Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006 The Digital...

Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006

The Digital Opportunity Index (DOI)

Michael MingesSenior Market Analyst

Telecommunications Management Group, Inc.


Contents

• History

• What is digital opportunity?

• ICT Indexes: Problems & solutions

• About DOI

• Results

• DOI and wealth, etc.

• Extending DOI


Digital Opportunity Index

• “In cooperation with each country concerned, develop and launch a composite ICT Development (Digital Opportunity) Index.”— WSIS I, Geneva, Plan of Action, December 2003

• “The development of ICT indicators is important for measuring the digital divide. … We also note the launch of the … Digital Opportunity Index, which will build upon the common set of core ICT indicators as they were defined within the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development.”—WSIS II, Tunis, Agenda for the Information Society, November 2005


What is digital opportunity?

• The whole population having easy access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) at affordable prices;

• All homes equipped with ICT devices;

• All citizens having mobile ICT devices; and

• Everyone using broadband.


Problems with existing indexes

• Subjective• Exclusive • Poor choice of

indicators• Confusing

methodology• Limited analysis over

time

http://www.cepal.org/cgi-bin/getProd.asp?xml=/socinfo/noticias/documentosdetrabajo/8/24228/P24228.xml&xsl=/socinfo/tpl-i/p38f.xsl&base=/socinfo/tpl-i/top-bottom.xsl


DOI advantages

• Objective - Only statistical indicators

• Inclusive – 180 economies covered

• Standard indicators - “Partnership” core ICT indicators

• Straightforward methodology - UNDP HDI oriented, favorable to developing countries

• Time series – 2000-2005


DOI structure

Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony

Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income

Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income

Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone

Proportion of households with a computer

Proportion of households with Internet access at home

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Proportion of individuals that used the Internet

Ratio of fixed broadband subscribers to total Internet subscribers

Ratio of mobile broadband subscribers to total mobile subscribers

Infrastructure

Opportunity

DIG

ITA

LO

PP

OR

TU

NIT

YIN

DE

X

Utilization

Indicators are averaged within categories, categories are averaged to get DOI.

Digital Opportunity Index (DOI), Colombia, 2004 Mobile coverage (% population) 80

Opportunity

(0.87)

Internet tariffs (% GNI per inhabitant) 12.3

Mobile tariffs (% GNI per inhabitant) 5.5

Households with fixed lines (%) 51.0

13.0 Infrastructure (0.24)

Households with computers (%)

Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants 47.5 0.40

Households with Internet access (%) 8.0

0.4Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Internet users (% population) 9.8Utilization

(0.10)Broadband subscribers / Total Internet subscribers 19.0

3G mobile subscribers / Total mobile subscribers 0

Note: The categories are the averages of the value of each indicator; the DOI is the average of the values of the three categories.


Only fixedOnly mobile

Both mobile &

fixed

Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony

Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita

income

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100

inhabitants

(Mobile) Internet subscribers per 100

inhabitantsProportion of individuals

with Internet-enabled phone

Ratio of Broadband mobile subscribers to

mobile subscribers

Proportion of individuals that used the Internet

Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per

capita income

Proportion of households with a fixed line

telephone

Proportion of households with a computer

Proportion of households with Internet access at

home

Ratio of Broadband Internet subscribers to

Internet subscribers

Individual-mobile Household-fixed


Mobile coverage% population covered by mobile signal

450 MHz

2100 MHz

950 MHz

12 km

27 km

49 km

Source: GrameenPhone, International 450 Association.


TariffsInternet & mobile baskets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1998 2000 2002 2004

Swisscom

Orange

Sunrise

minutes To Fixed

On-net

Off-net

TOTAL

Peak 6.38 5.32 2.39 14.1

Off-peak

5.88 4.90 2.21 12.0

Weekend

4.54 3.78 1.70 10.0

Calls 25

SMS 30

OECD prepaid, monthly basket


Household ICTs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Fixed lineComputerInternet

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997

1999

2001

2003

Iceland

Singapore

Germany

Canada

Japan

Slovenia

% of households with, 2005:

Sou

rce

: H

agst

ofa

Ísla

nds

.

% of households with Internet access:


Mobile Internet

100.0%

95.5%

73.2%

13.5%

12.2%

0.4%

0.2%

Receivingcalls

Makingcalls

SMS

MMS

Downloadtones, etc.

NavigateInternet

E-mail 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

WAP subscribers (000s)% Internet subscribers% Mobile subscribers

% of mobile users, 2005

Sou

rce

: A

NR

T.

Sou

rce: O

SIP

TE

L.


Broadband

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan

-04

Ma

r-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Jul-

04

Se

p-0

4

No

v-0

4

Jan

-05 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1G

2G

2.5G

3G

Permanent Internet connections as % of all subscriptions

Sou

rce

: N

atio

nal S

tatis

tics.

Mobile subscribers, 000s

Sou

rce: A

dapted from S

KT

, KT

F, LG

T.

3G as % of total

The DOI for Colombia

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2000 2002 2004

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Ko

rea

Ch

ileA

rge

ntin

aM

exi

coU

rug

ua

yB

razi

lC

ost

a R

ica

Ve

ne

zue

laP

eru

Pa

na

ma

Co

lom

bia

El S

alv

.E

cua

do

rG

ua

tem

ala

Bo

livia

Pa

rag

ua

yH

on

du

ras

Nic

ara

gu

a

Colombia, DOI DOI, 2004

Fuente: CRT, DANE y estimaciones (Colombia), UIT (otros países).


DOI, 2005

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Opportunity Infrastructure Utilization World Average


RankingsTop & bottom ten Why Korea is number 1

Indicator World rank

Mobile coverage 1 (with 38 countries)

Mobile affordability 1 (with 33 countries)

Internet affordability 1 (with 27 countries)

Household fixed lines 18

Household PC 4

Household Internet 3

Mobile density 36

Mobile Internet density 2

Internet user density 2

Broadband ratio 1

3G ratio 1

1 KOR

2 JPN

3 DNK

4 ISL

5 HKG

6 SWE

7 GBR

8 NOR

9 NLD

10 TWN

171 SLB

172 SLE

173 ETH

174 MWI

175 RWA

176 MMR

177 GNB

178 ERI

179 NER

180 TCD


Mobile DOI

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

Cana

da

Icel

and

Unite

d St

ates

Switz

erla

nd

Hong

Kon

g

Japa

n

Kore

a (R

ep.)

Lith

uani

a

Bahr

ain

Braz

il

Czec

h Re

publ

ic

Philip

pine

s

Sout

h Af

rica

Bang

lade

sh

Cam

bodi

a

Burk

ina

Faso

Keny

a

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Fixed DOIMobile DOIMobile Contribution to DOI


DOI & GDP2005

R2 = 0.8753

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

DO

I

GDP per capita, US$


DOI & human Development

R2 = 0.8457

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Human Development Index, 2005

Dig

ital

Op

po

rtu

nit

y In

dex

, 200

4


DOI & regulation

R2 = 0.6394-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

200 250 300 350 400

Sou

rce: Jon

es Day / E

CT

A, 200

4 Regulato

ry Telecom

mun

icatio

ns S

corecard, http://w

ww

.jonesday.com

/pubs/pubs_detail.aspx?pubID

=S

1187

Ch

ang

e in

DO

I ran

k, 2

002-

2004

Regulatory Scorecard Results, 2003


Other DOI permutations

• Gender (Czech Republic)

• Within a country (Brazil)


Extending DOI

Denmark

Sweden (-1)

UK (+1)

Netherlands

Germany (-4)Belgium

Spain (-1)

Italy (+1)

Ireland (+4)

DOI e-business

Education Regulation

Knowledge(e.g., UNDP Education sub index)

Regulatory(e.g., EU Regulatory Scorecard)

Business(e.g., EC The e-business

readiness composite indicator)

DOI

+

+

+


Thank you

[email protected]

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