DI-Detring SCOOP-STACK Teaser 2017-05 · Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb...

20
SCOOP-STACK REPORT May 2017 REPORT SAMPLE

Transcript of DI-Detring SCOOP-STACK Teaser 2017-05 · Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb...

Page 1: DI-Detring SCOOP-STACK Teaser 2017-05 · Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb frac’s (i.e., ... MISSISSIPPIAN_02 0% 6.5 62.30 72.88 0 482 76% 784

SCOOP-STACK REPORTMay 2017

REPORT SAMPLE

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SCOOP-STACK Region Report | Table of Contents

This presentation is for discussion purposes only. Information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. You assume all risk using the information. In no event shall Detring & Associates, LLC or its representatives be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages resulting from the use of this information.

The materials are confidential, for your private use only, and may not be shared with others (other than your advisors) without Detring & Associates, LLC’s written permission.

Title Page Number

Introduction 2

Geologic Overview 14

Horizontal Activity Update 30

Heard on the Street 43

Well Performance Analysis 59

Springer 71

Woodford 85

Mississippian 154

Top Operator Detail 185

County Detail 214

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Introduction | Location Map(1)

21. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010 and horizontal rigs as of May 26, 2017

Caddo

Woods

Grady

Grant

Major

Kiowa

Clay

Custer

Blaine

Dewey

Kay

Ellis

Alfalfa

Garfield

Washita

Logan

Woodward

Tillman

Carter

JacksonComanche

Greer

Wilbarger

Noble

Canadian

Stephens

Garvin

Cotton

Harper

Kingfisher

Jefferson

LoveWichita

Oklahoma

McClain

Beckham

Cleveland

Roger Mills

Foard

BaylorMontague

Payne

Archer

Hardeman

Cooke

Murray

Knox

0.752016-17 Hz Permits

Hz Wells

Hz Rigs

CoreSTACK

NESTACK

MERGE

SCOOP

NW STACK

West STACK(Gas)

SCOOP Oil

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Introduction | Top Zones Location Map(1)

31. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010.

Caddo

Woods

Grady

Grant

Major

Kiowa

Clay

Custer

Blaine

Dewey

Kay

Ellis

Alfalfa

Garfield

Washita

Logan

Woodward

Tillman

Carter

JacksonComanche

Greer

Wilbarger

Noble

Canadian

Stephens

Garvin

Cotton

Harper

Kingfisher

Jefferson

LoveWichita

Oklahoma

McClain

Beckham

Cleveland

Roger Mills

Foard

BaylorMontague

Payne

Archer

Hardeman

Cooke

Murray

Knox

SpringerHuntonMississippianWoodfordOthers

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68

37

27 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 2219

16 15 15 14 1412 12 12

RE

EV

ES

(TX

)

MID

LA

ND

(TX

)

ED

DY

(NM

)

BL

AIN

E (O

K)

MA

RT

IN (T

X)

LE

A (N

M)

LO

VIN

G (T

X)

WE

LD

(CO

)

KA

RN

ES

(TX

)

KIN

GFI

SHE

R (O

K)

MC

KE

NZ

IE (N

D)

HO

WA

RD

(TX

)

RE

AG

AN

(TX

)

GR

AD

Y (O

K)

UP

TO

N (T

X)

GL

ASS

CO

CK

(TX

)

WA

RD

(TX

)

DIM

MIT

(TX

)

DU

NN

(ND

)

LA

SA

LL

E (T

X)

4

Introduction | SCOOP-STACK vs. Top U.S. Resource Plays

Hz Rigs Running by County (Total U.S.)(1)

Hz Spuds Through Time

781 Hz Rigs Running

1. Hz rig count as of May 26, 2017

26%

20%

16%

13%

8%

7%6%

4% Delaware

Midland

SCOOP/ STACK

Eagle Ford

Appalachia

Williston

Haynesville

DJ

SCOOP-STACK Play second region in the country in hz

rig count at 16% of total (behind the Permian Basin).

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Act

ual

Mon

thly

Sp

ud

s

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Nov

-14

May

-15

Nov

-15

May

-16

Nov

-16

May

-17

Mon

thly

Sp

ud

s vs

. Oct

-14

Nov-14 collapse in oil pricing

38%

58%

149%

190%

180%

Midland Delaware Eagle Ford SCOOP/STACK Williston

Nov-14 collapse in oil pricing

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Horizontal Activity Update | Development Through Time(1)

1. Operator activity based on spudded wells since 2010.

Caddo

Woods

Grady

Grant

Major

Kiowa

Clay

Custer

Blaine

Dewey

Kay

Ellis

Alfalfa

Garfield

Washita

Logan

Woodward

Tillman

Carter

JacksonComanche

Greer

Noble

Wilbarger

Canadian

Stephens

Garvin

Cotton

Harper

Kingfisher

Jefferson

LoveWichita

Oklahoma

McClain

Beckham

Cleveland

Roger Mills

Foard

Payne

BaylorMontague

Archer

Hardeman

Cooke

Murray

Knox

2016-17201520142013Pre-2013

CANA Core

Hz Development has expanded dramatically over the last ~18 months as operators exploit the core

STACK and SCOOP and expand the boundaries of each, including into the Merge.

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Horizontal Activity Update | Treated Lateral Length Heat Map(1) (Ft)

1. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010.

Caddo

Woods

Grady

Grant

Major

Kiowa

Clay

Custer

Blaine

Dewey

Kay

Ellis

Alfalfa

Garfield

Washita

Logan

Woodward

Tillman

Carter

JacksonComanche

Greer

Noble

Wilbarger

Canadian

Stephens

Garvin

Cotton

Harper

Kingfisher

Jefferson

LoveWichita

Oklahoma

McClain

Beckham

Cleveland

Roger Mills

Foard

Payne

BaylorMontague

Archer

Hardeman

Cooke

Murray

Knox

< 5,0005,000 – 6,0006,000 – 7,0007,000 – 8,0008,000 – 9,0009,000 – 10,000

> 10,000

Operators have substantially increased lateral length with recent development in in core areas.

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Caddo

Grady

Kiowa

Major

Custer

Dewey

Blaine

Garfield

Ellis

Washita

Woodward

Logan

Tillman

Woods

Carter

Greer

Grant

Jackson

ComancheGarvin

Noble

Stephens

Canadian

Cotton

Alfalfa

Wilbarger

Kingfisher

Clay

Jefferson

Kay

Love

Oklahoma

Wichita

McClain

Cleveland

Harper

Payne

Murray

Lincoln

Harmon

Montague Cooke

Horizontal Activity Update | Well Performance Map

EUR vs. GOR (All Zones)

7

GOR generally increases from east to west in the SCOOP-STACK

along with reservoir depth.

Legend (Size = EUR)

100% Oil 100% Gas

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111.8

66.3

62.4

49.1

31.4

Continental

Devon

Newfield

Cimarex

Gulfport

95.9

95.5

57.2

52.7

46.3

Canadian

Grady

Stephens

Kingfisher

Blaine

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Well C

oun

t ('000s)G

ross

MB

oed

Gas (MBoed)

Oil (MBbld)

Well Count

Horizontal Activity Update | Wellhead Production Detail(1)

Production Through Time (MBoed)

Top Operators & Counties (November 2016)

81. Horizontal wells spud since 1/1/2010.

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Clay

Caddo

Woods

Grady

Grant

Kiowa

Major

Custer

Kay

Dewey

Blaine

Alfalfa

Baylor Archer

Garfield

Ellis

Washita

Woodward

Barber

Logan

Tillman

Carter

Greer

Sumner

Jackson

ComancheGarvin

Noble

Cooke

Wilbarger

Stephens

Canadian

Cotton

Harper

Montague

Kingfisher

Love

Jefferson

Knox

Wichita

Oklahoma

McClain

Cleveland

Beckham

Roger Mills

Foard

Clark

Payne

Jack

Hardeman

Murray

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E+

Oil ($/Bbl): $48.44 $49.13 $48.96 $49.25 $49.99Gas ($/Mcf): $3.31 $3.07 $2.87 $2.87 $2.89

1,998 horizontal wells were declined across the SCOOP-STACK Region (Springer, Woodford and Mississippian)(1)

– Both hydrocarbon streams forecast (wellhead oil and gas)

– Wells parsed by data quality to increase accuracy (see following page)

Economics by well generated using actual & forecast production and economic parameters above

– Capex calculated by well based on lateral length, measured depth and proppant pumped

Type curve subsets generated within each play based on well vintage, geography, performance, hydrocarbon content and completion parameters

– IP-30 and EUR based on statistical distributions (wellhead oil and gas) per pound of proppant

– Curvature (“b” factor) and final decline (“Dm”) based on average of Type 1A wells within subset

– Initial decline (“Di”) varied until IP-30 and EUR match statistical data

Type curves generated by area normalized to 15 MMlb frac’s (i.e., 7,500 ft laterals at 2,000 lb/ft)

Well Performance Analysis | Summary

Location Map

Methodology

Legend

DeclinedUndeclined(2)

Economic Assumptions

Pricing: NYMEX strip as of 5/26/2017

Differentials: ($4.00)/Bbl oil, ($0.50)/Mcf, 35% of NYMEX NGL realized pricing

LOE: $10k/well/mo. for 12 months, $5k/well/mo. thereafter (fixed) + $4.00/Boe (variable)

Gas Stream: 20-30% shrink, 90 - 120 Bbl/MMcfNGL yield

OK Taxes: 2.0% for 36 months, 7.1% thereafter

Capex: Based on public disclosure and varied by well based on lateral length, proppant, and depth

Acreage Valuation/Drill-Out (Base Case):

Rigs: 1 rig

Spud-to-Spud Timing: 30 days

Gross Acres: 15,000

Spacing: 160 acres

Location Count: 93 gross locations

Valuation: PV20

91. Horizontal wells with first production after 1/1/2010 and publicly available

production data at time of publication.2. Wells with inadequate production data to forecast reserves & economics.

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Type Area Summary (28 Areas)

1. EUR and IP data are three-stream values, normalized for 7500 TLL & 15MMlb proppant

10

Our well performance analysis buttresses results disclosed by operators in the area, with an

average EUR of ~2 MMBoe when normalized to modern completion techniques.

Threshold Oil Price

Pre-Tax Capex ($/Bbl) @ ROR of: EUR(1) IP30(1)

Area ROR ($MM) 10% 20% $M/Acre MBoe % Liq (Boed)STACK MISSISSIPPIANMISSISSIPPIAN_01 73% $6.6 $27.2 $32.7 $11 1,383 70% 1,721MISSISSIPPIAN_02 0% 6.5 62.30 72.88 0 482 76% 784MISSISSIPPIAN_03 31% 6.9 37.28 43.58 3 900 75% 1,685MISSISSIPPIAN_04 122% $7.0 $25.1 $29.3 17 1,405 77% 2,315MISSISSIPPIAN_05 72% 7.1 24.57 30.49 12 1,710 64% 2,068MISSISSIPPIAN_06 38% 6.9 29.65 37.89 3 1,437 47% 2,753MISSISSIPPIAN_07 11% 7.2 48.36 56.92 0 678 78% 1,281Average: 50% $6.9 $36.3 $43.4 $7 1,142 70% 1,801

SCOOP SPRINGERSPRINGER_01 25% $11.4 $37.1 $45.4 $3 1,376 85% 1,603SPRINGER_02 119% 11.3 23.87 28.44 33 2,262 82% 2,642Average: 72% $11.4 $30.5 $36.9 18 1,819 83% 2,122

SCOOP WOODFORDWOODFORD_01 39% $10.9 $24.9 $34.7 $10 2,756 53% 2,259WOODFORD_02 41% 10.9 NA NA 9 4,085 2% 3,107WOODFORD_03 22% 10.7 34.7 47.2 0 2,157 49% 2,046WOODFORD_04 44% 11.1 30.1 37.2 10 1,976 61% 2,566WOODFORD_05 114% 11.0 NA 15.1 28 4,451 45% 4,565WOODFORD_06 72% 11.1 15.1 23.4 20 3,676 48% 3,265WOODFORD_07 24% 11.0 NA 29.7 1 3,215 4% 2,401WOODFORD_08 22% 10.9 38.3 47.7 1 1,422 75% 1,473WOODFORD_09 48% 10.9 20.8 30.2 13 3,139 50% 2,420WOODFORD_10 39% 10.8 32.1 39.2 11 1,551 89% 1,343Average: 46% $10.9 $28.0 $33.8 10 2,843 47% 2,544

STACK WOODFORDWOODFORD_11 6% $10.6 $55.7 $68.2 $0 924 77% 1,164WOODFORD_12 3% 10.9 107.7 NA 0 1,763 5% 2,069WOODFORD_13 6% 10.7 97.0 NA 0 2,079 4% 1,541WOODFORD_14 23% 10.7 32.1 45.4 0 2,368 46% 2,384WOODFORD_15 6% 10.7 108.7 NA 0 2,033 3% 1,783WOODFORD_16 9% 11.0 NA NA 0 2,566 0% 2,030WOODFORD_17 2% 10.7 70.8 93.0 0 1,317 47% 1,372WOODFORD_18 (21%) 10.6 NA NA 0 428 48% 697WOODFORD_19 17% 10.7 38.0 53.7 0 2,157 49% 1,444Average: 6% $10.7 $72.9 $65.1 $0 1,737 31% 1,609

Total Average 36% $9.9 $44.40 $42.84 $7 1,989 50% 2,028

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Caddo

Major

Grady

Custer

Dewey

Blaine

Kiowa

Washita

GarfieldWoodward

Canadian

Kingfisher

Greer

Ellis

Woods Alfalfa

Beckham

Roger Mills

Logan

Comanche

GrantHarper

0 5 10 15 202.5

Miles

®

Geology | STACK Meramec Structure | SSTVD Feet

11

The depth to the top of Meramec increases towards Southwest. With the Nemaha ridge

supporting the Eastern shelf and the Anadarko shelf to the North, most STACK maps maintain

a similar appearance.

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Mississippian | Top Operators(1)

1. Operator activity based on spudded wells since 2010.

Caddo

Grady

Woods

Major

Kiowa

Custer

Blaine

Grant

Dewey

Garfield

Washita

Alfalfa

Woodward

Tillman

Logan

Ellis

ComancheJackson

Canadian

Stephens

Greer

Cotton

Wilbarger

Clay

Kay

Kingfisher

Carter

Jefferson

Garvin

Harper

Noble

Wichita

Oklahoma

McClain

Beckham

Roger Mills

Love

Cleveland

Foard

Payne

Hardeman

Newfield (148)Alta Mesa (128)Continental (83) Devon (78) Marathon (78) Longfellow (69)Tapstone (44)Chaparral (37)Cimarex (37)Hinkle (34)Others (177)

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Mississippian Area 1 | Summary

Location Map

Top Operators (Total Wells Drilled) Spuds Through Time

Avg. EUR (MBoe) and IP-30 (Boed)(1)

Oil Gas 1. 2-phase.

Avg. TLL (Mft) and Proppant (MMlb) Avg. Frac Density (lbs/ft)

EU

RIP

-30

ROID >2.0x ROID 1.0-2.0x ROID 0.5-1.0x ROID <0.5x

-8500-9000

-8000

-9500

-7500

-7000

-10000

-10500

-11000

-11500

-6500

-12000

-6000

-12500

-5500

-13000

-13500

-5000

-14000

-4500

-12000-11000-11500

-12500

Major

Custer

Blaine

Dewey

CaddoWashita

Woods

Garfield

AlfalfaGrant

Canadian

Kingfisher

Woodward

Grady

46 114 206 198

448 200 78

199 204

282

247 192

405 401

730

76 249

374 658 660

64

40 85

191 365

141 289

459

849

1,025

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

73

9

4

3

3

ALTA MESA

HINKLE

PAYNE

CHISHOLM

GASTAR

2

10

17 18

36

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4.3 4.3 4.3 4.8

5.4

1.8 1.8

2.8 3.4

5.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TLL Proppant

423 405

655 694

1,053

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Oil Gas (MMcf) NGL Total % Liquids

(MBo) WH Sales (MBbl) WH Sales WH Sales

IP 1,630 2,524 1,767 303 2,051 2,227 79% 87%

IP-30 1,167 2,341 1,639 281 1,557 1,721 75% 84%

EUR 538 3,568 2,498 428 1,133 1,383 48% 70%

Di 100.0% 86.5% NA NA NA NA NA NA

b 1.216 1.770 NA NA NA NA NA NA

Dm 8.0% 8.0% NA NA NA NA NA NA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 2 4 6 8 10

Cum

. Pro

d. (

MB

oe)

Years

Cum Gas

Cum Oil

1,000 MBoe

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

0 2 4 6 8 10

Avg

. Pro

d. (

Bbl

d |

Mcf

d)

Years

Oil (Bod)

Gas (Mcfd)

P99

P90

P50

P10

P1

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000EUR (MBbl/MMcf) & IP-30 (Bod/Mcfd) per MMlb Prop.

EUR / MMlb Prop IP-30 / MMlb PropMBbl MMcf Bod Mcfd

Stat. Mean 69 456 149 293P10 117 861 246 453P90 31 153 71 161Skew (P10/P90) 3.8x 5.6x 3.5x 2.8xCount 41 28 40 30

Oil48%

Gas52%

IP-3

0 M

ix

Oil75%

Gas25%

EU

R M

ix

Type Curve Parameters(1) Type Curve Profile

Statistical Distributions

Type Curve Cumulative Production

Mississippian Area 1 | Type Curve Summary

1. IP/EUR data in Bod/MBbl (oil), Mcfd/MMcf (gas), and Boed/MBoe (total). “Per MMlb” values assume 15 MMlb proppant. 14

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$9

$7

$8

$7

$13

$14

$15

$16

Spacing

Rigs

Capex

Pricing

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

An

nu

al EB

ITD

A /

Cap

ex ($MM

)

Avg

. Pro

d. (

MB

oed

)

Year

Net Prod. EBITDA Capex

EUR DetailGas Total % Liq.

Oil WH Sales NGL WH Sales SalesEUR 538 3,568 2,498 428 1,133 1,383 70%Economic (Pre-Tax) & Capex Parameters

PV-10 PV-15 PV-20 PV-25 PV-30NPV ($MM) $6.05 $4.57 $3.56 $2.83 $2.27ROR 73%Payout (Years) (Undis. / Disc. @ 10%) 1.42 1.50ROI (Undis. / Disc. @ 10%) 3.13x 1.93xBase Case $M/Acre $11.4Capex ($MM) $6.6MD (Mft) / TLL (Mft) / Proppant (MMlb) 19.6 / 7.5 / 15.0

$5.7

$2.2 $1.5 $1.1 $0.9

$6.7

$2.6

$1.8$1.4 $1.2

0 1 2 3 4

Year

Taxes LOE

EBITDA Revenue

70%

51%

49%

48%

77%

103%

106%

123%

Opex

Type Curve

Price

Capex

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

$20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00

Pre

-Tax

RO

R

Oil Price ($/Bbl)

Capex TH Price$5.60 $23.58$6.60 $27.16$7.60 $30.76

1. ROR sensitivity ranges: +/-10% for Price, Type Curve, and Opex | +/-$1MM for Capex.

2. Threshold pricing calculated by holding gas price deck at strip.

3. Upside/ Downside: Rig (2.0 /0.5), Pricing (+10%/-10%), Spacing (120ac/240ac), Capex (-$1MM/ +$1MM)

Mississippian Area 1 | Type Curve Economics

Base Case: 73%

Base Case: $11M

Single-Well ROR Sensitivities(1)Type Curve Economics Summary(1)

Single-Well Revenue/EBITDA ($MM) Single-Well Oil Price/Capex Sensitivities(2)

Drill-Out Production & FCF $M/Acre Sensitivities(3)

15

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Top Operator Detail | Continental Resources Position

Continental Resources owns one of the more premier positions in the basin including core

STACK and SCOOP along with its JV with SK Petroleum in the NE Custer/SW Blaine area.

16Hz Rigs 2016-17 Hz Permits Hz Wells Continental Resources Acreage Position

Caddo

Grady

Major

Kiowa

Custer

Blaine

Dewey

Ellis

Garfield

Washita

Logan

Woodward

Tillman

Carter

JacksonComanche

Greer

Woods

Noble

Canadian

Stephens

Garvin

Grant

Cotton

Alfalfa

Wilbarger

Kingfisher

Clay

Jefferson

Kay

Oklahoma

Wichita Love

McClain

Beckham

Cleveland

Roger Mills

Harper

Payne

Foard

Hardeman

Murray

Casillas / Continental (Aug-16)$281MM | $9M/Acre

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Top Operator Detail | Continental Operational Statistics

Spuds Through Time

Spuds by Reservoir (2010-2016) Gross Operated Production (MBoed)(2)

Avg. EUR (MBoe) and IP-30 (Boed)(1)

Avg. TLL (Mft) and Proppant (MMlb) Avg. Frac Density (lbs/ft)

EU

RIP

-30

1. 2-phase.2. Horizontal wells with first production after 1/1/2010 and publicly available production data

at time of publication.

44 50

110

92

104

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

119 220 319 354 263 475

824 679 1,023

1,592 594

1,044 998

1,377

1,855

135 306 295 458 352 467

704 518

852 1,146 602

1,011 813

1,310 1,497

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

60%16%

9%

8%7%

Woodford Mississippian Springer Hunton Other/NA 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Well C

oun

t

Gro

ss M

Boe

d

Gas (Boed)

Oil (Bbld)

Well Count

4.0 5.2

6.3 7.7

8.6

2.7 4.4

5.2

9.4

18.1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TLL Proppant

685 847 818

1,215

2,099

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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County Detail | Grady Co. Hz Activity(1)

Grady County has experienced a resurgence as operators continue developing the core SCOOP

in the southeast but also expand into Merge development in the north.

181. Hz rigs as of May 26, 2017

Grady

Caddo

McClain

Stephens

Comanche

Canadian

Garvin

Cleveland

Oklahoma

SpringerMississippianWoodfordHuntonOthers/NA

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County Detail | Grady Co. Operational Statistics

Spuds Through Time

Spuds by Reservoir (2010-2016) Gross Operated Production (MBoed)(2)

Avg. EUR (MBoe) and IP-30 (Boed)(1)

Avg. TLL (Mft) and Proppant (MMlb) Avg. Frac Density (lbs/ft)

EU

RIP

-30

1. 2-phase.2. Horizontal wells with first production after 1/1/2010 and publicly available production data

at time of publication.

692

874 936 904

1,501

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4.2 5.1

5.7 6.5

7.4

2.9

4.5 5.3

5.9

11.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TLL Proppant

68%5%

10%

11%

6%

Woodford Mississippian Springer Hunton Other/NA 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Well C

oun

t

Gro

ss M

Boe

d

Gas (Boed)

Oil (Bbld)

Well Count

161 252 385 476 358 402

577 416 616 963 564

828 801

1,092 1,321

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

155 195 326 337 257 610 665 392

709

1,709 765 860 718

1,046

1,966

45

58

119

91

64

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016