DEVELOPING THE PHILIPPINE NATIONALLY DETERMINED...
Transcript of DEVELOPING THE PHILIPPINE NATIONALLY DETERMINED...
DEVELOPING THE PHILIPPINE
NATIONALLY DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTION (NDC)
Flordeliza M. Andres, Ph.D.
NDC Consultant – CCC-UNDP Low Emission Capacity
Building (LECB) Philippines Project
“Collectively shaping our NAMA for the Building Sector”
- CCC – Phil. Green Building Council Conference
21 November 2017
Sofitel Philippine Plaza
Outline
• NDC Context
• NDC Process
• INDC vs. NDC (tentative) targets
• Mitigation Options / Energy Efficiency
• Implementing and Financing the NDC
• Summary & Way Forward
Phil. INDC submitted-
Oct. 2015
PA adopted at UNFCCC COP 21 -Dec. 2015)
Entered into force - Nov. 2016)
President Duterte signed Instrument of Accession to the PA - Feb. 2017
Phil. Senate concurred in the Accession -March 2017)
PA Entered into force for the Philippines -Apr. 2017
1st NDC Due by 2020
Update NDC every 5 years
Paris Agreement – NDC Process Timeline
170 of 197 Parties to the UNFCCC have ratified the Paris Agreement Including the 10 ASEAN countries
Multi-stakeholder Forum on NDC Sectoral Targets (July 2017)
Updating of Adaptation and Mitigation Actions & Targets (Aug. – Dec. 2017)
Drafting of NDC (Start Q4 2017
Sectoral Action & Financial Planning (Start Q4 2017)
Stakeholder consultations to revisit INDC
Mainstreaming of NDC in national/sectoral planning & budgeting processes
Paris Agreement – Goals & Key Provisions
Long-term temperature goal - Limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C
Adaptation - Enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change through support to developing countries.
NDC/Mitigation – All Parties required to submit “nationally determined contributions” (NDC), which must include domestic mitigation measures,
Climate Finance – Developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation.
International Frameworks
National Context
“AWIT-FE”: Agriculture, Waste, Industry, Transport, Forestry, Agriculture & Energy
Phil. NDC Goal & Priority Areas
Climate-Resilient Low Carbon Development
Adaptation
Ecosystem-based
Adaptation for Water and Food Security
Sustainable Forestry
Climate Resilient
Agriculture
Resilience of the Built
Environment (Infrastructure, Buildings, etc.)
Mitigation
Sustainable Energy & Transport
Climate-Smart Industries &
Services (Greening
Industries , Waste
Management)
GOVERNANCE/CLIMATE FINANCE
Adaptation• Adaptation is a priority
• Financial resources, technology transfer and capacity building support are needed for the following priority adaptation measures:
• Downscaling climate change models, climate-scenario building, and climate monitoring and observation;
• Mainstreaming climate and disaster risk reduction in national and local development plans, programs and projects;
• Developing climate and disaster-resilient ecosystems
• Systematic transition to a climate and disaster-resilient social and economic growth; and
• Research and development on climate change, extremes and impacts for improved risk assessment and management
Loss-and-Damage• Ensure that Loss & Damage are minimized to ensure achievement of development goals
Mitigation• GHG emission reduction of about 70% relative to the business as usual scenario by 2030
• Mitigation actions will come from the energy, transport, waste, forestry and industry sectors; implementation conditional on the financing, including technology and capacity building support to be received from developed countries
• Reduction of emissions is conditional on the extent of financial resources including technology development and trasfer, capacity building support to be made available to the Philippines
Philippine INDC- Salient points
Proposed NDC Adaptation & Mitigation Actions[1]
• Energy Efficiency (Residential/Commercial)
• Renewable Energy/Other Clean Energy
• Vulnerability Assessment/Resiliency of Energy InfrastructureENERGY
• Improving Road Transport efficiency
• Promotion of Mass Transit Systems
• Shift to cleaner fuels and vehicles
• Greening Logistics and Aviation/Maritime Transport*
TRANSPORT
• Energy Efficiency/Fuel switching (Energy-intensive industries)
• Energy Efficiency/HFC Substitution w/Low-GHG RefrigerantsINDUSTRY
• Solid Waste Management
• Wastewater Treatment (Domestic and Industrial)WASTE
• Forest protection and Management
• Forest Restoration and RehabilitationFORESTRY
• National Color-Coded Agricultural Guide Map (NACCAG)
• Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA)
• Climate-Resilient Agriculture (CRA) Practices
• AMIA (Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture) Villages
• Climate Investment Program for Agriculture and Fisheries
AGRICULTURE
[1] Based on the NDC Multi-sectoral Forum, July 2017 Adaptation or A/M actions in blue font
INDC vs. NDC Mitigation Targets – All Options
INDC: 70% reduction vs. BAU scenario (2000-2030)
NDC (Tentative): 67% reduction vs. BAU scenario (2010-2030)
Data Sources: INDC : Phil. INDC, 2015; NDC (Tentative): CCC/USAID CBA Study, 2015
0 50 100 150 200 250
IncreaseGlassCulletUse
HomeLigh ngImprovements
Rail(MassTransit)
NREPOcean
NREPBiomass
CementWasteHeatRecovery
Conges onCharging
EnergyEfficientStreetLigh ng
NREPSolar
EnhancedBusServicesincludingBRT
MSWDiges on
MethaneRecoveryfromSanitaryLandfills
DriverTraining
HomeApplianceStandards
NREPSmallHydro
Compos ng
MethaneFlaring
MotorVehicleInspec on
Eco-EfficientCover
BiodieselBlendingTarget
JeepneyModerniza on
NREPWind
NaturalGasforCoal
BiomassCo-firinginpowergenera on
CementClinkerReduc on
BiomassforCementProduc on
NREPLargeHydro
NREPGeothermal
Biofuels
ForestProtec on
ForestRestora onandReforesta on
Philippine INDC Mitigation Options
Priority options only – 40% reduction from BAU
All options: 70% reduction from BAU scenario
Cumulative mitigation potential (in MtCO2e), 2000-2030
Source of Data: CCC/Philippine INDC, 2015.
INDC – Energy Sector
MITIGATION ACTIONS - INDCCum. Mitigation Potential, 2000-
2030 (MtCO2e)
ENERGY 265.1
Priority Options 242.9
Renewable Energy (NREP) 181.8
Natural Gas 24.1
Biodiesel Blending 20.1
Energy Efficiency 16.9
Additional Options 22.2
10 % Savings from Energy Efficiency 6.2
Heat Rate Improvement in Power Plants 4.5
Renewable Portfolio Standards 4.1
Shift to Clean Cook Stoves 4.0
System Loss reduction 3.1
50% SPUG generation to RE 0.3
Energy Efficiency – CBA Study
MITIGATION
OPTIONS DESCRIPTION/ASSUMPTIONS
Home lighting
improvements
By 2020, switching to more efficient compact fluorescent and
light-emitting diode (LED) technologies.
• Moratorium on sales of incandescent, linear fluorescent, and
circular fluorescent lightbulbs for use in residences. The
measure starts in 2020.
Home appliance
standards
By 2020, widespread switching to more efficient home appliances
• switching from both CRT and non-CRT televisions to highly efficient LED and liquid crystal display (LCD) models;
• introducing efficient refrigerators, freezers, and fans; and deploying efficient split and window air conditioning units.
Energy Efficiency
in Buildings*
Buildings comply with Building Code
Source: USAID/B-LEADERS (2015). Cost-Benefit Study of Mitigation Options
Energy Efficiency – CBA Study
MITIGATION
OPTIONS DESCRIPTION/ASSUMPTIONS
Energy Efficient Street Lighting
By 2025, 100% of street lamps (on- and off-grid) switch to more efficient lighting technology
• high-pressure sodium (HPS) or
• LED lighting technology
Energy
Efficiency in
Buildings*
Buildings comply with Building Code
*Potential Option
Mitigation Potential – Energy Efficiency Options
DATA SOURCES CCC/INDC USAID Study,
2015-2030 USAID Study, 2010-
2050 ADB Study 2010-
2050
MITIGATION OPTIONS
Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)
Share
Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)
Share
Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)
Share
Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)
Share
Energy Efficiency 16.9 6.4% 2.6 5.8% 115.3 8.5% 182.2 4.6%Home Appliance Standards 10.1 3.8% 1.7
3.8%81.3
6.0%156
4.0%
Refrigerators - 80
Air-conditioning Units
- 40
Electric Fans 21 TVs 15
Home Lighting Improvements
2.0 0.8% 0.3 1% 9.0 1% 26 1%
Energy Efficient Street Lighting 4.8
1.8%0.6
1%25.0
2%
Proposed for NDC - Energy Efficiency
• Energy Labeling For six (6) products:
• aircon (window & split type),
• refrigerators,
• compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs),
• linear fluorescent lamps,
• circular fluorescent lamps,
• fluorescent lamp ballasts
• Minimum Energy Performance Standards
(MEPS) Covers three (3) products:
• aircon (window & split type),
• compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs),
• linear fluorescent lamps
Proposed for NDC* - Energy Efficiency
• Government Energy Management Program
(GEMP)
• Deferred capacity from energy savings reached 2,547 MW
(2015-2016)
• Policy Development
• Implementing guidelines on the Philippine Energy
Standards and Labeling Program (PESLP)
• Directing Compliance of Commercial, Industrial and
Transport Establishments with the Philippine Minimum
Energy Performance Program
*By the DOE at the NDC Multi-stakeholder Forum, July 2017
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mitigation Options
2010-2050 GHG baseline
scenario
Sector integration
Non-energy GHG reductions with
mitigation options
Cost-benefit of mitigation
Non-energy cost and co-
benefit analysis
Energy security & employment
benefits
Monetized health co-benefits
SECTORAL OVERSIGHT AGENCIES
GHG abatement potential & MACC for all sectors
CCC / NEDA
Sector Analysis: Agriculture, Waste, Industry, Forestry
Economy-wide Integrated Analysis Co-benefits
Source: CCC/USAID B-LEADERS ProjectLEAP- Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system
Non-EnergyTransportEnergy
Assessing GHG Impact of Energy Efficiency
Source: Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT). 2017. Buildings Efficiency Guidance (Draft)
Global Climate Finance in Context
Source: UNFCCC. Report of the Standing Committee on Finance to the COP22
The estimated cost of energy actions in INDCs is USD 1.1 trillion a year (IEA), less than 1/3 of the annual requirement for total energy investments, but is already 1.5 times the average global total climate finance ($714 bn) in 2013/2014.
• Mitigation activities accounted for an average of 93% of climate finance between 2015 and 2016, of which, 74% was for renewable energy generation.
• However, energy efficiency has overtaken renewable energy as the major focus of mitigation investment by the public sector, increasing its share from 24% during the 2013/2014 period to 35% for the 2015/2016 period (CPI Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2017)
Catalyzing Climate Finance for the NDC
Source: United Nations Development Programme. Catalyzing Climate Finance: A Guidebook on Policy and Financing Options to Support Green, Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Development. April 2011
Catalyzing Climate Finance for the NDC
Way Forward for the NDC
• Adaptation – integration of plans with NDC
• Mitigation options and GHG reduction targets
▪ Prioritization
▪ Sectoral GHG targets/Economy-wide goal
▪ Conditionality?
• Implementation/Transition Planning
▪ Green jobs & safeguards for affected sectors
• Financial Planning
• Development of project pipeline
• MRV Systems
• Institutional arrangements and linkages
Country Overall GHG Emission Reduction TargetUnconditional/ Conditional
Component
PhilippinesReduce GHG emission by 70% by 2030 relative to BAU scenario of 2000–2030,
Entire 70% conditional
IndonesiaReduce GHG emission by up to 41% by 2030 relative to BAU level from 2010 to 2030
26% unconditional by 2020, additional 12% conditional by 2030
MalaysiaReduce GHG emission intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 relative to 2005 base year;
35% unconditional, 10% conditional
ThailandReduce GHG emission by 45% by 2030 relative to BAU level for 2005-2030
20% unconditional, 25% conditional
VietnamReduce GHG emissions by up to 33% compared with BAU and reduce emission intensity of GDP by 20% relative to 2010
Unconditional – 8% GHG emission reduction and 20% reduction in emission intensity of GDP relative to 2010; Conditional -additional 17% emission reduction by 2030
China Peak emissions by 2030 or earlier andreduce emission intensity of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030 below 2005 level
No mention
IndiaReduce emission intensity of GDP by 33% to 35% by 2030 compared with 2005
Unconditional and conditional
USA 26-28% below its 2005 level by 2025 No mention
Mitigation Targets in Some INDCs
THANK YOU!