Development of the Biorefinery Concept (Give it time!) · Global Glass fibre Market 2010-2015:...
Transcript of Development of the Biorefinery Concept (Give it time!) · Global Glass fibre Market 2010-2015:...
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Development of
the Biorefinery
Concept
(Give it time!)
Jack Saddler
FPB/Bioenergy Group, UBC
IEA Bioenergy
Changing Directions;
Market Outlook
PwC 24th Annual Global Forest and Paper
Industry Conference, 11 May 2011
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University of British Columbia
UBC
Campus
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Forestry Sector needs Transformation
Source: PriceWaterhouse coopers, CIBC World Markets
Traditional business models
result in low ROCEs globally
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Kyoto
ProtocolY2K 9/11 Iraq
WarHurricane
Katrina
Oil Prices and World Events
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Quarterly Imported Crude Oil Price
Dollars per barrel
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2011
April 2011 Forecast
Apr 2010
Forecast
Economic
Downturn
Present
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Biorefinery: 7 Generations
Great-grandparents hoped for housing, furniture, basic
energy and sometimes “luxuries” (car, TV, fridge, washing
machine, etc)
You expect the same/better as well as packaging,
design/function, facial tissues/sanitary products,
“disposable” clothes/furniture, all at low cost
Great-grandchildren won‟t need the writing or newspaper,
but expect more of the above for less of their income.
Increased energy and “luxuries” (meat instead of rice!)
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Generational Per Capita Energy Consumption (US)
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Timelines Takes 50-90 years to grow a tree in Pacific North West
A university trained individual should be relevant for at
least 50 years
Interior of BC logging
– Main Activity started in Mid-1900‟s (significantly later than on the
Coast)
– Intensive logging for about 50 years
“Short” rotation forestry has been going for about 40 years
– Increased interest spurred by the 1970s oil crisis
How well do we know what the tree will be used for when
we plant it (Seed-to-solutions)?
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The 1960/70’s
Club of Rome
Concerns regarding unlimited resource consumption in an
increasingly interdependent world
"The Limits to Growth“
Reconcile sustainable progress within environmental
constraints
Over-population
Limited potential of agriculture and energy
“Green Revolution”
Unlimited energy; Nuclear and “limitless” oil (Pruteen)
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1940’s Increased Energy Output
http://www.craigsams.com/pages/martinradcliffe.html
Faced with labour shortages
and huge demand,
agricultural wages shot up
from 10¢ an hour to $1 an
hour. Industry profits doubled
between 1940 and 1944
EROEI Energy Returned on
Energy Invested -
KiloCalories
• Man with hoe - 20:1
• Organic Farm - 1:5
• Industrial Farm - 1:15
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Green Revolution 50’s – 70’s
1930‟s Food Shortages
R&D, technology transfer in
1950s to late 1970s
Increased in agricultural
production around the world
North America could “feed
the world”, if no “politics”
and low meat consumption
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Green Revolution
Production/area
increased
dramatically
Most prominent
shift observed in
1960s
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1970’s: Potential Protein Sources
Commercial interest in single-cell protein for animal feed
was increasing
– “But major economic, regulatory, and social obstacles still must be
hurdled before this new protein becomes a generally accepted
source of human food”
France, BP operated a 20,000 ton/yr plant that grew the
yeast Candida lipolytica on gas oil
In 1973 UK, Imperial Chemical Industries operated a 1,000
metric-ton-per-year plant growing the bacteria
Pseudomonas methylotropha on methanol and planned to
develop a major production unit by 1978.
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The IEA BLUE Map Scenario
Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate
policies
BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050 through CO2-
price and strong support policies
The BLUE Map Scenario serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps
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IEA Technology Roadmaps
Roadmaps are intended to: Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon technologies, consistent with Energy
Technology Perspectives 2010
Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term milestones, including:
Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these
Identify key conversion pathways
Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability
Identify market requirements and policy needs
Define international collaboration needs
For more information: www.iea.org/roadmaps
IEA Technology Roadmap - Biofuels for Transport Developed under consultation of industry, governmental and research institutions as well as NGOs
Workshop on feedstock availability and sustainability feeds also into the upcoming Technology
Roadmap on Bioenergy for Heat and Power (available early 2012)
Concentrated Solar Power Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Smart Grids Solar Photovoltaic Energy Wind Energy
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Forest Sector Transformation
To succeed globally, Canada‟s forestry sector needs to
transition from commodity-driven markets to
manufacturing, processing and increasing value-add
expertise
Biorefining offers higher Return on
Capital Invested
Energy: High volume, low value
product BUT large market demand
Various routes, but generally require
large facilities, large feedstock
volumes
High-value co-products are
attractive; biomaterials/bioproducts
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Wood Pellet Industry
Over the past two years, Canada (& the US) have become a
major supplier of wood pellets to Europe
– E.g. Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and UK
– Mostly used in co-firing
– US did not start exporting pellets until 2008 * now 600,000 tons in 2010
Driver: European Union 20-20-20 targets
– Increased use of wood chips and pellets
– In 2010, ~11 million tons of wood pellets were consumed
– Demand outpaces domestic production
2010 – 33 pellet plants,~2 million tonnes capacity
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Canadian Wood Pellet Exports
Source: CN 2010
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Canada’s Fuel Exports (Million Barrels of Oil equiv.)
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Investment into Biofuels WITH
Renewable Chemicals Business models attracting
investment are
increasingly looking to
leverage „biofuels
technologies‟
Companies capable of
producing renewable
chemicals cut across
multiple traditional
technology areas
Examples: Amyris, Green
Biologics, Coskata
Note: Figure for 2010 is
just first half of the year
Source: Cleantech Group
Biorefining = Biofuels + More
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Gross Market Opportunities
References:
FPAC, FPInnovations 2010.Markets and Markets. 2009.
Global Renewable Chemicals Market. The Freedonia Group. 2009. World Bioplastics. Industry Study 2548. Lucintel. 2009. Global Glass fibre
Market 2010-2015: Supply, Demand and Opportunity Analysis. Acmite Market Intelligence. 2010. World Carbon fibre Composite Market.
* CAGR for 2010-2015
PRODUCTS Global Market
Potential
(US$ billion)
Compound Annual
Growth Rate
(2009-2015)
Green chemicals 62.3 5.3
Alcohols 62.0 5.3
Bio-plastic and plastic resins 3.6 23.7
Platform chemicals 4.0 12.6
Wood fibre composites 35.0 10.0
Glass fibre market 8.4 6.3*
Carbon fibre 18.6 9.5
Revenues, Canadian forests
product industry
50.0 Neg or 0-2
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Maximizing the Value of Wood
Source: Borregaard
20011
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Domsjo – Swedish Biorefinery Example of product development strategy
Domsjo marketing material calls operations “Not a Pulp Mill”
– Develops businesss within segments relatively unaffected by oil prices
– Refines several wood based products and creates increased value
– Niche producer
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BP Energy Biosciences Institute
Announced Feb. 1, 2007
Headquartered at UC Berkeley,
with partners at University of
Illinois, Lawrence Berkeley
National Labs
$500 million for research plus
DoE and State funding to give
more than $1 billion
Aim: to develop new sources of
energy/chemicals and reduce
the impact of oil consumption
on the environment
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Largest Facility in Each Sector
1
10
100
1000
10000
Ethanol Pulp and paper
Electrical generation
Oil refinery
Esti
mat
ed
Fe
ed
sto
ck In
pu
t in
Pet
aJo
ule
s (L
og
scal
e)
Facility Type
Pipeline
Panamax
Rail cars
Trucks
Source: Stephen 2010
Comparison of feedstock energy input transport mechanism
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Biorefineries will likely resemble pulp mills, not oil
refineries
1st Generation Biofuels/BiochemicalsLocation: Agriculture-intensive regions
2nd Gen – Biofuels/BiomaterialsLarger scale
Forest based
Coastal Regions
“Advanced” Biorefineries (Algae)TBD
Scale of Facilities & Location
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Moving Forward
Emerging technologies are being developed and promoted
by players outside the traditional industry – the traditional
industry is generally responding, not leading.
Forest companies need to develop partnerships with
new players
– Building on the “bio-refinery platform” – imperative to develop and
market higher value products (e.g. biomaterials) that offer a more
sustainable advantage, “energy/plus”
– Need “market knowledge”, gained through partnership
– We know the “seed-to-mill”
– Need to evolve to “seed-to-success”!
– Think mid-to-long term and collaborate!
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Acknowledgements
Jana Hanova, Warren Mabee
FPB/Bioenergy Group, UBC
IEA Bioenergy Task 39
IEA HQ Colleagues
Bioenergy & Refining Initiative
(BERI) at UBC
Colleagues and collaborators
Questions?