Dia 1 · 2019. 9. 30. · Title: Dia 1 Author: Bart Created Date: 9/26/2019 12:55:58 PM
Transcript of Dia 1 · 2019. 9. 30. · Title: Dia 1 Author: Bart Created Date: 9/26/2019 12:55:58 PM
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Socfinasia (-19,2%; Max: -19,2%)
Luxemburg beperkte handel
Impact handelsoorlogpalmolie: +9,8% | rubber -0,22%
Operationeel beter dan Sipef
Geen vulkaanproblemen
Exmar (+0,6%; Max: +25,5%)
Contract Tango FLNG
Herfinanciering NOK obligatieSaverex van CEO verkocht
EnWave (+74%; Max: +116,3%)
Succes cannabismarkt
Sucess verkoop gedroogde kazen (MoonCheese)
VFB Selectie 2018: (+18,5%; max. +40,85%)23/09/2019 12.60 EUR (-2.33%)SOCFINASIA
11.8
12
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.8
13
13.2
13.4
13.6
13.8
14
14.2
14.4
14.6
14.8
15
15.2
15.4
15.6
15.8
16
16.2
16.4
16.6
16.8
+7%
+5%
+3%
+2%
0%
-2%
-3%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-9%
-10%
-11%
-12%
-14%
-15%
-16%
-17%
-18%
-19%
-20%
-21%
-22%
-23%
-24%
-25%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%
2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%
5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%
3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%
4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%
6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%
3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%
10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%
5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%
15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%
6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%
0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%
0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
CloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseClose Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M) Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)
OctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb19DecNovOctSepAug
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolume Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)
23/09/2019 5.53 EUR (-0.72%)EXMAR
5.2
5.25
5.3
5.35
5.4
5.45
5.5
5.55
5.6
5.65
5.7
5.75
5.8
5.85
5.9
5.95
6
6.05
6.1
6.15
6.2
6.25
6.3
6.35
6.4
6.45
6.5
6.55
6.6
6.65
6.7
6.75
+6%
+5%
+4%
+3%
+2%
+1%
+1%
-0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-9%
-9%
-10%
-11%
-12%
-12%
-13%
-14%
-14%
-15%
-16%
-16%
-17%
-17%
-18%
0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%
2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%
1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%
6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%
2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%
5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%
7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%
1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%
3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%
5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%
4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%
2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%
0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%
2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%
3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%
CloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseClose Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M) Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)
OctoberSeptemberAugustJulyJuneMayAprilMarchFebruari2019DecemberNovemberOctoberSeptember
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolume Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)
23/09/2019 2.14 CAD (+3.88%)ENWAVE
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
1.95
2
2.05
2.1
2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
2.45
2.5
2.55
2.6
+71%
+65%
+59%
+53%
+48%
+43%
+38%
+34%
+30%
+26%
+22%
+19%
+16%
+13%
+10%
+7%
+4%
+2%
-0%
-3%
-5%
-7%
-9%
-11%
-13%
-14%
-16%
-18%
2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%
6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%
4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%
2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%
0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%
4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%
3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%
12.1%12.1%12.1%12.1%12.1%12.1%12.1%12.1%12.1%
4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%
4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%
4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
CloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseClose Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M) Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)
1000000
OctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb19DecNovOctSep
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolume Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Resilux: Na het zaaien zal de oogst volgen…
VFB Selectie 2019
Belgische petpreformproducent, blaast ook plastic flessen + pet-recyclagefabriek in Zwitserland
9 productiefaciliteiten BE, ESP, GRE, RUS, CH, USA, HU, ROE, SERB + Inhouse CH, GER
Margeverbeteringlightweight, dubbele wanden, andere toepassingen food & drinks, recyclage
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Resilux: Na het zaaien zal de oogst volgen…
VFB Selectie 2019
Komt uit zware investeringscyclus2017 8,1 mio euro2018 34,5 mio euro Nieuwe recyclagefabriek in CH2019 H1: 17,4 mio euro Nieuwe fabriek Roemenië
Nieuwe machines
Combinatie van: te late opstart recyclagete late levering machinesslechte zomer 2019
Volumes + 6,4% Omzet +11,3%Toegevoegde waarde +0,7%
www.beurstips.com
Resilux: Na het zaaien zal de oogst volgen…
VFB Selectie 2019
H2 2019Groei volumesEBITDA H2 2019 = H2 2018: 20,7 mio euro -> 2019 EBITDA: 42,7 mio euro
Investeringen gaan fors dalen
2020? De oogst zal volgenInvesteringen nemen verder af -> eind 2020 schuldenvrijGroei t.o.v. referentiejaar 2018 (43,8 moi euro EBITDA)Hefboom op winst!
Waardering 2019K/W = 16,8 EV/EBITDA = 5,8 Div%= 2,3 K/boekwaarde = 1,9
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Resilux: Na het zaaien zal de oogst volgen…
VFB Selectie 2019
24/09/2019 130.50 EUR (-0.38%)RESILUX
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
166
168
170
172
174
176
178
180
182
184
186
188
+11%
+9%
+7%
+5%
+4%
+2%
0%
-1%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-7%
-8%
-9%
-11%
-12%
-13%
-14%
-15%
-16%
-17%
-18%
-19%
-20%
-21%
-22%
-23%
-24%
-25%
-26%
-27%
-27%
-28%
-29%
-30%
-31%
0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%
0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%
0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%
6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%
4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%
2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%
1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%
CloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseClose Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M) Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)
20000
40000
60000
OctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb19DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb18DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb17DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb16DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMay
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolume Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)
LT Koersdoel: 205 euro
Overnamekandidaat
Enorme honger Private equityspelers
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Exmar: Van opportuniteit naar realiteit
VFB Selectie 2019
Uitbater & bouwer van LNG-infrastructuur, LPG-schepen en ondersteunende diensten
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Exmar: Van opportuniteit naar realiteit
VFB Selectie 2019
Okt 2018 – Huurinkomsten FSRU - GunvorEBITDA = 23,5 mio $/jaar
Okt 2018 – Herfinanciering drukvloot | 60 mio $
Nov 2018 - Verhuur Tango FLNG aan YPFEBITDA > 43 mio $/jaarOpgestart in mei 2019 Volledige productie – sept 2019
April 2019 – nieuw contract 2 VLGC-tankers voor Equinor
Juni 2019 – obligatielening 650 mio NOK/75 mio $
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Exmar: Van opportuniteit naar realiteit
VFB Selectie 2019
H1 2019 2018 2017 2017
Meerwaarden 31.900.000 73.800.000 25.000.000
Operating Income ↑↑↑ 99.500.000 170.400.000 214.900.000 305.900.000
EBITDA ↑↑↑ 48.500.000 67.400.000 141.400.000 116.500.000
LNG ↑↑ 2.100.000 6.100.000 42.600.000 50.400.000
Offshore ↑ -700.000 -1.800.000 -7.300.000 -1.700.000
LPG ↑↑ 24.600.000 29.800.000 31.300.000 41.700.000
Services & Holding ↑ 100.000 1.800.000 25.500.000 -1.200.000
Net Income ↑↑↑ -7.800.000 -15.900.000 28.000.000 40.400.000
Net debt ↙↙ 550 576 554 559
RE
BIT
DA
2020
130
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
Resilux: Na het zaaien zal de oogst volgen…
VFB Selectie 2019
Koersdoel: 11,5 euro
Eenmaal borg FLNG vrijKapitaalvermindering?Inkoop eigen aandelen?Om Saverex schuldenvrij te maken
BonusForse toename LPG-tarieven
24/09/2019 5.45 EUR (-1.45%)EXMAR
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
+36%
+30%
+24%
+18%
+14%
+9%
+5%
+1%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
-17%
-20%
-22%
-24%
-26%
-28%
-30%
-32%
-34%
-35%
-37%
-38%
-39%
-41%
-42%
-43%
-44%
-45%
-47%
-48%
-49%
-50%
2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%
1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%
2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%
2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%
2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%
4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%
6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%
10.5%10.5%10.5%10.5%10.5%10.5%10.5%10.5%10.5%
7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%
6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%
5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%
4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%
2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%
1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%
1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%
0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%
1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%
1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%
1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%
CloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseClose Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M) Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)
2019201820172016
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolume Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
ForFarmers: Na de slechte oogst…
VFB Selectie 2019
Nederlandse veevoederspecialist: #1 Europa
Opgestart als coöperatie in 1896 – 2016 IPO Euronext Amsterdam
Actief in Nederland, Duitsland, België, Polen en het VK
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
ForFarmers: Na de slechte oogst…
VFB Selectie 2019
H2 2018 – H1 2019: Rampjaar
Ondanks groei volumes: (H1: totaal +5,2% & mengvoer +7,2%)EBITDA en nettowinst onder druk
Verkeerde hedgingpositiesUitzonderlijke droogte in 2018
Woog tot in Q2 2019H1 2019: Courante EBITDA 35,8 mio euro; -31,5%H1 2019: Courante nettowinst 11,9 mio euro; -61,5%
ActieKostenbesparingsprogramma 10 mio euro; impact Q4 2019Inkoopprogramma 30 miljoen euro
VFB Dag van de Tips 2019 www.beurstips.com
ForFarmers: Na de slechte oogst…
VFB Selectie 2019
25/09/2019 5.70 EUR (-0.18%)FORFARMERS
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12
-2%
-5%
-8%
-11%
-14%
-16%
-19%
-21%
-23%
-25%
-27%
-29%
-30%
-32%
-34%
-35%
-37%
-38%
-39%
-41%
-42%
-43%
-44%
-45%
-46%
-47%
-48%
-49%
-50%
-51%
-52%
-52%
3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%
4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%
1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%
8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%
6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%
2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%
3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%
1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%
1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%
4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%
4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%
4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%
3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%
3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%
0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
CloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseCloseClose Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M)Avg. (40 M) Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)Avg. (200 M)
OSAJJMAMF19DNOSAJJMAMF18DNOSAJJMAMF17DNOSAJJ
VolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolumeVolume Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)Avg. (50 E)
Koersdoel: 10,5 euro
Sterke verbetering EBITDAin H2 2019~ 120 mio euro in 2020
= +20% tov 2018