DI-Detring SCOOP-STACK Teaser 2017-05 · Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb...
Transcript of DI-Detring SCOOP-STACK Teaser 2017-05 · Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb...
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SCOOP-STACK REPORTMay 2017
REPORT SAMPLE
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SCOOP-STACK Region Report | Table of Contents
This presentation is for discussion purposes only. Information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. You assume all risk using the information. In no event shall Detring & Associates, LLC or its representatives be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages resulting from the use of this information.
The materials are confidential, for your private use only, and may not be shared with others (other than your advisors) without Detring & Associates, LLC’s written permission.
Title Page Number
Introduction 2
Geologic Overview 14
Horizontal Activity Update 30
Heard on the Street 43
Well Performance Analysis 59
Springer 71
Woodford 85
Mississippian 154
Top Operator Detail 185
County Detail 214
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Introduction | Location Map(1)
21. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010 and horizontal rigs as of May 26, 2017
Caddo
Woods
Grady
Grant
Major
Kiowa
Clay
Custer
Blaine
Dewey
Kay
Ellis
Alfalfa
Garfield
Washita
Logan
Woodward
Tillman
Carter
JacksonComanche
Greer
Wilbarger
Noble
Canadian
Stephens
Garvin
Cotton
Harper
Kingfisher
Jefferson
LoveWichita
Oklahoma
McClain
Beckham
Cleveland
Roger Mills
Foard
BaylorMontague
Payne
Archer
Hardeman
Cooke
Murray
Knox
0.752016-17 Hz Permits
Hz Wells
Hz Rigs
CoreSTACK
NESTACK
MERGE
SCOOP
NW STACK
West STACK(Gas)
SCOOP Oil
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Introduction | Top Zones Location Map(1)
31. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010.
Caddo
Woods
Grady
Grant
Major
Kiowa
Clay
Custer
Blaine
Dewey
Kay
Ellis
Alfalfa
Garfield
Washita
Logan
Woodward
Tillman
Carter
JacksonComanche
Greer
Wilbarger
Noble
Canadian
Stephens
Garvin
Cotton
Harper
Kingfisher
Jefferson
LoveWichita
Oklahoma
McClain
Beckham
Cleveland
Roger Mills
Foard
BaylorMontague
Payne
Archer
Hardeman
Cooke
Murray
Knox
SpringerHuntonMississippianWoodfordOthers
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68
37
27 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 2219
16 15 15 14 1412 12 12
RE
EV
ES
(TX
)
MID
LA
ND
(TX
)
ED
DY
(NM
)
BL
AIN
E (O
K)
MA
RT
IN (T
X)
LE
A (N
M)
LO
VIN
G (T
X)
WE
LD
(CO
)
KA
RN
ES
(TX
)
KIN
GFI
SHE
R (O
K)
MC
KE
NZ
IE (N
D)
HO
WA
RD
(TX
)
RE
AG
AN
(TX
)
GR
AD
Y (O
K)
UP
TO
N (T
X)
GL
ASS
CO
CK
(TX
)
WA
RD
(TX
)
DIM
MIT
(TX
)
DU
NN
(ND
)
LA
SA
LL
E (T
X)
4
Introduction | SCOOP-STACK vs. Top U.S. Resource Plays
Hz Rigs Running by County (Total U.S.)(1)
Hz Spuds Through Time
781 Hz Rigs Running
1. Hz rig count as of May 26, 2017
26%
20%
16%
13%
8%
7%6%
4% Delaware
Midland
SCOOP/ STACK
Eagle Ford
Appalachia
Williston
Haynesville
DJ
SCOOP-STACK Play second region in the country in hz
rig count at 16% of total (behind the Permian Basin).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
Act
ual
Mon
thly
Sp
ud
s
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Nov
-14
May
-15
Nov
-15
May
-16
Nov
-16
May
-17
Mon
thly
Sp
ud
s vs
. Oct
-14
Nov-14 collapse in oil pricing
38%
58%
149%
190%
180%
Midland Delaware Eagle Ford SCOOP/STACK Williston
Nov-14 collapse in oil pricing
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Horizontal Activity Update | Development Through Time(1)
1. Operator activity based on spudded wells since 2010.
Caddo
Woods
Grady
Grant
Major
Kiowa
Clay
Custer
Blaine
Dewey
Kay
Ellis
Alfalfa
Garfield
Washita
Logan
Woodward
Tillman
Carter
JacksonComanche
Greer
Noble
Wilbarger
Canadian
Stephens
Garvin
Cotton
Harper
Kingfisher
Jefferson
LoveWichita
Oklahoma
McClain
Beckham
Cleveland
Roger Mills
Foard
Payne
BaylorMontague
Archer
Hardeman
Cooke
Murray
Knox
2016-17201520142013Pre-2013
CANA Core
Hz Development has expanded dramatically over the last ~18 months as operators exploit the core
STACK and SCOOP and expand the boundaries of each, including into the Merge.
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Horizontal Activity Update | Treated Lateral Length Heat Map(1) (Ft)
1. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010.
Caddo
Woods
Grady
Grant
Major
Kiowa
Clay
Custer
Blaine
Dewey
Kay
Ellis
Alfalfa
Garfield
Washita
Logan
Woodward
Tillman
Carter
JacksonComanche
Greer
Noble
Wilbarger
Canadian
Stephens
Garvin
Cotton
Harper
Kingfisher
Jefferson
LoveWichita
Oklahoma
McClain
Beckham
Cleveland
Roger Mills
Foard
Payne
BaylorMontague
Archer
Hardeman
Cooke
Murray
Knox
< 5,0005,000 – 6,0006,000 – 7,0007,000 – 8,0008,000 – 9,0009,000 – 10,000
> 10,000
Operators have substantially increased lateral length with recent development in in core areas.
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Caddo
Grady
Kiowa
Major
Custer
Dewey
Blaine
Garfield
Ellis
Washita
Woodward
Logan
Tillman
Woods
Carter
Greer
Grant
Jackson
ComancheGarvin
Noble
Stephens
Canadian
Cotton
Alfalfa
Wilbarger
Kingfisher
Clay
Jefferson
Kay
Love
Oklahoma
Wichita
McClain
Cleveland
Harper
Payne
Murray
Lincoln
Harmon
Montague Cooke
Horizontal Activity Update | Well Performance Map
EUR vs. GOR (All Zones)
7
GOR generally increases from east to west in the SCOOP-STACK
along with reservoir depth.
Legend (Size = EUR)
100% Oil 100% Gas
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111.8
66.3
62.4
49.1
31.4
Continental
Devon
Newfield
Cimarex
Gulfport
95.9
95.5
57.2
52.7
46.3
Canadian
Grady
Stephens
Kingfisher
Blaine
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Well C
oun
t ('000s)G
ross
MB
oed
Gas (MBoed)
Oil (MBbld)
Well Count
Horizontal Activity Update | Wellhead Production Detail(1)
Production Through Time (MBoed)
Top Operators & Counties (November 2016)
81. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010.
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Clay
Caddo
Woods
Grady
Grant
Kiowa
Major
Custer
Kay
Dewey
Blaine
Alfalfa
Baylor Archer
Garfield
Ellis
Washita
Woodward
Barber
Logan
Tillman
Carter
Greer
Sumner
Jackson
ComancheGarvin
Noble
Cooke
Wilbarger
Stephens
Canadian
Cotton
Harper
Montague
Kingfisher
Love
Jefferson
Knox
Wichita
Oklahoma
McClain
Cleveland
Beckham
Roger Mills
Foard
Clark
Payne
Jack
Hardeman
Murray
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E+
Oil ($/Bbl): $48.44 $49.13 $48.96 $49.25 $49.99Gas ($/Mcf): $3.31 $3.07 $2.87 $2.87 $2.89
1,998 horizontal wells were declined across the SCOOP-STACK Region (Springer, Woodford and Mississippian)(1)
– Both hydrocarbon streams forecast (wellhead oil and gas)
– Wells parsed by data quality to increase accuracy (see following page)
Economics by well generated using actual & forecast production and economic parameters above
– Capex calculated by well based on lateral length, measured depth and proppant pumped
Type curve subsets generated within each play based on well vintage, geography, performance, hydrocarbon content and completion parameters
– IP-30 and EUR based on statistical distributions (wellhead oil and gas) per pound of proppant
– Curvature (“b” factor) and final decline (“Dm”) based on average of Type 1A wells within subset
– Initial decline (“Di”) varied until IP-30 and EUR match statistical data
Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb frac’s (i.e., 7,500 ft laterals at 2,000 lb/ft)
Well Performance Analysis | Summary
Location Map
Methodology
Legend
DeclinedUndeclined(2)
Economic Assumptions
Pricing: NYMEX strip as of 5/26/2017
Differentials: ($4.00)/Bbl oil, ($0.50)/Mcf, 35% of NYMEX NGL realized pricing
LOE: $10k/well/mo. for 12 months, $5k/well/mo. thereafter (fixed) + $4.00/Boe (variable)
Gas Stream: 20-30% shrink, 90 - 120 Bbl/MMcfNGL yield
OK Taxes: 2.0% for 36 months, 7.1% thereafter
Capex: Based on public disclosure and varied by well based on lateral length, proppant, and depth
Acreage Valuation/Drill-Out (Base Case):
Rigs: 1 rig
Spud-to-Spud Timing: 30 days
Gross Acres: 15,000
Spacing: 160 acres
Location Count: 93 gross locations
Valuation: PV20
91. Horizontal wells with first production after 1/1/2010 and publicly available
production data at time of publication.2. Wells with inadequate production data to forecast reserves & economics.
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Type Area Summary (28 Areas)
1. EUR and IP data are three-stream values, normalized for 7500 TLL & 15MMlb proppant
10
Our well performance analysis buttresses results disclosed by operators in the area, with an
average EUR of ~2 MMBoe when normalized to modern completion techniques.
Threshold Oil Price
Pre-Tax Capex ($/Bbl) @ ROR of: EUR(1) IP30(1)
Area ROR ($MM) 10% 20% $M/Acre MBoe % Liq (Boed)STACK MISSISSIPPIANMISSISSIPPIAN_01 73% $6.6 $27.2 $32.7 $11 1,383 70% 1,721MISSISSIPPIAN_02 0% 6.5 62.30 72.88 0 482 76% 784MISSISSIPPIAN_03 31% 6.9 37.28 43.58 3 900 75% 1,685MISSISSIPPIAN_04 122% $7.0 $25.1 $29.3 17 1,405 77% 2,315MISSISSIPPIAN_05 72% 7.1 24.57 30.49 12 1,710 64% 2,068MISSISSIPPIAN_06 38% 6.9 29.65 37.89 3 1,437 47% 2,753MISSISSIPPIAN_07 11% 7.2 48.36 56.92 0 678 78% 1,281Average: 50% $6.9 $36.3 $43.4 $7 1,142 70% 1,801
SCOOP SPRINGERSPRINGER_01 25% $11.4 $37.1 $45.4 $3 1,376 85% 1,603SPRINGER_02 119% 11.3 23.87 28.44 33 2,262 82% 2,642Average: 72% $11.4 $30.5 $36.9 18 1,819 83% 2,122
SCOOP WOODFORDWOODFORD_01 39% $10.9 $24.9 $34.7 $10 2,756 53% 2,259WOODFORD_02 41% 10.9 NA NA 9 4,085 2% 3,107WOODFORD_03 22% 10.7 34.7 47.2 0 2,157 49% 2,046WOODFORD_04 44% 11.1 30.1 37.2 10 1,976 61% 2,566WOODFORD_05 114% 11.0 NA 15.1 28 4,451 45% 4,565WOODFORD_06 72% 11.1 15.1 23.4 20 3,676 48% 3,265WOODFORD_07 24% 11.0 NA 29.7 1 3,215 4% 2,401WOODFORD_08 22% 10.9 38.3 47.7 1 1,422 75% 1,473WOODFORD_09 48% 10.9 20.8 30.2 13 3,139 50% 2,420WOODFORD_10 39% 10.8 32.1 39.2 11 1,551 89% 1,343Average: 46% $10.9 $28.0 $33.8 10 2,843 47% 2,544
STACK WOODFORDWOODFORD_11 6% $10.6 $55.7 $68.2 $0 924 77% 1,164WOODFORD_12 3% 10.9 107.7 NA 0 1,763 5% 2,069WOODFORD_13 6% 10.7 97.0 NA 0 2,079 4% 1,541WOODFORD_14 23% 10.7 32.1 45.4 0 2,368 46% 2,384WOODFORD_15 6% 10.7 108.7 NA 0 2,033 3% 1,783WOODFORD_16 9% 11.0 NA NA 0 2,566 0% 2,030WOODFORD_17 2% 10.7 70.8 93.0 0 1,317 47% 1,372WOODFORD_18 (21%) 10.6 NA NA 0 428 48% 697WOODFORD_19 17% 10.7 38.0 53.7 0 2,157 49% 1,444Average: 6% $10.7 $72.9 $65.1 $0 1,737 31% 1,609
Total Average 36% $9.9 $44.40 $42.84 $7 1,989 50% 2,028
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Caddo
Major
Grady
Custer
Dewey
Blaine
Kiowa
Washita
GarfieldWoodward
Canadian
Kingfisher
Greer
Ellis
Woods Alfalfa
Beckham
Roger Mills
Logan
Comanche
GrantHarper
0 5 10 15 202.5
Miles
®
Geology | STACK Meramec Structure | SSTVD Feet
11
The depth to the top of Meramec increases towards Southwest. With the Nemaha ridge
supporting the Eastern shelf and the Anadarko shelf to the North, most STACK maps maintain
a similar appearance.
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Mississippian | Top Operators(1)
1. Operator activity based on spudded wells since 2010.
Caddo
Grady
Woods
Major
Kiowa
Custer
Blaine
Grant
Dewey
Garfield
Washita
Alfalfa
Woodward
Tillman
Logan
Ellis
ComancheJackson
Canadian
Stephens
Greer
Cotton
Wilbarger
Clay
Kay
Kingfisher
Carter
Jefferson
Garvin
Harper
Noble
Wichita
Oklahoma
McClain
Beckham
Roger Mills
Love
Cleveland
Foard
Payne
Hardeman
Newfield (148)Alta Mesa (128)Continental (83) Devon (78) Marathon (78) Longfellow (69)Tapstone (44)Chaparral (37)Cimarex (37)Hinkle (34)Others (177)
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13
Mississippian Area 1 | Summary
Location Map
Top Operators (Total Wells Drilled) Spuds Through Time
Avg. EUR (MBoe) and IP-30 (Boed)(1)
Oil Gas 1. 2-phase.
Avg. TLL (Mft) and Proppant (MMlb) Avg. Frac Density (lbs/ft)
EU
RIP
-30
ROID >2.0x ROID 1.0-2.0x ROID 0.5-1.0x ROID <0.5x
-8500-9000
-8000
-9500
-7500
-7000
-10000
-10500
-11000
-11500
-6500
-12000
-6000
-12500
-5500
-13000
-13500
-5000
-14000
-4500
-12000-11000-11500
-12500
Major
Custer
Blaine
Dewey
CaddoWashita
Woods
Garfield
AlfalfaGrant
Canadian
Kingfisher
Woodward
Grady
46 114 206 198
448 200 78
199 204
282
247 192
405 401
730
76 249
374 658 660
64
40 85
191 365
141 289
459
849
1,025
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
73
9
4
3
3
ALTA MESA
HINKLE
PAYNE
CHISHOLM
GASTAR
2
10
17 18
36
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4.3 4.3 4.3 4.8
5.4
1.8 1.8
2.8 3.4
5.7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TLL Proppant
423 405
655 694
1,053
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Oil Gas (MMcf) NGL Total % Liquids
(MBo) WH Sales (MBbl) WH Sales WH Sales
IP 1,630 2,524 1,767 303 2,051 2,227 79% 87%
IP-30 1,167 2,341 1,639 281 1,557 1,721 75% 84%
EUR 538 3,568 2,498 428 1,133 1,383 48% 70%
Di 100.0% 86.5% NA NA NA NA NA NA
b 1.216 1.770 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Dm 8.0% 8.0% NA NA NA NA NA NA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 2 4 6 8 10
Cum
. Pro
d. (
MB
oe)
Years
Cum Gas
Cum Oil
1,000 MBoe
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
0 2 4 6 8 10
Avg
. Pro
d. (
Bbl
d |
Mcf
d)
Years
Oil (Bod)
Gas (Mcfd)
P99
P90
P50
P10
P1
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000EUR (MBbl/MMcf) & IP-30 (Bod/Mcfd) per MMlb Prop.
EUR / MMlb Prop IP-30 / MMlb PropMBbl MMcf Bod Mcfd
Stat. Mean 69 456 149 293P10 117 861 246 453P90 31 153 71 161Skew (P10/P90) 3.8x 5.6x 3.5x 2.8xCount 41 28 40 30
Oil48%
Gas52%
IP-3
0 M
ix
Oil75%
Gas25%
EU
R M
ix
Type Curve Parameters(1) Type Curve Profile
Statistical Distributions
Type Curve Cumulative Production
Mississippian Area 1 | Type Curve Summary
1. IP/EUR data in Bod/MBbl (oil), Mcfd/MMcf (gas), and Boed/MBoe (total). “Per MMlb” values assume 15 MMlb proppant. 14
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$9
$7
$8
$7
$13
$14
$15
$16
Spacing
Rigs
Capex
Pricing
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
An
nu
al EB
ITD
A /
Cap
ex ($MM
)
Avg
. Pro
d. (
MB
oed
)
Year
Net Prod. EBITDA Capex
EUR DetailGas Total % Liq.
Oil WH Sales NGL WH Sales SalesEUR 538 3,568 2,498 428 1,133 1,383 70%Economic (Pre-Tax) & Capex Parameters
PV-10 PV-15 PV-20 PV-25 PV-30NPV ($MM) $6.05 $4.57 $3.56 $2.83 $2.27ROR 73%Payout (Years) (Undis. / Disc. @ 10%) 1.42 1.50ROI (Undis. / Disc. @ 10%) 3.13x 1.93xBase Case $M/Acre $11.4Capex ($MM) $6.6MD (Mft) / TLL (Mft) / Proppant (MMlb) 19.6 / 7.5 / 15.0
$5.7
$2.2 $1.5 $1.1 $0.9
$6.7
$2.6
$1.8$1.4 $1.2
0 1 2 3 4
Year
Taxes LOE
EBITDA Revenue
70%
51%
49%
48%
77%
103%
106%
123%
Opex
Type Curve
Price
Capex
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00
Pre
-Tax
RO
R
Oil Price ($/Bbl)
Capex TH Price$5.60 $23.58$6.60 $27.16$7.60 $30.76
1. ROR sensitivity ranges: +/-10% for Price, Type Curve, and Opex | +/-$1MM for Capex.
2. Threshold pricing calculated by holding gas price deck at strip.
3. Upside/ Downside: Rig (2.0 /0.5), Pricing (+10%/-10%), Spacing (120ac/240ac), Capex (-$1MM/ +$1MM)
Mississippian Area 1 | Type Curve Economics
Base Case: 73%
Base Case: $11M
Single-Well ROR Sensitivities(1)Type Curve Economics Summary(1)
Single-Well Revenue/EBITDA ($MM) Single-Well Oil Price/Capex Sensitivities(2)
Drill-Out Production & FCF $M/Acre Sensitivities(3)
15
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Top Operator Detail | Continental Resources Position
Continental Resources owns one of the more premier positions in the basin including core
STACK and SCOOP along with its JV with SK Petroleum in the NE Custer/SW Blaine area.
16Hz Rigs 2016-17 Hz Permits Hz Wells Continental Resources Acreage Position
Caddo
Grady
Major
Kiowa
Custer
Blaine
Dewey
Ellis
Garfield
Washita
Logan
Woodward
Tillman
Carter
JacksonComanche
Greer
Woods
Noble
Canadian
Stephens
Garvin
Grant
Cotton
Alfalfa
Wilbarger
Kingfisher
Clay
Jefferson
Kay
Oklahoma
Wichita Love
McClain
Beckham
Cleveland
Roger Mills
Harper
Payne
Foard
Hardeman
Murray
Casillas / Continental (Aug-16)$281MM | $9M/Acre
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Top Operator Detail | Continental Operational Statistics
Spuds Through Time
Spuds by Reservoir (2010-2016) Gross Operated Production (MBoed)(2)
Avg. EUR (MBoe) and IP-30 (Boed)(1)
Avg. TLL (Mft) and Proppant (MMlb) Avg. Frac Density (lbs/ft)
EU
RIP
-30
1. 2-phase.2. Horizontal wells with first production after 1/1/2010 and publicly available production data
at time of publication.
44 50
110
92
104
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
119 220 319 354 263 475
824 679 1,023
1,592 594
1,044 998
1,377
1,855
135 306 295 458 352 467
704 518
852 1,146 602
1,011 813
1,310 1,497
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
60%16%
9%
8%7%
Woodford Mississippian Springer Hunton Other/NA 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Well C
oun
t
Gro
ss M
Boe
d
Gas (Boed)
Oil (Bbld)
Well Count
4.0 5.2
6.3 7.7
8.6
2.7 4.4
5.2
9.4
18.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TLL Proppant
685 847 818
1,215
2,099
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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County Detail | Grady Co. Hz Activity(1)
Grady County has experienced a resurgence as operators continue developing the core SCOOP
in the southeast but also expand into Merge development in the north.
181. Hz rigs as of May 26, 2017
Grady
Caddo
McClain
Stephens
Comanche
Canadian
Garvin
Cleveland
Oklahoma
SpringerMississippianWoodfordHuntonOthers/NA
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County Detail | Grady Co. Operational Statistics
Spuds Through Time
Spuds by Reservoir (2010-2016) Gross Operated Production (MBoed)(2)
Avg. EUR (MBoe) and IP-30 (Boed)(1)
Avg. TLL (Mft) and Proppant (MMlb) Avg. Frac Density (lbs/ft)
EU
RIP
-30
1. 2-phase.2. Horizontal wells with first production after 1/1/2010 and publicly available production data
at time of publication.
692
874 936 904
1,501
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4.2 5.1
5.7 6.5
7.4
2.9
4.5 5.3
5.9
11.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TLL Proppant
68%5%
10%
11%
6%
Woodford Mississippian Springer Hunton Other/NA 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Well C
oun
t
Gro
ss M
Boe
d
Gas (Boed)
Oil (Bbld)
Well Count
161 252 385 476 358 402
577 416 616 963 564
828 801
1,092 1,321
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
155 195 326 337 257 610 665 392
709
1,709 765 860 718
1,046
1,966
45
58
119
91
64
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016