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1NC Shell

Kerrys most recent trip places Pakistan relations at the core of foreign

policy at a crucial moment

CBS News 7/31[CBS News, "Drones, Afghanistan on the agenda as Kerry visits Pakistan," 7/31,http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57596381/drones-afghanistan-on-the-agenda-as-kerry-visits-pakistan/]A new set of players but the same lingering issues are confronting John Kerry on his first visit to

Pakistan as U.S. secretary of state: the fight against extremism, American drone

attacks inside the country and the war in Afghanistan. The Obama administration hasn't sent

its top diplomat to Pakistan since 2011, and Kerry's trip is a chance for the former

senator to get to know the newly elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who came to power in Pakistan's first

transition between civilian governments. Kerry arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday evening, and planned

meetings Thursday with civilian and military leaders, including Sharif. Senior administration officials traveling with Kerry told

reporters that while relations with Pakistan have grown touchy in recent years, there is the prospect of resetting those

ties with Sharif's government and working together on major issues -

counterterrorism, energy, regional stability, economic reforms, trade and

investment . The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to publicly discuss Kerry's agenda. The prisonbreak this week that freed hundreds of inmates raises serious questions about Pakistan's ability to battle an insurgency that has raged for years and

killed tens of thousands. "The U.S.-Pakistan relationship is badly in disrepair. It has been for some time, and thePakistanis don't seem to be in any hurry to fix it," said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution who has served as a senior adviser to the

past four U.S. presidents. Relations took a hit after the U.S. raid in 2011 that killed Osama bin Laden in his

compound in Abbotabad, Pakistan. Pakistanis felt the raid violated their country's sovereignty.While the U.S. is seeking quick responses to its concerns, Sharif is moving slowly, Riedel said, noting that the prime minister has yet to name an

ambassador to the United States. Suspected Islamic militants killed at least 160 people during the new government's first month in office. Sharif's

government has not articulated an alternate strategy. The U.S. also wants Pakistan to pressure leaders of the Afghan Taliban to negotiate with Afghan

President Hamid Karzai's government, renounce violence and sever ties with al-Qaida. Some Pakistani military and intelligence leaders see the U.S.

troops leaving Afghanistan, know the American public and U.S. Congress want out of the war, and would be OK with seeing the Taliban retake control

of Afghanistan, Riedel said. Pakistani officials will give "lip service" to the idea of reconciliation with the Taliban, he said, but will refrain from acting,

which will allow the insurgents to remain strong in southern and eastern Afghanistan. Adding to Kerry's problems is therecent collapse of U.S.-Taliban talks before they began at the insurgent group's political office in Doha, Qatar, and

Karzai's decision to suspend talks with the U.S. over a bilateral security agreement.Without such a deal, the U.S. will not be able to keep troops in Afghanistan after the U.S.-led NATO combat mission ends at the close of 2014. Kerry

planned to for better relations between Islamabad and Kabul. Karzai has announced his intent to visit Pakistan soon, but previous bilateral meetings

have yielded little. Kerry has a long history of dealing with Pakistan. As chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign

Relations Committee, Kerry was a main sponsor of a 2010 law that boosted U.S. assistance to

Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year until 2014. The Obama administration enlisted Kerry to help

arrange the release of a CIA contractor who was arrested in Pakistan after killing two men in 2011.Officials in neighboring Afghanistan are demanding that Pakistan dismantle extremists' havens inside Pakistan and push the Taliban to join the peace

process. Both the U.S. and Afghanistan say that if attacks are allowed to continue, the region will never become stability. Pakistani officials say they do

not control the Taliban, but Karzai's government isn't convinced. Drone strikes are another point of contention. Washington says it needs to attack

dangerous militants with drones because Pakistan's government refuses to engage them militarily. Pakistan contends the drone

strikes are a fresh violation of its sovereignty, and they have increased widespread anti-

American sentiment in the country. The United States has reduced the number of

drone attacks against militants in Pakistan and limited strikes to top targets. These moves appear to have

appeased Pakistan's generals for now, U.S. officials said. But some officials worry about pushback from the new civilianofficials, including Sharif, who wants the attacks ended. There have been 16 drone strikes in Pakistan this year, compared with a peak of 122 in 2010, 73

in 2011 and 48 in 2012, according to the New America Foundation, a U.S.-based think tank. While the number has fallen, it's unclear whether the

strikes were curtailed only in deference to Pakistan or because there are top targets left, said Jonah Blank, senior international policy analyst at the

RAND Corp., a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank.


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Diplomatic capital is finite---its a zero-sum game

Anderson and Grewell 2K (Terry L., Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center, J. Bishop,former research associate for PERC. He is a graduate of Stanford University, the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies,

and Northwestern Law School, The Greening of Foreign Policy, PERC Policy Series: PS-20, December 2000,

http://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf)Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Foreign policy is a bag of goods

that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down,lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.

Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on

international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. As countries

must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena, they will stretch the

resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. As Schaefer (2000, 46) writes,

Because diplomatic currency is finite . . . it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts onissues of paramount importance to the nation. Traditionally, these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key

geographic regions, supporting our allies, securing vital resources, and ensuring access to foreign economies.

Focus on U.S.-Pakistani dialogue is key to solving the energy crisis,

which has hampered Pakistans economy and fueled domesticinstability

Bhutta 13[Zafar Bhutta, A reporter on the Business Desk at The Express Tribune who is based in Islamabad, "Energy crisis:Civil nuclear deal back on Pakistan, US agenda," The Express Tribune, 8/2, http://tribune.com.pk/story/585436/energy-crisis-civil-

nuclear-deal-back-on-pakistan-us-agenda/]ISLAMABAD: Signalling a willingness to break the nuclear cooperation deadlock, Water and Power Minister for Khawaja Asif said on

Thursday that visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry had suggested that Pakistan and the US

consider cooperation in civil nuclear technology to meet Islamabads energy needs. We

have informed the visiting secretary of state that the crippling energy crisis is a bigger threat than

the war on terror. Hydel and nuclear energy are on our priority list and we can consider a civil nuclear

deal like India, Asif told a joint press conference with Kerry after holding talks on energy cooperation. Providing details of his

discussions with Kerry, Asif said that the US government asked for possible areas where energycooperation would be possible, including nuclear energy. He added that while the government wasseeking cooperation in wind, solar, hydel and nuclear energy sectors, the government would hold further detailed discussions on the

issue of nuclear cooperation in follow-up meetings. Referencing the civil nuclear energy deal with India, Asif

said that with the energy crisis destroying economic output and fuelling instability ,

the US should consider giving similar technology to Pakistan. The whole world is focusing on thewar on terror, which is a local issue for Pakistan, while our biggest threat is the energy crisis which is causing a loss of Rs1,000 billion

each year, said Asif. He said overcoming load-shedding would lead to accelerated economic growth, employment opportunities and

would reduce terrorism in the country. Appreciating the efforts of USAID in improving the energy sector in the country, Asif said that

the government had also played its part by clearing the Rs500 billion circular debt, resulting in power production reaching 16,000

megawatts. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the importance of energy was critical

to the future of Pakistan . He added that USAID had provided technology toindentify accurate data of power supply, line losses and power theft. We underscore our vital relations with

Pakistan and emphasise the importance of energy is future of Pakistan, said Kerr y, adding thatthe US Congress had approved over $7 billion aid for Pakistan under Kerry Lugar Bill, which included support for the energy sector.

Kerry added that out of the total aid, the US had so far disbursed $3.5 billion, highlighting that the US government was

committed to providing energy to Pakistan. Change in power subsidy and efficiency in energy sector are

must for improvement in power system and I will go to Washington with increased number of energy
http://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdfhttp://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdfhttp://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf


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projects, said Kerry. Highlighting the wide range of economic initiatives being undertaken by the US through its aidprogram, Kerry said that his government was so far funding projects which will add 1,200 megawatts of electricity to the national

grid.

Pakistan instability leads to nuclear war and nuclear terrorism

Brooks 7 [Peter Brookes, Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, 7/2/2007 (Peter, BARACK'S BLUNDER INVADE A NUCLEARPOWER?http://www.nypost.com/seven/08022007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/baracks_blunder_opedcolumnists_peter_brookes.htm?pag

e=2)

The fall ofMusharraf's government might well lead to a takeover by pro-U.S. elements of the Pakistani military

- but other possible outcomes are extremely unpleasant, including the ascendance of Islamist factions. The

last thing we need is for Islamabad to fall to the extremists. That would exacerbate

the problem of those terrorist safe havens that Obama apparently thinks he could

invade. And it would also put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal into the wrong hands. That

could lead to a number of nightmarish scenarios - a nuclear war with India over

Kashmir, say, or the use of nuclear weapons by a terrorist group against any number of

targets, including the United States.


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Admittedly, Kerry has not always applied these lessons properly -- witness his regrettable support for the Bush administration's

disastrous invasion of Iraq. But elsewhere, as in his efforts to ease the archaic U.S. blockade on Cuba,

Kerry continues to promote engagement as the fundamental tool of foreign policy. In a2009 Tampa Bay Times op-ed, for example, Kerry relates how the success of the U.S. rapprochement with Vietnam helped shape his

advocacy for improved relations with Cuba, which he presented as a defense of U.S. interests and democratic values. "For 47 years,"

he wrote, "our embargo in the name of democracy has produced no democracy at all. Too often, our rhetoric and policies have

actually furnished the Castro regime with an all-purpose excuse to draw attention away from its many shortcomings." This evidence

has informed the future secretary of state's position against the ban on travel to Cuba for U.S. citizens. Based on the experience oftourists from other countries and the return of Cuban-Americans who "have already had a significant impact on increasing the flow

of information and hard currency to ordinary Cubans," Kerry understands that unrestricted U.S. travel to Cuba would be "a catalyst

for change." The senator also placed a temporary freeze in 2010 on the poorly designed USAID Cuba programs, which have led to

the imprisonment of Alan Gross, an agency subcontractor. According to an article by R.M. Schneiderman in Foreign Affairs, the

revision of the Bush administration-designed USAID programs advanced the possibility

of Alan Gross's release as a Cuban humanitarian act. Senator Kerry participated in a

effort to negotiate a diplomatic solution. With State Department's approval, Kerry met Bruno Rodriguez,Cuba's ministry of foreign affairs at the residence of the Cuban Ambassador to the United Nations in New York. Unfortunately

Senator Robert Menendez , a Cuban-American, stepped in and spoiled the possibility of a negotiated solution. The senator from New

Jersey demanded that the full 20 million dollars be spent and the provocative programs be restored. Under the pressure of a

delicate balance of forces in the Senate, The White House conceded. Schneiderman quoted Fulton Armstrong, a member of Senator

Kerry's staff who was involved in the dialogue with Cuban diplomats. "Poor Alan Gross -- Armstrong wrote -- the Cuban-American

lobby had won." Kerry, who has visited Vietnam post-reconciliation, knows that a USAID program there helped to multiply Internetconnectivity rates in the country. The USAID program in Vietnam is jointly implemented with the Japanese development agency and

with the support of the local government, unlike the Helms-Burton law, which geared USAID programs in Cuba toward regime

change and was repudiated in the UN for its unilateralism. The USAID program in Vietnam encourages development, which is what

USAID was created for, not efforts to overthrow Hanoi's government. The premise is that a population more affluent, better

educated, and more connected will demand more democratic practices. According to Kerry, the United States will never stop

supporting human rights in Cuba, simply because they are fundamental values of American society. After all, the United States has

continued pushing for civil and political liberties in Vietnam since ending its embargo. Washington does so not because it opposes

Hanoi's leaders or to impose a regime change, but as part of a rational strategy of promoting a peaceful evolution to a more open

Vietnamese political system. Washington wants stable relationships with the whole Vietnamese nation, not only with the

government. Peoples of the world, no matter how suspicious of U.S. motives they may be, appreciate human rights promotion

within the framework of international law. President Obama's designation of John Kerry is also

consistent with the political changes that have occurred in the Cuban-American

community, expressed by the elevated Cuban diaspora vote for Democrats in the last election. Like Kerry, and as then-

Senate candidate Obama stated in 2004, most Cuban-Americans believe that the embargo has failedand that it is time to influence the processes of economic reform and political liberalization that began in Cuba after the retirementof Fidel Castro. Once public opinion turned against the war in Vietnam, the political

leadership in the U.S. found it had no choice but to follow suit. Kerry is better

positioned than anyone to be a leader and see that point of departure when it

comes to U.S. policy and Cuba.


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2NC UQ Now is Key

Sharifs recent election and Kerrys recent appointment suggest both

sides will work together

Reuters 8/2[Reuters, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'very soon," 8/2]A new government in Pakistan and a new secretary of state in Washington haveincreased hopes the two sides can settle their grievances - something both hope to

gain from, with Pakistan's economy badly needing support and the United States

aiming to withdraw the bulk of its troops from Afghanistan next year.

Both Kerry as well as Sharif want cooperation to happen---

determination is key

Reuters 8/2[Reuters, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'very soon," 8/2]Speaking after talks with Sharifin Islamabad, Kerry - who as a senator sponsored legislation to provide $7 billion in

assistance to Pakistan over 5 years - said he had invited Sharif to visit the United States, Pakistan's biggest donor, for talks with

President Barack Obama. "What was important today was that there was a determination ... tomove this relationship to the full partnership that it ought to be, and to find the ways

to deal with individual issues that have been irritants over the course of the past

years," he said. "And I believe that the Prime Minister is serious about doing that. And I know that President

Obama is also."

Kerrys history with Pakistan as well as Pakistans recent democratic

transition suggest a shift from former hostilities

Riechmann 8/1[Deb Riechmann, AP reporter and writer, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'verysoon," 8/1]

While this is Kerry's first visit to Islamabad as secretary of state, he has a long history of

dealing with Pakistan as former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Sharif described him

as "a wonderful friend," and Kerry said, "I have had the pleasure of visiting (Sharif's)

home and having a number of meals with him." Before heading into a closed-door

meeting, Sharif asked Kerry about his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who was hospitalized after a

seizure last month. "She's doing better," Kerry said. Sharif came to power in an

election that marked the first time in Pakistan that a civilian government completed

its full five-year term and transferred power in democratic elections. The country has a history

of civilian leaders being overthrown in military coups. "This is a historic transition that just took place,"Kerry told U.S. Embassy employees earlier. "Nobody should diminish it."


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2NC UQ Its Working

Following talks, progress has been made---Kerrys recent remarks on

drone strikes prove

Riechmann 8/1[Deb Riechmann, AP reporter and writer, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'verysoon," 8/1]US Secretary of State John Kerry suggested Thursday that US drone strikes targeting Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives

in Pakistan could end "very soon" as the threat of militancy recedes. It is the first time that such a

senior US official has indicated that there could be a definitive end to the programme,which the CIA has in the past called an effective counter-terrorism weapon. The drone strikes target Islamist militants in Pakistan's

semi-autonomous northwestern tribal belt, where Washington says Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives pose a threat to Afghanistan

and the West. Kerry made the remarks in an interview with Pakistan state TV following a day of talks

with the newly elected government in Islamabad, which demands that the drone

strikes cease. Asked by the interviewer whether Islamabad could expect an end to the strikes, Kerry said: "I think the programwill end as we have eliminated most of the threat and continue to eliminate it." Asked if a timeline was envisaged for ending the

strikes, Kerry replied: "Well, I do. And I think the (US) president has a very real timeline and we

hope it's going to be very, very soon .


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2NC Impact Energy Key

Energy is crucial to Pakistan

Price 7/24[Gareth Price, "State Weakness and Internal Instability in Pakistan," ISN, 7/24, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=165903]Stimulating economic growth, reducing inflation and a mass job creation program would relieve some of the pressure, but

Pakistans energy shortages have crippled local industries. Providing energy security in

Pakistan is a critical issue that needs to be addressed urgently. This will require

Pakistan to engage its allies, such as China, to invest in major power projects.

Energy is key to Pakistani stability---current status quo factors

Kugelman 13[Michael Kugelman, Michael Kugelman is senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at theWoodrow Wilson Center, where he is responsible for research, programming, and publications on South and Southeast Asia. His

most recent work has focused on Pakistan's 2013 elections, India-Pakistan relations, U.S.-Pakistan relations, and security challenges

in India. He received his B.A. from American University's School of International Service, "Pakistans Energy Crisis: From Conundrum

to Catastrophe?," NBR, 3/13, http://www.nbr.org/research/activity.aspx?id=323#.Uf8nrBaLiZY]

With no end in sight, the implications of Pakistans energy crisis are stark and go well beyond

threats to the countrys economic well-being and stability. Pakistan is currently in themidst of two major societal shifts that could worsen the effects of its energy problems

in the years ahead. One is urbanization. While today the majority of Pakistans population is rural, estimates

suggest that at least 50% could be concentrated in urban areas by the 2020s. Demand for electricity is

particularly high in cities, because urban-area industries and homes tend to be more dependent than those in the

hinterland on grid-connected energy sources. With droves of Pakistanis entering cities and becoming

dependent on grids, pressures on supply will deepen exponentially. Pakistans other

notable societal shift that could worsen the energy crisis is the devolution of

governance from the federal level to the provincial and local levels. Thanks to the 18th constitutionalamendment, which President Asif Ali Zardari signed in 2010, federal ministerial responsibilities and resources are being passed down

to local authorities and agencies. This means that many new energy-related functions and duties are being foisted upon provincial

and district governments, which suffer from even more capacity constraints, inefficiencies, and financial troubles than their federalcounterpart. Local governments will likely inherit the ineffective policies of the federal

governmentas well. Given the central governments inability to address the countrys energy crisis, there is even less

reason to expect that short-handed local-level authorities are up to the task. How long can

Pakistan ride out this storm? Today, many Pakistanis are getting by through their own

resourcefulness, as they do on so many occasions when their government fails to

provide basic services. This winter, some residents have coped with the nations worst gas shortage on record byfashioning homemade pumps from old refrigerators and sucking gas out of distribution systems. Others have done their cooking

only when gas stations are closedthe only time they receive any pressure. Time is running out , however.

Pakistan faces rapidly dwindling foreign reserves and a plunging currency that late last

year fell to a record low, and double-digit inflation is projected to hit this year. There

is the very real fear that Pakistan could soon find itself unable to afford to address its

energy crisismeaning that even stopgap, short-term measures to expand power

generation could be eliminated. Such a scenario would presumably increase the

frequency and violence of public protests and threaten the states ability to maintain

order. The consequences could be catastrophic for the countrys economy and

stability.


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