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D.greenwood, wmg future of low carbon vehicles
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Transcript of D.greenwood, wmg future of low carbon vehicles
Low Carbon AutomotiveOpportunities
Innovation Feast10 December 2014
David Greenwood
Professor, Advanced Propulsion Systems
There are many drivers for efficient transport
EnergyEfficient
Transport
Industrial Opportunity
Climate Change &Air Quality
Consumer demand
Energy Security
$
Source:Cornell University from Edwards 2001
Source:Adweek
Pathways to reduce consumption and emissions
Travel Less
Use best transport mode
Reduce vehicle mass and drag
Improve powertrain
Reduce carbon in fuel
ImproveTechnology
Manage transport network
ManageDemand
US 2025:109
EU 2020: 95Japan 2020: 105
China2020: 117
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gra
ms
CO
2p
er
kil
om
ete
r,n
orm
ali
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toN
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C
US-LDVCalifornia-LDVCanada-LDVEUJapanChina
Most markets now regulate CO2 or fuel economy
US requires 4.7%annual reduction
EU Requires 3.9%annual reduction
China proposingaggressive targets
Gradual globalconvergence of
targetsSource: ICCT
Hybridisation / Electrification works by:
Stopping engine when idling anddecelerating
4-6% FE benefit NEDC>10% in city drive
Allows engine to be used at moreefficient operating point
Smaller engines usedWith bigger motors
15% FE benefit
Captures braking energy for re-uselater
Store as electricityNot lost as heat
10% FE benefit
Allows use of electricity as primary fuelsource in place of hydrocarbons
Zero tailpipe emissionsLower CO2/km*(-10%) to 95%
* Depending on grid mix X
Engine and Motor Requirements – typical pass. car
Conventional
Mild Hybrid
Full Hybrid
PHEV
EV
Engine Motor
100kWFull transient requirement
90-100kWFull transient requirement
60-80kWReduced transient requirement
40-60kWLimited transient requirement
Starter motor only
3-13kWTorque boost and re-gen
20-40kWLimited EV mode
40-60kWStronger EV mode
REEV 30-50kWNo direct transient requirement
100kWFull EV mode
No Engine100kW
Full EV mode
But CO2 reduction comes at a price
• €30/(g/km) proven acceptable in western mass market
• Uptake of hybrids at ~€95/(g/km) breaking into early majority market
• EV’s at €300/(g/km) currently confined to early adopters
Source: Ricardo 2014
The next big opportunities for Low Carbon
• Lightweight – but at an acceptable price and production rate
• Better batteries – especially for low cost and high power/weight
• High power density e-machines
• High power density power electronics
• Exhaust gas heat recovery
Prototype vs Automotive Volume
Niche / Prototype
• Low volume
• High price
• High Performance
• High precision
• Cheap tools, expensive parts
• Little warranty
• Little liability
• Fast cashflow
Priorities
• Performance
• Reliability
• Fuel Consumption
• Cost
• Emissions ?
Automotive
• High volume
• Low price
• Moderate Performance
• High repeatability
• Expensive tools, cheap parts
• Warranty
• Liability !
• Cashflow !
Priorities
• Emissions (below threshold)
• Reliability / repeatability
• Cost
• Fuel consumption
• Performance
TRL1
• Basic principles observed and reported
• Paper studies and scientific studies undertaken
TRL2
• Speculative applications identified
• Application specific simulations or experiments conducted
TRL3• Analytical and lab studies have physically validated predictions of separate elements of
the technology or components that are not yet integrated or representative
TRL4
• The technology component and/or basic subsystem have been validated in the lab ortest house environment
• The basic concept has been observed in other industry sectors
TRL5• The technology component and/or basic subsystem have been validated in a relevant
environment, potentially through a mule or modified current production vehicle
TRL6
• A model or prototype of the technology system has been demonstrated as part of avehicle which can simulate and validate all system specifications within an operationalenvironment (e.g. test track)
TRL7• Multiple prototypes have been demonstrated in an operational environment
TRL8
• Test and demonstration phases have been completed to end user’s satisfaction
• The technology has been proven to work in its final form and under all expectedconditions
TRL9• Real world performance of the technology in end users’ hands is a success
MRL1• Basic manufacturing implications have been identified
• Materials for manufacturing have been characterised and assessed
MRL2
• Manufacturing concepts and feasibility have been determined and processes have been identified
• Producibility assessments are underway and include advanced design for manufacturingconsiderations
MRL3• A manufacturing proof of concept has been developed
MRL4• Capability exists to produce the technology in a prototype or lab environment
MRL5• Capability exists to produce the technology in a production relevant environment
MRL6• Capability exists to produce the integrated system in a production relevant environment
MRL7• Capability exists to produce the technology in a production relevant environment at full run rate
Automotive requires high proof at TRL8 and MRL6/7
Premium cars can act as stepping stone to Automotive
• Sports cars and premium vehiclesare the “early adopters” ofautomotive technology
• Volumes are lower, margins higher,and unique capabilities are valuable
• Customers are prepared to acceptcompromise to get benefits
• High volume Tier 1 suppliers aregenerally ambivalent
• And design teams are generallymore creative and more innovative
• These high profile vehicles canvalidate your product
• And give in-field demonstration ofcapability
Making it big… Scaling up to automotive volume
Tier 1 Component Manufacturer
M&A or JV
• Demonstrate technology
• Protect IP and know-how
• Get bought, or JV with Tier 1
SME
SME
Tier 1
Organic Growth
• Keep knowledge and IP in-house
• Supply small volume first
• Secure investment and grow
Tier 1 Component ManufacturerTier 1 Component Manufacturers
License Technology
• Demonstrate technology
• Protect IP
• License to Tier 1(s)
SME
Getting there – Collaboration spreads the load
• Delivering to the level of robust full vehicle demonstration takesyears of effort and £M
• Doing it alone is possible, but others can share the load and benefitfrom aspects of the project which are enablers for you
• And collaborators can become future customers or suppliers
• Funding mechanisms exist to promote collaborations
You£1M
You£500k
P1
P2
P3
You£250k
P1
P2P3
TSB/APC
The UK Auto industry is well networked and supported
Networks
Funders(non-equity)
Developers(examples)
In Conclusion
• Automotive technology is changing faster than any time in thelast 100 years – and this opens up opportunities
• Automotive industry requires high levels of product developmentand very low cost – getting there is expensive
• Collaboration shares the load – and funding bodies are there tohelp