Developments in national climate change mitigation ... · Developments in national climate change...
16
Developments in national climate change mitigation legislation and strategy mitigation legislation and strategy Based on the paper by the same title accepted in Climate Policy, 13(6) Authors: Navroz K. Dubash, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Hohne and Prabhat Upadhyaya 16/12/2013
Transcript of Developments in national climate change mitigation ... · Developments in national climate change...
Developments in national climate change
mitigation legislation and strategymitigation legislation and strategy
Based on the paper by the same title accepted in Climate Policy, 13(6)
Authors:
Navroz K. Dubash,
Markus Hagemann,
Niklas Hohne and
Prabhat Upadhyaya
16/12/2013
Efforts to track national climate policy
• Existing studies and guiding questions▫ GLOBE Study (32)
▫ What climate change legislation, regulation, policies and decrees exist in large emitting countries, and how do they compare against their past performance?
▫ Germanwatch Climate Change Performance Index (58)▫ Germanwatch Climate Change Performance Index (58)▫ How do countries compare on their climate change performance in relative terms?
▫ DB: Global Climate Change policy tracker (22)▫ What are the best in class climate and energy policy regimes and what is their
abatement potential?
▫ Climate Action Tracker� Country Assessment (2); GHG emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies (18 + EU27 as a whole)▫ What are the international climate change related pledges made by countries and
their related policies? Are these sufficient to restrict emissions to a 2°C pathway?
▫ What is the effect of most important policies on emissions?
National Climate Change Mitigation
Legislation and Strategy Survey
• Study differs in terms of: ▫ Central question:
� What national framework of climate legislation and policy is in place and how has it evolved between 2007 and 2012?place and how has it evolved between 2007 and 2012?
▫ Method employed:� Survey of all UN member states and categorization
▫ Number of countries studied (193)
▫ No assessment of stringency and benchmarking against global targets
▫ Basis for categorization:� Each country categorized as (1) formal legally binding climate strategy; or (2) political non-binding climate strategy; or (3) none of above; or (4) analysis incomplete
National Climate Change Mitigation
Legislation and Strategy Survey
• Different from existing literature:▫ Categorizes climate policy on relatively few criteria, stays away from normative efforts to judge adequacy
▫ Focus explicitly on national policies for mitigating climate ▫ Focus explicitly on national policies for mitigating climate change; Sectoral, sub-national policies not studied.
▫ Includes all UN member states. Avoids biases introduced by partial sampling
• Assessing the existence of climate legislation/policy is important for three reasons:▫ Enhance direct incentives for mitigation
▫ Mechanisms for mainstreaming
▫ Focal point for bureaucracy, NGOs and private sector
Methodology(1) Climate legislation: An act that has been passed by a national parliament, that is in force, and that includes in its title or in its
statement of objectives limits or reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This legislation may include a national climate goal, but
this is not a necessary condition. If a parliament does not exist, the equivalent government act necessary to pass legally enforceable
measures should be used as the benchmark.
Not qualifying for this category:
• If there is no single overarching act, but multiple sectoral piecemeal acts in place, then a reasoned judgement must be made
on whether these add up to a larger strategy. Normally, a single sectoral act only that includes as one of its objectives limiting
GHGs would not be counted in the absence of evidence of a larger strategy.
• An adaptation-only focused act or one that focuses on accounting for emissions alone should not be counted.• An adaptation-only focused act or one that focuses on accounting for emissions alone should not be counted.
(2) Climate strategy and coordinating body: One or more documents or statements passed by a national government to promote
climate change mitigation, but not passed by a national parliament or through any other formal lawmaking process, which includes:
• Strategy, plan or framework for climate mitigation that states in its title and/or in its statement of objectives limiting or reduce
GHG emissions. AND
• A coordinating body charged with developing and implementing the strategy, plan or framework.
Not qualifying for this category:
• If there is no single overarching strategy, but multiple sectoral piecemeal strategies in place, then a reasoned judgement must
be made on whether these add up to a larger strategy. Normally, a single sectoral strategy only that includes as one of its
objectives limiting GHGs would not be counted in the absence of evidence of a larger strategy.
• An adaptation-only focused act or one that focuses on accounting for emissions alone should not be counted.
(3)None of the above: Includes countries that were studied but where no information suggesting climate legislation or strategy as
defined above was found, even after a thorough search.
(4)Analysis incomplete: Includes countries that were studied, but where categorisation was not possible, because e.g. information
was not fully traceable, not public or in a language other than those available to the research team.
2007
Climate legislation
Climate strategy and
coordinating body
Climate legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012 (Equal area projection)
coordinating body
None of the above
Analysis incomplete
2012
Climate legislation
Climate strategy and
coordinating body
Climate legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012 (Equal area projection)
coordinating body
None of the above
Analysis incomplete
2007
Climate legislation
Climate strategy and
coordinating body
None of the above
Analysis incomplete
Climate legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012 (Equal area projection)
2012
Analysis incomplete
2007
Climate legislation
Climate strategy and
coordinating body
None of the above
Analysis incomplete
Climate legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012 (Area proportional to cumulative GHG emissions 1970-2010)
2012
Analysis incomplete
2007
Climate legislation
Climate strategy and
coordinating body
None of the above
Analysis incomplete
Climate legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012 (Area proportional to GHG emissions in 2010)
2012
Analysis incomplete
Share of countries with climate legislation and strategies
in 2007 and 2012
40
50
60
70
Number of countries
4: Analysis incomplete
3: None of the above
2: Climate strategy and coordinating body
1: Climate legislation60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Number of countries
80
100
120
140
Number of countries
0
10
20
30
40
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
LAM LAM MAF MAF ASIA ASIA EIT EIT OE90 OE90
Number of countries
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007
2012
Global Global
Number of countries
0
20
40
60
80
2007
2012
2007
2012
NAI NAI AI AI
Number of countries
NAI: Non Annex I; AI: Annex I; LAM: Latin America; MAF: Middle East and Africa; EIT: Economies in Transition; OE 90: OECD of 1990; Data drawn from EDGAR database
Share of countries with population under climate
legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012
2500
3000
3500
4000
Population covered (million)
4: Analysis incomplete
3: None of the above
2: Climate strategy
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Population covered
4000
5000
6000Population covered (million)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
LAM LAM MAF MAF ASIA ASIA EIT EIT OE90 OE90
Population covered (million)
2: Climate strategy and coordinating body
1: Climate legislation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007
2012
Global Global
Population covered
0
1000
2000
3000
2007
2012
2007
2012
NAI NAI AI AI
Population covered (million)
Share of global GHG emissions under climate legislation
and strategies in 2007 and 2012 (2010 data)
15
20
25
GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
4: Analysis incomplete
3: None of the above
2: Climate strategy and coordinating body
1: Climate legislation
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
GHG emissions covered
20
25
30
35
GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
0
5
10
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
LAM LAM MAF MAF ASIA ASIA EIT EIT OE90 OE90
GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007
2012
Global Global
GHG emissions covered
0
5
10
15
20
2007
2012
2007
2012
NAI NAI AI AI
GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
Share of global cumulative GHG emissions under climate
legislation and strategies in 2007 and 2012
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cümulative GHG emissions covered
400
500
600
700
Cumulative GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
250
300
350
400
450
Cumulative GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
4: Analysis incomplete
3: None of the above
2: Climate strategy and coordinating body1: Climate legislation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007
2012
Global Global
Cümulative GHG emissions covered
0
100
200
300
400
2007
2012
2007
2012
NAI NAI AI AI
Cumulative GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
LAM LAM MAF MAF ASIA ASIA EIT EIT OE90 OE90
Cumulative GHG emissions (GtCO2e)
Broad conclusions
• First, Significant global trend towards more climate legislation and strategies in terms of:
▫ Number of countries (23% to 39%), population (36% to 73%) and emissions (45% to 67%)73%) and emissions (45% to 67%)
• Strong regional effect visible (no of countries):
▫ Marginal change in OECD countries, Total coverage: Asia (9% to 59%), Latin America (15% to 33%); Emissions in 2012: Asia (62+34=96%), Latin America (63+13=76%)
• Non-binding approaches more prominent:
▫ Countries with legislation (18% to 21%), countries with strategies (5% to 18%)
Thanks!Thanks!
