Digitalisation and the Future of Work (Part 2) - October 2016 Meeting of the OECD Global...
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THE FUTURE OF WORK Meeting of the OECD Global Parliamentary Network Paris, 12 October 2016 Paolo Falco Labour Market Economist Employment Analysis and Policy Division Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
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Transcript of Digitalisation and the Future of Work (Part 2) - October 2016 Meeting of the OECD Global...
THE FUTURE OF WORK
Meeting of the OECD Global Parliamentary Network Paris, 12 October 2016
Paolo FalcoLabour Market EconomistEmployment Analysis and Policy DivisionDirectorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Megatrends shaping the future of work
Changing:
What jobs will be created
How, where and by whom they are carried out
Technology
Digitalisation
GlobalisationEnvironmental change
Ageing Societies
2
3
Are we facing mass unemployment?
Jobs with high and medium potential for automationPercentage of jobs with 70 % and between 50 % et 70 % of substitutable tasks
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)
SVKCZE ITA
DEUAUT
POLNLD
ENG / NIR
Averag
eUSA
ESPNOR
DNKCAN IRL
SWEFRA
JPN
BEL (Fl) FIN EST
KOR05
101520253035404550
Automatable
4
Are we facing mass unemployment?
Jobs with high and medium potential for automationPercentage of jobs with 70 % and between 50 % et 70 % of substitutable tasks
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)
SVKCZE ITA
DEUAUT
POLNLD
ENG / NIR
Averag
eUSA
ESPNOR
DNKCAN IRL
SWEFRA
JPN
BEL (Fl) FIN EST
KOR05
101520253035404550
Significant change in tasks AutomatableTasks that lower risk of automation:• Presenting• Influencing• Reading books and/or professional
publications• Writing articles• Using programming language• Training others
Tasks that increase risk of automation:• Exchanging information• Selling• Using fingers or handsSource: Arntz et al (2016), Table 3.
Polarisation in skill demands
Job polarisation in major OECD economies, 2002-14Percentage points changes in employment shares by occupation
Source: OECD estimates based on EU-LFS, Japanese Labour Force Survey, BLS Current Population Survey.
5
United StatesEuropean Union Japan
7.2
-0.7
-9.5
3.0
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
High Medium -non
routine
Medium -routine
Low
p.p
5.43.4
-8.9
0.1
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
High Medium -non
routine
Medium -routine
Low
p.p
0.92.7
-4.5
1.0
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
High Medium -non
routine
Medium -routine
Low
p.p
Greater income, efficiency and flexibility?
The platform economy is coming near you!
Less social protection and greater precarity?
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Greater risk for individuals who
manage their jobs, protection and training?
The future of work requires a change to how we think about skills
ICT, problem-solving, socio-
emotional skills
New skill sets for new occupations and tasks
Decision-making skills
New forms of employment
Lifelong learning,
Skills recognition,
WBL, adaptability
Training policies for multiple careers
7
Do workers have the skills for the new jobs?
Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.
Problem-solving skills in Technology-Rich EnvironmentsPercentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64)
Few high-skilled workers
Many workers lacking ICT skills
8
PO
L
IRL
SV
K
ES
T
KO
R
US
A
AU
T
CZE
Ave
rage
BE
L (F
l)
JPN
EN
G /
NIR
DE
U
CA
N
AU
S
DN
K
NO
R
NLD FIN
SW
E
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
(57) (57) (62) (56) (64) (58) (54) (54) (56) (56) (48) (59) (56) (55) (46) (55) (50) (52) (49) (50)
Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3
No ICT skills or only basic skills to carry out simple tasks
More advanced ICT and cognit-ive skills to evaluate problems
and solutions
Percent of working population participating in job-related education and training during the last year by level of proficiency in literacy
Job-related training – most in need get the least
United States
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Canada Australia Estonia Japan Germany Spain Italy0
20
40
60
80
Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
9Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.
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Re-thinking social protection for non-standard work arrangements
Old age, invalidity Health Accidents Unemployment FamilyAustraliaCanadaFranceGermanyItalyJapanKoreaMexicoTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
No benefitOptional enrolmentDifferent rules from standard workersSame rules as the general scheme
Benefit rules for the self-employed are different from those of standard workers
Source: OECD (2016c), Report on Pension Systems for the Self-Employed in OECD and EU Countries.
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Contact: [email protected]
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Website: www.oecd.org/els/socialNewsletter: www.oecd.org/els/newsletter
Thank you
