yearsago,thehottesthot‐spotwaswestAsia(ovens,bows‐and‐arrows),at10,000theFertileCrescent(farming,pottery),at5,000Mesopotamia(metal,cities),at2,000India(textiles,zero),at1,000China(porcelain,printing),at500Italy(double‐entrybook‐keeping,Leonardo),at400theLowCountries(theAmsterdamExchangeBank),at300France(CanalduMidi),at200England(steam),at100Germany(fertiliser);at75America(massproduction),at50California(creditcard),at25Japan(Walkman).Nocountryremainsforlongtheleaderinknowledgecreation(…)Whymustthetorchbepassedelsewhereatall?(…)Theanswerliesintwophenomena:institutionsandpopulation.Inthepast,whensocietiesgorgedoninnovation,theysoonallowedtheirbabiestogrowtoonumerous(…)ortheyallowedtheirbureaucratstowritetoomanyrules,theirchiefstowagetoomanywars,ortheirprieststobuildtoomanymonasteries(…)ortheysankintofinanceandbecameparasiticrentiers.”

Ridley,Matt(2010):Therationaloptimist:Howprosperityevolves,HarperCollins,NewYork.


71. TheOlduvaitheoryofindustrialcivilization(http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai.htm)

TheOlduvai theoryof industrialcivilizationholds that industrialcivilizations lastaroundonecentury.Thevariablethatdeterminestheriseandfallofanindustrialcivilizationisenergyproductionpercapita.

“TheOlduvaiTheorystatesthatthelifeexpectancyofindustrialcivilizationisapproximately100years:circa1930‐2030.Energyproductionpercapita(e)definesit.Theexponentialgrowthofworldenergyproductionendedin1970...Averageewillshownogrowthfrom1979throughcirca2008...Therateofchangeofewillgosteeply negative circa 2008... World population will decline to about two billion circa 2050... A growingnumberofindependentstudiesconcur...”

RichardC.Duncan (2005‐2006): “TheOlduvaiTheory.Energy,population,and industrial civilization”,TheSocialContract,Winter2005‐2006.

72. Ian Bremmer’s (2006) J curve between stability and

openness

“Eachnationwhoselevelofstabilityandopennesswewanttomeasureappearsasadatapointonthegraph.These data points, taken together, produce a J shape.Nations to the left of the dip in the J are less open;nations to the rightaremoreopen.Nationshigheronthegrapharemorestable;thosethatarelowerarelessstable.”(Bremmer,2006,p.6)

Bremmer, Ian (2006): The J curve: A new way tounderstandwhynationsriseandfall,Simon&Schuster,NewYork.

73. Lawsofcapitalisteconomies(MichaelHudson)

“Theinexorabletendencyofdebttogrowbeyondtheabilitytobepaid.”

“Thereisnowaytosustaintheriseindebtwithoutkillingtheeconomy.”

“Neoliberals say they’re against government, but what they’re really against is democratic government. (…) AsGermany’sWolfgang Schäuble said, ‘democracy doesn’t count.’ Neoliberals want the kind of government that willcreategainsforthebanks,notnecessarilyfortheeconomyatlarge.Suchgovernmentsbasicallyareoligarchic.Oncehighfinancetakesovergovernmentsasameansofexploitingthe99%,it’sallforactivegovernmentpolicy–foritself.”

Hudson,Michael(2017):Jisforjunkeconomics:Aguidetorealityinanageofdeception,ISLET‐Verlag.

tool making

fire use

Agricultural Revolution

Watt’s steam engine

1978

1996

failed reindustrialization

attempts

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