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Dinàmica Macroeconòmica · Tecnologia ǀ 19 setembre 2019 ǀ 1 Dinàmica Macroeconòmica 20192020 “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being selfevident.” Arthur Schopenhauer (1788–1860) 1. Technological solutions are not complete solutions “… global hunger is often seen as a technical problem, rather than a distribution problem. Thus, the Green Revolution, initiated in the mid‐1900s, was offered as a way to increase global production of food, declaring that this would help stem international hunger. It was also part of a development project that hoped to undercut revolutionary movements in the Third World. Rather than promoting the redistribution of land through agrarian reform, to give people access to the means of production, a technical package was promoted throughout the global South (…) High‐yield varieties of cereal crops, which required massive inputs of fertilizers and pesticides, and extensive systems of irrigation, were promoted (…) This model imposed the industrial‐agricultural practices of the global North throughout the world. The Green Revolution geared agricultural production to specialization in exports. It furthered the concentration of land within nations, as the new practices were expensive to operate and maintain (…) The Green Revolution did increase global food production at a rate that surpassed population growth. However, hunger, malnutrition, and famine persisted. This illustrates the important point that technological fixes rarely solve problems that have their origin in larger social structures. Obviously, producing enough food for all people is a necessary condition to avoid hunger, but it is far from a sufficient one. Thus, although society is faced with a technical challenge of producing enough food, high food production will not in and of itself eliminate hunger.” York, Richard; Brett Clark (2010): “Nothing new under the sun? The old false promise of new technology”, Review (Fernand Braudel Center) 3(2/3), 203224. “The main difficulty underlying the use of technology to solve social problems is that these problems are fundamentally different from technical problems.” Volti, Rudi (2017): Society and technological change, Worth Publishers, New York. 2. When technologies solve a problem, they create new ones “The industrial ‘solution’ to the soil and food crises has contributed to the climate crisis, while agricultural land continues to be degraded. The historic pattern with regard to addressing the depletion of soil nutrients is clear: each ‘solution’ creates new problems, new ecological rifts, without necessarily solving the old one.” “Many of the aforementioned solutions are rooted in a sincere concern to address climate change. Each of these ‘new ideas’ to attend to longstanding ecological contradictions are based on the same approach that capitalism has always used to confront crises frame each crisis as a technical problem that can be solved through modern technology, while ignoring the social barriers to adoption and the underlying socio‐ecological contradictions of the capitalist world‐system (…) This approach is very dangerous, given that if a problem is assumed solvable through technological development, it is also assumed that it is unnecessary to take actions to preserve forests, curtail the burning of fossil fuels, transform agricultural production, and change the political‐economic conditions that have created these problems. Each of the proposed solutions identified above entails numerous unintended ecological consequences and would, therefore, likely set off another wave of environmental problems that would need to be addressed in the future.” “Capitalism is inherently anti‐ecological as it systematically subordinates nature in its pursuit of endless accumulation. Its appetite is insatiable, as it attempts to overcome, surmount, and/or conquer what ever social and natural obstacles it confronts in its development. Even if the proposed solutions were implemented, the social rela tions driving ecological degradation are still in place, continuing to generate problems.” York, Richard; Brett Clark (2010): “Nothing new under the sun? The old false promise of new technology”, Review (Fernand Braudel Center) 3(2/3), 203224.

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DinàmicaMacroeconòmica2019‐2020

“Alltruthpassesthroughthreestages.First, it isridiculed.Second, it isviolentlyopposed.Third, it isacceptedasbeingself‐evident.” ArthurSchopenhauer(1788–1860)

1. Technologicalsolutionsarenotcompletesolutions

“…globalhungerisoftenseenasatechnicalproblem,ratherthanadistributionproblem.Thus,theGreenRevolution,initiatedinthemid‐1900s,wasofferedasawaytoincreaseglobalproductionoffood,declaringthat thiswouldhelp stem international hunger. Itwas also part of a development project that hoped toundercutrevolutionarymovements in theThirdWorld.Rather thanpromotingtheredistributionof landthrough agrarian reform, to give people access to the means of production, a technical package waspromoted throughout the global South (…) High‐yield varieties of cereal crops, which requiredmassiveinputs of fertilizers and pesticides, and extensive systems of irrigation, were promoted (…) This modelimposed the industrial‐agricultural practices of the global North throughout the world. The GreenRevolution geared agricultural production to specialization in exports. It furthered the concentration ofland within nations, as the new practices were expensive to operate and maintain (…) The GreenRevolution did increase global food production at a rate that surpassed population growth. However,hunger, malnutrition, and famine persisted. This illustrates the important point that technological fixesrarelysolveproblemsthathavetheirorigininlargersocialstructures.Obviously,producingenoughfoodfor all people is anecessary condition to avoid hunger, but it is far from a sufficient one. Thus, althoughsocietyisfacedwithatechnicalchallengeofproducingenoughfood,highfoodproductionwillnotinandofitselfeliminatehunger.”

York, Richard; Brett Clark (2010): “Nothing new under the sun? The old false promise of newtechnology”,Review(FernandBraudelCenter)3(2/3),203‐224.

“Themaindifficultyunderlyingtheuseof technologytosolvesocialproblemsis thattheseproblemsarefundamentallydifferentfromtechnicalproblems.”

Volti,Rudi(2017):Societyandtechnologicalchange,WorthPublishers,NewYork.

2. Whentechnologiessolveaproblem,theycreatenewones

“Theindustrial‘solution’tothesoilandfoodcriseshascontributedtotheclimatecrisis,whileagriculturallandcontinuestobedegraded.Thehistoricpatternwithregardtoaddressingthedepletionofsoilnutrientsisclear:each‘solution’createsnewproblems,newecologicalrifts,withoutnecessarilysolvingtheoldone.”

“Manyof theaforementionedsolutionsarerootedina sincereconcernto addressclimatechange.Eachofthese‘newideas’toattendtolongstandingecologicalcontradictionsarebasedonthesameapproachthatcapitalismhasalwaysusedtoconfrontcrisesframeeachcrisisasatechnicalproblemthatcanbesolvedthroughmoderntechnology,whileignoringthesocialbarrierstoadoptionandtheunderlying socio‐ecological contradictions of the capitalist world‐system (…) This approach is verydangerous,giventhatif aproblemisassumedsolvablethroughtechnologicaldevelopment,it isalsoassumed that it isunnecessary to take actions topreserve forests, curtail theburningof fossil fuels,transformagriculturalproduction,andchangethepolitical‐economicconditionsthathavecreatedtheseproblems. Each of the proposed solutions identified above entails numerous unintended ecologicalconsequencesandwould,therefore,likelysetoffanotherwaveofenvironmentalproblemsthatwouldneedtobeaddressedinthefuture.”

“Capitalismisinherentlyanti‐ecologicalasitsystematicallysubordinatesnatureinitspursuitofendlessaccumulation. Itsappetiteis insatiable, as itattemptsto overcome, surmount, and/or conquerwhateversocialandnaturalobstaclesitconfrontsinitsdevelopment.Eveniftheproposedsolutionswereimplemented, the social rela tions driving ecological degradation are still in place, continuing togenerateproblems.”

York, Richard; Brett Clark (2010): “Nothing new under the sun? The old false promise of newtechnology”,Review(FernandBraudelCenter)3(2/3),203‐224.

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“…technologicaladvancehasbeenthegreatestsinglesourceofeconomicgrowth.(…)Whiletechnologicaldevelopmenthasbeentheprimarysourceofeconomicadvance,ithasnotbeencost‐free.Oneofthemostpleasant myths about technology is that it can work its wonders without altering existing socialarrangements. Americans in particular have often seen technological progress as the surest basis forprogress in general, andhave tended tobelieve that technological solutions toproblemsare lesspainfulthan solutions that require political or social changes (…) Technological change is often a subversiveprocessthatresultsinthemodificationordestructionofestablishedsocialroles,relationships,andvalues.Evenatechnologythat isusedexclusively forbenignpurposeswillcausedisruptionsbyalteringexistingsocialstructuresandrelationships.”

Volti,Rudi(2017):Societyandtechnologicalchange,WorthPublishers,NewYork.

3. Theparadoxofdevelopment(Morris,2010)

“Rising social development generates the very forces that undermine further social development.” Anunintended consequence of success is new the emergence of new problems, whose solutions lead toadditional(probably,moreserious)problems.Socialdevelopmentstagnatesordeclineswhenthechallengeoftemporarysuccessisnotmet:everysocietyracesagainstitselfunderanunstoppableRedQueeneffect.

Morris,Ian(2010):WhytheWestrules—fornow.Thepatternsofhistoryandwhattheyrevealaboutthefuture,ProfileBooks,London.

4. Technologicalchangecreateswinnersandlosers

“The disruptive effects of technological change can readily be seen in the economic realm, where newtechnologies can lead to thedestructionofobsolete firms (…)Sometimes thedisruption is lessapparentwhen technological innovation results in the creation of entirely new industries that are not in directcompetition with existing ones. Many new industries and individual firms owe their existence to theemergence of a new technology. Witness, for example, the rapid growth of personal computermanufacturing,peripheralequipmentproduction,softwarepublishing,andappdevelopmentthatfollowedtheinventionoftheintegratedcircuit.”

“Technological changes, both major and minor, often lead to a restructuring of power relations, theredistributionofwealthandincome,andalterationstohumanrelationships.Onerecentandmuch‐debatedinstanceofadisruptivenewtechnologyistheriseofride‐sharingserviceslikeUberandLyft.”

Volti,Rudi(2017):Societyandtechnologicalchange,WorthPublishers,NewYork.

5. TheJevonsparadox:improvingtheefficienyintheuseofaresource(byadoptinganewtechnology)

doesnotimplyreducingtheuseoftheresource

“It iswhollyaconfusionof ideastosupposethattheeconomicaluseof fuel isequivalenttoadiminishedconsumption.Theverycontraryisthetruth.”(Jevons,1866,p.123)

“Thenumberoftonsofcoalusedinanybranchofindustryistheproductofthenumberofseparateworks,andtheaveragenumberoftonsconsumedineach.Now,ifthequantityofcoalusedinablast‐furnace,forinstance,bediminishedincomparisonwiththeyield,theprofitsofthetradewillincrease,newcapitalwillbe attracted, the price of pig‐iron will fall, but the demand for it increase; and eventually the greaternumber of furnaceswillmore thanmakeup for thediminished consumption of each.And if such is notalways the result within a single branch, it must be remembered that the progress of any branch ofmanufactureexcitesanewactivityinmostotherbranches,andleadsindirectly,ifnotdirectly,toincreasedinroadsuponourseamsofcoal.”(Jevons,1866,pp.124‐125)

Jevons,WilliamStanley(1866):Thecoalquestion,2nded.,Macmillan,London.

“Whileonthesurfaceitseemsobviousthatimprovementsinefficiencymusthelpcurbresourceuse,sinceby definition improved efficiency reduces the amount of resources used per unit of production orconsumption, there is a considerable amount of evidence that rising efficiency is often correlated with

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risingresourceuseatvariousscalesandinvariouscontextsthroughitsconnectiontogrowthofproductionandconsumption.”

York, Richard; Julius AlexanderMcGee (2015): “Understanding the Jevons paradox”, EnvironmentalSociology,DOI:10.1080/23251042.2015.1106060.

6. Information≠knowledge(‘BigData≠BigWisdom’),technologicalworld≠socialworld

“Thosewhohavethetechnicalknowledgeandcompetence(…)toinventthemarveloustechnologiesthatareintegralpartsofourlivesdonotnecessarilyhavetheaccompanyingsocial,managerialknowledge,andskills (…)—in short, thematurity—that are necessary tomanage theirmarvelous creations. They are somesmerized by the positive aspects of their inventions that they are virtually unable to consider theinevitablenegativeaspects, letalone todoanythingseriousabout themuntil theworstactuallyhappens(…) The technology community has only itself to blame for not practicing proactive crisismanagement.While not perfect by any means, proactive crisis management is the best we have in anticipating andplanningfortheworst,andespecially,doingeverythinghumanelypossibletoensurethatitneverhappens.Buttodothisrequirestechnologycompanieswithagreaterconscience.Designingandsustainingethicaltechnology companies are a task of the utmost importance. Nothing less ensures that technology willcontinuetobeoneofthegreatestthreatsfacinghumankind.”

“More than two decades into the internet revolution,we now know that ‘technology is an amplifer’ forhumanity’sworst traitsaswellasourbest.What itdoesn’tdo ismakeusbetterpeople.” (NicholasCarr,“ConnectionCanBredContempt”,citedinTheWeek,May5,2017,p.16,citedinMitroff,p.vii)

Mitroff,IanI.(2019):Technologyrunamok.Crisismanagement inthedigitalage,PalgraveMacmillan,Cham,Switzerland.7. Factsthat,together,leadanorganizationanditsleaderstodisaster

“1. Too much early success is actually detrimental to long‐term survival and prosperity. It makes onecomplacent and thereby blind to the fact that there are serious problems lurking within one’s basicbusinessmodelthatneedtobeaddressedsoonerratherthanlater.

2.Thefactthatonehasweatheredearlycrisesalsoblindsonetothefactthatoneneedstostartbuildingaseriousprogramincrisismanagementinordertobepreparedformajorcriseslateronthatcan’tbeeasilydismissed.

3.Thesmugassumptionthatcomparedtotechnology,managementiseasy,ifnottrivial,preventsonefromtakingmanagementseriously(…)

4. The best crisis‐prepared companies take immediate responsibility for their crises. They don’t issuemeaninglessapologiesthatonlymaketheinitialcrisesworse.

5.And,finally,TheTechnologicalMindsetblindsitsproponentstothefactthatalltechnologiesareabusedandmisused inwaysnotenvisionedby their creators.Worst, it seriouslyhampersone fromconsideringthat all technologies comewith serious downsides, and therefore, from taking appropriate preventativeactionstomitigatetheirworsteffects.”

Mitroff,IanI.(2019):Technologyrunamok.Crisismanagement inthedigitalage,PalgraveMacmillan,Cham,Switzerland.8. Theoretical approaches on the choice

andeffectsoftechnologies

“… how scholars have historicallyexplained technology choices in theworkplace. Two schools of thought havedominated explanations to date. The firstschool, known as technologicaldeterminism, predicts inevitable anduniversal roles, patterns of use, and

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consequencesforatechnology;thesecondschool,socialconstructivism,arguesforlocalroles,patternsofuse,andconsequencesthatareparticulartoindividualsororganizations.”

“The first distinction is between determinism (external forces are the agents of change; outcomes areinevitable)andvoluntarism(humansare theagentsofchange;outcomesarenot inevitable).Theseconddistinction is betweenmaterialism (physical causes drive human action) and idealism (ideas andbeliefsdrive human action).We show that, in the two‐by‐two scheme that results from these two distinctions,technological determinism is a form ofmaterialistic determinism, and social constructivism is a formofidealisticvoluntarism.Recentalternativestothesetwoschoolsofthought, includingsociomaterialityandcritical realism, are forms of materialistic voluntarism. We argue that idealistic determinism, theunderstudiedfourthconceptualspaceinthistwo‐by‐twoscheme,offersthepotentialforanew,alternativeperspectivewhoseadvantagesaddresstheshortcomingsofexistingexplanationsoftechnologychoice.”

Bailey,DianeE.;PaulM.Leonardi(2015):Technologychoices:Whyoccupationsdifferintheirembraceofnewtechnology,MITPress,Cambridge,MA.9. Themorecomplexatechnology,thelesscomprehensibleandthelesssecure?

“…today’stechnologicalcomplexityhasreachedatippingpoint.Thearrivalofthecomputerhasintroduceda certain amount ofradicalnoveltyto our situation (…)Computer hardware and software ismuchmorecomplexthananythingthatcamebeforeit,withmillionsoflinesofcomputercodeinasingleprogramandmicrochips that are engineered down to a microscopic scale. As computing has become embedded ineverythingfromourautomobilesandourtelephonestoourfinancialmarkets,technologicalcomplexityhaseclipsedourabilitytocomprehendit.”

“…wesimplyhavenoideaofthehugenumberofwaysthattheseincrediblycomplextechnologiescangowrong.”

“…there are certain trends and forces that overcomplicate our technologies and make themincomprehensible,nomatterwhatwedo.These forcesmeanthatwewillhavemoreandmoredays likeJuly8,2015,whenthesystemswethinkofasreliablecomecrashingdownininexplicableglitches.”

Arbesman,Samuel (2016):Overcomplicated.Technologyat the limitsof comprehension,Current,NewYork.

“Peoplearejustcurious.Whatfollowsinthewakeoftheirdiscoveriesissomethingforthenextgenerationtoworryabout.” WernervonBraun

10. Definingelementsoftechnology:howcontrollableistechnology?

“Weliveinaneraoftechnologicalenthusiasm.It’snottoovastageneralizationtosaythatAmericans,alongwithmuchof theworld,aredeeply,passionately in lovewith thetechnologies theyuse in theirpersonallives.We’realsobeguiledbythepromisesofscientistsandengineerswhosaythat, thankstothem,we’llsoonbeable todo justaboutanythingwewant todo. ‘Atourcurrent rateof technologicalgrowth,’ saidElonMusk,CEOofTeslaMotorsandSpaceX, ‘humanity isonapath tobegodlike in its capabilities.’ (…)Suchcommentsalsotestifytoamorerecentwrinkleinutopianvisions:thatnewtechnologieswillbeabletoremedytheproblemscreatedbyprevioustechnologies.Weseethesamefaithatworkintheconvictionof those who believe we’ll come up with some way of reversing the catastrophe of global warming by‘geoengineering’theclimateoftheentireplanet.”

“Fourbasic,overlappingcharacteristicsorsetsofcharacteristicscanbecitedasfundamentalelementsofthe nature of technology. They are (1) Technology is by nature expansive. (2) Technology is by naturerational, direct, and aggressive. (3) Technology by its nature combines or converges with othertechnologies.(4)Technologybyitsnaturestrivesforcontrol(…)Thefourcharacteristics(…)pointtothecentralquestionofwhethertechnologyatsomepointbecomesautonomous—thatis,doestechnologyatanadvancedstageofdevelopmentbecomeimpossibleforhumanbeingstocontrol?”

“Ifthereisasinglelesson(…)thatIcoulddrumintothemindofeverytechnicianontheplanet,itwouldbethe certaintyofuncertainty.Fordespite theirwillingness to acknowledgeuncertaintyon themicro level

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and to use it to improve performance, technophiles consistently evince a depressingly broad degree ofmyopia in regard to uncertainty on themacro level. In otherwords, scientists and engineerswill focusintentlyon the inconsistencies thatappearwithin theirspecificprojectsandworkdiligently togetridofthem.Atthesametimethey’llbeperfectlywillingtooverlooktheunpredictableresultsof theirprojects’interactionswithother, supposedlyunrelated technologies in theworldat large. Indoing so they ignoretwo(…)principles:

1.Therearenounrelatedtechnologies.

2.Themorepowerfulagiventechnology,themorewidelyitseffectswillradiateoutward,themoredifficultitwillbetopredictthoseeffects,andthemoredamagingthoseeffectscanpotentiallybe(…)Theeffectsofpowerful technologiesradiateoutward,producing in theprocessconsequences thatarebothunintendedandunexpected,oftenatvelocitiesthatexceedourabilitytostoporcontainthem.”

“Technologydoesn’t fix technology, technologydemands technology.Given thatweseemunable tomakeevenminor sacrificesof consumptionandconvenience,weprobablyhavenochoicebut tostay, in somefashion, the technological course (…) The societies we’ve constructed are so utterly dependent on ourmachines that any attempt to abruptly disconnectwould be spectacularly, fatally disruptive. Unless anduntilwefindawaytorepositionourselvesinrelationtonature,we’reprettymuchstuck.”

“It’satruismthatpowercorrupts,andatitsmostfundamentalleveltechnologyisaboutpower.Itfollowsthatarroganceandoverconfidencemaybenaturalby‐productsoftechnologicalpower.”

“[NorbertWiener] said that the only true security comes from ‘humility and restrained ambitions’ (…)Technologyisatwo‐edgedsword,hesaid,‘andsoonerorlateritwillcutyoudeep’.”

“Iseenoharminmentioningtwogeneralsuggestionsthatwould,ifwidelyandcomprehensivelypursued,move us in a positive direction. The first of these is restraint. Cut back, on everything (…) My secondsuggestionis(…)paysomeattentiontoredressingtheimbalance,inthecultureingeneralandineducationinparticular,betweenmeansandends.”

Hill,Doug(2016):Notsofast:Thinkingtwiceabouttechnology,TheUniversityofGeorgiaPress,Athens,Georgia.11. Somelawsontechnology

Arthur C. Clarke’s third law of prediction: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishablefrommagic.”

Variation onClarke’s thirdbyMark Stanley (Freefall): “Any technology, regardless of howadvanced,willseemlikemagictothosewhodonotunderstandit.”

MelvinKranzberg'ssixlawsoftechnologyo Firstlaw.“Technologyisneithergoodnorbad;norisitneutral.”o Secondlaw.“Inventionisthemotherofnecessity.”o Thirdlaw.“Technologycomesinpackages,bigandsmall.”

o Fourthlaw.“Althoughtechnologymightbeaprimeelementinmanypublicissues,nontechnicalfactorstakeprecedenceintechnology‐policydecisions.”

o Fifthlaw.“Allhistoryisrelevant,butthehistoryoftechnologyisthemostrelevant.”

Amara’s law(RoyCharlesAmara,1925‐2007):“Wetendtooverestimatetheeffectofa technology intheshortrunandunderestimatetheeffectinthelongrun.”

Hutber’s law (Patrick Hutber): “Improvement means deterioration.” (Anything presented as animprovementhidesadeterioration.)

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Murphy’slaws(Koch,Richard(2013):The80‐20principleand92otherpowerlawsofnature)o “Lefttothemselves,thingsgofrombadtoworse.”o “Ifanythingcangowrong,itwill.”o “Ifseveralthingscangowrong,theonethatwillcausethemostdamagewillgowrongfirst.”o “Ifanythingjustcannotgowrong,itwillanyway.”o “Theprobabilityofanythinghappeningisproportionaltothedamageitwillcause.”

12. Istechnologicalevolutioninevitable?

“…wedohavethreetypesofevidencestronglysuggestingthatthepathsoftechnologiesareinevitable:

1. In all times we find that most inventions anddiscoveries have been made independently by morethanoneperson.

2. In ancient times we find independent timelines oftechnology on different continents converging upon asetorder.

3.Inmoderntimeswefindsequencesofimprovementthataredifficulttostop,derail,oralter.”

Complexityofmanufacturedmachines

AcceleratingPaceofTechnologyAdoption.ThepercentageofU.S.consumersowningorusinga

particulartechnologyplottedoverthenumberofyearssinceitsinvention

Kelly, Kevin (2010):What technology wants, Viking,NewYork.

13. Thetechnologicalproject

CapaldiandLloyd(2011,pp.xiii‐xv)holdthattheriseofthetecnologicalprojectintheWest(thecontrolandtransformationofnatureforhumanbenefit)hasbeenthemostimportantdevelopmentinthelast400years.Theyattributetothetechnologicalproject:(i)thechangesinthemindset,beliefsandinstitutionsintheWest;(ii)theexpansionoftheWesttodominatetheRest;(iii)theIndustrialRevolution;and(iv)theinternationalizationofWesterninstitutions(‘globalization’).Thefreemarketeconomyisseenasthemosteffectiveinstitutiontodevelopthetechnologicalproject.

14. ThetwocompetingnarrativesofPoliticalEconomy

(i) The liberty narrative. It originatedwith John Locke but became associatedwith Adam Smith. Thisnarrative:(a)promotespersonalautonomyandbotheconomicandpoliticalliberty;(b)hasapositiveview of markets, technology and private property; and (c) encourages the pursuit of happiness(progressisimprovement).

(ii) The equality narrative. It originated with Jean‐Jacques Rousseau but became associated with KarlMarx. This narrative: (a) promotes the social good, restrictions of individual autonomy and botheconomic and political equality; (b) emphasizes the problems caused by markets, technology andprivateproperty;and(c)encouragesthesecuringofhappiness(progressisperfection).

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Capaldi,Nicholas;GordonLloyd(2011):ThetwonarrativesofPoliticalEconomy,Scrivener,Salem,MAandWiley,Hoboken,NJ.15. Thethreerecentepochsofcapitalism

(1) The Belle Epoch (1880‐1914): the first era of global financial capitalism; (2) the GoldenAge (1945‐1975)ofcapitalism;(3)theNeoliberalEra(1980‐2019):theseconderaofglobalfinancialcapitalism.TheBelleEpoch, theproductof the cumulativedevelopmentof capitalism, collapsed: twoworldwarswithaGreat Depression in between. By comparing the Belle Epoch with the Neoliberal Era, Thomas Piketty(2014)anticipatesthepersistenceofalow‐growthregimeandatraumaticendtotheNeoliberalEra(globalwarsandeconomiccrises),unless there isaglobalpoliticalpeaceful reorganization thatstops the forcesthat,throughtheprogressiveaccumulationofcapitalinfewerhands,isexacerbatingclassconflict.AsintheGolden Age, an interventionistwelfare state (at a global scale) is the needed counterbalancing force, totempertheforcesofglobalfinancialization,evenatthepriceofsacrificingeconomicgrowth.

Piketty,Thomas(2014):Capitalinthetwenty‐firstcentury,BelknapPress,Cambridge,MA.16. Ataleofgoodnews:thepossibilityofabundance

DiamandisandKotler(2012)claimthat,thankstoprogressinexponentiallygrowingtechnologies(suchasrobotics, computational systems, artifical intelligence, broadband networks, digital manufacturing, 3‐Dprinting, nanomaterials, human‐machine interfaces, synthetic biology, biomedical engineering…) “for thefirsttimeinhistory,ourcapabilitieshavebeguntocatchuptoourambitions.Humanityisnowenteringaperiod of radical transformation in which technology has the potential to significantly raise the basicstandardsoflivingforeveryman,woman,andchildontheplanet.Withinageneration,wewillbeabletoprovidegoodsandservices,oncereserved for thewealthy few, toanyandallwhoneed them.Ordesirethem.Abundance forall is actuallywithinourgrasp.” “Imagineaworldofninebillionpeoplewith cleanwater,nutritiousfood,affordablehousing,personalizededucation,top‐tiermedicalcare,andnonpolluting,ubiquitousenergy.Buildingthisbetterworldishumanity’sgrandestchallenge.”

17. Emergingforcesofabundance

(i)Exponentialtechnologies:networksandsensors;artificial intelligence;robotics;digitalmanufacturing;infinitecomputing;medicine;nanomaterials;nanotechnology…

(ii)Thedo‐it‐yourselfinnovator:“smallgroupsofdedicatedDIYinnovatorscannowtackleproblemsthatwereoncesolelythepurviewofbiggovernmentsandlargecorporations.”

(iii) The technophilanthropists: “The high‐tech revolution created an entirely new breed of wealthytechnophilanthropistswhoareusingtheirfortunestosolveglobal,abundance‐relatedchallenges.”Therichcan,andwill,savetheworld.

(iv)Therisingbillion,thepoorestofthepoor.Thecombinationofaglobaltransportationnetworkwiththeinternet,microfinanceandwirelesscommunicationtechnologyaretransformingthebottombillionintoanemergingmarketforce:the‘world’sbiggestmarket’.

Diamandis,PeterH.;StevenKotler(2012):Abundance:The future isbetterthanyouthink,FreePress,NewYork.18. TheMalthusianview(ThomasRobertMalthus)

Assumingthatpopulationtendstogrowifuncheckedandthatthereisalimittotheincreaseinagriculturalproductivity, it is not possible for an economy to enjoy population growth and real income growth:populationgrowthisalwaysconstrainedbyfoodsupply.

19. TheNeo‐Malthusianview

AlleconomiesareultimatelyconstrainedbythecarryingcapacityoftheEarth.

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20. TheBoserupianview(EsterBoserup)

Populationgrowthisnotconstrainedbyfoodsupply,becausepopulationgrowthcausesimprovementsinagriculturalproductivityandtechnology:anincreasingpopulationleadstotheintensification(morelabourinvested)intheuseofexistingresources(land).

21. Theconventionalview:threeregimesofeconomicdevelopment

GalorandWeil(1999,p.150;2000,p.806)characterizetheprocessofeconomicdevelopmentintermsofthree regimes. In historical order, they are called Malthusian, Post‐Malthusian, and Modern GrowthRegimes.

IntheMalthusianRegimetechnologicalprogressandpopulationgrowthwasalmostnegligible(“glacialbymodernstandards”),whereasincomepercapita(livingstandards)wasnearlyconstant.Inaddition,thereexistsapositiverelationshipbetweenincomepercapitaandpopulationgrowth:anincreaseinpercapitaincomeleadstoanincreaseinpopulationgrowth.

InthePost‐MalthusianRegimeincomepercapitagrowsbutthepositiverelationshipbetweenpercapitaincomeandpopulationgrowthstillholds:arisingincomepercapitacontinuestoleadtoarisingpopulationgrowthrate.

TheModernGrowthRegimeistheoppositeoftheMalthusianRegime:technologicallevelandincomepercapitasteadilygrow,atahigherratethaninthePost‐MalthusianRegime,andtherelationshipbetweenthelevel of income per capita and the population growth rate turns out to be negative, since now a risingincomepercapitaleadstoadecliningpopulationgrowthrate.

Galor, Oded; David N. Weil (1999): “From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth”, AmericanEconomicReview89(2),150‐154.

Galor,Oded;DavidN.Weil(2000):“Population,technology,andgrowth:FromMalthusianstagnationtothedemographictransitionandbeyond”,AmericanEconomicReview90(4),806‐828.

22. Theconventionalviewofthehistoryofhumanity(Clark,2007,p.1)

“The basic outline of worldeconomic history issurprisingly simple. Indeed itcan be summarized in onediagram [shownon the right,taken from Clark (2007, p.2)]. Before 1800 income perperson—the food, clothing,heat, light, and housingavailable per head—variedacross societies and epochs.But there was no upwardtrend. A simple but powerfulmechanism (…), theMalthusian Trap, ensuredthat short‐term gains inincomethroughtechnologicaladvanceswereinevitablylostthroughpopulationgrowth.Thustheaveragepersonintheworldof1800wasnobetteroffthantheaveragepersonof100,000BC.Indeedin1800thebulkoftheworld’spopulationwaspoorerthantheirremoteancestors.”

Clark,Gregory (2007):A farewell toalms:Abriefeconomichistoryof theworld,PrincetonUniversityPress,Princeton,NewJersey.

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23. 100thingsmachineslearnttodoin2016.SebastianHuembfer,https://goo.gl/fgKVAu

https://medium.com/echobox/100‐things‐machines‐learnt‐to‐do‐this‐year‐80b727a64231

24. ‘Artificial intelligence is the newelectricity’(AndrewNg)

Just as during the Second IndustrialRevolution the easy accessibility toelectricity made mass production andassembly lines possible, artificialintelligence is seen as the crucialelement for the Fourth IndustrialRevolution (tool to power othertechnologies andbe anewpart of ourlives).

Rouhiainen,Lasse(2018):Artificialintelligence:101thingsyoumustknowtodayaboutourfuture.25. FourthIndustrialRevolution(orIndustry4.0,termcoinedattheHannoverFair2011)

“Byenabling“smartfactories,”thefourthindustrialrevolutioncreatesaworldinwhichvirtualandphysicalsystemsofmanufacturinggloballycooperatewitheachother ina flexibleway.Thisenables theabsolutecustomization of products and the creation of new operating models. The fourth industrial revolution,however,isnotonlyaboutsmartandconnectedmachinesandsystems.Itsscopeismuchwider.Occurringsimultaneously are waves of further breakthroughs in areas ranging from gene sequencing tonanotechnology, fromrenewables toquantumcomputing. It is the fusionof these technologiesand theirinteraction across thephysical, digital andbiological domains thatmake the fourth industrial revolutionfundamentally different from previousrevolutions. In this revolution, emergingtechnologies and broad‐based innovation arediffusingmuch faster andmorewidely than inpreviousones,whichcontinuetounfoldinsomepartsoftheworld.”

Driversof the Fourth IndustrialRevolution.“All new developments and technologies haveone key feature in common: they leverage thepervasivepowerofdigitizationandinformationtechnology.” 

WhyaFourthIndustrialRevolutionisunderway. (i) “Velocity: Contrary to the previousindustrialrevolutions,thisoneisevolvingatanexponential rather than linear pace.” (ii)“Breadth and depth: It builds on the digitalrevolution and combines multiple technologiesthat are leading to unprecedented paradigmshifts in the economy, business, society, andindividually.” (iii) “Systems impact: It involvesthe transformation of entire systems, across(and within) countries, companies, industriesandsocietyasawhole.”

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Percentageofrespondentswhoexpectthatthespecifictippingpointwillhaveoccurredby2025,DeepShift—TechnologyTippingPointsandSocietalImpact,GlobalAgendaCouncilontheFutureofSoftwareandSociety,WorldEconomicForum,September2015.

Schwab,Klaus(2017):Thefourthindustrialrevolution,CrownBusiness,NewYork.

26. Onautomation(replacementofhumanjobsbymachines)

What ifmachineswill eventuallybeable todomost jobspeoplecurrentlydo(jobsperformedby typicalpeopleareautomated)andthatthepeopledisplacedbymachineswillnotbeabletofindanewjob?MartinFord argues tha when “full automation penetrates the job market to a substantial degree, an economydrivenbymass‐marketproductionmustultimatelygointodecline.Thereasonforthisissimplythat,whenweconsiderthemarketasawhole,thepeoplewhorelyonjobsfortheirincomearethesameindividualswhobuytheproductsproduced.”Sincemachinesarenotconsumers,themorebusinessautomatejobs,thesmallerbecomestheconsumerbase;withareductioninthepotentialsetofconsumers,businessareforcedtocutmorejobs,soglobaldemandisfurthernarroweddown.Automationthensetsinmotionadownwardspiral process in which the direct gains of automation in production are eventually neutralized by theindirect,globalnegativeimpactinconsumers’demand.

27. TheLudditefallacyfallacy?

NamedaftertheLudditemovement(startofthe19thcentury)advocatingmachinedestruction,theLudditefallacyreferstotheclaimthatmachineautomationisincapableofcreatingunemploymentataglobalscale.Theargumentisthattheunemploymentcausedbytechnologicalinnovation(duetotheworkers’outdatedskills)istemporary.Ontheonehand,automationreducesproductioncostsand,therefore,prices,andthatstimulatesconsumptiondemand.Ontheother,technologicalinnovationallowsnewproductionactivitiestoemergeandcreatenewjobopportunities.This lineofreasoningencapsulates theconventionaleconomicwisdomthattechnologicalimprovementsultimatelycreatejobs.

28. Humancapabilityvscomputertechnology

FordrepliestotheLudditefallacyviewthattheysuffer from a fallacy of composition effect.Specifically, thatviewrestson twopremises: (i)machines help workers to raise theirproductivity;and(ii)theaverageworkercanusemachines to improve their productivity. “Whathappens when these assumptions fail? Whathappens when machines become workers—when capital becomes labor? It is important tonotethatsuchachangeintherelationshipbetweenworkersandmachineswillhaveaworldwideimpact.”“… technologicalprogresswillneverstop,and in fact,maywellaccelerate.While today jobs that requirelowandmoderatelyskilledworkersarebeingcomputerized,tomorrowitwillbejobsperformedbyhighlyskilled and educatedworkers.” “The reality is that the Luddite fallacy amounts to nothingmore than ahistoricalobservation.Sincethingshaveworkedoutsofar,economistsassumethattheywillalwaysworkout.”(Ford,pp.97‐99)

29. Thetechnologicalsingularity(RayKurzweil)

Thetechnologicalsingularityisthehypothesisthatexponentialtechnologicalprogresswillbringadramaticchange (seismic consequences) inhuman life andhumansocieties (transcendourbiological limitations).

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Kurzweiljustifiedthishypothesisonthegroundsofthe‘lawofacceleratingreturns.’Atechnologysubjectto this law progresses in proportion to its level: the better the technology, themore rapidly it becomesbetter. Moore’s law is offered as an example: it is the conjecture, by Gordon Moore in the 1960s, thatcomputingpower(numberoftransistorsinafixedarea,memorycapacity)doublesevery1‐2years.MurrayShanahanhypothesizesthatthetechnologicalsingularitycouldbeprecipitatedbydevelopmentsinartificialintelligenceand/orneurotechnology.

30. Thesingularityisnear

“To this day, I remain convinced of this basicphilosophy: no matter what quandaries we face—business problems, health issues, relationshipdifficulties, as well as the great scientific, social, andculturalchallengesofourtime—thereisanideathatcanenableustoprevail.Furthermore,wecanfindthatidea.And when we find it, we need to implement it.”(Kurzweil,2005)“As the figure demonstrates, there were actually fourdifferentparadigms—electromechanical,relays,vacuumtubes, and discrete transistors—that showedexponential growth in the price‐performance of

computinglongbeforeintegratedcircuitswereeveninvented.AndMoore'sparadigmwon'tbethelast.WhenMoore'sLawreachestheendof itsS‐curve,nowexpectedbefore2020,theexponentialgrowthwillcontinuewiththree‐dimensionalmolecularcomputing,whichwillconstitutethesixthparadigm.”(Kurzweil,2005)

31. Economicparadoxofthesingularity:technologycouldkillitselfoff

“Inafreemarketeconomy,(…)thereisnoincentivetoproduceproducts if therearenoconsumerswithsufficient discretionary income to purchase those products. This is true even if intelligent machinessomedaybecomesuper‐efficientproducers.Ifaverage—orevenexceptional—humanbeingsareunabletofindemploymentwithintheircapabilities, thenhowwill theyacquirethe incomenecessarytocreatethedemand that in turn drives production? If we consider the singularity in this context, then is it reallysomething that will necessarily push us forward exponentially? Or could it in actuality lead to rapideconomicdecline?”(Ford,p.102)

Moore’s law 

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Ford’s ‘scary graph’: value added (wage, averageincome) of the average worker operating the averagemachine(Ford,p.136:“Asmoremachinesbegintorunthemselves, the value that the average worker addsbeginstodecline.”)

32. Wherearewenow?Ford’s(pp.224‐25)cases

“…conventionalwisdomiscorrect,andthecurrentcrisisisjustanaberration.”

“…we are still far away from the point whereautomationisgoingtobecomeimportant.”

“…wearegoingtoseeincreasingeconomicimpacts,andwewillhavedifficulty inachievingsustained,long‐termgrowth.IfIhadtobet,Iwouldchoosethiscase.”

“Ifthingshavegottenawayfromus,thenwecould,infact,bemuchfurtheralongthanweimagine.Thiscouldperhapsbeexplainedbysuggestingthatconsumerborrowingmaskedtherealityofthesituation(…)andthatthecurrentcrisis isthebeginningofthereckoning(…)If this is thecase,weneedtoadoptnewpoliciesrapidly.”

Ford,MartinR.(2009):Thelightsinthetunnel:Automation,acceleratingtechnologyandtheeconomyofthefuture, AcculantPublishing.

Kurzweil,Ray(2005):TheSingularityisnear:Whenhumanstranscendbiology,Viking,NewYork.

Shanahan,Murray(2015):Thetechnologicalsingularity,MITPress,Cambridge,MAandLondon.

33. PeterFrase’sfutures

The future world can end up dominated by either scarcity orabundance (reflecting ecological limits) and also by eitherhierarchyorequality(reflectingthepoliticallimitsofaclasssociety).Equality+abundance=communism(‘fromeachaccording to theirability, toeachaccording to theirneed’).Hierachy+abundance= rentism(‘thetechniquestoproduceabundancearemonopolizedbyasmallelite’).Equality+scarcity=socialism(‘live within your means while providing everyone the best lives possible’). Hierachy + scarcity =exterminism(‘communismforthefew’and‘genocidalwaroftherichagainstthepoor’).

Frase,Peter(2016):Fourfutures:Lifeaftercapitalism,Verso,NewYork.

34. JoelGarreau’sfuturescenarios

Curve scenario. Exponential improvement of information technologies extends over genetics,nanotechnologyandrobotics.

Singularity scenario. Exponential improvement is unstoppable, a super‐intelligence emerges, whichcontinuesitsowndevelopmentatanexponentialrate.

Heavenscenario(RayKurzweil).Allgoodthingshappen,evenwithoutaiming forthem:endofpovertyanddisease,thecomingofpeace,thetriumphoflove,wisdomandbeauty…

ABUNDANCE SCARCITY

EQUALITY Communism Socialism

HIERARCHY Rentism Exterminism

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Hellscenario(BillJoy).Technologicaladvances(infieldssuchasgenetics,nanotechnologyandrobotics)willthreatenthesurvivalofhumanity.

Prevailscenario(JaronLanier).Humanityrisestotheoccasion:ordinarypeoplechoosetofollowtherightpath,andmaketherightdecisions,effectively.

Garreau,Joel(2005):Radicalevolution:Thepromiseandperilofenhancingourminds,ourbodies–andwhatitmeanstobehuman,Doubleday,NewYork.

Joy,Bill(2000):“Whythefuturedoesn’tneedus”,Wired8.04.

35. Artificialsuperintelligence(ASI):curseorblessing?

“… there is noway toknowwhatASIwill doorwhattheconsequenceswillbeforus.Anyonewhopretendsotherwise doesn’t understand what superintelligencemeans (…) Looking at history, we can see that lifeworks like this: species pop up, exist for awhile, andafter some time, inevitably, they fall off the existencebalance beam and land on extinction—Bostrom calls

extinctionanattractorstate—aplacespeciesareallteeteringonfallingintoandfromwhichnospecieseverreturns(…)ASIwouldhavetheabilitytosendhumans to extinction,many also believe that usedbeneficially, ASI’s abilities could be used to bringindividualhumans,andthespeciesasawhole,toa

second attractor state—species immortality. Bostrom believes species immortality is just asmuch of anattractor state as species extinction, i.e. if we manage to get there, we’ll be impervious to extinctionforever.”

“Superintelligencewill yield tremendous power—the critical question for us is:Who orwhatwill be incontrolofthatpower,andwhatwilltheirmotivationbe?TheanswertothiswilldeterminewhetherASIisanunbelievablygreatdevelopment,anunfathomablyterribledevelopment,orsomethinginbetween.”

Urban,Tim(2015):TheAIrevolution.Theroadtosuperintelligence.

 

 

 

 

Beckert,Jens(2016):Imaginedfutures. Fictional expectationsandcapitalistdynamics.

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36. Doublingtimefortheworldeconomy(RobinHanson,2008)

Pleistocenehunter–gatherersociety:224,000years.Farmingsociety:909years.Industrialsociety,6.3years.

Hanson,Robin(2008):“Economicsofthesingularity”,IEEESpectrum45(6),45‐50.

“…thehumanspeciestooktensofthousandsofyearstospreadacrossmostoftheglobe,theAgriculturalRevolution thousands of years, the Industrial Revolution only hundreds of years, and an InformationRevolutioncouldbesaidtohavespreadgloballyoverthecourseofdecades.”

“Overlonghistoricaltimescales,therehasbeenanincreaseintherateatwhichknowledgeandtechnologydiffusearoundtheglobe.Asaresult,thetemporalgapsbetweentechnologyleadersandnearestfollowershavenarrowed.”

Bostrom,Nick(2014):Superintelligence.Paths,dangers,strategies.

37. Moore’slawofeverything(SamuelArbesman,2013)

“…thereareregularitiesinthesechangesintechnologicalknowledge.It’snotrandomandit’snoterratic.Thereisapattern,anditaffectsmanyofthefactsthatsurroundus,evenonesthatdon’tnecessarilyseemtodealwithtechnology.Thefirstexampleofthis?Moore’sLaw.”

“Thesetechnologicaldoublingsintherealmofscienceareactuallytheruleratherthantheexception.Forexample,thereisaMoore’sLawofproteomics,thefieldthatdealswithlarge‐scaledataandanalysisrelatedto proteins and their interactions within the cell. Here too there is a yearly doubling in technologicalcapabilitywhenitcomestounderstandingtheinteractionsofproteins(…)Sowhileexponentialgrowthisnotaself‐fulfillingproposition,thereisfeedback,whichleadstoasortoftechnologicalimperative:Asthereismore technological or scientific knowledge onwhich to grow, new technologies increase the speed atwhichtheygrow.

“ThesedoublingshavebeenoccurringinmanyareasoftechnologywellbeforeMooreformulatedhislaw.Asnotedearlier,thisregularityjustintherealmofcomputingpowerhasheldtrueasfarbackasthelatenineteenth and early twentieth centuries, before GordonMoorewas even born. So whileMoore gave anametosomethingthathadbeenhappening,thephenomenonhenameddidn’tactuallycreateit.Whyelsemight everything be adhering to these exponential curves and growing so rapidly? A likely answer isrelated to the idea of cumulative knowledge. Anything new—an idea, discovery, or technologicalbreakthrough—mustbebuiltuponwhatisknownalready.Thisisgenerallyhowtheworldworks.Scientificideasbuildupononeanothertoallowfornewscientificknowledgeandtechnologiesandarethebasisfornewbreakthroughs.Whenitcomestotechnologicalandscientificgrowth,wecanbootstrapwhatwehavelearnedbeforetowardthecreationofnewfacts.Wemustgainacertainamountofknowledgeinordertolearnsomethingnew(…)Weshouldimaginethatthemagnitudeoftechnologicalgrowthisproportionaltotheamountofknowledgethathascomebefore it.Themorepreexistingmethods, ideas,oranythingelsethat is essential for making a certain technology just a little bit better, the more potential for thattechnologytogrow.”

Arbesman, Samuel (2013): The half‐life of facts: Why everything we know has an expiration date,Current,NewYork.

38. Oninterpretingempiricalevidence

Fig.1nextrepresentsavariablegrowingat1‰(0.1%)peryear for3,000years;Fig.2,1‰growth for25,000 years. In both cases, 1 is the inial value. The samephenomenon (1‰annual growth) looks likedifferentdependingonthescalechosen: inFig.2 itappearsas ifsomethingextraordinaryhadhappened(an apparently ‘glacial’ growth suddently turns explosive), whereas Fig. 1 suggests that everything is‘businessasusual’.

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Fig1.1‰growthfor3,000years Fig2.1‰growthfor25,000years

39. Ecocideandneo‐liberalism

“Ecocide: Acts undertakenwith the intention of disrupting or destroying, inwhole or in part, a humanecosystem.Ecocide includes theuseofweaponsofmassdestruction,whethernuclear,bacteriological,orchemical;attemptstoprovokenaturaldisasterssuchasvolcanoes,earthquakes,orfloods;themilitaryuseofdefoliants;theuseofbombstoimpairsoilqualityortoenhancetheprospectofdisease;thebulldozingofforestsorcroplandsformilitarypurposes;theattempttomodifyweatherorclimateasahostileact;and,finally,theforcibleandpermanentremovalofhumansoranimalsfromtheirhabitualplaceofhabitationonalargescaletoexpeditethepursuitofmilitaryorotherobjectives.”

“Neo‐liberalism: A tenacious movement based on populist ideology, arguing for the reduction ofbureaucracy and state control. Neo‐liberalism advocates the need for a weak state, ‘free market’‐basedsolutions, and the separation of economic and political spheres. When confronted with environmentalissues, neo‐liberal discourse tends to stress that their seriousness is exaggerated, and it criticizesenvironmentalistsfordownplayingtheremarkableresilienceandrecoverypowerofnature.”

“Overshoot,ecological:Theconditionof apopulationwhen it exceeds its available carrying capacityormaximumpersistentlysupportableload.Thepopulationmaysurvivetemporarilybutwilleventuallycrashasitdepletesvitalnaturalcapital(resource)stocks.Apopulationinovershootmaypermanentlyimpairthelong‐termproductivepotentialofitshabitat,reducingthehabitat’sfuturecarryingcapacity.”

Broswimmer,Franz(2002):Ashorthistoryofmassextinctionofspecies.40. Derek Parfit’s (1984) repugnant conclusion on

populationethics

“Foranypossiblepopulationofatleasttenbillionpeople,allwith a very high quality of life, there must be some muchlargerimaginablepopulationwhoseexistence,ifotherthingsare equal, would be better even though its members havelivesthatarebarelyworthliving.”Parfit(1984,p.388)

Theconclusion issustainedbythefollowingargument.Theheightof thebarsonthechartrepresentthequalityof lifeand theirwidth theamountofpeople.CaseArepresentsa societywithahighstandardofliving.CaseA+comesfromAbyaddingthesameamountofpeopleasincaseAbutwithaslightlysmallerstandardofliving.ItappearsthatitismoredesirabletohavecaseA+thanA.Finally,caseBarisesfromA+bylettingallthepopulationinA+tohavethesamestandardofliving,slightlyabovetheaveragestandardfromA+.ItalsoappearsthatBismoredesirablethanA+.Grantedthis,therepugnantconclusionfollowsbyreplicatingthepreviouslineofreasoningstartingwithBratherthanA.

Parfit,Derek(1984):Reasonsandpersons,ClarendonPress,Oxford,UK.

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41. Machine|platform|crowd:trendsreshapingthebusinessworld

“InMarchof2015,strategistTomGoodwinpointedoutapattern.“Uber,theworld’slargesttaxicompany,ownsnovehicles,”hewrote.“Facebook,theworld’smostpopularmediaowner,createsnocontent.Alibaba,the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider,owns no real estate.” (…) The three examples we’ve just described—AlphaGo’s triumph over the besthumanGoplayers,thesuccessofnewcompanieslikeFacebookandAirbnbthathavenoneofthetraditionalassetsoftheirindustries,andGE’suseofanonlinecrowdtohelpitdesignandmarketaproductthatwaswellwithinitsexpertise—illustratethreegreattrendsthatarereshapingthebusinessworld.”

“Thefirsttrendconsistsoftherapidlyincreasingandexpandingcapabilitiesofmachines,asexemplifiedbyAlphaGo’s unexpected emergence as the world’s best Go player. The second is captured by Goodwin’sobservations about the recent appearance of large and influential young companies that bear littleresemblance to the established incumbents in their industries, yet are deeply disrupting them. Theseupstarts are platforms, and they are fearsome competitors. The third trend, epitomized by GE’sunconventionaldevelopmentprocessforitsOpalicemaker,istheemergenceofthecrowd,ourtermforthestartlinglylargeamountofhumanknowledge,expertise,andenthusiasmdistributedallovertheworldandnowavailable,andabletobefocused,online.”

McAfee,Andrew;ErikBrynjolfsson(2017):Machine,platform,crowd:Harnessingourdigitalfuture,W.W.Norton&Company,NewYork.

42. Themostimportantlessoninhistory?

“…perhaps themost important lessonwe can learn from history is that short‐term solutions and quickprofitscomeatagreatpriceinthelongrun.”

Fawcett,Bill(2013):Doomedtorepeat:Thelessonsofhistorywe'vefailedtolearn,WilliamMorrow.

43. NickBostrom’sfuturesofhumanity(inThielandMasters,2014)

Thiel,Peter;BlakeMasters (2014): Zero to one:Notes on startups, orhowtobuildthefuture,CrownBusiness,NewYork.

44. TimHardford’slessonsofthehistoryoftechnology

“One:don’tbedazzledbythefancystuff.”

“Two: humble inventions can change the world ifthey’recheapenough.”

“Three: always ask, ‘To use this invention well, whatelseneedstochange?’”

Hardford,Tim(2018):“Whatelseneedstochange?,”Opinionpiece,WTO2018TradeReport.

“Moore’slawstillworkingafternearlyfiftyyears”,Hey,Tony;GyuriPápay(2015):Thecomputinguniverse