Development of the Marine Fuel Market - An Overview · 2 Energy Systems and Marine Engineering TUHH...
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1 Energy Systems and Marine Engineering TUHH Hamburg University of Technology Prof. Dr.-Ing. H. Rulfs Hamburg University of Technology Development of the Marine Fuel Market - An Overview -
Transcript of Development of the Marine Fuel Market - An Overview · 2 Energy Systems and Marine Engineering TUHH...
1 Energy Systems and Marine Engineering
TUHH Hamburg University of Technology
Prof. Dr.-Ing. H. Rulfs Hamburg University of Technology
Development of the Marine Fuel Market
- An Overview -
2 Energy Systems and Marine Engineering
TUHH Hamburg University of Technology
Introduction
Environmental aspects
Possible alternatives to oil products
Marine fuels for shipping in ECAs after 2015
Global shipping after 2020/2025
Developments in oil refineries
Availability and prices of future LS heavy fuel oils
Summary
Topics
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Influences on Future Marine Fuel Market
• Environmental aspects
• Availability
• Costs
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Eco-friendly Ship Propulsion in 2030 ???
Quelle:KRAL
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Flow of Energy
5
Engine Tank
Microorganisms
Radiation
More than
100 million years
Heat
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• Hydrogen (1807; de Rivaz)
• Coal gas (1858; Lenoir)
• Kerosene (1873; Brayton)
• Gasoline (1885; Daimler)
• Petroleum (1893; Diesel)
• Biofuel (Peanut oil) (1898; Diesel)
• Coal dust (1899; Diesel)
• Residual fuel (1909/ 1912; MAN / Junkers)
(1948; Lamb)
History of Combustibles for Internal Combustion Engines
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Characteristics of Future Oil Market
Worldwide oil consumption will grow significantly.
Most of the oil reserves were found in politically
unstable regions.
Prices of oil products will increase substantially.
Serious conflicts are most likely.
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• What are the consequences of IMO regulations
in ECAs after 2015 ?
• Is enough low-sulfur heavy fuel oil available for
global shipping after 2020 ?
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IMO Sulfur Limits in ECAs
EC Ports 0.1% 0.1 % S
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Consequences after 2015 in ECAs
1. Majority of marine engines will burn low-sulfur marine gas oil.
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Bunker Prices in Rotterdam (September 2011) P
rice [
$/t
]
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Cru
de O
il
Mari
ne G
as O
il (L
S)
IFO
380
760
910
620
900
Around 80% of crude oil price
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Pri
ce
dif
fere
nc
e M
GO
– IF
O 3
80
Crude oil price
Additional Costs for LS MGO Operation
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Every kilowatt power consumes
Heavy Fuel Oil for nearly 3 $ per day.
( MGO: 4,5 $ / kW d )
September 2011
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Consequences after 2015 in ECAs
1. Majority of marine engines will burn low-sulfur marine gas oil.
2. On many ships heavy fuel oil can be burned, as exhaust gas
cleaning systems reduce SOx emissions by more than 90%.
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Consequences after 2015 in ECAs
1. Majority of marine engines will burn low-sulfur marine gas oil.
2. On many ships heavy fuel oil can be burnt, as exhaust gas
cleaning systems reduce SOx emissions by more than 90%.
3. LNG is an eco-friendly and attractive option for ships with
dual-fuel engines.
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IMO Sulfur Limits
0.1 % S
0.5 % S
Global
Shipping
Probably
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Relative Prices of Fuels
Re
lative
Price
s
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Cru
de O
il
100%
Mari
ne G
as O
il
120%
Die
sel F
uel
160%
Heavy F
uel
80%
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Production of Marine Fuel Oils in Modern Refineries
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Production of Marine Fuel Oils in Modern Refineries
80% + 20% IFO 180
92% + 8% IFO 380
95% + 5% IFO 480
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Residual Fuel Oil as a Percentage of all Oil Products
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
F
uel O
il / T
ota
l O
il P
rod
ucts
in
%
(BP Statistical Review 2010)
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Residual Fuel Oils in Refineries
1. The production of residues in refineries continues to decline ( Flexicoker !).
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Refinery with FLEXICOKER
Consequence:
There are nearly no residues left for the production of marine fuel oils !
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Residual Fuel Oils in Refineries
1. The production of residues in refineries continues to decline ( Flexicoker !)
2. The international marine market consumes roughly one third of all residues.
Competitors: Power Plants
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Worldwide Consumption of Heavy Fuel Oils
Shipping Power plants
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Increasing Value of Heavy Fuel Oil
Re
lative
Price
s
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 C
rud
e O
il
100%
Heavy F
uel
un
til 2005
50…60%
Heavy F
uel 2
011
80%
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Residual Fuel Oils in Refineries
1. The production of residues in refineries continues to decline ( Flexicoker !)
2. The international marine market consumes roughly one third of all residues.
Competitors: Power Plants
3. Heavy fuel oil is no more a cheap waste product.
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Options of Mineral Oil Industry to Meet Requirements of Marine Market after 2025
1. Intensified conversion of residues into distillates
2. Hydrodesulfurization of the residues
3. Processing of low-sulfur crude oils
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Hydrodesulfurization of Residual Fuels (HDS)
Requirements: - High pressures and temperatures
- High energy consumption
- Large quantities of hydrogen
- Very high capital investment (≥ 80 Mrd. USD)
Aim: - Desulfurization down to 0.5 …1% sulfur
Experience: - Few plants mainly in Asia
S
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Japanese Refinery with Hydrodesulfurization of Residues
Quelle: Shell
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Future Production of Intermediate Fuel Oils with Sulfur Contents of 0.5 %
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Processing of Low-Sulfur Crude Oils
for the Production of Intermediate Fuel Oils with 0.5 % Sulfur
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Oil industry Shipping
1. Intensive hydrodesulfurization of residues > 80 Mrd.$
2. Low-sulfur crudes (and moderate hydrodesulfurization) < 80 Mrd. $
3. Conversion of residues into distillates > 100 Mrd. $ MGO price
Options of Oil Industry after 2020/25 for Production of HFO with 0.5% Sulfur
HF
O p
rices incre
ase
by a
round 8
0 ..1
50 $
/t
Consequences for
Option No. 3 is probably the most attractive alternative for the oil industry !
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Summary
• Also during the next 30 years mineral oil products will remain the major
energy source onboard ships.
• In ECAs the use of LNG and the application of exhaust gas cleaning
systems may be attractive options.
• Local and temporary shortages of low-sulfur distillates are likely.
• The introduction of heavy fuel oil with 0.5% sulfur probably after 2025 will
lead to technical, logistic and financial challenges for the oil industry. The
bunker market will then become even less attractive than today. Several
oil companies will probably withdraw from the marine market.
• Market conditions will result in much higher fuel prices and HFO will lose
its status as a cheap energy source.
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Thank you for your attention !
Prof. Dr.-Ing. H. Rulfs Hamburg University of Technology
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Reserves-to-production Ratios
Gas
Co
al
Cru
de O
il
40 Years
70 Years
>160 Years
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Efficiency of Propulsion Systems 60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 1 5 10 50 100
Power [MW]
Th
erm
al e
ffic
ien
cy [%
]
