Digital Coexistence…. …the impact of new tech opportunities! Peter Cochrane.
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Transcript of Digital Coexistence…. …the impact of new tech opportunities! Peter Cochrane.
Digital Coexistence….…the impact of new tech opportunities!
Peter Cochrane
We’re in the midst of continuous transformation….
Technology changes faster than usOld rules and systems no longer workHierarchies no longer dominateOrganizations are more distributed and globalSmall companies dominateLarge companies aggregate & integratePeople are more mobile & demandingBeing TechAble is no longer an optionEverything is now non-linear & chaotic
A future of man, woman & machine...
1940 20101950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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1000xVacuum tubes Transistors
Integrated circuitsMicro-processors
Relays
UNIVAC ScalarENIAC
IBM 704
Stretch
LARC
CDC1604
CDC 6600
CDC 7600
ILLIAC IVCray -2
Cray C-90
Cray-1Cray X-MP
Cray Y-MP
CM-2Delta
CM-5Teraflop
Human Brain
100,000Teraflopdesktop
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Vector
Multiprocessors
Massively parallel
FLOPS IBM BlueGene
>240 Machines>1TFlop
Faster & faster wealth generation
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
New
Com
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US$Bn
PCInternet
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Mobile
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Prediction 1
2015
Super iPod
Every music track ever recorded on a single device in your shirt pocket…
…& 10 years later every movie…
2TByteServer 3
GHz
LAN100
Mbit/s
Clock
My Office & Home 2004
Optical Fibre
2Mbit/s
Local
Long
Lines
2.4/10Gb/s
Global
Net
Switch ∞ Gb/s
nNetwork
Local
Switch
Router
WiFi802.11
3TByteServer 3
GHz
LAN100
Mbit/s
Clock
My Office & Home 2005
Long
Lines
2.4/10Gb/s
Global
Net
Switch ∞ Gb/s
nNetwork
Free VOIP/WiFi802.11
Local
Switch
RouterOptical Fibres
1x2Mbit/s
1x10Mbit/s
Local
100TByteServer
15GHz
LAN 10Gbit/sClock
My Office & Home 2010
1Gbit/s
Extended
Fibre/Wireless
Local
Loop
Global
Net
Access ∞ Gb/s
nNetwork
Free VO(VID)IP/WiFi >100Mbit/s
0.1
1
10
100
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Data RateMbit/s
Individual BW demand
MP3 Music Downloads
Movie Downloads
Digital Camera Back Up
Video + VOIP
Games
3D Games
eMailWeb Browsing
Heath & Care Services
Security Nets
Domestic Server Back Up
Consumer Net Usage Trends
Frequency of use
9600 14.4 k 56 k 2M 10M Ethernet
ContinuousSecondsMinutes
Hourly
Daily
WeeklyBit Rate
Business
TechnologyPeople
HotSpot
Where the action always is!
5 year future - all of the technology is in the lab now - we just have to look for it
10 year future - a lot of the technology is in the lab right now - but some isn’t
20 year future - we are more or less blind!
What we know…
•The future accurately
•What people will do with technology
•What society will do with technology
•How stupid organisations will be!
What we know… …no one can predict…
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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
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A commonly held view…more of the same… …but better!
watch
Phone
Game Console
GPS Device
Television
Walkie-Talkie
Rolodex
FM Radio
Camcorder
Camera
PDA
Pager
PortableMP3/Video
PC
What is All This Garbage?Let’s converge into one device
Or a nightmare offeature death…doing everythingbadly?
Mobile
s
Displays
Digital Home
Peripherals
Human Interface Devices
Convergence myth replaced by
connectivity!
How far have we come??
Honeywell DDP-5161969
PalmOne Treo2004
50 kb/s leased line 50 kb/s GPRS link
35 years
Personal Space
Bluetooth
UWB
RFID
LAN MAN WANPAN
City, Community
WMAN 802.16, 802.20,
WiMAX
Ad-hoc, Beam Forming
Cellular/ PCS /Satellites
Regions, International,
Fixed and Mobile
Cellular XG/Satellite
HSDPA
WCDMA
UMTS
WLAN 802.11X
WiFi
Campus (Office, Airport, Hotel,
Shop, Home
The dream….…seamless access!
3m 30m 3km Ubiquitous
Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning
IBM_User
Let's now spend the rest of our time discussing network convergence. Up to now, we have pretty much segmented our wireless implementations into 2 categories: WAN-based using cellular networks and WLAN-based using 802.11 type of networks. Both type of implementations were fairly different: WAN-based ones are very specifically tailored to the limited capabilities of the network and the devices, WLAN-based one are on the contrary taking the wired apps and PCs and just putting them into a WLAN laptop with minimal changes. There's an emerging set of wireless technologies called Metropolitant Area Networks that seems to have the ability to close the gap between the cellular and WLAN worlds and therefore bridge the gaps we currently have in our implementations
Appropriate technology… …a part of your toolkit
• Don’t use it/IT because it is fashionable!
• Use it/IT because it gives a good ROI
— Ignore it/IT at your peril!
— Watch the competition
—Watch other sectors
Business = Wealth Generation
$Science
Technology
Knowledge
Engineering
Products
Services
Education
Employment
Change
Markets
Sustainability
ROI
$T
Technology
People
Employment
Product
Market
Sustainability
Return On
nvestment nnovationdeas
Business Drivers
1960/70 1980/00
Monopoly Market
Me YouThe supplier The customer
It’s about…
Bar Code RFID
RFID will revolutionize every aspect of the supply chain - from raw materials to manufacture, logistics, supply & support.
In the field of healthcare RFID will save lives, increase efficiency and reduce costs.
A retail revolution - RFID + BlueTooth &WiFi in every EPOS
Cell Phone also becomes: a wallet, transaction centre, passport, ID and passport, insurance/medical record + locator and tracking device
Triangulation, GPS, RFID,EPOS, WiFi, BlueTooth, NanoGyros
On-Line Monitoring Anywhere Anytime Any Activity
Sporting
Working
Zzzzzzz...
Surrogate surgery
Dublin
Sheffield
MM, VR, Telepresence will change...
...the way service is delivered& education & training isprovided
Ford Escape HEV Ford Escape HEV
The destruction of the insurance industryby RFID + GPS +++?
Where are my things?
Who has them?
What are they doing?
Prediction 3
The data mining of medical records will see
the biggest health gains since the provision
of clean water and waste disposal!
If time = money......then so does position
Current GPS Applications
PowerTelecommunicationLaw EnforcementEmergency ServicesWeather ScientificConstructionCensusRecreationAsset Tracking
AviationMaritimeHighwayRailroadMass TransitCrime PreventionSurveyingAgricultureBankingDefence
GPS Alone ~100 - 10m….military ~1m
2005
GPS + GSM+ EPOS + MEMS ~1cm
2015
Prediction 4
Positioning systems will become as essentialas communication nets in the future economy
Change takes time…
Mobile phones > Fixed line = 12 yearsDigital Fax > Analogue Fax = 8 yearsColour TV > B&W TV = 11 yearsCD > Audio Tape = 9 yearsDVD > VHS Tape = 7 yearsDigital Nets > Analogue Nets = 15 yearsOptical Fibre > Copper + Microwave = 20 years
Society Companies Consumers Technologies
4020
101
Change
Time
Years
Prediction 5
Converting the ‘sea of bits’ gathered
by industry into useful information &
knowledge will bring about the biggest
change in industry since the steam engine!
USA Creative class 1900-1999
* Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class, Basic Books, 2002 (Figure 4.1, p. 73)
19911900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1999
6o
10
50
40
30
20
X X XX
XX
X
X
X
XXService Class
Creative Class
Working Class
SuperCreatives
Agriculture
Millions
Who will do all the work in future?
Partner Customer
CustomerSupplier
• The workforce will be more:– tech aware/capable– generationally diffused– culturally diverse– geographically dispersed– organizationally mobile
• Organizations will:– have a much smaller core staff– make extensive use of outsourcing– involve more partners– hire more temporary teams– have to be global
Prediction 6
The IT and security departments of big
companies will go the same way as the
typing pool for the same reasons!
One of the biggest opportunities left……risk mitigation in logistics…
Observation…
~45% of purchase price is… …down to transaction cost
A large slice of this is down to logistics
Standardisation
Loading & reloading ship:1980: 108 men X 5 days2000: 8 men X 1 day540 Man Days >>> 8 (-98.5%)
•Logistics is inherently non-linear
•Moving anything involves risk
•Risk cannot be removed - it can only be mitigated
•Things do go wrong!
>10,000 containersper yearpushed overboardin stormy weather…
…or lost atsea by somemechanism
Atoms
$$$$$$
No attempt has been made to simultaneously optimize the flow of goods and $$$…
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Stove pipe hell!
~ 20 Banks + 20 Insurers ++
RFID
Packs
Containers
Goods
Higher orders of complexity
to come!
In the next phase RFID + GPS +AI takes over….
…and > $2T may be saved!
A world of opportunity & risk….
Thank you,
cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net
