M. Malabayabas and Takashi Yamano

Diffusion of Swarna Sub1 seeds in Odisha and Uttar Pradesh,

India: Preliminary findings

(STRASA Socio-Economic Team)

1. Distribution of Swarna Sub1 in Eastern India 2. Methodology: Neighbor survey3. Preliminary findings of the Neighbor survey4. Research directions

Outline of the presentation

Phase II: Varietal tracking and Impact assessment

Assess technology transfer among farmers and its impact in adopting stress-tolerant rice

varieties on rice production

Sample areas in EUP

Sample areas in Odisha

Murali, Nelson, Thenkabail, and Singh, 2011

Stress-prone areas in South Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Uttar Pradesh Bihar West Bengal Odisha

State

Pe

rce

nta

ge

are

a (

%)

Submergence Drought

Estimates of submergence and drought prone areas in Eastern India

Murali, Nelson, Thenkabail, and Singh, 2011

Source: STRASA, 2012

Number of farmers distributed with Swarna Sub1 in Eastern India

Manzoor Dar, 2012

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f fa

rmer

s

Uttar Prradesh

Bihar

Odisha

West Bengal

Assam

Andhra Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh456 – 49,352

Odisha53 – 29,570

Percentage farmers distributed with Swarna Sub1 in from 2008-2011

Manzoor Dar, 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f fa

rmer

s

National Food Security Mission NGO's

Research Questions

Who uses the seeds?

How the seeds were

transferred?

Where are the seeds

Initial step: Investigate the farmer-to-farmer seed distribution through a neighbor survey among farmers who have adopted Swarna Sub1 in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha

Baseline survey April-June 2012

Post Planting survey

October 2012

Post harvest survey

April-July 2013

Definition of terms

Original user - farmers who received sseds from NGOs like Nand Educational Foundation for Rural Development (NEFORD) and Association for India’s Development (AID)

Neighbors (or villagers) - are NOT listed Original Users in the sample villages - lives in the same village of the OU - chosen randomly from Voter’s Registration list

Neighbor survey

Neighbor

Original user

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor user

Neighbor non-user

OU = 4Neighbor = 12

NGONFSM

Neighbor

Original user

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Original user

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Original user

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Neighbor

Voter’s registration list

Survey questionnaire which answers the following: • Household and farming characteristics• Knowledge about their neighbor

Computer software (EDI)• Computer assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) software

Global Positioning System (GPS)• spatial location of the adopters and non-adopters

Sample size of the study

State District

Number of

village

Sample size

Original user

Neighbor Neighbor user

All

Odisha 2 16 40 193 17 233

Uttar Pradesh 6 36 134 436 126 570

Total 8 52 174 629 143 803

Survey sites

Nel Garcia, GIS

Rice yield trends in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha (1971-2010)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Year

Yie

ld (

t/h

a)

UP Odisha India

Odisha (1.2-2.4t/ha)UP (1.2-3.2t/ha)

Key Results: Flood characteristics Characteristics Odisha Uttar Pradesh

Duration (days) 8 16

Timing September July- August

Crop stage Panicle initiation stage

Early tillering stage

Harvesting

Household affected

by flood

2008-2010 3 (1%) 60 (10%)

2011 231 (99%) 568 (99%)

Characteristics

Original user Neighbor

User Non-user

Male dominated

household

96-98% 84-100% 98-83%

Age of the respondent

(years old)

49-51 50 45-50

Respondent’s

education (years)

7-9 6-9 5-6

Household size 7 6 6

Marital status

(married)

95-98% 96-100% 92-97%

Religion (Hindu) 95-100% 96-100% 88-99%

Household Characteristics

Farm characteristics

Characteristics Original user

Neighbor

User Non user

Average farm size (ha) 1.0- 1.1 0.60-0.98 0.49-0.92

% (marginal farmers) 40-60% 53-87% 68-93%

Land type (% area)

(Medium land)

45-50% 46-56% 43-58%

Tenure (owned%) 82-98% 80-98% 63-98%

Rent-in (36%)

Irrigation source

Odisha Canal (57%)

No irrigation (22%)

Electric/Diesel tube well (44%) and No

irrigation (40%)

Canal (66%)

Uttar Pradesh Electric/Diesel tube

well (81%)

Electric/Diesel tube

well (93%)

Electric/Diesel tube well (97%)

Rice varieties Odisha Uttar Pradesh

Swarna (1979) 11% 18%

Swarna Sub1 (2009) 7% 25%

Sarju 52 (1980) 11%

Pooja (1999) 44%

Samba Mahsuri (1986) 7% 22%

Others 31% 24%

Major rice varieties kharif 2011(% area)

Adoption of Swarna Sub1 (number of farmers)

9%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

UP Odisha

State

Nu

mb

er

of

farm

ers

Neighbor Neighbor user

Number of farmers with Swarna Sub1 seeds (by year of acquisition) in Odisha

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2009 2010 2011

Year of first acquisition

Per

cen

tag

e o

f fa

rmer

s (%

)

OU Neighbor userOU – 4.7 kg

Neighbor – 11.1 kg

Number of farmers with Swarna Sub1 seeds (by year of acquisition) in UP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011

Year of first acquisition

Per

cen

tag

e o

f fa

rmer

s (%

)

OU Neighbor userOU – 13.2 kg

Neighbor – 6.6 kg

Yield Effects under different days of flood during Kharif 2011

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

No submergence 1 to 7 days 8 to 14 days

Type of submergence

Yie

ld (

t/h

a)

Swarna Swarna sub1

Percentage sold and prices (in 2011)

Rice variety

Odisha Uttar Pradesh

% sold Price (Rs/kg)

% sold Price (Rs/kg)

Swarna 63 9.57 53 8.83

Swarna sub-1 56 9.51 54 8.63

Transfer of Swarna Sub1Odisha Uttar Pradesh

Farmers transfer seeds (%) 28% 5%

Number of recipients 52 40

Mode of transfer Sold (40%)

Exchange with rice seeds (18%)

Given away (55%)

To whom it was

transferred

Husband’s male relative (60%)

Male farmers neither relative or friend (55%)

Location Villagers (48%) Outsider (67%)

Outsider (48%)

Odisha Uttar Pradesh

Known OU (average) 2 4

Distance from OU house (walking minutes)

7 9

Distance from OU plot (walking minutes)

14 15

Years known 28 30

Given seeds by OU No (95%) No (97%)

Relationship of neighbor to OU

Distribution of sample respondents

Distribution of sample respondents in Uttar Pradesh

Distribution of sample respondents in a Gorakphur village

Distribution of sample respondents in a Gorakphur village

Summary

• High participation male farmers in the initial adoption and transfer of Swarna Sub1 seeds.

• Adoption of Swarna Sub1 was low among the neighbors. However, among the adopters, high adoption was observed in 2011.

• Acceptability of Swarna Sub1 in the local market having a comparable price with Swarna.

• Yield effect of Swarna Sub1 adoption is prominent under 8 to 14 days in Orissa.

• Small portion of the Swarna Sub1 seeds were transferred during kharif 2011.

Future Direction for Research

• Ex-ante analysis of Swarna Sub 1 adoption in Eastern India (Takashi/Malu/Manzoor/Murali) • Farm-level diffusion studies such as Social Network Analysis (SNA) that will identify the factors affecting the rapid transfer of the stress tolerant varieties (Swarna Sub1) using panel data for three cropping season (Malu/Takashi/Val).

• Adoption studies that deals on farmer’s perception about the attributes of the variety (Theory of Planned Behavior) (Takashi/Malu/Srinivas)

Future Direction for Research

• Seed system studies that focus institutional constraints (seed growers, traders and millers) that affect the rapid delivery of other stress-tolerant variety such as Sahbhagi Dhan.

• Gender studies that deals with identification of the constraints that enable the women to participate in the transfer of new seeds.

• Randomized Control Trial of Sahbhagi Dhan in Odisha, West Bengal (Takashi/Malu/Manzoor/UC Berkeley team).

• Assessment of Block Demonstrations of Ministry of Agriculture, India (Takashi/Manzoor/Malu/Architesh-new assistant)