Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus ...
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Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723
Dr Maria Zachariou dodou
National Technical University of [email protected]
DOHA 6 December 2012
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Project Target : a strategic plant for adaptation
Will climatic changes effect the Region and how?
What are the existing Policies ?
Are there any Nation or Regional adaptation plants in place?
What are the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus
What are the measures taken and what sectors will be most vulnerable?
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FIRST STEP Review the observed climatic
changes and Predictions
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Glacier National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge August 1941 (left) and August 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004) 1941-
observed changes to climate worldwide
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Mediterranean and the Middle East
Regional Climatic models shows that Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by
Decrease in precipitation increases in the frequency and intensity of droughtsIncrease temperatureIncrease hot weather conditions Increase in sea surface temperatures
Warming Levantine Basin at average rate 0.065oC per year. Mediterranean have been rising about twice as much as those of
the global oceans)
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sea surface temperature (SST) 1996-2011.
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Future Climate– RR Decrease in precipitation
strongest drying is expected in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa: ‒10% to 25% in 2010-2039‒ ‒20% to 35% in 2040-2069‒ ‒30% to 50% 2070-2099. ‒
Turkey and the Caucasus may become
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Future Climate– Increase temperature
JAA
The regional warming will be gradual 1-3°C in the near-future (2010-2039)
, 3-5°C in the mid-century period
3.5-7°C by the end of the century
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PRESENT Hot days S-EMME, such are common occurring up to 5 months/year (Gulf region).
FUTURE TX>35oC, S-ΕΜΜΕ are expected to face severe warm conditions with 2 months additional of hot days/year
Future Climate Increase hot weather conditions
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Future Climate– Increase hot weather conditions
DJ
F
JA
A
highlights the exceptional warming expected in the EMME region.
minimum average temperature will increase
minimum temperature
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Decrease precipitation in Cyprus Annual average precipitation (mm) year 1901-02 till 2007-08
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Decrease precipitation in Cyprus annual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005
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Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first
Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first
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Increase temperature annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in Nicosia Pashiardis, 2011
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SECOND STEP Existing national and regional
adaptation strategies
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Existing national and regional adaptation strategies worldwide
58 national strategies on adaptation to climatic change (13 NAPs and more than 45 NAPAs) have been overview to identify countries that
have developed adaptation strategies and share the same challenges and characteristics with
Cyprus
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Finland
France
Spain
Malta
Tunisia
Adaptation plans examinedFocus on Mediterranean countries
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Cyprus: Similar challenges and characteristics
Mediterranean basin. Water stressrely heavily on the desalinationarid and semi-arid areas Decrease in precipitationCoastal erosion - (large coastlines) (coastal economic
development)Energy: Increase energy requirements /Malta and Cyprus
are highly energy dependent countries / oil imports Tourism: ( increase in temperature ,/heat waves. Forests: increased forest fire risks Agriculture (declined)
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A Strategic Plan should be in conformity with the policies
WHAT ARE THE EXISTING POLICIES?
WHAT ARE AIMING?Within the scope of the project the worldwide and
The European policies related to climatic changes and adaptation were examined and
assessed
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Policies related to climatic changes are Aiming to
Mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (primarily focused in the past) and to
adapt to the adverse impacts of climate in order to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems.
All policies outlined were examined and assessed in relation to the adaptation strategy to be developed in Cyprus
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Existing policies on climate change worldwideUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Rio de Janeiro 1992( foresees that all contracting parties Develop appropriate and integrated plans for
adapting to the impacts of climate change Take into account f climate changes into the national
policies) Montreal ProtocolKyoto Protocol –Japan 1997 (reduce their GHG emissions)
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Existing policies on climate change worldwide
Nairobi Work Programme 2006 ( to support action towards climate change adaptation )
Bali Road Map 2007.(Bali Action Plan, structured upon five pylons , (i)
shared vision, (ii) mitigation, (iii) adaptation,(iv) technology and (v) financing
Cancún agreements Mexico 2010.commitment for a maximum rise of 2oC / diffusion of
new innovative climate-friendly technologies /establishment of a “Green Climate Fund”
Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011 Extend the Kyoto Protocol /New reduction agreement
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EU Legislation and policies
EU legislation on climate is rather vast and it is mainly focused on to the following areas:
Greenhouse Gas Monitoring and Reporting EU emissions trading system Effort sharing decision Carbon capture and storage Transport/Fuels Ozone layer protection Fluorinated gases
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EU Legislation and policies
the European Climate Change Program (ECCP).
(2000-2004) second ECCP (2005EU Climate and Energy Package2007
Other Complementary legislation:Green and White Paper on adaptationGreen Paper “ Forest“Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine
Issues” (2009) document
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Legislation and policies examined “Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine Issues”
(2009) document(accompanying White Paper)White Paper “Together for Health: A strategic
approach for the EU 2008-2013 (2007)Green Paper “ Forest protection and information in the
EU: preparing forests for climate change
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the
European Union” 2007 “Halting the loss of biodiversity 2010 – and beyond (2006
EU Integrated Maritime Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006 European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-2010
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EU Legislation and policies examinedMarine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in Europe
(2002/413/EC)Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC Floods Directive [2007/60/EC
Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC, sets annual emission limits for 2020 to each Member
State ranging from -20% to +20% compared to the 2005 levels,/ Cyprus allocated reduction target of 5%.
-Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIV
ERABLE1.3.pdf
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Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to Climate
change for the main economic sectors of Cyprus
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Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacityImpacts = sensitivity X exposure
Sensitivity degree to which a system is affected by climate changes, exposure is the degree to which a system is exposed to climate changes and
their impacts
Principal aim was to identify the relevant
key impactsAdaptation measuresIdentify Indicators relevant to each
sector.
Although there were no sufficient data to evaluate all indicators an attempt was made to asses the vulnerability
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Assessment of impacts
based on their magnitude, timing, distribution, persistence and reversibility of impacts
Indicators (Sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) are evaluated on a 7-degree scale ranging from “none” to “very high”.
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Water resources, Soils,Agriculture, Forests, Tourism Coastal zones, Biodiversity, Energy, Fisheries and aquaculture, Public Health, Infrastructure11 sectors
Assessment of vulnerability
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Main Climatic FactorsIncrease in temperatureDecrease in precipitationIncrease in frequency of extreme events
heat waves hail droughts Floods
Increases in CO 2Increase in atmospheric O3Sea level riseResult in most severe impacts in Cyprus
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Vulnerability was assessed for the following impacts
WATER RESOURCES Water availability (High) Water quality (moderate to High) Floods Increase in frequency of Droughts (High) AGRICULTURE Crop yield (Moderate High) Soil fertility Pests and diseases (not evaluated) Damages to crops from extreme weather events
(Moderate) Livestock productivity (not evaluated) Costs for livestock catering (not evaluated)
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Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories
TOURISM Warmer summers (moderate) Warmer winters Heat waves Water availability (Moderate Storms, waves and floods Biodiversity attractions Coastal erosion FORESTS
Dieback of tree species, insect attacks and diseases (High) Fires (Moderate)
Floods, wind throws and storm damages Forest growth (not evaluated)
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Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categoriesSOILS
Soil erosion (by wing and/or rain water) (Moderate Landslides Contamination (heavy metals, nitrates, phosphates, al
saturation) Soil Stalinization - sodification Desertification (High)
FISHERIES Quantity and diversity of fish stocks (not evaluated) Fish stock physical environment (not evaluated) Cost implications for fishermen (not evaluated)
INFRASTRUCURE Infrastructure damage due to floods (Urban Sea Floods) Infrastructure damage due to landslides (not evaluated)
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Vulnerability was assessed for the following impactsBOIDIVERSITY
Distribution of plant species in terrestrial ecosystem (M)Distribution of animal species in terrestrial ecosystem (M)
Marine biodiversity (not evaluated)COASTAL ZONES
Coastal storm flooding and inundation (not evaluated) Coastal erosion (Moderate Degradation of coastal ecosystems (not evaluated)ENERGY
Renewable energy yield Efficiency of thermal power plants; and Demand for electricity and cooling/ heating
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Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories
PBULIC HEALTHDirect impacts: . Deaths and health problems related to heat waves and high
temperatures, (Moderate Deaths and injuries from floods/storms, Deaths and injuries from landslides and Deaths and injuries from fires. Indirect impacts: Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases, Water- borne and food-borne diseases, . Climate-related effects upon nutrition, Air pollution related diseases. http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIV
ERABLE1.2.pdf
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examples
Assessment of Overall vulnerability to Climate change for the main economic sectors of Cyrus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in Cyprus to climate changes
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to climate changes
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus to climate changes
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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THANK YOU
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EXAMPLE Assessment of the vulnerability
of Water Resources
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Relationship between observed climate changes and IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR
Increased temperature Increased water temperatures Increase in evaporation Increased evapotranspiration
Increase in surface water temperature Increased algae growth ( eutrophication /loss of fish) Prolonged lake stratification / depletion of oxygenSalinisation of water resources
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Relationship between observed climatic changes andIMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR
Decreased precipitation, including increased droughts Decrease in runoff Reduction Water availabilityLower replenishments rates (lower groundwater
levels) More widespread water stress Increased water pollution and deterioration of
water qualityDecreased rates of groundwater recharge Stalinization of coastal aquifers
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Relationship between observed climate changes and IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR
Increase in heavy precipitation events Flooding
Adverse effects in quality of surface water and groundwater
Contamination of water supply Lower replenishment rates in the
aquifers of the mountain areas due to steep slopes
Sea level rise Stalinization of coastal aquifers) Flooding of infrastructure
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MEASURES (ADAPTIVE CAPACITY) _WATER RESOURCES
Cyprus although have not developed a Strategic plan for adaptation ,the fact that is experiencing a water shortage for the last 40 years, obliged it to implement policies and measures to alleviate the problem
Measures to increase water availability Measures for the diversification of water resources
utilizationMeasures to decrease water demand Measures for the protection of water quality Measures for the protection from floods Measures for the protection from droughts
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MEASURES _WATER RESOURCESIncrease the Supply of Water Resources
Construction of dams – dam capacity increased from 6 MCM in 1960 to 307 MCM today (No dams 107)Installation of conveyance system to transport
water to poorer water resources areasGround water exploration – drilling of
boreholes for domestic and irrigation usesConstruction of Recharge worksUse of non-conventional water resources
(desalination, recycling water)Secure a safe yield from the storage reservoirs,
taking into account consecutive years of droughts
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57Integrated Water Management- COST 19Coimbra Sept 2007
Reduce and Regulate Demands• efficient conveyance and distribution
systems (leakage detection, minimize losses, tele-monitoring, telecontrol)
• Metering of water services• improved on farm irrigation systems (drop
irrigation)• water saving devices• Quotas (Restriction of the amount of irrigation water)• Limited duration of water flow to the users• Increase water charges (rising tarrifs) (to recover
cost of WS but not the cost of irrigation water) (charge over use)
• Establish subsidies (BH, grey water use)Undertake campaigns for water conservation
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Measures to Implement a sustainable water use: Re-assessment of the water resources, quantity) Re-evaluation Water Demand Water resources allocation Redistribution of water resources
Measures against droughts (additional) Raising awareness for sustainable water use, Notification of users for consumption reduction, Increase in desalinated water production, Intensive controls of abstractions and leakages, Limits to the abstractions from dams, Releases from dams only for river ecosystem protection (not for
irrigation)
Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacity Impacts= sensitivity X exposure INDICATORS
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in Cyprus to climate changes
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More examples
Assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to Climate change for the main economic sectors of Cyrus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to climate changes
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector in Cyprus to climate changes
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Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus to climate changes
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Overall vulnerability assessment of biodiversity in Cyprus to climate changes
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Vulnerability of Sectors for main Impacts
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in Cyprus to climate changes
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to climate changes
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector in Cyprus to climate changes
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Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus to climate changes
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
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Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
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Overall vulnerability assessment of biodiversity in Cyprus to climate changes
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the coastal zones of Cyprus to climate changes
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Overall vulnerability assessment of the energy sector in Cyprus to climate changes
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Annex I: Vulnerability scores
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Assessment of past responses to adapt to the adverse climate change
impacts in Cyprus
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WATER RESOURCES
Cyprus although have not developed a Strategic plan for adaptation ,the fact that is experiencing a water shortage for the last 40 years, obliged it to implement policies and measures to alleviate the problem
Measures to increase water availability Measures for the diversification of water resources
utilizationMeasures to decrease water demand Measures for the protection of water quality Measures for the protection from floods Measures for the protection from droughts
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AGRICULTUREMeasures to reduce risk of drought and water scarcityMeasures to reduce risk of reduced crop productivityMeasures to reduce increased agricultural pests,
diseases, weeds Measures to reduce risk of extreme weather events Measures to reduce risk for livestock .COASTAL AREAS . Measures to reduce erosionMeasures to reduce risk from coastal storm flooding
and inundationImplementation of Integrated Coastal Zone
Management Framework
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ENERGY Measures for increasing energy supply Measures for reducing energy demand
FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE Measures for strengthening the capacity of fishermen Measures for the diversification of aquaculture
SOILS Measures to improve soil moisture Measures to improve soil fertility Measures to reduce coastal erosion Measures to reduce soil contamination Measures to reduce soil Stalinization
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FORESTS Measures against dieback of tree species, insects
attacks and diseasesMeasures against forest firesPUBLIC HEALTHMeasures to prevent heat mortality and morbidity Measures to control vector- and rodent- borne
diseases Measures to control food – borne and water-borne
diseasesMeasures to control air-pollution related diseases INFRASTRUCTURE Measures against flood damage Measures against landslide damage
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TOURISM Measures against decreased tourism during summer
months Measures against coastal erosion Measures against heat waves Measures against drought and water scarcity . Measures against deterioration of biodiversity attractions. BIODIVERSITY Measures for the conservation of biodiversity Measures for the protection of threatened species Fauna species Measures for controlling invasive alien species
GAP ANALYSES To identify additional measures
http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIVERABLE2.3.pdf
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Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse impacts in Cyprus CYPADAPT
LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723
http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIVERABLE2.4.rar
Development of a database consisting of adaptation measures applied worldwide
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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Rio de Janeiro 1992
Montreal ProtocolKyoto Protocol –Japan 1997 Nairobi Work Programme 200Bali Road Map 2007Cancún agreements Mexico 2010. Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011
.(Bali Action Plan, structured
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EU Legislation and policies Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006 European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-
2010
Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in
Europe (2002/413/EC)Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC Floods Directive [2007/60/EC Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC
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EU Legislation and policies examinedthe European Climate Change Program
(ECCP).(2000-2004) (elements for the implementation of
the Kyoto Protocol )and second ECCP (2005) further reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions EU Climate and Energy Package2007 ( energy
targets for 2020, the so-called "20-20-20" targets )Other Complementary legislation:Green and White Paper on adaptation( lays down
the observed and expected impacts of climate change in Europe / suggests that action should be undertaken)