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DINAMIKA PEREKONOMIAN DI ERA PEMBARUAN

TEKNOLOGI & PENGEMBANGAN TEMA RISET KE DEPAN

Dr. Solikin M. Juhro

Kepala Bank Indonesia Institute

Bank Indonesia

Samarinda, 24 Sepmtember 2018

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OUTLINE

Tantangan Global & Domestik Ekonomi Terkini

Peluang & Tantangan Jk Panjang: High Income Prospect vs Middle Income Trap

Pengembangan Tema Riset ke Depan

Riset “New Growth Model” untuk Ekonomi Indonesia

3Tantangan Global dan Domestik

Upaya mentranformasikan ekonomi Indonesia menjadi ekonomi berpendapatan tinggi dihadapkan pada berbagai tantangan baik siklikal maupun struktural…

GLOBAL

Pemulihan ekonomi

global yang tidak

merata disertai global liquidity rebalancing

Harga minyak dunia

meningkat, namun

harga komoditas

ekspor mulai menurun

Perbaikan

produktivitas ekonomi

global yang lambat

Kebijakan ekonomi

inward-looking dan de-

globalisasi

DOMESTIKModal dasar pembangunan ekonomi belum cukup

Pasar keuangan belum dalam

Inequality masih tinggi- Gini ratio 0,393 (Maret’17);

0,389 (Maret’18)

Peningkatan

ketidakpastian global a.l.

akibat normalisasi kebijakan

moneter AE yg tidak merata,

risiko trade war, geopolitik, &

spillover dari Turki & Argentina

Perkembangan pesat

Digital Economy

Defisit Transaksi berjalan2,21%PDB (Tw I’18); 3,04% PDB (Tw II’18)

Ruang fiskal relatif terbatas- Def APBN 2018; 2,19% PDB

Sumber pembiayaan pembangunan terbatas- Kredit 8,24% (Des’17); 11,8% (Agt’18)

Financial cycle belum pulih

Produktivitas dan daya saing rendah

Reformasi struktural terkendala tingginya kebutuhan impor- Impor non migas $35,5 bio (Tw I’18); $36.3 bio (Tw II’18)

CYCLICAL STRUKTURAL CYCLICAL STRUKTURAL

4Prospek Ekonomi Jk. Panjang: Paving the Way to High Income Country…

Untuk mencapai high income country sebelum 2033 saat demographic dividend habis, pertumbuhan ekonomi rata-rata perlu mencapai 8%.

• Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih moderate dengan rata-rata 5,6 -5,8 % akan membantu Indonesia menjadi high income country pada 2040-an.

• Pada tahun 2023, Indonesia diprakirakan telah memasuki upper middle income country (> USD 4,000).

5Peluang menjadi Ekonomi Berpendapatan Tinggi....

6Most Binding Constraints & Ancaman Middle Income Trap

7Most Binding Constraints & Ancaman Middle Income Trap

-

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

% of PDB

Brunei Darussalam China India Indonesia

Japan Malaysia Philippines Republic of Korea

Sumber: UNESCO

PERBANDINGAN DANA R&D BEBERAPA NEGARA • Anggaran yang dialokasikan Indonesia untuk kegiatan R&D relatif rendah dan sebagian besar anggaran Pemerintah

• Perlu peningkatan intensitas kegiatan research and development (R&D) untuk mendorong frugal innovation

Perlunya dukungan investasi & regulasi untuk mendorong inovasi...

8Katalog Tema Riset Bank Indonesia

A. STRENGTHENING THE POLICY MIX B. ACCELERATING STRUCTURAL REFORMS C. NAVIGATING DIGITAL ECONOMY

A.1 Global-econ landscape shift A.1.1 New normal & policy implication

A.1.2 Trade policy (protectionism vs.

liberalism, multi vs bilateralism)

A.1.3 Global spillover (policy decision,

geo-politics, market forces)

A.3 Macro-financial linkagesA.3.1 Characteristic of financial

intermediation

A.3.2 Nature & linkage b/w business &

financial cycles

A.3.3 Spatial, corporate, &HH analysis

A.4 Transmission mechanismA.4.1 Market imperfection & supply

side channels (lending, capital,

leverage, liquidity)

A.4.2 Risk taking channel

A.5 Post-GFC policy CB frameworkA.5.1 Optimal policy design

A.5.2 Potential of international policy

coordination

B.1 Macroeconomic fundamentalB.1.1 Economic Development and Supply-side

economy: productivity, labor, poverty, and

competitiveness

B.1.2 Fiscal space and fiscal reform

B.1.3 Financial deepening & market structures

B.1.4 Regional and sectoral analysis

B.3 Frontier issues of economic

developmentB.3.1 Financial integration & market

behavior

B.3.2 Islamic economic & finance

B.3.3 Institutional development &

leadership

C.1 Digital innovation & impactsC.1.1 Digital innovation & its macro

impacts (growth, employment,

inequality)

C.1.2 Digital innovation & its monetary-

financial stability impacts

C.2 Payment system platform and

New financial servicesC.2.1 E-Commerce, CB Payment System

C.2.2 Financial Technology

B.2 New growth modelB.2.1 Demographic transition & growth

potential

B.2.2 Innovation & productivity as main

drivers of growth

A.2 Macroeconomic dynamicsA.2.1 Determinants of inflation &

technological change

A.2.2 Determinants of exchange rate

and capital flows in the post GFC

A.2.3 Interest rate dynamics and natural

rate C.3 Central bank role & policy

strategyC.3.1 Crypto-currencies: issues,

challenges & policies

C.3.2 CBDC: policy perspectives &

framework

A.6 General central bank practices

Note: until now there are more than 511 research topics in the

form of Working Paper, Occasional Paper, Journal;

national and international level.

C.4 Cross border payment issues

“MAINTAINING STABILITY, STRENGTHENING MOMENTUM OF

GROWTH AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTIES”

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CURRENT STATE: Domestic Economic Challenges

a. Moderate performance in the mid of 2008/09 global financial crisis recovery process:• GDP growth 5.02%• Inflation 3.61%• CAD -1.7%• SI Gap -2.43%• Gini Ratio 0.39• Unemployment 5.50%

b. Structural weaknesses:• BOP constrained growth• Industrial capacity• Financing capacity

c. Middle Income Trap (MIT) threat • GNI/cap USD 11220**• Need 7% of growth in 2040

END STATE:Sustainable

Growth

A NEW GROWTH MODEL (PROPOSED)

Most Binding ConstraintsHuman capital, infrastructure, investment climate, & lack of innovation

ModalitiesNatural resources, demographic dividend, middle class, rich culture & values, structural macro policies

Key Principles1. Strengthening existing

potential sectors 2. Generating new

sources of growth3. Interlocking supply &

demand side• addressing most-

binding constraints• optimizing domestic

endowments

Growth Theory & Paradigm1. Endogenous growth theory: role of human +

physical capital & technology (R&D)2. From knowledge-based to creative economy3. Growth strategy: DD-driven vs SS-driven

Megatrend & Challenges in VUCA World1. Shift in global econ landscape (new norm)2. Climate change & resource scarcity3. Geopolitical issues4. Rise of technology

Key StrategiesI. Enhancing TFP

(productivity) in Endogenous Growth Model

II. Generating & Habituating New Sources of Growth:

• Broadening innovation (beyond R&R)

• Accentuating national culture & values

Key Programs/Policy • Optimizing D-side management • Strengthening coordination to

foster structural reform (supply side economy)

• Promoting innovative & creative economy

• Empowering small scale & sharia economy

(iii) Enhanced endogenous growth model: the role of culture & values?

Modelling Issues:i) Can the endogenous growth theory

explain Indonesia’s economic growth? ii) What are the contributions of human

capital, physical capital, and R&D ?

(iv) Spatial analysis of endoge-nous growth model: impact of regional disparities?

Leadership issues:i) Frugal innovation

& game changerii) Transformational

leadership’s roles

d. Era of Technological Progress• Disruptive innovation• Industry capabilities• Human capital

Research Questions

*) Juhro, 2018

Integrated Issues of New Growth Model for Indonesia

10Integrated Issues of New Growth Model for Indonesia

Knowledge-based Economy (KBE)

Investasi pada knowledge-based economy (KBE) memiliki peran penting dalam meningkatkan produktivitas dan efisiensi produksi (OECD, 2011; OECD, 2012; Corrado et al, 2012).

Creative Economy

Negara yang memiliki kebijakan ekonomi dan strategi bisnis berbasis sains-teknologi-inovasi umumnya memiliki nilai global competitivenessyang lebih tinggi dan juga pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih baik (Sener dan Saridogan, 2011).

Cultural Capital

Tiga aspek budaya (trust, respect dan self determination) memiliki korelasi positif dengan economic growth (Khan, 2010). Selain itu, achievement motivation juga menjadi salah satu komponen budaya yang memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (Granato et al,2006).

Potensi luas dalam pengembangan sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi baru: from KBE to Creative Economy...

ISUES: Kendala utama pada pemasaran dalam negeri, riset dan

pengembangan, edukasi, dan infrastruktur fisik, serta ketergantungan pada modal sendiri.

Rendahnya produktivitas dan daya saing, akses permodalan & pasar, kemitraan, penguasaan IT, riset dan pengembangan oleh UMKM

Perlunya pemanfaatan perkembangan digital terutama utk mendukung UMKM dan industri kreatif

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DINAMIKA PEREKONOMIAN DI ERA PEMBARUAN

TEKNOLOGI & PENGEMBANGAN TEMA RISET KE DEPAN

Dr. Solikin M. Juhro

Kepala Bank Indonesia Institute

Bank Indonesia

Samarinda, 24 Sepmtember 2018